Assuming All 3 Go What's Your Expectation of 2014-2015 MBB?
Not to jump the gun (but I am) - with Nik very likely to go NBA the wildcard for the 2014-2015 team is Mitch. If he does go - what would your expectation be of the squad next year?
General thoughts on conference
- Overall Big 10 will be down with only Wiscy being a "powerhouse".
- There is a vast opening by a number of teams for slot 2 thru 8 in the Big 10 - I'd place any group of these 7 teams in those slots in any order:
- UM - very thin up front, and very young overall but wing/guard talent. LeVert B10POY candidate
-
MSU - assumes Dawson comes back, still has core of SR Dawson, JR Valentine, SR Trice, JR Costello and sharpshooter
SchillingKaminsky. - Maryland - top 10 class joining a bunch of SRs and JRs but some transfers out to offset
- OSU - young team but talented freshman join some transfers in
- Nebraska - top 2 players back, no major losses. Petteway B10POY candidate
- Illinois - had a great record to begin last year, and gelled late with suffocating defense. Will be a bear to play at their home I believe - offense is their main limitation. Not sure if they get any talented freshman in.
- Iowa - big loss in Marble but a deep team with 9 guys who averaged 6 or more pts. Only lose 2 of them, msot of the others can go off on any night for 10-15. Surely coach's family issues were a distraction late in season
[I am not including Indiana despite Yogi in this tier, and Minnesota I don't see as good as the teams above]
General thoughts on team
- Great coaching but in this scenario our ENTIRE starting lineup in the NC game is gone in 12 months. That's difficult.
- 4 guard/wing offense is only option - not a biggie.
- Starters will be playing huge minutes as drop off is pretty severe after first 6.
- Defense last year was iffy and next year will most likely be worse as our best paint defender is gone and we are replacing with a trio of Doyle, Donnal, and Bielfeldt. That's scary.
- LeVert has shown enough to take next step and fill Nik role next year but will face every team's #1 defender and has to adjust to it.
- Irvin we assume can make the freshman to sophomore jump - he is a 5 star and will be playing 30+ minutes a game next year
- Walton Jr wont be playing quite as much as LeVert and Irvin due to Spike, but makes the 3rd of the Big 3 for next year. Needs to become more of a scoring threat; think he will.
- Chatman comes in and immediately needs to play 25+ minutes a game
- Donnal is now getting massive talk but he is still a RS FR next year - one who will get lost at times on defense and refs will be happy to call dumb fouls on... the kind that all college big men not named Randle get called for. Not worried much about his offense but his defense and ability to stay on floor will be issues. He will also be forced to be the "5" in a 4 guard/wing set.
- Depth after Donnal is essentially Doyle and Bielfeldt.
Playing time: 8 players
- LeVert - takes Nik's role at 35 minutes
- Irvin - takes GR3 role at 33 minutes, up from 15 this year
- Chatman - takes GR3 freshman role out of necessity, has to play 27-30ish minutes
- Walton Jr - 27 minutes this year, about the same next year unless Spike and Walton play at same time on court which will make us tiny.
- Spike - same role as last year around 13 min unless we go with a tiny 2 PG backcourt for 5 minutes a game
- Donnal - cannot be expected to play 30 minutes due to being a big man banging with JRs and SRs from other teams and picking up fouls as he learns the game. There are going to be games he gets sent to the bench with 8 left in the 1st half with his 2nd foul - it is just reality. Mitch averaged 20 as a freshman - if we get 22 out of Donnal have to be happy due to defensive stress he will face being only "big man" on court most of the time.
- Bielfeldt - have to ask him to take Horford role and go from 5 min per game to 12ish, at some 5 and 4.
- Doyle - assume he gets the redshirt taken off vs DJ Wilson due to body and position. Gets 8ish minutes a game at 5.
Overall
If Irvin and Walton make "the jump" and Chatman can be somewhere between GR3 and Irvin as a freshman and Donnal can stay on the court 20 minutes a game, it looks like a 4th to 6th place Big 10 team which is good enough to continue the NCAA streak. Depth in front court is frightening however - wings and guards should take care of themselves. Defense is going to be a major issue - we lose a 6'10 JR center and a 6'8 SR center and replace with a 6'9 RS FR and question marks in Bielfeldt and Doyle. Offense I am confident Beilein will do his magic.
Did an article on this exact scenario a little while back. Outside of Horford, it still seems pretty accurate.
http://michigan.247sports.com/Article/Michigans-Worst-Case-Scenario-187…
Roughly the same as this past year. But when the idiot press recycles the old "Michigan can't match their frontcourt"(assuming Mitch is gone) they'll probably be right.
April 14th, 2014 at 10:01 PM ^
Did you expect it this year after McGary went down? Who knows what will happen with the players but we still have the same coaches.
April 14th, 2014 at 10:33 PM ^
Levert was our best defender last year.
The only proven depth will be at PG.
LeVert should be very good at SG, but he'll have a freshman back-up.
Irvin will be asked to make a huge leap in terms of taking on responsibility, and he'll also have a freshman as a back-up.
Donnal, as you note, is unproven, and his back-up will either be a freshman or Bielfeldt.
Center will be a gaping hole: True freshman Doyle (who I'm excited about long-term but not next year), Donnal (also needed at the four), and Bielfeldt.
Every game may be like the Kentucky game in terms of rebounding. Defense will be a big problem b/c of all the new faces. Offense should lag.
I expect to watch a team that always plays hard, with an entertaining style. I expect to see at least one player take a big step forward and look forward to seeing what the freshmen can provide. I'm curious to see who's going to become the leader and what adjustments Beilein is going to make.
probably about 6th or 7th in the Big Ten.
Of course, this is the thought I had this year once McGary got injured so if this means that we'll be staring down another Elite 8 appearance I won't be complaining either!
because I saw us as a top-ten squad next year, regardless. We won't be without McGary. Anxious to hear what he does.
Obviously Mitch coming back changes whole complexion of team.
You soak up 30 minutes a night with Mitch, Donnal gets pushed out to his stretch 4, Irvin is a natural 3, backcourt the same as above. Chatman instead of being relied upon to be a super freshman starter is your backup anywhere from 2 to 4. Irvin can go up to 4 for 5-7 minutes a game, and you can get by.
The other issue is with the 8 we have above, you cannot even absorb a tweaked ankle - at that point you either pull off Wilson's redshirt or you are start looking at guys like Logerman and Dakich getting serious playing time.
I see this roster as a "right side of the bubble team" that starts poorly and makes a run late in the year to get in as a middling seed. Walton/Levert/Irvin could be a nice trio, but the massive holes everywhere else are going to be an issue. I don't think anyone red-shirts in this scenario as I suspect Williams has to play a lot of PF and Doyle has to play 10+ minutes backing up the 5. Asking four freshmen and Bielfeldt to replace Morgan/Horford/McGary/GR3/Stauskas is just too tall of a task. It will be a streaky team that hopefully is well coached enough and hits enough threes to get into the tournament and then anything can happen. Ideally McGary returns and we can consider redshirts for Williams and/or Doyle.
I'm not criticizing the thread at all - in fact, I really like it - but there are just too many unknowns for me to have any idea (and it'd probably be that way until the season starts). I have no idea what we have in our freshmen, true and redshirt, and I'm very curious to see what kind of progression we see from Walton and Irvin. Anything from 2nd place in the conference to a bubble team seems very possible to me.
Come tourney time, they will be an okay team. They will just need time to gel. The big man situation will be worse than what it was this year and we won't shoot quite as well from the perimeter.
Wisconsin wins.
If we get no transfers that can play right away I see us 10-8 in big ten 21-12 overall and 6-9 seed. I hope I am wrong. I see Chatman playing a lot right away along with DJ Wilson. Doyle as the backup center I hope cause if it is Max we are in trouble. Sorry Max your big calves make you slow. Think we took him over Larry Nance Jr. Who would look pretty good in a Michigan uni. Hopefully we get some good transfer. I want Erin Harris bad. Or the Canadian who just decommited from Marquette. I feel like I did when we had the Fab Five great excitement over the program.
Way too many unknowns... but take Arizona to win it all ; )
College basketball is really exhausting and frustrating to follow. Almost the second you get to know guys they're gone, and there's this annoying part of you that wants them either to be Burkean great or just barely not good enough to declare for the NBA.
Yep! I wish our resident Batman would show up and call Jordan on the batphone and tell him to coach a bit worse. A 3 year window on each player would do fine Coach J!
I don't begrudge the guys one bit for leaving, but it's hard to watch guys have good but not great years and still leave. I'm not saying they're wrong to do it. I'm just saying it's hard to watch. Selfishly, I miss the days when only the Webbers of the world left after their sophmore years.
It would be really tough to lose McGary, because Michigan's only had one and a quarter seasons with him. I expect him to leave, though.
If you'll excuse a bro hug, you've become one of my favorite posters on this site. I skim a lot of threads but almost always read your posts because I find so much of what you say interesting or generally worthwhile.
Okay, bro hug over. Stop being so weird.
and I think the OP's first bullet is spot-on. That's a huge turnover of major-league talent. Frankly, two years ago I couldn't imagine all of these guys going to the Association. It feels like when you were a kid and your Mom bought you an ice cream cone, and as soon as you turn from the counter the scoop of ice cream slides off and (in slow motion) hits the ceramic floor with a thud... Damn, one lick... It seems our beloved Michigan has become a sort of under-the-radar Kentucky.
Coach Beilein has an enviable problem on his hands. However, I still love our backcourt entering 2014-15. As a fan I'd love to see all three return, but we all know that won't happen.
So, I have spent my entire day refreshing MGoBlog at work, and now at home, waiting...
Hopefully we pull some 5-star talent in the coming years and turn into a powerhouse. With Coach B and Coach Bacari in the wings, I like our future.
I expect us to have a good, but not great team that will win more games than expected given the quality of our coaching staff and the players remaining. I expect us to to both win and lose with class and dignity, I expect us to beat Sparty twice again and I expect us to finish in the top half of the B1G standings and make the tourny. I expect us to win at least our first game in the dance and maybe even make it to week #2.
I expect those things cause I think we have the finest basketball coach in America on our sidelines and I have the utmost faith in his abilities to recruit, build and lead our basketball team.
1. Wisconsin
2. Maryland
3. OSU
4. Michigan
5. Nebraska
6. MSU
4-6 are closer to the rest than 1-3. I think we win >20 regular season games, are wire to wire #20-30 range, and enter the NCAA tournament as a 5-7 seed.
A Top 10 recruiting class joining plenty of returning upperclassmen from a above-average ACC team in a weak year by the Big Ten standards. Upperclassmen are a big deal in the age of NBA early entries. Florida this year, Miami last year, Nebraska this year to some extent -- you have 22 year olds on the court, you're gonna have more success than your talent level might suggest.
We'll see. Just my prediction. They have a good mix of young talent and seasoned vets.
Thanks you are 100% correct, brain fart. will edit.
I'd think Irvin takes most of Nik's minutes and shots. I don't think his game is that well-suited for the Beilein 4.
LeVert and especially Walton will get more play-making responsibilities, but Caris was already option 1B. He'll get more defensive attention but his role won't change that much - he was already the guy who got the ball when the team was struggling. Spike will get a minutes bump, but mostly I expect Chatman to reprise Irvin's role at the 6th man/ multi-position wing backup. I'd suggest people keep their expectations of Chatman in check because he's playing at a VERY low level of competition out in Oregon right now.
Unclear who will replace Robinson/Morgan/Horford up front. We can all guess, but Bielfeldt/Donnal/Doyle/Wilson is a scrum no one can predict the outcome of, but Bielfeldt and Donnal would probably start to begin the year. Donnal will be like Smotrycz - anytime he plays the 5 the matchup problems will go both ways.
That said, McGary should come back (unlike Nik and GR, who have little to gain and lots to lose by returning). It's in Mitch's interest to do so and (obviously) would make the team dramatically better, much more so than this year.
If McGary does return it's Muppets-worthy.
...we're happy to make the tournament and even happier to win a game.
However, I think McGary stays...
N. I. T. here we come!! Max Bielfeldt is looking to slay some fools!
Remember that our schedule is favorable next year in conference:
Home: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Away: Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Purdue
Home/Away: Illinois, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Rutgers
Unless we get some late pick-ups, I see a bubble team.
B1G champions. If you doubt Beilein you can GTFO
plus MorFord being gone,