5 key players for the upcoming football season
Came across a piece about the 5 key players for Michigan's 2013 season. I won't ruin the rest of the article for you, but the obvious #1 is Devin Gardner and his health.
Who's play do you think is most important for us to win the B1G?
Behind Gardner sits true freshman Shane Morris and redshirt freshman Brian Cleary. Because neither of them are ready to take the reins, Gardner’s durability will be the overwhelming factor of Michigan’s success throughout the year.
http://sportstalk313.com/2013/08/5-key-players-for-michigan-football-su…
August 15th, 2013 at 4:09 PM ^
To me it has to be Frank Clark. If any of the hype is true, he could really put the back 7 in a favorable position.
August 15th, 2013 at 4:14 PM ^
It's Gardner and it's not close, and not just because of his health:
Gardner showed flashes of genuinely gamebreaking talent last season. With the offense transitioning from decent non-worldbeating skill players (Fitz, Gallon) to young and unseasoned skill players (Green, Darboh) and with a young interior line, Gardner's ability or lack of ability to make plays will be the key issue for the team.
His ceiling is Vince Young territory, a mobile nightmare who is always a danger to pick up chunks of yards with scrambles but can also make throws that stretch the defense. His floor is a decent game manager who completes 58% of his passes, occasionally makes good plays with his feet, occasionally makes baffling mistakes, and given three key last-minute drives will spit the bit on two of them.
The former scenario puts us in Indianapolis with Pasadena in the picture. The latter loses to MSU and maybe one or two other teams and puts us in "cross fingers for miracle" territory against Ohio State with the Rose Bowl already out of the picture.
August 15th, 2013 at 4:28 PM ^
I think Gardner's ceiling is higher than Vince Young territory because I think Gardner has the potential to be a much better passer then Young (this ceiling may not be completely reached until 2014). Gardner might not be the battering ram running the ball like Young was but Yound had 30lbs on Gardner. Even so like you said, as we saw last year with Gardner he has the ability to make plays with his legs.
I also think Gardner's football IQ will be higher than Young's.
August 15th, 2013 at 4:35 PM ^
There is no way Gardner or anybody else can exceed that. Lets not get carried away.
August 15th, 2013 at 5:12 PM ^
Vince Young's passing stats:
2004
CMP - 148, ATT - 250, PCT - 59.3, Yds - 1849, TD - 12, Int - 11
2005
CMP - 212, ATT - 325, PCT - 65.2, Yds - 3036, TD - 26, Int - 11
I would like to think Gardner is going to have a better junior year as a passer than Young did. Senior year - who knows?
The big difference will be Gardner won't the accomplished runner that Young was. Young had 167 rush attempts as a junior and 155 as a senior and both years he went over 1,000 yds. Unless Gardner is running for his life on passing plays I don't see coming close to 150 rush attempts in a year.
So maybe I should revise and say I think his ceiling as a passer is higher than Young's because unless there's problems with the offense I don't think he comes close to replicating Young's rushing stats.
August 15th, 2013 at 6:20 PM ^
2005 was Vince Young's junior year (redshirt). He was an early entry.
August 16th, 2013 at 9:03 PM ^
By this analysis any QB who completes 65% of his passes and can run could surpass Vince Young. The game is not all about stats - the guy just impacted games to such a degree at the highest level and was dominant...I mean just dominant. I was surprised at his slow 40 times at combine because he was one of those guys who seemed to pull away from players in the field (granted it was mostly LBs and DEs but still). One of those guys who does not slow down with pads on (Denard was similar) I think Vince Young and Reggie Bush were the 2 most dominant offensive weapons in the past 10-12 years in college football. I am not sure a 3rd player can come close but maybe I forgot someone. By the way for comparison Pryor's season year stats as a jr: 65% on 323 attempts (identical to Young), yds 2772, TD 27, INT 11 - aside from yards these are almost identical stats. He ran 135x for 754 yds - about 11x a game. I thought Pryor was an excellent college QB that year (suffered from lack of passing acumen earlier) but Young was in a diff league. I don't expect Gardner to run that much - maybe 5-6x a game. But he is the most important player on the team because of his position and the fact the QB depth is poor.
August 15th, 2013 at 7:23 PM ^
I think Gardner just has a higher IQ in general. Didn't Young score ~6 on his Wonderlic?
August 15th, 2013 at 8:34 PM ^
Yep. 6 on the first test, 16 on the second attempt.
But the Wonderlic is a poor (if not exactly useless) test for football IQ. It's more of a general logic test than a football test, if that makes sense. Ex: "Is this statement true? Jeff is a QB. All QBs love steak. Therefore, Jeff loves steak." Questions tend to be more like that than "Diagnose the defense based on the following formation"
August 15th, 2013 at 4:29 PM ^
If the interior line can block, we will be able to run the ball. If we can run the ball, Gardner can play at the "floor" you described and Michigan can still win the conference title.
On the flip side, if the interior OL stinks, Gardner can be Vince Young and Michigan will still lose a whole lot of games (i.e., Vince Young had a solid OL and rungame to allow him to flourish.)
Is Gardner important? Certaintly, but the floor-to-ceiling gap for him is not as tall as for the OL. The OL could be a disaster or punishing maulers - we don't know
Also -- I would wager a whole lot of money that Darboh is not going to have more 'skill' than Gallon, who oozes it.
August 15th, 2013 at 4:41 PM ^
A Gardner playing at this hypothetical ceiling probably flips 3 or 4 of last season's losses (keep in mind last year was "average" Gardner). And that's with a dreadful offensive line. There's no way that a VY-caliber player wouldn't score at least 1 TD in the second half at OSU, for example.
That's why I believe Gardner's theoretical ceiling, which he may well never approach, can elevate Michigan from good-not-great B1G team to national player.
August 15th, 2013 at 5:04 PM ^
This is a very subjective area to be sure, but I have a different view of Gardner's range. I don't know that last year was his "average" - he played very well, particularly in comparison to the previous season. If our OL is replacement level (or 3/5ths of it), I don't care how good your QB is, you're going to lose games. I think this is particularly true given our offensive philosphy (power run game and long-developing pass plays). Even transcendant QBs need OLmen who can play.
I feel like I've gone from a Gardner optimist to a Gardner pessimist as the hype train has sped up over the last couple months.
While I agree that 3 or 4 games could have flipped, that's kind of irrelevant. They were close games so the logic goes for the OL as well. Other than Alabama, all our games were winnable including Nebraska (pre-Bellomy). To flip it the other way - we HAD a pretty great QB last year who was better than Gardner (I'll trust the coaching staff over subjective opinions about what a QB needs to be to be great.) But take away our 3 interior OL starters and replace them with walk-ons and freshman last year and we lose MSU, Northwestern, and probably Air Force.
The best argument for Gardner is health, as we saw what can happen with a bad backup QB last year.
But if you assume Gardner is healthy you know that at worst he is going to be decent - we can't say that about the interior OL yet.
August 15th, 2013 at 6:42 PM ^
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that Gardner is the better QB. I think the coaches made the correct call last year going with Denard because he had solid game experience, but Gardner really proved himself during the last 5 games of the season, putting up a much better QB rating against some decent B1G teams.
August 15th, 2013 at 7:13 PM ^
I don't think anyone is disputing that Gardner is the better passer. I'm not even sure Denard would dispute it.
Gardner played well against weak defenses (NW, Iowa, Minn) but did not play well against good ones (OSU, SC). You can say the same for Denard I suppose but he generated a lot of offense.
When the run game gets shut down, the QBs job is much harder.
August 15th, 2013 at 11:43 PM ^
He threw for three TDs against SC. I would say that is playing pretty well.
August 15th, 2013 at 5:07 PM ^
Michigan is philosophically dependant on a strong defense and run game. Yes, we could beat MSU with one or two great plays from Gardner, because they probably won't be able to put up a ton of points against our D. But Ohio State, Notre Dame, and maybe some others will not be shut down. To beat those teams we'll need consistent production, which requires running the ball and protecting the QB.
August 15th, 2013 at 5:42 PM ^
Thing is, though, we're talking about optimistic hypotheticals. My optimistic ceiling for Gardner is of a good-to-great passer who is dangerous on the ground; this is a recipe for an offense that can produce yards and points even if the running game is struggling. Great quarterbacks can do that, and Gardner has a (small, perhaps, but real) chance to be great this year. That would conceal a great many weaknesses elsewhere.
August 15th, 2013 at 7:06 PM ^
The 2012 team ran for 4.8 yards per carry. The only higher seasons (since at least 2004) were 2010 and 2011. The 4.8 ypc is higher than the 2006 team did, or any other Carr team since at least 2004. No matter how much one hates Rodriguez, he brought in the pieces for an effective run game.
Point is 2012 was not a disaster by any stretch. 2008 was a disaster. 2012 was three 5th year seniors and NFL tackles, a team that won 8 games and lost a bunch of close ones, despite losing it's starting QB. The OL rarely faltered in pass protection, but it did struggle with run-blocking on the interior. We didn't run the ball against elite defenses, which - duh. The OL was not a team strength, but it was far from disaster. Remember this was (besides Molk) basically the same team that ran very well in 2011 (5.2 ypc).
Comparing this year to last, the tackles are back and the HOPE is that talent will be more important than experience on the interior. If that HOPE comes to fruition we could be as good as last year at guard. Center, however, is looking very '2008' and if things don't work out at guard it could be same. Remember that the 2008 line did include an NFL tackle (Schilling) on one side and a competant starter on the other (Orttman). Injuries hit, the scheme was new, walk-ons entered, inexperienced players started, and things fell apart all around. Molk and Huyge were there too, but too young to be of much help. Youth - there - did not serve us.
By no means do I think 2013 OL will be as bad as 2008, but the floor is closer to 2008 than 2012.
If you think the OL is going to be better this year, you are an optimist. It's possible, but not because of Kalis-Miller-Braden, but because the tackles should be even better and the TEs (pseudo-linemen on most plays) won't be true freshman. Experience matters.
That said, so does talent. I don't expect the OL to be worse than last year. The outside should be better. They won't be as good in pass-pro on the interior, but they might fit the run game better. Who knows, maybe we have another Hutchinson-Backus on our hands, that's the optimistic hypothetical, as you say.
In evaluating who is key as a player who can swing the fate of the team, I think we should talk not only of optimistic hypotheticals but pessimstic hypotheticals. The pessimistic hypothetical for the OL is DOOM. The pessimistic hypothetical for (a healthy) Gardner is... still pretty good?
I do buy the adage "you can have a bad OL or a bad QB but not both". In 2008, we had both. This year we will not, but that's sufficient only for being a good solid team, not a conference champion. To be a conference champion you have to be solid (at worst) at both OL and QB.
August 16th, 2013 at 8:00 AM ^
until you tried to say that last years interior o-line wasn't a disaster. The stats you bring up for them were because of Denard Robinson who gain yards in spite of the interior o-line blocking, not because of it. If you took his carries out of the equation I think the number would be a lot different.
Also, you bring up that they were solid in pass pro...Is that really true either? I mean we had two very mobile QB's and I seem to remember quite a few times in which they were running for their lives because the blocking broke down or throwing way to early an ill advised pass because defenders were in their face (namely Denard on that one).
My point is I think you are underestimating the suck of the interior o-line last year. If Braden, Kalis and Miller are a downgrade from what we saw last year we are in a world of hurt. The RB's need to be able to find some holes so that we can take a little of pressure off the passing game if we really want to see what Borges/Gardner can do.
Now this is where I agre with you. I think that of the top 5 key players on our team 3 of them will be the interior o-line and how they are able to handle things this year. Devin (IMHE) is only a key in that he has to stay healthy and the rest will take care of itself, but the o-line really has something to prove.
The other two key positions to me will be Jarrod Wilson and Cam Gordon. If those two can hold their own they will be the difference between what could be a very good year for this defense and potential disaster. Personally I think both will be fine with the odd busted play that will lead to a head scratching touchdown and leave us wishing Kovacs and Ryan were on the field, but for the most part I think they will be pretty good and not end up costing us any games.
Just missing the cut for me would be 3 players that I think could be determining factors in our season (good or bad), those being Clark, Fitz and whoever wins the SDE position. Everywhere else we seem to have known commodities but in the positions I have listed we have pretty much unknowns or in Fitz's case someone coming back from serious injury. How these things shake out will be key contributors to how our season goes in this posters humble opinion.
August 16th, 2013 at 9:07 PM ^
Mat the only run game Michigan had was Denard. Period. It was frustrating to watch all the other RBs even try. It was awful. Take out the Denard stats and tell me how the actual RUNNING BACKS did. All of us watched the games - we all watched games when Michigan had a viable running game. They did not last year and I dont blame it all on the RBs - Fitz looked worse than 11 (very tentative), Rawls never did anything but run into the butt of an OL, Vincent (bless him) is a scat back, etc. Denard was magnificent in the RB role with one arm but he was the entire running game both early in the season and late.
August 15th, 2013 at 4:58 PM ^
How can it be anyone but Gardner?
August 15th, 2013 at 4:17 PM ^
Gardner.. obvs
Kalis....if he's the real deal (like Hutchinson) this could be a very good offense.
Clark.... please give the edge pressure we need w/o blitzing
Glasgow/Miller/whoever is at C needs to be solid if not spectacular
Green... if he's the real deal (like Ron Dayne or TJ Ducket... but fast!) this could be a very good offense.
1st off the bench: Morris. he's gonna get some meaningful snaps... can he just be better than Bellomy last year?
August 15th, 2013 at 4:21 PM ^
Glasgow, Miller, Kalis, Braden and....Garner, sure.
I think the defense will be fine, we have talent and depth, but if there are 5 key guys who will determine our fate on that side it they would be:
Wilson, Wormley, Ryan, Black, and Cam Gordon.
August 15th, 2013 at 6:00 PM ^
I think he is a key considering his change in position... to a place that we really need him to be good at.
August 15th, 2013 at 4:21 PM ^
we need to manufacture blowouts in the first few games so that Morris can get meaningful time. . . I would feel a little better about QB depth if the backups can get some snaps.
August 15th, 2013 at 4:30 PM ^
August 15th, 2013 at 4:28 PM ^
Obivously Gardner
I think Amara Darboh has to step up and provide a threat on the other side of Gallon.
I'll put the interior of the O-Line as a group.
Frank Clark- We need him to give us that dominant pass rusher we've lacked for a few seasons.
And I think Thomas Gordon's leadership is really gonna be key in the secondary this year.
August 15th, 2013 at 5:01 PM ^
August 15th, 2013 at 4:38 PM ^
Jarrod Wilson's development will be a big part of what Michigan is able to do on defense this year. Will the last couple of heart-attack-free years of safeties that mostly didn't allow the big play become a thing of the past? Will the safeties be more athletic and/or more likely to cause turnovers? Both? I'm very interested to see what Wilson does.
August 15th, 2013 at 4:41 PM ^
August 15th, 2013 at 4:40 PM ^
August 15th, 2013 at 5:43 PM ^
My view is that key players are guys who 1) haven't shown great play 2) have the potential to do so, and 3) have a thin bench behind them. Gardner is the obvious, far and away, number 1.
The Washington / Pikins combo should be on anyone's list. If they can play, this defense gets really hard to play against given the quality of our linebackers--even without Jake Ryan. I view defensive tackle spots as combo spots because even the best players don't seem to play 75% of the available downs.
The other key is Darboh. He has to be able to play or Michigan is going to struggle to force defenses to cover the whole field. A lot of average line play can be covered up by forcing teams into nickel coverage on more downs and to be neutral against the run.
August 15th, 2013 at 6:05 PM ^
followed by the Q/Pipkins combo, Fitz, whoever plays center, and Gallon
August 15th, 2013 at 6:26 PM ^
Is it 5 key established players, or 5 key new players?
At any rate, here are my five new players:
- Glasgow. I think at this point that he is going to start, and that he is going to be a lot better than many fans realize.
- Darboh or Jesson. I think one of them is going to be a star receiver, and quick.
- Green. Yes, Fitz will start, but if Green figures things out, and can run through holes and gain chunks, the season goes well.
- Wilson. We will miss Kovacs, and have in some ways taken him for granted. How Wilson does will make a huge difference.
- Morris. It is very important that he get experience running the offense, and quickly.
Here are my five established players:
- Gardner. Can he pass accurately and avoid injury?
- Lewan he will lead the way for OL, and help the 10 freshman OL recruits learn the ropes.
- Jake Ryan. If he comes back very strong mid-October, this is going to make a huge difference the rest of the way.
- Countess. Can he shut down things in the secondary, and is he completely back?
- Clark. We need a major and consistent disrupter. If he is up to the task, it makes a huge difference.
August 15th, 2013 at 6:33 PM ^
5. Clark-the man needs to live up to the hype and become a consistent threat for the pass rush. I think he can do it, but the success of the defense hinges greatly on that.
4. Cam Gordon-replacing JMFR, for at least part of the season anyway, is a tall task. I've got faith he can hold down the fort, but Ryan was our big playmaker on defense last year, so Gordon has got some shoes to fill.
3. Gallon-he needs to be that #1 threat that Michigan has lacked since Manningham. I think he and Gardner should work well together and he came on strong last year at the end, but he should be shooting for a 1000+ yd season. He and Funchess can be somewhat interchangeable here, but I'm giving the nod to Gallon due to his higher level of experience and proven chemistry with Gardner.
2. Lewan-stud All-American left tackle, protecting Devin's blindside and, with him, our hopes for the season. Lewan's ability to dominate, stay healthy, and keep the opposing pass rush at bay this year is critical. Otherwise, the O-Line is in trouble and Gardner will be running for his life more often than not.
1. Gardner-because obviously. No one with any snaps behind him. If he goes down, likely so does our season unless Shane can be a true frosh phenom, and I don't want him to be under that kind of pressure this early in his career.
August 15th, 2013 at 6:49 PM ^
Denard is one of my favorite players of all time (and I'm old enough to have seen Anthony Carter play), but I'm glad he's gone. We never could run the offense we wanted to with DR behind center. We got a glimpse late at what DG can do. With spring ball and now this summer camp under his belt, he's going to be the breakout player of the season.
I never know what to make of our running game. For decades, we've brought in these highly touted RBs who turn out to be good, not great, and total busts in the NFL. So I think it comes down to the QB position to lead the way this season.
I live in L.A. and if somehow we can get to the Rose Bowl, Wolverine nation will be descending on my house for a hell of a New Year's bash. But getting to the Rose Bowl only requires beating Ohio in consecutive weeks. Uhh, piece of cake, right?
August 15th, 2013 at 9:27 PM ^
Considering players who are at least slightly an unknown, I say that success from the following players most dramatcially improves the teams chances of winning a Big Ten title.
1. Gardner- Obviously must remain healthy, but assuming he can do that, playing up to his potential could turn a good offense into a very good one.
2. Clark- Pass rush from the d-line would be a game changer, especially once Jake Ryan returns.
3. Wilson- If he can be a play maker at safety that would completely change the outlook of the secondary
4. Toussaint/Green- One of the two, or both, need to be very good.
5. Pick a new OL starter- Any one of the three new OL needs to be good. The other two could be mediocre so long we have Lewan playing like an all-america, Schofield playing like an all-conference player, and one other guy playing very solidly.
August 15th, 2013 at 9:37 PM ^
August 16th, 2013 at 10:31 AM ^
I'd add Chris Wormley to the list. When he committed, I saw his as our version of Adolphus Washington, who saw significant playing time as a frosh. Wormley's injury put him a year back. Whether he lands a 3tech or 5tech, I'd like to see him make an impact this year, if for no other reason to stay on pace with OSU's development.
August 16th, 2013 at 3:56 PM ^
Devin,Jeremy,Miller,Clark,and Thomas Gordan