Big Ten Bowl Picture (10/27)
Now that we're 2/3rds through the season, wanted to check in on the Big Ten's bowl picture and possible landing spots. Given the Big Ten is in the last year of our current contracts, there are a fair amount of limitations on teams.
Already Bowling (7): Ohio State (8-0), Penn State (8-0), Minnesota (8-0), Wisconsin (6-2), Michigan (6-2), Iowa (6-2), Indiana (6-2)
TBD (3): Michigan State (4-4), Nebraska (4-4), Illinois (4-4)
Highly Unlikely (4): Maryland (3-5), Rutgers (2-6), Purdue (2-6), Northwestern (1-6)
2019 Bowl Tie-In Hierarchy:
- College Football Playoff: Phoenix, Arizona or Atlanta, Georgia
- Rose Bowl: Pasadena, California (B1G Champion if not in the Playoff; otherwise, highest ranked non-playoff team)
- Orange Bowl: Miami, Florida (B1G goes if the second highest ranked non-playoff team is ranked higher than all non-playoff/Sugar Bowl SEC teams and Notre Dame)
- Cotton Bowl: Dallas, Texas (at-large bid selected by playoff committee to go to highest ranked P5 team remaining when all other NY6 tie-ins are already accounted for; will play highest ranked Group of 5 team)
- Citrus Bowl: Orlando, Florida (no Michigan, Penn State or Minnesota if possible due to contractual obligations)
- Outback Bowl: Tampa, Florida (no Michigan, Iowa or Wisconsin if possible)
- Holiday Bowl: San Diego, California (no MSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin or Minnesota if possible)
- Taxslayer Bowl: Jacksonville, Florida (no Iowa or Penn State if possible)
9/10. Pinstripe Bowl: New York, New York (no Indiana, Iowa, PSU or Wisconsin if possible)
9/10. Redbox Bowl: Santa Clara, California (no MSU, Nebraska or Indiana if possible)
11. Quick Lane Bowl: Detroit, Michigan
12. Armed Forces Bowl: Fort Worth, Texas (very unlikely to fill this spot unless B1G only gets two teams in the NY6 including the playoffs)
Possible and Feasible Landing Spots:
- Ohio State: Playoff, Rose Bowl, or Orange Bowl
- Penn State: Playoff, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl
- Minnesota: Playoff, Rose Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl (if Minnesota misses the NY6 they're almost a lock for the Outback Bowl)
- Wisconsin: Rose Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Citrus Bowl, Taxslayer Bowl
- Michigan: Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Taxslayer Bowl
- Iowa: Rose Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Citrus Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Redbox Bowl
- Indiana: Citrus Bowl, Outback Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Taxslayer Bowl
- MSU: Taxslayer Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl
- Nebraska: Taxslayer Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl
- Illinois: Taxslayer Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Redbox Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl
Michigan's Full Breakdown:
- If we finish 10-2: Orange or Cotton. Hopefully Orange, but depends on SEC rankings. Would suck to play a Group of 5 team like SMU in the Cotton, no upside (especially if it's SMU in Dallas, their home city). Very, very small chance at Rose, but highly unlikely. Rose scenarios are, in order of probability: 1) 13-0 PSU in the Playoffs AND the West champion is NOT a 12-0 Minnesota. 2) 12-1 OSU in the Playoffs AND a 9-3 PSU that loses three of its last four games AND the West champion is NOT a 12-0 Minnesota. 3) 13-0 Minnesota in the playoffs AND a 9-3 PSU that loses three of its last four games
- If we finish 9-3: 99% lock to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego
- If we finish 8-4: Most likely still the Holiday Bowl in San Diego, UNLESS Indiana defeats us and finishes with 8+ wins AND/OR if Iowa finishes with 9-3 with their final loss coming @Wisconsin. If not Holiday, we'd be in the Taxslayer.
- If we finish 7-5: Probably the Redbox Bowl, maybe the Pinstripe Bowl. Reason being that at least one of IU/MSU will very likely pass us in the order and contractually the Redbox can't take MSU, Nebraska or Indiana leaving them with few options.
- If we finish 6-6: Quick Lane Bowl
October 27th, 2019 at 2:42 AM ^
All I got from this is that if we win out and OSU makes the playoffs as a one loss team then we're going to Pasadena baby!!
/WPOPE
October 27th, 2019 at 2:44 AM ^
Not that simple unfortunately.
11-1 Penn State with a loss in Columbus is still possible in that scenario and would 100% go to Pasadena over us.
Even a 10-2 Penn State also probably goes over us, given their head to head win.
12-1 Minnesota is possible too and also very likely goes over 10-2 Michigan.
October 27th, 2019 at 2:52 AM ^
Is this just based on CFP ranking? Because I don't see how we wouldn't rocket up the polls if we win out. We'd be certainly ranked higher than a one loss Minnesota and could be ranked higher than Penn State even if they just lose to OSU. You get a lot of credit for beating OSU
October 27th, 2019 at 2:56 AM ^
The CFP Rankings are not nearly as momentum based as AP/Coaches. The CFP committee also has a track record of dropping teams after Championship week if they don't play.
In a very applicable example: in 2015 they ranked 12-1 Iowa above 11-1 Ohio State, sending the Hawkeyes to Pasadena after losing to MSU in Indianapolis. And that's a 1 loss reigning National Champion Buckeye team that lost their only game by 3 points to a playoff bound team. I don't find it likely 2 loss Michigan is treated better than a 1 loss OSU by the CFP Committee in what would be a very similar situation.
If Penn State goes into Columbus 10-0 (fresh off back-to-back ranked wins over Minnesota and Indiana, assuming IU beats Northwestern and is 7-2), they'll be ranked in the Top 5 at a minimum, probably even the Top 4 given one of LSU/Bama will have a loss by then, and won't drop much at all for losing a true road game to what will be probably the #1 or #2 national seed at the time.
On the other hand, Michigan will have a hard time entering The Game higher than around #10. We probably will not play another ranked team before the Buckeyes. And we could be even lower, especially if ND/Iowa lose more games. We aren't jumping from 12 to 6 just because we beat OSU, especially if Penn State and Wisconsin teams with H2H wins over us are sitting in between and also win on 11/30.
But anything is possible I suppose.
October 27th, 2019 at 9:18 AM ^
The UM-OSU game - in AA - will be a lot closer than many think. A lot depends on how both finish (of course) and OSU keeping Fields healthy. We could possibly pass PSU in the rankings when all is said and done. Was really impressed with the UM toughness and was really surprised on how ND just seemed whipped and quit - especially after the blocked punt didn't go their way.
On a side note, man MSU sucks, and sucks really bad. Bye, bye Dumbtonio. Actually, we might want to hope he sticks around. Man, they're horrible.
October 27th, 2019 at 4:56 AM ^
10-2 PSU would not get in over us if we win out IMO. We'd have a win over OSU to finish the season. PSU will have lost to OSU and likely Minnesota. "Good" losses but still, a win over us at home would be all they have. They'd be finishing the season what? 2-2?
October 27th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
We need Minnesota to beat Penn State and one of Iowa or Wisconsin to beat Minnesota. 12-1 OSU is a playoff lock with the bad loss by Oklahoma and Oregon not having any quality wins. The only way OSU doesn’t get in is if a 13-0 LSU beats an 11-1 Alabama. No way in hell a 10-2 Penn State, 10-2 Wisconsin, or 11-2 Minny get in over Michigan coming off a win over OSU. Rose bowl gets to make their own choice and it’s about brand and money.
October 27th, 2019 at 2:52 AM ^
The safest bet for a 10-2 Michigan to get to the Rose Bowl is for Penn State to be in the playoffs, leaving Ohio State with two losses.
This is also the best scenario qualitatively because A) Fuck Ohio State and B) James Franklin would get blasted in the Playoffs which would be quite entertaining.
October 27th, 2019 at 2:56 AM ^
Citrus bowl and outback bowl aren’t going to pass up a 9-3 Michigan team. Wherever we go, just win a damn bowl game for once.
October 27th, 2019 at 3:31 AM ^
I guess the Citrus I could maybe see taking us...but they also could probably choose a 9 win Wisconsin with a H2H win over us. Badgers would be close to equally attractive, plus they haven't been there in this contract period. And Badgers have been to both Outback and Holiday, so Citrus is their best option if they aren't in the NY6. I really can't see it unless the Badgers are in the NY6.
For the Outback it's a similar thing with Minnesota. Plus, the Outback isn't really that much more prestigious than the Holiday Bowl. I'd personally much rather play the 3rd best PAC 12 team than the 6th best SEC team.
October 27th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
What would the breach-of-contract penalties be for both (a) Michigan and (b) either the Citrus Bowl or Outback Bowl if Michigan were to go to one of those bowls, despite the Big Ten's contractual obligations that would preclude Michigan from playing in either of those bowls this season?
October 27th, 2019 at 6:49 AM ^
We will be playing Florida in a Fruit themed Bowl...
Most likely Peach or Citrus, but maybe Orange if things fall in place.
October 27th, 2019 at 8:24 AM ^
Awful, the Holiday bowl is a 3rd tier bowl and even if we lose a close game to OSU we will be going to such a small bowl game.
October 27th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
Except you’d be in San Diego and not Jacksonville or Orlando. That’s a win you take.
October 27th, 2019 at 3:04 PM ^
And playing Oregon or Washington or even USC would be an interesting matchup for once.
October 27th, 2019 at 8:46 AM ^
All this conversation makes me even more mad about last weeks game because had we played last week like last night? This conversation would be about How we make the Final Four not a good bowl game..
October 27th, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
Hey Niko! It’s Roman. Let’s go bowling!
October 27th, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^
If we can win out, I don’t really care which bowl game we get. A mediocre bowl game would be annoying and reflect missed opportunities, but that momentum and a win over OSU could finally turn the narrative. Harbaugh and the team both need a strong finish to show we can do it.
October 27th, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^
October 27th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
CBS Bowl Projections B1G Ten
Bowls
Fiesta Bowl - Ohio State vs. Clemson
Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. Oregon
Gator Bowl - Michigan vs. Miss. State
Citrus Bowl - Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl - Minnesota vs. Texas A&M
Redbox Bowl - Nebraska vs. Arizona State
Holiday Bowl - Iowa vs. Washington
Pinstripe Bowl - Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State
Quick Lane Bowl - Louisville vs. Indiana
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions
October 27th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
Mississippi State will finish, at best, 6-6 (already have 5 losses and still play Bama). There is no way in hell 9-3 or even 8-4 Michigan plays 6-6 Miss. State, unless he's assuming we lose three more which is dumb in and of itself.
The major outlet predictions are bad for the non-NY6 bowls at this point.
October 27th, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^
How the hell do you have PSU 13-0 as most probable if we got 10-2? Ohio State is gonna destroy them.
October 27th, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
Beware a forced G5 Cotton Bowl matchup against App State. You know they will do this in a second if they get the chance.
October 27th, 2019 at 5:28 PM ^
So .... the Holiday bowl. Not sure I saw that in year 5 - but hey. Is what it is.
October 27th, 2019 at 5:38 PM ^
It was the Quick Lane bowl a couple of weeks ago.