Average Fouls Called In Conference Play
Last night's game made me curious about how fouls were being called across the whole conference. Although points in the paint were roughly even, Iowa was +23 on points from free throws with 25 more attempts. Albeit a smaller sample size, I looked at the average team fouls called during conference games and compared home vs. road games to see if there was in fact "home cooking".
- Average teams fouls in conference play so far this year is roughly 16.5 per team. Michigan has committed the most fouls in the conference play at 19.7 per game while their opponents have been called for the least at 15.5 per game. Their net difference of -4.2 fouls per game makes them only one of five teams with a negative differential. Northwestern and Penn State are the next closest at -3.0.
- However, when you look at games at Crisler the theme changes. Michigan ranks 5th in the conference at 4.5 net fouls per game. Indiana has the highest net home differential at 8.0 while Northwestern is the only team with a net home differential at -0.7.
- In road games, Michigan has the worst conference net differential at -8.5 fouls per game. They have been called for an average of 20.5 fouls in road games while their opponents have been called for 12.0 per game. Michigan State is the only team with a positive differential on the road this year with a net difference of 0.5. They've also only played 2 road games, the least in the conference.
Again, this is a small sample size as most teams have only played 3 conference games at home and on the road. This isn't blaming officiating either, but instead to see if "home cooking" has existed so far. It'll be interesting to look back at the end of the season when the teams have played 20 conference games instead of 6 or 7 and different opponents are taken into account.
The statistic that home teams are 38-6 in conference play was thrown around a lot during the broadcast and on the board after the game. Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, and Rutgers each have one road win while Wisconsin has two. It likely is not a coincidence that only 7 of the 44 conference games have seen a home team be called for more fouls than the road team.
January 18th, 2020 at 6:14 AM ^
The other point I forgot to mention was that home teams in conference play have been called for an average of 14.7 fouls per game while the road team has been called for an average of 18.3 fouls per game. Not sure a net differential of 3.6 fouls per game constitutes "home cooking" but there is a slight advantage for the home team so far.
January 18th, 2020 at 7:31 PM ^
This is the stat I was looking for, thank you for compiling it!
Does anyone know why we are committing so many fouls now? We knew that it was going to increase but I did not anticipate this
January 18th, 2020 at 6:35 AM ^
I also did a study.
When you fall out of a boat 9/10 times you’ll get wet. The one time you won’t is when it’s parked in your driveway.
January 18th, 2020 at 8:33 AM ^
Now that’s some home cookin right there.
January 18th, 2020 at 8:43 AM ^
You study is flawed.
It does not account for the times when there is a puddle on the driveway when you fall.
January 18th, 2020 at 6:45 AM ^
As Anthony Wright posted on Twitter, the reason is simple. They don’t play aggressive. But please, let’s have another ten threads on foul conspiracies.
January 18th, 2020 at 7:04 AM ^
I'm not saying there is a conspiracy, actually quite the opposite. In two home games they've attempted 58 free throws while their opponents have gone to the line 43 times. Yet in four road games they have only 39 attempts while their opponents have 110. Easy thing to point to explain the lack of success on the road. Discrepancies like that are not caused by officiating but instead by giving your opponent too many additional opportunities on one end and an apparent differing approach on offense.
January 18th, 2020 at 7:35 AM ^
Completely agree. Didn’t get that from your post.
January 18th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^
This is good stuff, but that home stat for UM foul shooting is based heavily on Iowa intentionally fouling Michigan basically from the 3 minute mark (16 FTA in the last 3 minutes of a game Michigan was up double digits throughout) on in their first game, resulting in 34 FTA.
I don't think there's some grand conspiracy, just incompetence by the refs. Against the top 6 teams on UM's schedule out of conference (Gonzaga, Oregon, Creighton, ISU, UNC, and Louisville) they shot an average of 12 FTs and their opponents shot an average of 13. Even at Louisville, the one "true" road game they played, the disparity was reasonable (18 to 15 Louisville). Compare that to Iowa, a team that came into the game 11th in the conference at FT/FG percentage, shooting 20+ more foul shots than Michigan. Michigan isn't playing great defensively, but every team in this conference looks night-and-day different between road and home in terms of "aggressiveness" as measured by fouls.
January 18th, 2020 at 10:53 AM ^
Based on Michigan's foul differential, especially last night, I would say Michigan is TOO aggressive. When you play passive I think you would foul less. Or am I sniffing glue?
I think we're not playing smart in hostile environments. A bunch of our fouls were earned, some ticky tack and some legit. We need to somehow adapt to how the refs are calling the game.
I don't know, I am probably deflecting from the real reason we are in a funk and that is BAD defense down low. The big men's stats against us are no longer a blip on the radar. It's a huge problem. It's almost an auto 2 points when a big gets the ball with position near the hoop. We need to figure that shit out. Maybe letting Yaklich walk was a mistake.
January 18th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^
simple answer is that there were about a half dozen fouls that were complete horseshit; mostly on garza but a couple on weiskamp that ace pointed out.
also, wagner and DDJ both got hacked on layups with no call.
the officiating was a complete joke.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
I agree with you on the defense and that was what I tried alluding to, (obviously somewhat poorly), rather than this conspiracy existing. If you look at the three close road games that the team lost in Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa there is a very blatant trend appearing.
- In all three games the opponents' big was the leading scorer on the night. They did try having Simpson help Teske down low when Garza got the ball last night but his foul trouble early negated that idea for much of the game.
- The field goal percentages in these games were fairly even for the most part but the major difference came at the free throw line. Illinois out attempted Michigan 20-6 with 8 of the 20 attempts coming in the last 8 minutes. Minnesota saw a difference of 27-6 with 11 of the 27 coming in the last 8 minutes as well. Last night with 10 minutes to go, Iowa had attempted 22 free throws versus Michigan's 2.
I understand it is difficult to win on the road in conference play but this is not simply a team being down late and forced to foul. The current defensive issues and difference in free throw opportunities shrinks the margin of error for a bad shooting night. That accompanied with essentially a 7 man rotation if foul trouble does occur is the biggest issue.
There were a some good offensive sets ran last night but the team struggled shooting at the end making only 3 field goals in the last 9 minutes including the gift layup right before the buzzer. So in three games of losses by single digits again it comes back to the difference in chances at the line. If you're going to concede those attempts, then the shooting has to be that much better to even a chance in games that were very winable.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^
if you feed the post, you typically get more foul calls. that's always been the case. and iowa feeds the post, a lot. but all the touch fouls that garza gets the benefit of is maddening, especially when he bull rushes and has shoulders and elbows flying.
he has perfected what i always called "the shaq move". and it works because refs let him get away with it.
January 18th, 2020 at 11:27 AM ^
Juwan himself disagrees with that narrative (at 1:05).
No one is calling it a conspiracy, just incompetence.
January 18th, 2020 at 10:30 PM ^
Juwan is such a likeable guy. No wonder he recruits like gangbusters.
January 18th, 2020 at 8:30 AM ^
I'm beginning to believe that the officials hate the perceived MIchigan arrogance
Idk but it feels like Michigan always gets screwed when it comes to officiating
I'm probably just biased
January 18th, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^
You are definitely biased, doesn’t mean you are wrong.
January 18th, 2020 at 8:48 AM ^
I think Michigan gets jobbed because Michigan has a large fan base who bets a lot on Michigan to win. Vegas then pays off refs to ensure Michigan loses most of these games and Vegas makes big money
You can call me a conspiracy theorist tinfoil hat wearer but shits always worse than it seems especially when large sums of money are involved
Terry Wymer was blatantly corrupt last night. That wasnt just poor officiating that was rigging
January 18th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
I think Wymer might just be a bad ref. We don't like him either.
January 18th, 2020 at 7:36 PM ^
Doesn’t Vegas want about equal money on both teams? That was my understanding
January 18th, 2020 at 10:38 AM ^
It seems that most of the difference in fouls (between home team and road team) can be explained by the fact that near the end the home team has been leading in 38 out of the 44 games. Thus the road team begins to foul. Cause or effect?
It would be interesting/enlightening to investigate other years where the discrepancy in win-loss is not so significant.
Thanks
January 18th, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^
Most teams only commit a couple of deliberate fouls at the end of a game. It does not explain the disparity.
There was a point in yesterday's game when Iowa had a 24-2 advantage on free throws . . . and yet we were ahead.
January 18th, 2020 at 11:41 AM ^
Some teams probably go to the intentional foul route earlier than others (Izzo, Iowa in the first game), but it seems like most teams don't start fouling too early and so maybes it a couple at the end of the game. But you don't get that type of disparity just because of end-of-game situations
January 18th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^
When team a wins, team b’s fans think the refs are against them.
when team b wins, team a’s fans think the refs are against them.
Plug in any sport and any fan base to this.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
This is an interesting analysis. Michigan seems to get screwed by the refs on the road.
All I know is a 30-5 free throw disparity is an epic officiating screw job. The game was unwinnable for Michigan and it was handed to Iowa by the refs.
In addition to the 23 extra points scored at the foul line, that disparity puts many of Michigan's players on the bench with foul trouble.
It's not even a basketball game anymore just an epic screw job.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
Of Michigan’s 68 field goal attempts, 34 were three pointers. For the most part it’s safe to say half their shots will not result in a free throw attempt. Shot selection has a lot to do with how many free throws you’re going to attempt.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^
so 34 were not 3 pointers. and UM got the benefit of ONE!!! shooting foul the entire game.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^
I agree. Where are we going to draw fouls? Half the shots are threes. The few "drives" to the hoop we have a game are hook shots and floaters. Nobody attacks the rim off the dribble on this team, at all -- although Wagner did get there on some nice cuts against Iowa. Our best opportunities for foul shots are Teske in tbe post, and teams are taking that away from us by denying entry passes and instantly doubling. I'm not saying B1G refs are 100% impartial, but I do think we'd get to the line much more regularly with Trey Burke or Manny Harris out there attacking the paint off the dribble. We just don't have anything close to that on our roster. We have short point guards, spot up shooters, and a collection of non-threat 4s & 5s. We have ball movers, not rim attackers.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^
Thanks for doing this - I thought it was going to be way out of hand but there's a bit of a trend there. Certainly it hasn't been great the last two games for Michigan. I think its especially odd because Michigan doesn't exactly have a strong/aggressive defense and its still getting whistled for everything.
I don't believe fouls called or FT disparities necessarily tell the whole story of officiating in a game (no calls/missed calls are also just as important) but its interesting to see nonetheless. And that 30-5 number is just eye-popping, I'm having trouble getting past it.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^
Someone do a breakdown of home and away splits for all big ten teams. Then create an online petition. Michigan fans aren’t the only ones mad, the whole big ten would sign that and send it to the offices. The home/road disparity right now is completely ridiculous.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
IMO, this is not an issue of conspiracy (not that I'm saying that's what you're saying...) but one of officiating across the Big Ten in particular. In a year, when the Big Ten is loaded with very good teams and there is an amazing amount of parity, the difference is often the officiating. Unfortunately, I personally believe it is a result of officials being affected by the home crowd. Having coached high school softball, I've seen times where an official reacts to a crowd. Sports are of course emotional. In basketball, where snap officiating decisions are regularly being made, I believe it is easy for an official to snap to an incorrect judgment based upon the crowd's emotion. As money lines note, there will always be a home field advantage, but it seems to me that it's gotten way out of hand in the Big Ten this year. I hope that there is a review of the officials at the end of the season and that there would be repercussions for officials that have consistently biased their foul calls on the visiting team.
January 18th, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
It isn’t called the charity stripe for nothing. Officials use it however they choose.
January 18th, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
Interesting stuff, OP. This is the exact kind of thing that I wonder about, but you actually followed through and looked it up. Much appreciated.
January 18th, 2020 at 6:10 PM ^
It appears that many posters here, thus far, did NOT watch the game last night. As was pointed out, Michigan had 7 fouls called on them before the 15 minute mark of the second half. Its not necessarily just free throws. This put us with a very unusual lineup on the floor. And it was a VERY physical game in which Iowa never got called for ANY rough play ... so there was a home bias there. Michigan scored 7 more 2pt FGs and 2 more 3pt FGs - so 20 MORE points playing basketball ... and Iowa makes 23 more pts from the FT line. Point in the paint were even.
So in our last 2 games (at Minn and Iowa) Michigan has gone to the FT line 11 times compared to 57 times for the road home team. Sorry - that evades any reasonable fundamental explanation.
Go Blue!
January 19th, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
Scheduling Rutgers two games away from home was dumb. They look like one of the 2 or 3 best teams in the conference.