I took a deep dive into the box scores from Pro Football Focus and Game on Paper for every Big Ten game from Week 1. I tried to generate a couple blurbs based on those box scores from the statistics that I found compelling from each game. It could be compelling for the game itself, or maybe for what it portends for the team or player that season. There’s no formula. This is just a very paper-based, statistical approach to evaluating teams. Also, sometimes I watch a little bit of film if I don’t believe the statistics and want to know what the heck is happening (see: Drew Allar).

Note: Games are listed in order of how much I think a Michigan fan will care about the (a) teams playing, and (b) outcome of the game.

MICHIGAN defeats EAST CAROLINA (30-3)

Lots of numbers are stupid.

• Michigan’s EPA/run was -0.21.
• 58% of Michigan’s runs went for 2 yards or fewer.
• The OL only averaged 1.71 line yards per carry.
• Zak Zinter received a 58.8 RBLK grade from PFF.
• Trevor Keegan received a 52.8 RBLK grade from PFF.

Lots more numbers are awesome.

• J.J. McCarthy earned the second highest PASS grade on PFF, behind only the Tulane QB whose stat line is video-game-esque.
• On throws 10+ yards downfield, he was 12/14 with 181 yards and 3 TDs.
• The WRs didn’t drop any balls and caught 4 of the 6 contested balls thrown their way.
• The RBs still averaged 4.6 Y/C despite the ECU linebackers playing kamikaze and J.J. not pulling.
• Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Kris Jenkins generated a combined 8 pressures from the inside.
• Only two defenders allowed double-digit Y/REC despite 13 being thrown at.
• Hausman, Colson and Barrett combined for 12 stops (PFF’s stat for a play that constitutes a failure for the offense) in just 29 combined rush defense snaps (many overlapping).
• The ECU QBs averaged 4.4 yards per drop back.
• Michigan gained 80% of their available yards, and ECU gained 45% of theirs, most against the third stringers.

Anything more that needs to be said about this game has been or will be said better by the guys who run this blog. Let’s look at some other Big Ten games.

OHIO STATE defeats INDIANA (23-3)

Is the Buckeyes’ passing game in trouble? Last year, C.J. Stroud’s time to throw (TTT) was 2.92 seconds per dropback; against Indiana, Kyle McCord’s TTT was 2.65 seconds. Also, Stroud’s TTT against Indiana last year was 3.00. McCord was very solid on throws fewer than 10 yards downfield: 17/19 for 151 yards (7.9 Y/A). He was inept when he threw the ball 10-19 yards downfield: 2/10 for 39 yards (3.9 Y/A) with a pick. However, some of this might be because of the wide receivers: of nine contested catch opportunities, they only brought in one ball. That seems unlikely to repeat.

The Buckeyes’ offensive line is suspect. Since they’re breaking in three new starters, it’s possible they get better over the season, but averaging 2.00 line yards per carry is a pretty alarming indictment of where this offensive line might be at the moment. Since their returners are guards, you’d think they could run up the middle, but when they tried they managed just 2.7 Y/C (12 carries, 32 yards). They didn’t play anyone other than their starting five, which speaks to their lack of options at the position, too.

The Buckeyes’ running backs are confusing.  Of the three running backs who received carries (TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Williams, and Chip Trayanum [a bit oddly, nothing for Dallan Hayden]), only Trayanum averaged more than 4.0 Y/C. He was simply more explosive than the other two: he broke five tackles to their combined three, and gained 79% of his yards after contact compared to their 56%. It’s just so strange to me that in 2021, Henderson was the lead back, then Williams usurped him last year. Will Trayanum overthrow both this year? Who is developing these guys?

The Hoosiers still can’t block. Indiana’s QBs dropped back 22 times and were pressured on 11 of those (50%). OSU didn’t need to bring pressure from the back seven. SS Sonny Styles had two pass rush snaps and LB Tommy Eichenberg had one, but otherwise the only players rushing the quarterbacks were defensive linemen. None of the linemen were particular home-wreckers, though: Tuimoloau had two pressures and Sawyer had one.

Tom Allen trusted Connor Bazelak more than these guys? Anyway you slice it, the Hoosier quarterbacks couldn’t do jack squat. Combined, Brendan Sorsby and Tayven Jackson completed 9 of 20 passes for 82 yards (4.1 Y/A) and ran the ball 9 times for 13 yards (1.4 Y/C). Sorsby saw the bulk of the passing snaps, but his average depth of target (aDOT) was just 7.5, which would’ve ranked second to last amongst Big Ten QBs with 100+ snaps last year (only Brandon Sullivan of Northwestern was lower).

MICHIGAN STATE defeats CENTRAL MICHIGAN (31-7)

Noah Kim: God or bum? Some of the numbers actually make him out to be pretty darn good. He made four “big time throws” and just one “turnover worthy play.” His receivers also dropped four of his passes, which bumps his adjusted completion percentage up to a respectable 65.6%. Also, his average depth of target was a whopping 12.0 yards. That’s really high. On the flip side, his 8.5 Y/A is seriously juiced by the MSU receivers averaging 8.3 yards after the catch. To put this in perspective, Michigan’s WR averaged just 3.2 YAC against ECU. Consequently, 29% of J.J. McCarthy’s yards came after the catch, whereas 54% of Kim’s did. If the MSU receivers averaged five yards fewer per catch, his Y/A would’ve been 5.8 instead. Finally, when he was under pressure, he only completed one of eight passes (two were dropped).

The running game: promising or precarious? RB Nathan Carter was the surprise of the evening for the Spartans. The UConn transfer had 18 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown. He had two 31 yard jaunts, one on the first play from scrimmage. If you remove those two big runs, though, the MSU RBs (Carter, Jalen Berger, and Jordon Simmons) managed 83 yards on 25 carries (3.3 Y/C). On 13 of MSU’s 29 run plays (45%), they gained two yards or fewer. On eight run plays (28%), they gained zero yards or fewer. The offensive line generated just 1.64 line yards per carry.

Sorry, Mr. Kim, but you can’t have seconds. MSU twice turned it over on downs in CMU territory: in the 1st quarter at the CMU 34 yard line, and in the 2nd quarter at the CMU 30 yard line. This might indicate Mel Tucker didn’t have faith in kicker Jonathan Kim, who hadn’t made a kick in his college career coming into this game. However, Kim made a 47 yard FG just minutes before the second of these turnovers-on-down.

Some EPA stuff. Those two aforementioned turnovers-on-downs added up to -7.80 EPA. Sparty was -2.59 offensive EPA on the day. Other than Bert Emanuel Jr.’s 3rd quarter INT, the play that most added to MSU’s win percentage was a 40 yard punt that was downed at the CMU 12 yard line. The play that added the 4th most to MSU’s win percentage was also a punt. Sad.

“We can stop them from running unless they’re passing.” The defensive line held CMU to an exceptional 1.15 line yards per carry. The Spartans also tackled well when the Chippewas ran the football: just two missed tackles on 36 rushing attempts. However, in passing situations, they missed seven tackles on 27 passing plays. CBs Charles Brantley and Angelo Grose each missed two. Same old secondary.

PENN STATE defeats WEST VIRGINIA (38-15)

Note: Inexplicably, Game on Paper has no data for this game, so all stats are from PFF.

Drew Allar isn’t the second best QB in the Big Ten. Yes, he had a good game (21/29; 11.2 Y/A; 3 TDs; 0 INTs). I was impressed by his feel for the pocket, ability to move, and make a play. But there are caveats. Like the MSU receivers, much of Penn State’s passing yardage was gained after the catch (54%). Allar had to find those guys and throw it to them, but upon reviewing the tape one thing becomes ludicrously clear: that Mountaineer secondary is awwwwwful. This shouldn’t be that surprising since: (1) They had the 4th worst coverage grade amongst Power 5 Teams on PFF, and (2) Brian shared the anecdote that the 247 West Virginia guys said this was the worst WVU team they’d ever seen. PFF and I agree that safety Aubrey Burks was the worst culprit (30.4 COV grade). He looked completely lost, always a good two steps behind mentally and physically. All said, I think we need to pump the brakes on Allar. Is he an upper tier Big Ten QB? Yes. But let’s just hold onto our horses for a little bit longer.

The RBs are fine. The OL isn’t. Without Game on Paper, I don’t have a line yards number, but I like to look at Y/C and YAC/C (yards after contact per carry), too. In this case, they reveal that most of the work is being done by the backs, not the line. Nicholas Singleton gained 59 of his 70 yards after contact; Kaytron Allen gained 29 of his 51 yards after contact; and Trey Potts gained 12 of his 6 yards after contact (you read that right). It’s also telling that Allar was pressured on 13 of his 32 drop backs (40.6%). PFF notes that he was blitzed on 20 drop backs (62.5%). Most of the pressure was generated up the middle. Mason Graham, plan for a big day.

Diaz can bring the heat, too. It wasn’t just WVU that blitzed a ton. The PSU defensive coordinator brought blitzers on 19 of QB Graham Greene’s 35 drop backs. Greene is diminutive for a QB (5’11”) and looked like he couldn’t see anything when pressure arrived (34.3% of the time), so he took off, scrambling a total of 6 times for 59 yards. Remove those scrambles, and WVU averages just 4.4 yards per play. That’s pretty good against an offense that’s presently 49th in SP+, but they’ll want to clean up their contain when they go against McCarthy, Taulia, and Luke Altmyer (see: later).

Abdul Carter is grease lightning. The linebacker seemingly couldn’t touch any WVU players for most of the game. He had five attempts to make tackles and missed four of them. His one tackle was a nice sack, firing at Greene from his LB position, and he also generated a total of 5 pressures (sack, 2 hits, 2 hurries).

You put the ball through the uprights. Argh. Sander Sahayak may have lost his place kicking job one game into the year. He narrowly missed two field goals, each within 40 yards, and was replaced by Columbia transfer Alex Felkins, who made three extra points and a 25 yard field goal. Bummer for the kid.

MARYLAND defeats TOWSON (38-6)

Phoning it in, or a victim of bad co-workers? Considering the competition, QB Taulia Tagovailoa’s stat line is more utilitarian than it is impressive: 22/33 for 260 yards (7.9 Y/A) with three TDs and no picks. A deeper look reveals that five of his 11 incomplete passes were dropped. He had to throw the ball away twice due to pressure, too. His stat line when blitzed was elite: 13/16 for 182 yards and three TDs.

“He’s (not) going the distance. He’s (not) going for speed.” RBs Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton II combined for 22 carries, 95 yards, and one TD. It’s an okay Y/C, especially considering neither could break one: Hemby’s longest run was 14 yards and Littleton’s was just eight. And this against Towson?

One great performance, one terrible one. TE Corey Dyches had the best game amongst the pass-catchers. He caught all six balls thrown his way for 108 yards and a touchdown. WR Octavian Smith Jr. was the main culprit of the drops, dropping three balls on seven  targets. He didn’t drop a single ball last year on 17 targets.

Keep those bodies fresh. You thought Michigan rotated its defenders often against ECU? Maryland played 39 different players on defense. Thirty-four of those received 11+ snaps.

Tentative trouble ahead for the Terps. Maryland pressured Towson QB Nathan Kent on 13 of his 40 drop backs. While they sacked him twice, they also allowed him to scramble seven times for 51 yards. The Terrapins play Charlotte next week, and QB Jalon Jones scrambled 53 times for 622 yards last year.

MINNESOTA defeats NEBRASKA (13-10)

Nebraska gives it away, literally. QB Jeff Sims had a few really ugly interceptions (one in Minnesota’s endzone after a lineman took a false start at the one yard line) and Anthony Grant’s fumble with just a few minutes left was immensely costly (-4.52 EPA). I don’t have the foggiest clue how this stat works, but Game on Paper says Nebraska’s “expected turnovers” were just 1.2; four is quite a few more than that.

Nebraska tries to give it away more. The only Cornhusker touchdown came on a broken trick play which could’ve been a turnover. Sims pitched it to Grant, who threw an off-the-mark backwards pass back to the quarterback. The ball took a fortuitous hop right into Sims’ hands, and he turned and launched one downfield to a wide open Alex Bullock, who was just standing in the endzone, no one within 15 yards of him.

Good day for the Bullock boys. The surprise of the Nebraska defense was linebacker John Bullock (Alex’s older brother). He’d only ever received snaps at special teams in previous years, but started this game due to a Nick Henrich injury. PFF has him for four pressures on 11 pass rush snaps, as well as three stops, both of which were first (or tied for first) for Nebraska. If he can continue to step up for this linebacking unit, that would be a huge positive development for the Cornhuskers.

More brake pumping on young QBs. Athan Kaliakmanis did not have a great game against what I don’t think is going to be a very good secondary. He completed 54.5% of his passes, and his adjusted completion percentage ([completions + drops] / [attempts - throwaways]) was 65.9%. Those are last year’s Connor Bazelak numbers. His 4.5 Y/A is almost a full yard less than last year’s Connor Bazelak. Yeech. The Gophers really leaned on him, too: 69% of their plays were passes. Some of this might be because the offensive line wasn’t getting much push––their average line yards were just 1.95.

The Gopher secondary still has some studs. The returning starters in Minnesota’s secondary also played terrifically. Safety Tyler Nubin intercepted Sims twice, including in the final minute of the game to seal it, and CB Justin Walley’s aggressive play led to five stops. PFF dings Justin Walley for the Bullock, broken-play TD, but it’s impossible to know this from a fan perspective unless you were there or have the all-22 film.

Nearly bailed out by special teams. Two big plays went Nebraska’s way on special teams: Minnesota nearly blocked a punt, but instead roughed the punter and gave the Cornhuskers a fresh set of downs; Dragan Kesich returned a kickoff 63 yards to the Gophers’ 35 yard line. The kick return led to Nebraska’s touchdown.

WISCONSIN defeats BUFFALO (38-17)

Did they change the meaning of the word “raid”? And “air”? Despite being an “air raid” offense, just 45% of Wisconsin’s plays were through the air. These include the shovel passes on sweeps, which Luke Fickell stated after the game he basically sees as runs. This helps explain why QB Tanner Mordecai’s aDOT is 3.5, which is more than twice as low as second lowest in the Big Ten through Week One (Taulia at 7.5). He only threw two balls 20+ yards downfield and four balls 10-19 yards downfield (he dropped back 35 times). His two INTs were gross, too. He threw it behind an open tight end on a crossing route, and then directly at a linebacker sitting in a zone. On both, he was jittery in the pocket and didn’t step into his throws. This is somewhat odd considering how well the line protected him; he faced five pressures on 35 dropbacks, and was sacked just once. Combined, his two INTs were worth -13.69 EPA. (It is worth pointing out that WR Skyler Bell dropped an absolute dime of a deep ball that for sure would’ve been a long touchdown.)

Wisconsin runs as Wisconsin does. The running game produced results. Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi combined for 30 carries, 298 yards, and four TDs. Even removing Mellusi’s 89 yard TD run, they averaged 7.2 Y/C. However, the metrics would have you believe that most of those yards can be attributed to the backs rather than the line. The Badger line generated just 1.66 yards per carry, and PFF gave the Badgers a 81.0 RUN score and just a 59.6 RBLK score. Braelon Allen forced nine missed tackles. This would’ve tied his season high from last year. Chez Mellusi had four rushes of 15 or more yards, the same number he had all of last season. Worth noting that the Buffs weren’t good tacklers last year, and they were abominable in this game: they missed 15 tackles, and 10 of those were on run plays.

It’s okay to blame the Methodist here. You can’t knock the Wisconsin defense for “allowing” Buffalo to score 17 points. The Buffs scored on their second drive in the first quarter after a picked wheel route went for 51 yards (Alexander Smith in coverage there). After Mordecai’s first INT, the Buffs took over at the Wisconsin 16, but the Badgers held them to a missed FG. That same kicker then made a 53 yard FG before the half. The final touchdown saw the Buffs start at the Wisconsin 11 yard line after the second Mordecai pick. All said, the Buffs gained just 36% of their available yards on the day. (For context, ECU gained 45% of their available yards against Michigan.)

Quick big yikes! Safety Kamo’i Latu missed five tackles and was in coverage on one of the two Buffalo touchdowns for the Badgers.

IOWA defeats UTAH STATE (24-14)

Cade McNamara/Erick All report. Through one game, McNamara has a higher completion percentage, yards per attempt, average depth of target, big time throw to turnover worthy play rate, and touchdown to interception rate than Spencer Petras had last year. I think he’s going to be an upgrade at the position. Deployed frequently from the slot, Erick All caught three of four targets for 15 yards and a touchdown. PFF thought he had a poor game run blocking (50.5).

Bring in the big boys. We tend to think of Michigan as a “heavy” team. Lots of 12 personnel, sometimes 22, sometimes 13, even 14 at the goal line. Against ECU, Michigan averaged 1.52 TEs per snap. Against Utah State, the Hawkeyes averaged 1.93 TEs per snap. Luke Lachey played the most snaps amongst skill position players, and Erick All played the third most.

Trouble in the trenches. Iowa’s offensive line play has fallen off a cliff in recent years. It doesn’t look like that’s changing this year. The OL generated just 0.96 line yards per carry, and this against a defense that is currently ranked 94th in Connelly’s first iteration of SP+ this year. The Hawkeyes averaged -0.38 EPA/play while running, and 50% of their runs went for 2 yards or fewer. RB Kaleb Johnson will have to continue to be incredibly elusive (second most missed tackles forced per carry in the Big Ten last year for backs with 100+ touches) if this ground game wants to make anything happen.

Stay away from that quarterback. Utah State runs a short (4.6 aDOT) and quick passing game (2.43 TTT), so they may just throw a lot of dump offs when they see pressure, but QB Cooper Legas was incredibly efficient facing pressure (8.2 Y/A) and much less so when kept clean (3.1 Y/A). His efficiency last year was the opposite under pressure (5.7 Y/A) versus when kept clean (7.1 Y/A). Is this a freak occurrence? Or should the Hawkeyes actually pursue a strategy of dropping 8 guys into coverage on passing downs?

Jack Campbell who? Obviously, losing the Butkus Award-winning LB and a second team All-Big Ten LB (Seth Benson) is difficult to overcome, but if one game against a bad Mountain West team is any indication, Jay Higgins is up to the task. Higgins played 213 snaps last year, backing up Campbell and Benson, and showed out in Week One: 13 total tackles; 8 stops; and 14 yards allowed against 7 targets. Nick Jackson struggled against the Aggies, but started for three years at Virginia before transferring, and was pretty solid in that time.

ILLINOIS defeats TOLEDO (30-28)

Luke Altmyer might be a dual-threat QB. He had a very nice day throwing the ball (18/26; 7.9 Y/A; 2 TDs; 1 INT) and was trusted to throw it downfield (9.7 aDOT). He also had 5 designed runs for 38 yards, and 3 scrambles for 38 more yards (9.5 Y/C). He doesn’t have a history in college of running (very limited sample size), but his 247 recruiting profile indicates he’s always had the athletic ability to pick up some yards on the ground. This could be a significant upgrade over Tommy DeVito.

The offensive line might be dogwater. Not only was Altmyer under pressure on 13 of his 32 drop backs (40.6%), but the big boys up front got very little push against the Rockets. RBs Josh McCray and Reggie Love III combined for 93 yards on 23 carries, but if you remove Love’s 29 yard long (a play on which he literally is surrounded by 4,000 pounds of man meat, and somehow squeaks free as if by magic), the longest run of the day for an RB was 11 yards, and the RBs averaged 2.9 Y/C.

“Nope, the other guy’s just a bum.” Is Terrance Taylor an All-American? The edge is in his 6th year in the Toledo program, and the last two years have been limited by injury. But against Illinois he generated 9 pressures (2 sacks, 4 hits, 3 hurries). PFF doesn’t really indicate who’s at fault, but the tape does: Taylor absolutely whipped RT Zy Crisler. The tackle’s kickoff was slow, so Taylor started by beating him around the edge, then switched to a pretty vicious spin move that resulted in a sack and later a brutal hit on Altmyer on 4th down that would’ve given Toledo the win had he been a tenth of a second quicker.

Miles Scott is Mike Sainristl 2.0. Obviously, this take is heresy, but Scott is a former WR who now plays in Illinois’ secondary, so the comp had to be made. In his first game ever, he (a) led the team in snaps played with 89; (b) graded out as their highest defender on PFF by some margin; (c) recorded a pick-six and a PBU; (d) allowed two completions on six targets for 11 yards; (e) recorded six tackles. That is an absurd debut game. It may be a one-off, but he also might help fill the hole left behind by Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown’s departures.

Aaron Henry: Wunderkid or moop? Last year’s excellent DC Ryan Walters now coaches Purdue. Over the course of 13 games, his Illinois defensive players generated 249 pressures. Against Toledo, they generated just 10. (If you forgot, Toledo is a MAC team, not a Big Ten team.) The Game on Paper stats for this game are a little wonky, but the Rockets also gained 74% of the available yards. This is a very small sample size, but did Bielema promote Aaron Henry a little too soon?

PURDUE loses to FRESNO STATE (35-39)

How bad is the Boilermaker defense? In Bill Connelly’s final preseason SP+ ranking, he had Fresno State as the 63rd best team in the country with the 77th best offense. That offense just gained 75% of the available yards against Purdue, posted an offensive EPA of 16.73, and ran 81 plays. Bulldog QB Mikey Keene completed 70.5% of his passes for 366 yards and four touchdowns. His previous career high was 238 yards. Keene was most successful throwing downfield, too: he completed 10 of 16 passes that traveled 10 yards downfield or more for 177 yards (11.1 Y/A).

The biggest culprits? Tackling remains an issue for the Boilermakers. They missed 12 tackles in this game. Starting safeties Dillon Thieneman and Sanoussi Kane missed a combined five. The linebackers and safeties were thrown at 13 times in coverage. All 13 of these balls were caught for 145 yards and 2 TDs. Also, despite seeing an average depth of target of 7.0 on his targets, CB Cam Allen allowed 16.8 Y/REC.

Also, is the offense good?  Hudson Card’s debut could’ve gone better. Remove his 84 yard TD pass to Deion Burks––a slant route that led to Burks bouncing off four Bulldog defenders and winning a foot race––and his stats are as follows: 16/29 (55.2%); 170 yards (5.9 Y/A); 1 TD and no picks. If Fresno State were in the Big Ten last year, they would’ve scored the worst coverage grade on PFF in the conference. Purdue’s running game struggled, too. Backs Devin Mockobee, Dylan Downing, and Tyrone Tracy ran the ball 24 times for 79 yards (3.3 Y/C). Much of this was because the line got very little push, generating just 1.12 average line yards. One-third of their rushes went for zero yards or fewer.

RUTGERS defeats NORTHWESTERN (24-7)

Ben Bryant will earn a graduate degree. I’m not sure what he’s studying in graduate school, but studying film this year seems like a lost cause. Rutgers’ defense is pretty solid, so there might be brighter Saturdays in his future, but good lord: pressured on 17 of 43 drop backs; sacked 5 times; hit on another 4 drop backs; a ground game that produced 16 yards on 10 carries outside the QB position. Bryant admitted after the game that he could play better, too: 2 INTs, 2 fumbles, 5 turnover worthy throws, and 4.7 Y/A agrees with that sentiment. Focus on your degree, son. It’s all right.

Ask again later re: Gavin Wimsatt. I was surprised to see that Bill Connelly had Northwestern as the 20th best defense in his preseason SP+ rankings. That seems extremely generous, but it bodes well for Wimsatt’s prospects. He didn’t have a good stat line (17/29 completions; 5.6 Y/A; 10 carries for 27 yards), but going 11/11 on throws between 0 and 10 yards downfield is solid. (Going 6/18 on throws further than 10 yards downfield is less promising.)

Bryce Gallagher, tackling machine. The Northwestern linebacker was everywhere. Depending on where you look, he either had 19 (ESPN) or 15 (PFF) tackles. Either way, that’s a lot of tackles. PFF also gave him 8 stops. The Rutgers run game can’t be very good (2.9 Y/C in this game), but Gallagher also had himself a game. (Mind you, not a perfect one, as he missed two tackles.)

Greg Schiano = Man with Cajones.  In the first quarter, the Scarlet Knights went for it on 4th down three times and converted all three attempts. Some of this is situational: the first one was a 4th and 1 at their own 48 yard line, and the other two would’ve been very sad punts or very long field goals (kicker Jai Patel was playing in his first game). But trusting your lackluster running game and inaccurate quarterback to convert these opportunities rather than punting and forcing Northwestern to march the field certainly says something.

A.J. Henning report. The former Michigan Wolverine had the most statistically productive receiving game of his career: 4 receptions for 42 yards. He ran the second most routes, saw the second most targets (both behind Cam Johnson), caught the one contested ball thrown his way, made one tackler miss, and made the longest play (26 yards) for the Northwestern offense.

No fireworks? This party sucks. Game on Paper defines an explosive play as any pass play that earned 2.4 EPA or more and any run play that earned 1.8 EPA or more. In a more exciting game, this number is usually in the double-digits (ex: Purdue-Fresno State created 15 total explosive plays). A less exciting game should have high single-digits (ex: Iowa-Utah State created 9 total explosive plays). A very unexciting game will only have a handful (ex: Northwestern-Rutgers created 6 total explosive plays). (Note: Michigan-ECU also had 6 total explosive plays, all Michigan’s.