Best class in the B1G at the moment by many measureables
yes, we are ranked higher in the 247 composite even after Zach's commitment to OSU, but it is not just because of our class size
Michigan's current average in the 247 composite = .9037
Top 15 recruits average .9289, OSU's 15 man class averages .9257
Top 18 recruits average .9224, PSU's 18 man class averages .9212
so basically we have the best class currently, plus took additional lottery tickets with some 3-stars that will work themselves out one way or another
December 19th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
I like this post- I was looking at top 100 and 200 recruits in each class and we match up really well
December 19th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^
I like this class but I liked the class last year too. This class has some really high-ceiling guys and some guys who can step into the 2-deep next season and contribute and that's big. Getting a big, skilled outside WR is huge as well.
Last year's class had some projects but you know what? Some of those sleepers work out and I really like Aidan Hutchinson, McGrone and several more. Hutchinson was dominant in the all-star game last year and has already cracked the 2-deep. Don't forget the German young man either... he's a raw, athletic talent. Speed and raw strength can't be built... they either exist or not and I trust this staff to develop raw talent. The less scouted a kid is, the less we know what to make of the "rankings" and as was pointed out on this blog -- the consolidation of the scouting industry / recruiting industry will lead to more "unknowns". I place trust in Harbaugh and others to develop those "unknowns" into scrappy, top-level players. Guys who play with heart all the time, every time -- like Devin Bush, who we will badly miss.
Michigan State was doing it with less heralded guys for the past decade-plus and now it is our turn. If you get MSU-level heart and "piss and vinegar" and motivated guys with more routine, more voluminous high-end talent which we are capable of, then the future is bright and we can overcome a lot and be in contention every year.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
MSU has a ceiling based on their talent - this conference and division is getting tougher and deeper and tougher to win finishing 6th or 7th in the conference in recruiting
December 19th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
I agree but we scouting / development count for something. This young man Kenny Willekes was a NOBODY on the 247 Composite as of the class of 2015. Offers from MSU, West Mich, Minnesota, Wayne State, etc. 6-3, 225 pound linebacker.
He was 1st team all big ten defense this year. As a listed 6-4, 260 DE.
I want Michigan to recruit high-talent, high-character kids but in the event they want to take on projects and lighter-scouted young men, I have no problem with it. "Tweeners" can become STUDS in the right system and under the right guidance. There is a reason they're missed by the big scouts and recruiting industry.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
Don't forget losing a RB commits to Rutgers and a DL prospect to Illinois doesn't help. I still don't get those losses.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
Julius Welschof's back flip on skis is pretty freakin sweet.
It's even better than Wisconsin's Olive Sagapolu's backflip.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
The Wisconsin lineman looks really slow. Do not want.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
MSU was "doing it" while we had RichRod/Hoke and PSU was gutted by scholarships. Lesser talent wins when the better talent has no guidance at the top. This new B1G East is going to be murder for them.
December 19th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
Dantonio is about to start looking very ordinary as a coach. The mirage that he had built MSU into an elite level program is becoming more and more evident with each passing season. The rationalizations coming out of RCMB should be amusing to read.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
Don't sleep on Vansumeren either. He was an excellent H.S. receiver. I can't wait to see him catching the ball out of the backfield or wherever they line him up.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
So you're saying that, in 1-2 years, we'll improve to losing to OSU by only 20 points?
[that's a joke; ease up]
December 19th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
Lol. OSU can and will be beaten in near future. They had an all-time great coach and were coming off an all-time insane level of recruiting. For them to not even be in the top-15 in terms of classes this year, even with a smaller class, has to be stunning to them.
December 19th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^
Not really. This class has a lot of good talent in it and has a higher rating than Michigan's class, quality over quantity. OSU has what, three 5* commits? We'll be just fine. This class was going to be smaller anyways and we aren't losing much to the NFL so.. That makes for a stacked 2019 team. Clemson makes it work with classes at or under 20 recruits.
December 19th, 2018 at 5:21 PM ^
This is a reasonable take. It should not have been neg'd just because it's written by a Buckeye fan.
December 19th, 2018 at 6:16 PM ^
But it isnt reasonable when their 15 recruits average less than our top 15 recruits.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
I refuse.
You just made me divorce my wife.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:09 PM ^
The next three guys after the top 18 are Zach Carpenter, Jack Stewart, and Mike Sainristil.
Sainristil is a fantastic athlete that can play on both sides of the ball, and Jack Stewart never got a bump because he never participated in a single camp.
This is a VERY good class. On par with 2016.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
Jack Stewart is a lot like Andrew Stueber ... both are from the top public high school football programs in CT, both were two-way players with a mean streak, and also good all around athletes with high academics. If these guys played football in Texas, they would have been 4-star recruits.
December 19th, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^
Exactly. You expect the 4's and 5's to come in and make an impact immediately. Some of the 3's develop into starters and exceed the higher rated players. Watch Van Sumeran in the next year or 2. Same with Sainristil. He'll end up on O, too small to play DBack at next level, even in slot. A 3 star now, but watch out, kid can flat out play. Best part, he doesn't have to play next year, can learn and develop.
Ranking classes on signing day is like Mel Kiper giving NFL draft grades the day after. Grade them 2-3 years out, then you know.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
Aren't you actually saying we are first by just one measurable but at multiple sample sizes? You seem to be relying on just a single (univariate) statistic, not multiple metrics (or "KPIs"). Just sayin'
December 19th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
Good numbers.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
So if you remove all of the lowest ranked recruits from Michigan's class, its class has the same average player ranking as OSU's full class with all its lowest ranking recruits not removed? Interesting way to frame it.
December 19th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
Ohio isn't going to rule Texas like they used to. Sorry. Urban was the catalyst there and now A&M and U-T are taking back their territory. Will be much tougher for y'all going forward.
You're simply not looking at that same level of sustainable success going forward and you know it.
Now, whether that matters in the B10 remains to be seen. Might be able to continue to skate through with less raw talent. We'll soon find out.
December 19th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
Not sure what any of that has to do with anything I posted about or the OP posted about?
December 19th, 2018 at 3:24 PM ^
Michigan’s top 15 commits average out better than Ohio State’s current 15 commit class.
Are you dense? Or just plain stupid?
December 19th, 2018 at 7:00 PM ^
Well, if true, we'll just have to lock down Ohio again, like Jim Tressel did. You remember how that went, don't you?
December 19th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
Exactly, Michigan could cut its 12 lowest rated guys and still have a better class than OSU
December 19th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
I guess it depends on how fast UM is willing to process out the lottery tickets that aren't winners. Way back in the day, before Harbaugh became head coach, mgoblog members were almost universal in their scorn, derision, and disgust for programs like Alabama (and, though there was never very much evidence to support it, supposedly OSU) that processed under-performing players. It wasn't The Michigan Way. Michigan wins with Integrity. These aren't just football players, they're students who are part of the Michigan Family.
Of course, that was all bullshit. As soon as Harbaugh stopped returning phone calls from verbal commits he soured on and started processing players in greater numbers than Urban Meyer ever dreamed of, it's all "This is how it's done in modern college football", and "The kids know the score, they know what they're getting into, if they want to go to a major program this is what it's going to be like". Until finally you log on one day to people celebrating the idea that you can take flyers on almost half of your class and just consider them lottery tickets, because if they don't pan out you can just send them on their way and use the spots a year or two down the road.
One thing's for sure, you can't believe that taking 12 extra 3 star players is a good thing AND believe that players shouldn't be processed if they don't pan out. Those are incompatible beliefs. If you take 12 lottery tickets every year, that's 48 in a 4-year window. That's over half the roster. The only way it works is if you're making sure that a sizable number of them get medical redshirts, transfer, or quit. Which didn't used to be okay in these parts, but it's not like UM has a monopoly on hypocrisy, either.
December 19th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^
Michigan is not taking (and eventually processing) 12 'extra' guys per class.
The number 12 is just the difference between M (27) and OSU's (15) class sizes right now.
The majority of that difference of 12 is down to OSU's class being about 7 short of their target.
Another part of that difference is down to Michigan's 2018 class being a bit small (7-5 resulted in M missing on several guys at the end last year) and, therefore, M having a few more slots available this year.
December 19th, 2018 at 3:08 PM ^
Are we talking about from an averages standpoint? If so, that would make sense. You're weeding out the numbers that would drag the average down.
December 19th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
Shocking amount of people unable to understand.
December 19th, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^
Yeah, you're weeding out the numbers that would drag it down.
If this Michigan class had to be at 15 and not 25 or whatever it is, you'd have to remove 10 players. Who would Michigan lose? Would they start at the top and lop off Dax Hill and Zach Charbonnet? Or would they look at three Guard-like humans in Rumler (.9380), Barnhart (.8942) and Carpenter (.8976) and make a tough decision? It's not perfectly accurate to say they'd keep the higher rated guys, as they probably couldn't give two shits about 247's composite. But they're losing the lesser of the three and we might as well assume 247 has some idea of what they're doing.
Would Michigan cut out Dax Hill or Quinten Johnson?
Jalen Perry or DJ Turner?
I'm happy to have them all, but if we had a smaller class, we'd take the best we could get. For argument's sake, that more or less would look like the top end of this class. It's not a perfect comparison, but it's not ridiculous either. I understand it looks like cherry-picking from Michigan fans removing low scores that hurt the average, but it's also the logical way Michigan would trim the class if we had to compare apples to apples numbers-wise.
OSU has room left? Is that the case? I'll bet that gets filled by February with less-heralded guys as Day uses his available scholarships to take a chance on some long shots. And those will drag down OSU's average because they've already got the best 15 they can get.
December 19th, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
But what's the point of this comparison if you're not also removing the same percentage of lower rated players from OSU's class? If you remove all the outliers from one and none of the outliers from the other, and then run a comparison based on the averages, what do you expect to happen?
December 19th, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^
We're removing Michigan players because we're trying to match OSU's class size for a direct comparison. There is no reason to remove OSU players.
If you want to somehow determine who the next 10 "takes" would be and ADD guys to OSU's haul, that'd be the other alternative. But it's easier to trim a known entity down to 15 than make up 10 fictional Buckeyes.
December 19th, 2018 at 5:04 PM ^
It is simple. The top 15 of Michigan is just slightly better than the top 15 of OSU (at least based on 247 ratings).
Further, there is no possible way that Michigan adding an additional 12 guys (to make 27 total) can be a negative in any way. It can only be a positive, as some of those 12 will be important contributors, with 1 or 2 ending up as all big ten level guys.
Stated another way: Michigan will surely get some positive benefit out of the 12. OSU will get no such benefit because it has only 15 guys.
It is what is it. All of the uncertainty over Meyer's future, and then hiring an unproven guy in Day, meant that OSU's normally top 5 level recruiting dropped off.
OSU ended up with 3/4th (maybe just 2/3ds) of a recruiting class. It is pretty good 3/4th (or 2/3ds) of a class, given the HC situation.
Nonetheless, 3/4th of a class is not as good as 4/4ths of a class, especially when compared to Michigan's sightly better 3/4ths + 1/4th 'extra.'
December 19th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
OSU's class is pretty good, considering the circumstances. But it is (1) well below the kinds of classes Meyer was pulling in, (2) currently much smaller than they ideally would have wanted, and (3) lost some key flips at the end.
Given the smaller than desired class size, OSU may try to add a few unsigned 3 stars before February, which would pull down the average.
December 19th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
It makes perfect sense. Michigan's top-end talent is equivalent to OSU's incoming guys, and we have a bunch of extra "project players". Those guys either pan out or leave - making room for (hopefully) another class with top talent matching OSU's and... you guessed it... more project guys.
All that said, OSU's class isn't up to their usual standards (for obvious reasons) and this is one of Michigan's better classes. In order for this to work, we need to (1) process guys who don't work out, and (2) continue to match OSU's talent with our best 15 or 20 guys. The former seems likely, but the latter remains to be seen.
December 19th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
Yes. It is interesting. If we were strapped for scholarships and only had 15 available spots, we'd probably take the best 15 guys we could get, like OSU did. Not the worst 15, or the middle 15, or a random 15. We'd take the top guys.
Take your time with it. It's a lot to chew on.
December 19th, 2018 at 4:27 PM ^
If I said to you:
"Hey Ohio State, would you like to keep you entire current class as-is, plus add 10 more 3 stars of your choosing to that class as a hedge just in case?"
Would you take that deal?
Fuck yeah. Of course you would.
Well, that's Michigan's class. It's Ohio State's entire class at the same star level, plus 10 extra 3 stars thrown in, because you never know who turns out.
Michigan has a better class than Ohio State, period. No matter how you look at it.
December 19th, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
No, I wouldn't. Scholarships are finite. 10 projects in 2018 reduces your ability to land non-projects in '19, '20, and '21. If OSU didn't find 10 kids they wanted to sign in 2018, I'd rather bank those extra scholarships to use on 4 stars for the following year, or in the event a Justin Fields becomes available, rather than committing them to project 275 pound DTs from Cleveland until 2022. 41% of Michigan's class are 3 star recruits. 55% are outside the top 300. Compare that with the 31% of OSU recruits that are 3 stars and the 44% outside the top 300. The problem with spending money on lottery tickets is that you can't spend that money on something else. Excuse the bagmen pun.
December 19th, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^
OSU's unusually small class this year can only work out well if Day is able to pull down the same number of 4/5 stars that Meyer did. If that happens, then in theory Day can have a very large class next year that also has very few 3 star guys.
But it is very, very unlikely that Day is going to pull down the kind of classes that Meyer was able to pull down.
Much more likely: Day will be able to gather 15-17 4/5 star guys in the 2020 cycle, and then will fill out the rest of his class (including the banked scholarships from the 2019 cycle) with 3 star guys.
Why is this so? Because Day is not Meyer. Meyer is in the argument for one of the very best CFB coaches ever. He could pull down high 4 stars from all over the country because those guys wanted to play for a Meyer, a proven legend.
Can Day do that? Seems very, very unlikely. He's not going to have terrible classes. But he is not Meyer and, therefore, will not have Meyer level classes.
December 19th, 2018 at 5:28 PM ^
Ohio State ain't banking 10 scholarships. They will fill in some slots with low 3 stars - because that's all that's available - between now and February signing day.
Party's over.
Ohio State will still recruit well. Very well. There is no doubt about that.
But they won't keep out-recruiting everybody in the entire nation except Alabama. That was all Urban Meyer.
That was proven today. Mr Battle said as much on his way out the door.
I typically support what you post over here, but you're pissing into the wind on this one.
December 19th, 2018 at 6:08 PM ^
Agree.
Meyer had OSU recruiting in the no. 2-6 range.
The best that can be reasonably expected from Day would be the no. 7-12 range.
December 19th, 2018 at 7:09 PM ^
I disagree with the idea that OSU's going to add much more to this class. In fact, I'd be shocked if they ended up 20+ recruits in February. I'd be ultra shocked if they got to 27 like Michigan. It appears OSU is probably going to take lottery tickets on an OL or two, and potentially a CB. They will also save a spot for a transfer QB. If OSU wanted to fill up the class with low 3 stars, they would have been courting them all last month. They weren't. They're content to work on 2020.
Of note, the 2019 class has always projected to be small, and always lacked the oomph and momentum of the last two classes (and the 2020 class), and this was well before any Urban Meyer-related uncertainty cropped up.
December 19th, 2018 at 9:40 PM ^
Agree.
They might see whether there are 1-3 decent fits from the guys that have not yet signed LOIs.
The small size of the class is really baked into the 4 month period of uncertainty over who would be OSU's HC going forward.
I had read that OSU was targeting up to 23 this cycle, depending on various factors.
December 19th, 2018 at 5:21 PM ^
The buckeye doth protest too much, methinks.
December 19th, 2018 at 7:04 PM ^
Well, unless I wake up and it's 1992 tomorrow, I think I'm not worried about it.
December 20th, 2018 at 6:33 AM ^
December 19th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^
Imagine what our recruiting would be like if / when we start getting to the playoffs. The fact we can get a kid like like Daxton Hill out of the south - who's basically never seen Michigan beat an OSU team that doesn't have an interim coach - is amazing.