Behind Enemy Lines
I was listening to local radio here in Columbus yesterday afternoon and heard Common Man(one of the hosts of the afternoon show) say regarding The Game, that he didn't know how good we were after the first 3 weeks of the season based on our schedule(fair opinion). He said that we are in fact good and even went as far as to say we may be better than OSU right now and that scares him. Just thought I would share this as it has been awhile since we made them nervous. Granted we have things to clean up and work on, but I just wanted to share this as this gives me some satisfaction in that we are making them this nervous just a few weeks out.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
Make them one dimensional especially if Henderson is not 100% … get Stroud panicked and he becomes very average… no doubt we can run the the ball on them … still think some JJ packages haven’t been put on film !!!
November 1st, 2022 at 2:10 PM ^
Generating pressure on the QB isn't really our strength this year, though.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
I think Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to believe him. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Michigan jerseys is a good start.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
I'm in columbus as well. I've notice a few nuggets from him that show they are thinking about UM. Last week they got off on a tangent that "Michigan is the only team that could straight up beat osu and teams like psu would need to use some sort of gimmick or have fluky things happen". Really went on to discuss how UM has the horses to match up guy for guy. It's the first time they've talked like this in forever.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
I think there is still a talent gap, especially in terms of depth. Let's hope all Michigan's pieces stay healthy.
My concern is that Michigan is running out of time to get comfortable throwing the ball intermediate to deep, and to get McCarthy experience and more comfortable reading coverages, especially when they change after the snap (which is supposedly something the Buckeyes love to do this year). I do hope the coaching staff is going beyond relying on beating Rutgers and Nebraska with the run game.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
Feels like we’re in a sticky spot where JJ needs the reps to get a better feel for the long ball, but when they don’t hit, the games have been close enough to have to drop back into the run game while it’s working.
It’s a combination problem though; JJ is expected to hit those throws, but his receivers aren’t doing a great job of giving him a chance. He’s only getting 2 or 3 opportunities a game at best, and often they’ve been contested, low percentage chances at that.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:17 AM ^
They were nervous in 2016 and 2018 as well. In they case of the former they had reason to, in the latter, not so much.
The only thing I’m sure of this year is that a number of frustrating, UM-oriented, narratives will be on the back burner in the buildup to The Game, and for that I am grateful.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
Beat Rutgers.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
Obviously, we'll roll Rutgers but the Illinois game makes me just a little nervous - A LITTLE.
As for the OSU game, I'm also curious on why many of our fans still consider the OSU defense soft? Their front 7 (actually 6 t times with 2 LBs) looks totally different this year and that's by design with their new DC and staff. They'll cheat a safety - or two - to stop the run and have basically done a really good job this year.
I do think we'll be able to run against them but nowhere near what we did last year. I think JJ wins this one for us with the final being something like UM 31 - OSU 28
November 1st, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
I don't know that I'd consider them soft this year, but I have several reasons why I don't think they're as prepared for our run game as they need to be.
1. They've simply yet to play an offense like ours, and likely won't before we matchup. Your defense can be amazing, but if you run into the thing you can't stop for the first time in The Game, that's not gonna end well (see us and facing an Ohio State team that could pick on our 3rd DB in 2018).
2. The few teams that do bother to run the ball like we do have had more success than you'd like to see if you're Jim Knowles. Penn State, as we know, isn't superb on the ground but they still got over 100 yards and also threw the ball for almost 400 yards. They're more balanced than us, but their biggest issue on offense was turnovers, not moving the ball. They couldn't move the ball on us.
3. Finally, Knowles is a good DC but I think his scheme and philosophy are more geared towards passing teams than smashmouth teams. They're primarily a 4-2-5, that likes to use 3 safeties every play to keep their options and ability to disguise coverage open. This was born from being in the Big XII and ACC while he's been a DC. Also, Ohio State is always more concerned about teams in the CFP than B1G opponents because of where they set their goals, and being able to beat Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, etc. is more important to them than matching up with say Michigan State, because they should be able to do their thing and win the B1G without much fuss. This leaves their defense with a weak spot, run first teams. And again, they can't really test their defense before we play because no one else on their schedule plays like we do. So they might have a glaring schematic issue that is never tested till we play. That's not great.
Now, could they absolutely shut us down and force us to spread it out and sling the ball around? Sure, I could see that. But there's just no real world examples to point to that we'll have trouble on the ground against a team that last year couldn't stop a play even when they knew exactly what was coming.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
J,
"the biggest issue on offense was turnovers"... This is exactly what contributed to the last two Bucks games. Iowa committed six (6) turnovers, and Penn State committed four (4). In both games, the turnover ratio was "+4" in favor of the Buckeyes. As a point of reference - the turnover ratio for Michigan against Iowa was zero, and against Penn State was "-1". So, in those two common opponents - the "net" difference between the Bucks and Michigan's execution was nine (9) turnovers in the two combined games.
Ball security is always important, and from my perspective, it's part of the reason Michigan schemes its offense the way it does.
Now, a question from this is - did the Bucks "force" the turnovers, or were they the result of mistakes by the opposing offense?
November 1st, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
Versus Iowa was it definitely unforced errors. Against PSU seemed half were forced. I'd consider the tipped passes that led to INTs a forced opportunity like knocking a ball loose, but, also like a fumble, pretty much pure luck to actually catch it and end up with a pick 6.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
Every team so far this year outside Indiana has refused to stack the box against UM which shocks me with UM run first offense. Teams must see something on UM offense tape to keep them from stacking the box. Every team keeps playing 2 high safeties. And it have feeling OSU might do the same. Cause their secondary is the weakest part of their whole team. If they leave secondary on islands. Bell, Wilson or Schoon will be open and JJ will be able to hit them for quick 8-10 yard gains.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
I've noticed this too. The Buckeye Huddle guys, and now some more national voices like Joel Klatt are wondering if we can throw well enough to keep with the Buckeyes. But I just keep thinking "if we couldn't throw, teams would be stacking the box on us". We know this because they did it to us last year. Penn State and everybody else was throwing caution to the wind and trying to stone us at the line of scrimmage last year. But now they don't.
And like you said, you can criticize McCarthy at your keyboard all you want, but if you were the DC the week you're playing Michigan, are you risking your reputation and season on daring him to throw? Because Indiana is the only team reckless or maybe ballsy enough to try it and they got shredded to the tune of 300 yards.
If I had to guess, Ohio State treats us like everyone has, 2 high safeties, treat the passing game honestly and try your best to be disciplined with run fits and hope your offense can take ours of its comfort zone.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
I think we are as good as OSU. We are able to just impose our will on teams using the ground game. My concern with OSU however is how fast they can score. If our defense isn't able to stop them and we fall behind, this "python offense" wont work. Can UofM shift to a different strategy if they need to play catch up?
Our offense works great....until it doesn't. Then, what is the adjustment? I think that's what everyone is waiting to see.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
21, great question about the offense's adjustments. One thing appears clear on the other side of the ball, and that is - Michigan's defensive halftime adjustments seem to be on the mark.
Your point of how effective Michigan's O will be in Columbus is fair, and we'll need to wait and see how effective the O's quality of execution is.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
I think until now, we haven't had to rely on JJ's arm. In that game, due to OSU's high powered offense, they're going to HAVE TO let JJ take some shots. I can't remember JJ havin a passing attempt that really stretched the field in the last 5-6 games.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
Totally agree. JJ will have to play a big role in this game. We'll have some success running the ball, but will need a balanced attack in this game.
My biggest fear is falling behind early as that OSU offense can put up bunches of points in the blink of an eye. We cannot fall behind in this game by more than one score
November 1st, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
As discussed yesterday, Gerdman is a good indicator of their nervousness: when Michigan plays at this level he isn't as funny and usually attributes our success to a weak schedule.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
If Michigan’s offensive line can control the line of scrimmage like it did last year, it’s going to go a long way towards determining the outcome. That is the best way to beat this OSU team. Ground the defense down into a fine powder, tire them out and keep Stroud, JSN, Harrison Jr and Henderson off the field.
There’s reason to believe they can do it again. But they will have to play their best game of the year, once again.
If the defense can keep everything in front of it, make Stroud dink and dunk down the field, take away the big play over the top and make them execute long drives that eat up clock, that’s going to help, too. Make them settle for a few field goals.
Only thing I’m truly concerned about on the defensive front is that it’s very unlikely Michigan will get a lot of organic pass rush in this game. There is no Hutch or Ojabo that will immediately collapse the pocket on their own and force Stroud into making quick decisions. Minter is going to have to devise some very creative blitzing schemes and hope like hell they can get home before Stroud has time to throw, because if he has time to get that ball out, that’s could be bad news bears.
OSU will not be lacking for motivation this year, but then again, neither will Michigan. You have to believe that while both teams are experiencing pressure to win this thing, there is infinitely more pressure on OSU to win. The one downside to OSU winning as much as it has is that it’s not used to and doesn’t know how to handle losing. If Day loses this game two years in a row, he’ll be tied down to the first train out of Columbus and sent packing, and he knows it.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
"there is infinitely more pressure on OSU to win."
The idea that Harbaugh doesn't feel any pressure to avoid going 1-6 against OSU is ridiculous.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^
Come on, Don. When did I say that Harbaugh isn't feeling any pressure in this game? Of course he is. But to say Day shouldn't be feeling any pressure to not be the first OSU coach in over two decades to lose back-to-back games against Michigan is ridiculous as well.
Day is dealing with a fanbase (particularly the contingent that grew up during the Tressel/Meyer years) that not just expects to beat Michigan, but expects the game to be a beatdown/cakewalk/playoff tuneup for OSU every year. If Day loses two years in a row, particularly with this kind of offense that he has running, there will be a lot of questions from within Columbus about whether or not he's "the guy" or if he has the necessary intensity to win this game like Meyer and Tressel had before him.
I don't think many people will be calling for Harbaugh's job if he loses this game. As long as its nota blowout where Michigan just doesn't look like it belongs on the same field. If Ryan Day loses this game, blowout, close game or otherwise, he's going to get a lot of John Cooper comparisons and hordes of fans who want him gone.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
It's going to be another 42-39 barn burner this year. Hopefully Michigan comes out on top. I certainly like our chances.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
I know the popular opinion is that OSU is a Death Machine that we should be excessively scared of; that we should be wondering if we match up well enough with.
Fuck that. Last year was a sea change in attitude from Michigan. The fear of big games is no longer present, they are now looked forward to. Going into the game in previous years the team itself was filled with dread and worried about how things would go. Last year they knew they were equal and wanted to prove it. This year they know they're at least as good, and (I suspect) they're going in with the attitude of 'beat me if you can, but you're going to have to fucking EARN IT'.
I don't care how good OSU is, or that the game is played in a giant truck stop. Michigan is every bit as good as OSU, and - I believe - actually better. This isn't you're Dad's Michigan football team.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
Maybe your Granddad's? Bob Timberlake led the Wolverines to victory in Columbus back in 1964.
Go Blue!
November 1st, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
"or that the game is played in a giant truck stop."
It's a truck stop where this stuff happens. OSU won't be our only opponent in a place we haven't won in since 2000.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
Is this official part of the "regular" officiating team for games at the Shoe?
November 1st, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
Still feels like OSU has another gear UM can't quite reach but I am infinitely more optimistic about going to Columbus this year than the last time they did in 2019. That's good enough for me.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
Can't help but get the feeling that Nov. 26 is gonna be another - can't put ourselves in a position to let the refs take it from us games. Need to win by 24 or more.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
I hope that the Bucks don't listen to the radio - and, the players on the team KNOW they will beat Michigan - with great confidence that the addition of Knowles has fixed everything on their D - and, that their O is unstoppable with far improved OL play, an incredible receiving corps, and RB's that ooze with talent and speed.
Every opponent garners my respect. And, I do expect improved performance and focus from the Bucks. So, have their lines "improved"? I'll say, yes - they have. Is there D "better"? I'll say better against the pass. Have those position groups and the team (as a whole) improved their quality of execution to easily handle Michigan? I don't think so.
It has the potential to be a great game on the 26th - and, it's one that I'm looking forward to watching.
As for the Maize & Blue - things could be a bit better. Timing on passing routes could be stronger. I don't think JJ had his "best" day against the Spartans, and the deeper routes need to hit with a bit more frequency. Can Michigan's DL apply pressure with four and hurry Stroud? Is Michigan's OL strong enough to create space for Corum and Edwards? Will Corum / Edwards have the same impact as Haskins did last year? Certainly, a number of open questions - but, I like our chances.
Go Blue!
November 1st, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
Don’t listen to that butter. Stay hungry.
Winter is coming.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
I do think the key to the game is to frustrate Stroud so this is a good start, that the community is nervous and it can affect him.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
Our confidence has changed because our team has changed. If one of these two teams is more of a finesse team, or has so called soft spots, it's OSU and not Michigan. No, we do not have a death star offense that puts up points like Fielding Yost of the 21st century. But we control the line of scrimmage better than 99% of teams in the country (not Georgia last year) and we rarely turn the ball over. Our special teams are supreme. We get relatively few penalties called on us.
We are a very difficult team to beat and OSU knows it. We know it and feel great about it. Yes, the game is in Columbus and that will be challenging. But we have what it takes, we are in their heads, and although it's theoretically possible that they could boat race us again like in 2018 I think that is highly unlikely. We have an excellent chance of winning on 11/26. Bring it on and Go Blue!
November 1st, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
The No. 1 question for that game is whether U-M can again defend the OSU run with a light box. That ability last year allowed Mich to play 5 on 3 in the secondary (and thus avoid big plays).
November 1st, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
OSU will have to try and run outside cause Smith and Jenkins will eat up those inside runs. If OSU cant get 100 yards on the ground like they have failed to do the last 2 weeks they will be in trouble this game. If UM gets them in obvious passing downs UM pass rush will be able to tee off on Stroud. Even if they dont get the sack just getting QB hurry looks to be enough to throw off the OSU passing game.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
The last 2 weeks watching OSU play has made me feel more confident in a UM win. I don't truly think OSU is gonna slow down UM rushing attack and OSU rushing attack has been non exsistent the last 2 weeks against quality competition. If OSU isnt able to run the ball I dont think they can hang around in this game. UM run D is really stout. Could be a similar score to last years game. Im sure OSU will get 300 through the air but are they gonna be able to get 5 TD throwing the ball. I think UM is okay with letting OSU throw the ball but keep everything in front of them. If JSN for OSU keeps having hamstring problems that could limit OSU passing success. They will need that 3 superstar in The Game. UM should win both battles in the trenches. If they dont turn the ball over like Iowa and PSU did to give OSU extra possession. UM should be in great position to win it.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
I think we are in for a back and forth game this year Hopefullynit doesn’t come down to a “spot”