What is this diary? After each week, I take a deep dive into the box scores and team pages from Pro Football Focus, Game on Paper, College Football Data, and more websites for as many Big Ten teams as I can manage. I try to cover as many teams as I can each week, but life often makes that impossible. (This week, it didn't! I covered every team that played! [Again, kinda.])

I try to generate a couple blurbs based on the statistics I find compelling from each game/team. Really, there’s no formula. This is just a very paper-based, statistical approach to evaluating teams. And, also, sometimes I watch a little bit of film if I don’t believe the statistics and want to know what the heck is happening (see: Drew Allar).

Note: Games are listed in order of how much I think a Michigan fan will care about the (a) teams playing, and (b) outcome of the game.

OHIO STATE defeated MARYLAND (37-17)

Context on the final score. A 20 point victory is a significant margin, but this game was tied 17-17 just minutes before the 4th quarter began. The Buckeyes’ defense came up with several big plays that helped the offense pad that score. First, they intercepted Taulia Tagovailoa to set up the offense at the Maryland 38 yard line; this led to a short field goal to make it 20-17. After forcing a first down and out, the Buckeyes scored on a 75 yard drive to make it 27-17. Then, Maryland turned it over on downs at their own 32 (J.T. Tuimoloau made a nice play to stuff the 4th down run attempt), and an unsportsmanlike conduct gave the Buckeyes the ball at the Terrapins’ 17 yard line; they scored a touchdown to make it 34-17. The defense would cause a third down and out on Maryland’s next possession, setting up a punt that was caught at the 50 yard line. Eight plays and 27 yards later, the Buckeyes’ first-team offense settled for another field goal, bringing the final score to 37-17. Call me crazy, but I’d rather root for the team that’s up by 20+ going into the 4th quarter (see: Michigan) than rely on beating the other team by three scores in the last 15 minutes of a game (see: Ohio State).

ON THE BUCKEYES

McCord’s problems with pressure. The difference between Kyle McCord in a clean pocket and Kyle McCord under duress is greater than for any other Big Ten QB. When he’s kept clean, he has an NFL passer rating of 131.3, which is second highest in the Big Ten after J.J. McCarthy’s 133.0. When he’s pressured, though, his NFL passer rating drops to 44.9, ahead of only Tanner Mordecai (41.7), Ben Bryant (41.6), and Athan Kaliakmanis (38.7). The difference between his pressured passer rating and clean passer rating is 86.4. The next highest difference is Taulia Tagovailoa (112.8 when clean, 56.9 under pressure, difference of 55.9). Another way to think about it is that his passer rating is 2.92 times better when he’s kept clean. The next highest by that measurement is Ben Bryant (2.25 times better when clean).

Run game struggles. Maryland isn’t a team that’s well-known for their run defense. This season, Towson, Charlotte, Virginia, and Michigan State have all averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry (the only team to not break that was Indiana). This week, though, the Buckeyes averaged just 3.1 yards per carry. Yes, they were without TreVeyon Henderson, but Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams have both proven more than capable ball-carriers. Trayanum got the bulk of the work against the Terrapins, but only managed 61 yards on 20 carries. He forced five missed tackles (thus, 0.25 MTF/C, which is a good number for an RB), but couldn’t spring a single run for more than 10 yards. On his six carries, Williams had one carry for 10+ yards. This could just be what happens to the Buckeyes when they play somewhat competent defenses. If you remove their longest run from each Power 69 (Power Five + Notre Dame) matchup they’ve played this season (against Indiana, Notre Dame, and now Maryland), the Ohio State ground game is averaging just 3.33 yards per carry. As a consequence of that, they’re not Top 100 in the FBS in success rate on rushing plays or power success rate.

Not getting home, but making an impact. When a team has two ultra-blue-chip defensive ends in their third years in the program, you kind of expect that team to have an elite pass rush, or at least an above-average one. Ohio State doesn’t have that. Though PFF grades them as the third best pass rushing team in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes sack rate is just 3.82%, which is 116th best in the nation. That said, they do generate a lot of pressure (in every game but against Youngstown State, more than 33% of opposing quarterback drop backs have seen pressure), and that pressure is often felt. That was certainly the case with Tagovailoa this past weekend. “TeeTee,” as Gus Johnson calls him (keep working, bud), has been all right against the rush this year, earning PFF’s 8th best passing grade in the conference when he’s under duress. I have a feeling he was ranked a few spots higher before Ohio State pressured him on 17 of his 47 drop backs. On those 17 drop backs, he threw the ball 13 times, completed just 3 balls for 33 yards, and threw an INT. He was also sacked twice.

Josh Proctor is having a really good year. The safety may have finally found his groove in this secondary. Proctor assumed the starting job late in the 2020 season and had a trial-by-fire against Clemson and Alabama (didn’t go that well). His 2021 was cut short due to injury in the second week of the season, and his 2022 saw him lose his starting spot five weeks into the year, and then also miss time due to injury. But now, in his sixth year with the program, Proctor is truly having a great season (or so the stats say). When targeted, he’s allowing a miniscule 1.7 NFL passer rating. His tackling has been pretty consistent (11.1% missed tackle rate), and he’s made seven stops in Ohio State’s past two games against Notre Dame and Maryland. He also had a pick-six against Maryland to keep the Buckeyes from falling too far behind in the first half. Amongst Big Ten safeties with 150+ snaps on the season, he has the second highest grade on PFF (83.8) behind only Flip Dixon.

ON THE TERRAPINS

An utter and embarrassing collapse. The Terps got the ball with 8:51 left in the third quarter. The game was tied 17-17. Time to play your best football, right? Nah. From that point on, Maryland ran 21 offensive plays and just four of them were “successful” (positive EPA). They didn’t have a single successful offensive play in the entire 4th quarter! Much of the narrative the announcers were trying to push during the game was that the Terrapins felt disrespected: they were undefeated but still not ranked because no one takes Maryland football seriously. This is why. If you’re going to shut yourself in a locker and throw away the key, you’re not a serious football team.

They can’t/won’t run right. Just like Michigan’s offense with Jake Long many years ago, the Terrapins heavily rely on the left side of their line to make their ground game go. On the year, they have 101 carries to the left of center which have totaled 612 yards (6.06 Y/C) and six touchdowns. They’ve run right of center just 66 times for 236 yards (3.58 Y/C) and two touchdowns, and have yet to have a run of 20+ yards in that direction. The Terrapins are shaking things up to try to balance this out. Corey Bullock, their highest graded run blocker on PFF, started the year at LG, but has moved to RG for the last three games. Conor Fagan was yanked from his role as starting RT after three games and replaced by Gottlieb Ayedze, who at the very least has a better PFF grade. It’s also worth pointing out that their TEs are very bad blockers: Corey Dyches (who reminds me a lot of Devin Funchess, aka a faux TE) has a 48.4 run blocking grade, and Preston Howard has a 43.4 run blocking grade.

Lackluster pass rushers. I blurbed a few blurbs back about Kyle McCord’s struggles when under duress. Considering the limpness of the Maryland pass rush, it tracks that he had perhaps his best game of the year (statistically, he put up better numbers against Western Kentucky and Youngstown State, but, I mean, c’mon, no). On the defensive line, the Terps’ best pass rusher is Donnell Brown, but his win rate of 11.9% is 25th amongst Big Ten defensive linemen with 50+ pass rush snaps. After that, Taizse Johnson’s win rate of 9.4% puts him 40th, Quashon Fuller’s win rate of 9.2% puts him tied for 41st, and Tommy Akingbesote’s win rate of 9.0% puts him tied for 45th. The only truly scary pass rusher on the team is Jaishawn Barham: his win rate of 20.7% is ranked third amongst Big Ten LBs with 18+ pass rush snaps, but he’s only sent to hunt down the QB about six times per game.

WISCONSIN defeated RUTGERS (24-13)

The worst play in football. With 20 seconds left before halftime, Rutgers’ offense was finally moving. After their first five drives produced just one first down, they had traveled 69 yards on eight plays and had the ball at the Wisconsin six yard line. Down 10-0, Gavin Wimsatt dropped back to pass, looked right, locked on to his slot WR running an out route, and threw it towards the pylon. Unfortunately, his tunnel vision allowed Ricardo Hallman to jump the route and return the ball 95 yards to the house. The Badgers took a 17-0 lead into halftime. Situationally, this play was so disastrous that Game on Paper gave it a -10.80 EPA. That’s more than a touchdown and a field goal. And that’s just the expected points lost. What about the morale lost?

ON THE BADGERS

Kinda still the same offense. For time immemorial, Wisconsin offenses have been run-heavy units that were very comfortable battering their way down the field, consistently picking up solid yardage but really beating you with big plays. Statistically, this means they often had pretty good success rates (usually around 45% in the Chryst era) and pretty low explosiveness* scores (usually around 1.10 in the Chryst era). Even though new offensive coordinator Phil Longo is purportedly installing an air raid offense, those numbers have changed very little this year: the Badgers’ success rate is at 48.4% and their explosiveness score is 1.06. There are only three teams in the country with a success rate higher than 45% and an explosiveness score lower than 1.10: the Wisconsin Badgers, the Penn State Nittany Lions, and the Auburn Tigers. Even if the Badgers are throwing the ball at a higher rate than in years past, their offense is still pretty much producing similar results.

*For those who didn’t read my post on Sunday about Michigan, per CFBD, explosiveness is an offense’s mean EPA for “successful” (positive EPA) plays.

Getting to know you. Jackson Acker also committed to Wisconsin in 2021, but after finding himself behind Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi on the depth chart, he did a reasonable thing for a Paul Chryst Wisconsin team: he put on 40 pounds and became a fullback. It didn’t go great (52.9 run blocking grade on PFF last year), but with Longo taking over, and the position of FB becoming moot, he’s transitioned back to RB, and now is the number two after Mellusi’s season-ending injury. Based on Acker’s workload in the semi-competitive Rutgers game (13 carries to Allen’s 21), I’d say we can expect to see a good deal of him this year. Why, though? Allen’s superiority is so statistically clear. On 21 carries this season, Acker hasn’t broken a tackle and is averaging just 2.90 yards after contact per carry. On 73 carries this year, Allen’s broken 29 tackles (that’s an absurd 0.40 MTF/C) and averages 4.37 yards after contact per carry. Longo really oughta know where his bread is buttered, but it is probably fair to say that any decent running back could succeed behind an offensive line that’s averaging 3.56 line yards (for reference, Michigan is at 3.69).

Jury’s semi-out on the pass defense. According to Game on Paper, the Badgers have faced 42 pass plays per game, which is one of the highest numbers in the country, and according to College Football Data, they’ve done very well against the pass with a predicted points added of 0.11 (20th best in the country). They’ve played two pretty good pass offenses (Wazzu [0.38 PPA] and GA Southern [0.35 PPA]), one not good pass offense (Purdue [0.22 PPA]), and two very bad pass offenses (Rutgers [0.11 PPA], and Buffalo [0.04 PPA]). Despite what the stats say, though, I’m skeptical that GA Southern’s pass offense is actually good, considering their other opponents have been Citadel, UAB, Ball State, and Coastal Carolina, and I’m also skeptical about Wazzu’s passing proficiency: against the only other Top 50 defense (per BCF Toys’ DF+ metric) that the Cougars have played (that being UCLA at number 12), WSU quarterback Cameron Ward completed fewer than 50% of his passes for fewer than 5.0 Y/A. All this is to say that despite what some stats might tell you, context matters.

ON THE SCARLET KNIGHTS

The offensive coordinator problem. I really don’t care that Kirk Ciarrocca had not-one-but-two All-Americans last year at Minnesota (center John Michael Schmitz and RB Mohamed Ibrahim), or was a Broyles Award finalist in 2019, or that he helped develop Joe Flacco at Delaware––if you’ve been an offensive coordinator for 19 years and you’re still just an offensive coordinator at this version of Rutgers, you probably should not be an offensive coordinator any longer. Statistically, my biggest gripe with Ciarrocca is his bone-headed use of Gavin Wimsatt for two reasons. First, the guy clearly has accuracy issues and can’t read a defense (it’s a lot of telegraphing on that offense), so why does he have the lowest percentage of throws behind the line of scrimmage (aka screens) by a mile in the Big Ten? Wimsatt has thrown just 3.5% of his passes behind the LOS; the next lowest is Athan Kaliakmanis at 9.5%. Seriously, make it easier on your guy. Also, Wimsatt this offseason claimed his 40 time was 4.5; that’s fast! He’s also 235 pounds. So why is Ciarrocca running him just 6.3 times per game? Give me––an absolute jabroni––this offense and it’s hurry up, all screens and options. Clearly, Ciarrocca’s plan (83rd in OF+) ain’t working yet.

The run offense wilts. In the three non-conference games Rutgers played this year against Temple, Virginia Tech, and Wagner, their offense posted strong rushing numbers: 136 carries for 788 yards (5.79 Y/C) and 13 touchdowns. But against their Big Ten schedule (so far Northwestern, Michigan, and Wisconsin), they’ve run the ball 88 times for 266 yards (3.02 Y/C) and just two touchdowns. The offensive line shoved around the non-conference opponents, averaging 3.6 line yards per rush, but has found no purchase when playing Big Ten defensive fronts, averaging just 2.3 line yards per rush. It’s also worth pointing out that starting RB Kyle Monangai broke a total of 27 tackles in the non-conference games; he’s broken two in Big Ten play.

The best tackling team there is. Of the 133 FBS teams, Rutgers has the highest team tackling grade on PFF (90.7). It probably helps that they’ve played Northwestern (109th in OF+), Temple (118th), Virginia Tech (89th), and Wagner (FCS), but they’ve also played Michigan and Wisconsin, both of whom absolutely have players that can make you miss with regularity. The five guys on their team with the most tackles on the season (LBs Tyreem Powell, Deion Jennings, and Mohammed Toure and safeties Shaquan Loyal and Flip Dixon) all have missed tackle rates below 10.0%. The weak links tackling-wise are CB Max Melton and S Desmond Igbinosun, who respectively have a 31.6% and 20.8% missed tackle rate, but there’s reason to expect this to improve: Melton missed just 13.9% of tackles last year (Igbinosun missed 20%, though).

IOWA defeated PURDUE (20-14)

ON THE HAWKEYES

The worst offense in the country. Okay, that’s probably not 100% accurate (considering Akron and Sam Houston have probably played much easier schedules), but they are the only team in the country (according to CFBD) with a success rate below 35% (there are only three teams in the country who can say that) and an offensive predicted points added below 0.00 (there are only two teams in the country who can say that). They have the seventh lowest line yards in the country, the fourth lowest predicted points added on passing plays, the third lowest success rate on passing plays, the lowest success rate on passing downs, and the seventh lowest success rate on rushing plays. In his past two games against MSU (2nd worst coverage grade in the Big Ten per PFF) and Purdue (3rd worst coverage grade in the Big Ten per PFF), QB Deacon Hill has completed 17 of 46 passes (37.0%) for 225 yards (4.89 Y/A). In 20 drives against Top 30 DF+ opponents, they’ve scored 13 points. They are so, so, so lucky that Michigan and Ohio State are not on their schedule this year.

The best punt returner in the country. Cooper DeJean is an excellent defensive back, but he’s also just an excellent playmaker, and has a very good case as the best punt returner in the country. On his 15 returns (second most in FBS), he has thus far accumulated 215 yards (also second most) and scored a touchdown. Only Ainlas Smith of Texas A&M has more return yards than him (263), but he’s also muffed two punts, and fair caught 43.5% of his punts, whereas DeJean’s muffed none and fair caught just 21.1%. The only other player who I think statistically has a case is USC’s Zachariah Branch (7 returns, 1 fair catch, 158 yards, 1 touchdown), but the electric freshman has had some injuries and doesn’t have the volume to compete.

ON THE BOILERMAKERS

Full-on fumble-rooski. If you’ve followed Purdue football at all this year, you might know that RB Devin Mockobee has gotten pretty loosey-goosey with the ball (six fumbles on the year). He’s stated that it’s because defenders are tackling him differently than they did last year, whatever the heck that means. Either way, he’s not the most fumble-prone player in the Big Ten––that honor goes to Mockobee’s quarterback, Hudson Card, who’s put the ball on the turf eight times this season. That number means he’s tied with Caleb Williams for most fumbles in the Power 69 this year. The combination of Card and Mockobee fumbling 14 times is tops amongst all duos in the Big Ten (though tied with Nebraska’s Jeff Sims, Heinrich Haarberg, and Anthony Grant, which kind of counts as a duo).

They got dudes at defensive end. While Michigan has the best edge rushing pair in the Big Ten on a qualitative level (Derrick Moore and Jaylen Harrell), Purdue has the best edge rushing pair in the Big Ten on a quantitative level. On 273 combined pass rushing snaps, Kydran Jenkins and Nic Scourton (fka Nic Caraway) have wracked up 50 pressures (seven sacks and 10 hits). They’re two of only four Big Ten edge rushers with 20+ pressures on the year, and both have a win rate in the high teens. The Boilermakers have been trying to find them more help on the inside, and have already given 130+ snaps to six defensive tackles. Mo Omonode shows the most promise in the pass rush with a grade of 86.4 on PFF and a win rate of 16.7%, but it’s still a question as to whether or not he (being 290 pounds playing the nose) can hold up well enough against the run for the defense to survive.

NEBRASKA defeated ILLINOIS (20-7)

It was all over in 10 seconds. Halfway through the second quarter, Nebraska RB Anthony Grant punched in a one yard score to make it 10-0. This was not a death sentence for Illinois, as, according to Game on Paper, they still had a 24.2% chance to win the game. Get a field goal or touchdown on your next drive, and you’re probably up to ~40%. But on the ensuing kickoff, a strong wind made the ball come up short, and it was muffed by an upback and recovered by Nebraska. This dropped Illinois’ chances to 18.1%. On the very next play, Nebraska QB Heinrich Haarberg kept the ball on an option and took it 25 yards to the house. Illinois’ win chance? Now just 12.9%. After Illinois failed to acquire a first down on their next drive, they had less than a 10% chance to win the game. A touchdown near the end of the half brought them up to 19.1% again, but it was too little too late at that point, considering the poor nature of the Illinois offense, and the Cornhuskers’ willingness to simply run out the clock.

ON THE CORNHUSKERS

The insensible nature of Haarberg. Above, I wrote about how dreadful Kyle McCord is under pressure. Nebraska’s walk-on QB is actually the complete opposite. His NFL passer rating under pressure (77.3) is nearly identical to his NFL passer rating when kept clean (78.5). He’s managed this despite his receivers dropping five of the 32 balls he’s thrown their way when under duress. He also has yet to throw an INT under pressure. The numbers get even wackier when you look at blitzed vs not. My expectation was that a walk-on freshman QB would struggle to identify blitzes (especially with Turner Corcoran “protecting” his blindside), but Haarberg’s NFL passer rating when blitzed (116.9) is significantly higher than what it is when he’s not blitzed (50.4). I guess I have to be bullish on his future in Lincoln.

Okay, the run defense might be elite. I don’t exactly think Illinois has a great run offense, but they managed 3.8 yards per rush and 3.3 line yards per rush against Penn State (who’s holding teams to 2.3 yards per rush and 2.4 line yards per rush on the season). But the Cornhuskers absolutely whipped the Illini rushing attack, holding them to 1.9 yards per rush and 1.8 line yards per rush. The Illini ended up averaging -0.48 EPA per rush. On the season, Nebraska is allowing the 8th fewest yards per rush in the FBS (2.7), but there are very few other stats that indicate their prowess at stopping the ground game––except for second level and open field yards. These CFBD metrics indicate that the Cornhuskers are very good at limiting big plays on the ground. While they may only “stuff” (zero yards or fewer) about one in eight runs, they’re not letting a lot of guys rip through them either.

ON THE FIGHTING ILLINI

Isaiah Williams deserves better. The Illini receiver isn’t the best pass-catcher in the Big Ten, but he is the most pass-catcher, and that’s certainly worth something. He leads the conference in targets (57), receptions (38), yards (503), and receiving first downs (23), and is 6th in yards after the catch per reception (7.4) and 8th in yards per route run (2.41). Illinois has also decided he’s allowed to catch the ball more downfield: last season, 45.2% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage and just 21.1% were 10+ yards downfield; this year, the former’s dropped to 31.6% and the latter’s increased to 31.6%, making him truly a three-level WR. Unless he has some deep, unshaking love for Champaign, I’m not exactly sure why he’d continue to toil in the abysmal Illini offense next year (88th in OF+ this year), which is his final year of eligibility. Come to Michigan! They’ll use you right! Like Drew Dileo or something!

Jer’Zhan Newton deserves better, too. I’d also encourage “Johnny” to take his talents to Ann Arbor next year, but all signs point to him being drafted in the first round come April. Newton is arguably the best interior pass rusher not just in the Big Ten, but in the country as a whole. Despite constantly facing doubles, he’s 7th in win rate (17.3%) and 4th in true pass set win rate (30.4%) among FBS interior defensive linemen with 60+ pass rush snaps on the season. His 24 pressures lead all interior defensive linemen, and he’s basically doing that without any of the help he got last year: Seth Coleman, Gabe Jacas, and Keith Randolph Jr. each had 30+ pressures a year ago, but all are on pace for no more than 20 each this season. If there’s a reason to dock Newton, it’s his struggles with tackling this year: after only missing five tackles all of last year, he’s missed eight so far this season.

NORTHWESTERN defeated HOWARD (23-20)

Howard is bad at football. Bill Connelly released a combined FBS, FCS, and D2 SP+ ranking on Thursday. In it, Howard was ranked 186th. This is below D2 teams like Ferris State and Grand Valley State. They are pretty bad at football.

Northwestern is also bad at football. The Wildcats averaged just 4.88 yards per play in this game. QB Brendan Sullivan (Ben Bryant was out) was sacked on five of his 29 drop backs. The offensive line is fifth worst in the country in average line yards. The defense let Howard RB Eden James run 21 times for 177 yards(!), including 6.71 yards after contact per attempt. I’m glad Michigan doesn’t play them. It would be boring.