Statistics of UGA and UM
UGA's defensive statistics are elite. I've heard that they haven't played good teams (or at least good offensive teams), and I wanted to see if that was true. I started compiling their stats and thought I'd do a comparison to UM's defense as well...then I went down a rabbit hole and just did stats for offense and defense for both teams. Enjoy!
This is my first diary entry (at least since the one I secretly wrote in through middle school) and I'm not really sure if this is the right place for this post, so feel free to tear me apart in the replies.
TL;DR at the bottom.
Georgia Defense
The offenses that UGA has faced have an average rank of 53.8 in offensive efficiency, 57.1 in scoring offense, and 60.3 in total offense. These numbers don't and won't include FCS Charleston Southern that they played in November. UGA has given up averages of 9.75 points and 265.5 yards per game while pitching 3 shutouts, which are pretty incredible stats. Averages don't tell everything though, so here's a look at what they've done against some Top 25-ish offenses in order of date played:
- Alabama (#3 efficiency, #4 scoring, #6 total) - 41 points, 536 yards (7.7 YPP)
- Arkansas (#28 efficiency, #44 scoring, #30 total) - shutout, 162 yards (3.6 YPP)
- Kentucky (#22 efficiency, #33 scoring, #40 total) - 13 points, 243 yards (3.5 YPP)
- Tennessee (#18 efficiency, #8 scoring, #16 total) - 17 points, 387 yards (4.6 YPP)
The comparison: Michigan ranks #5 in offensive efficiency, #13 in scoring offense, and #18 in total offense. They should be able to score at least 20, maybe 30 points. Georgia hasn't faced many run-heavy teams (nobody wants to run at Jordan Davis to be fair), and Michigan's ability to have a different playmaker every game is tough to prepare for.
Georgia Offense
The defenses UGA has faced have an average rank of 52.4 in defensive efficiency, 59.5 in scoring defense, and 57.8 in total defense. UGA has earned averages of 38 points and 439.1 yards per game. Here's how they fared against the best defenses they played:
- Clemson (#4 efficiency, #2 scoring, #9 total) - 10 points, 256 yards (4.2 YPP)
- Auburn (#20 efficiency, #33 scoring, #59 total) - 34 points, 432 yards (6.2 YPP)
- Kentucky (#37 efficiency, #32 scoring, #25 total) - 30 points, 416 yards (8.9 YPP)
- Alabama (#5 efficiency, #20 scoring, #8 total) - 24 points, 449 yards (5.8 YPP)
The comparison: Michigan ranks #11 in defensive efficiency, #4 in scoring defense, and #13 in total defense. They should hold UGA to less than 30 points (probably from 17-24), although bowl game preparation tends to favor the offense. Part of the reason UGA's offense scores so much is likely field position (their yards per game are a little low for how much they score), but they move the ball very well.
Now for Michigan; are they as good as they seem or is the B1G soft this year?
Michigan Defense
The offenses that UM has faced have an average rank of 65.8 in offensive efficiency, 77.5 in scoring offense, and 71.3 in total offense. They gave up averages of 16.1 points and 316.2 yards per game. Here are the their stats against best offenses they played:
- Western Michigan (#48 efficiency, #49 scoring, #15 total) - 14 points, 310 yards (4.5 YPP)
- Nebraska (#34 efficiency, #71 scoring, #24 total) - 29 points, 431 yards (7.2 PPG)
- Michigan State (#16 efficiency, #39 scoring, #41 total) - 37 points, 395 yards (6.0 YPP)
- Ohio State (#1 efficiency, #1 scoring, #1 total) - 27 points, 458 yards (5.8 YPP)
The comparison: UGA ranks #2 in offensive efficiency, #7 in scoring offense, and #27 in total offense. Michigan held OSU to 27 points but allowed 458 yards still (and 394 through the air). One weakness has been in middle range yardage, with slot receivers and TE's. Brock Bowers is a certifiable weapon, having speed to run away from DB's and magnetic hands (just watch this entire video, it's only 3:26 long). Michigan will need to get DB's on him all game long, and with a month of prep they should be able to. However, UGA also gets a month of prep so can develop schemes to get him open as well as open up other weapons because of him. Pickens will likely be at full health or close to it, which adds another dangerous weapon that UM's DB's may be able to stop from scoring, if they can't shut him down completely.
Michigan Offense
The defenses that UM has faced have an average rank of 51.3 in defense efficiency, 56.8 in scoring defense, and 60.7 in total defense. UM got averages of 37.6 points and 451.9 yards per game. Here's what they did against the best defenses they played:
- Wisconsin (#2 efficiency, #6 scoring, #1 total) - 38 points, 365 yards (4.9 YPP)
- Penn State (#9 efficiency, #7 scoring, #36 total) - 21 points, 361 yards (5.2 YPP)
- Ohio State (#38 efficiency, #25 scoring, #50 total) - 42 points, 487 yards (8.0 YPP)
- Iowa (#8 efficiency, #14 scoring, #19 total) - 42 points, 461 yards (7.4 YPP)
The comparison: UGA ranks #1 in offensive efficiency, #1 in scoring defense, and #2 in total defense. They are elite. However, UM has shown that they can score against elite defenses. Against mediocre defenses, UM has put up points in the first half and fizzled, but against elite teams they score more in the second half. They don't seem to adjust if they do well in the first half - if it ain't broke, don't form a plan in case the defense adjusts.
Conclusion/TL;DR
As far as numbers go, both teams have proven their offenses can score against good competition. UM's offense has been inconsistent, displaying poor second-half performances against mediocre teams, while UGA has scored consistently with one bad showing against an elite Clemson defense. UM has played multiple elite defenses and put up great numbers against almost all of them. UM will try to build an early lead and wear down UGA, while UGA has excellent yards per play and will try to score quickly and often. If it's a close game, I lean toward UM because of the adversity they've overcome this year compared to the lack thereof for UGA. The X-factors will be Brock Bowers, who scares me more than my wife telling me we need to talk, and the playmakers on UM's offense. I think both teams will score over 30, and it will be something like 34-31 with UM heading to the championship.
December 8th, 2021 at 12:28 PM ^
Michigan's offense has been pretty consistent the last 3-5 games. They've also gotten healthy on their interior O line.
December 8th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^
It will be facinating to see what McDonald comes up with to defend Bowers. They'll probably attack him a few different ways, but as a base, I guess the most logical thing would be to let Dax take him? I hope this isn't the case. As much as I love Dax he seems to have a propensity for being a step behind or allowing receivers to get between him and the ball too often (even when it good position). I don't know if its possible scheme wise, but in terms of one-on-one defenders I see Gray as the better match up. In obvious passing situations, I'd like to Hill-Green or Colston tasked with jamming the shit out of Bowers off the line then backing out to take away shorter stuff, with a DB helping over the top. UGA has talent at WR esp with Pickens coming back, but I'll live with playing off coverage on those guys and forcing the Bennett to win the game throwing outside the numbers.
December 8th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^
Can we take a look at Michigan's offense since the MSU game, and throw out the first 7? It was that point where it opened up the pass game, unlocked Anthony, and started using more weapons in more ways.
Nevertheless, maybe UGA will focus on numbers that include pedestrian pass information from Washington, Nebraska, IU, et all... Aside from the glaringly obvious threat (Donovan Edwards), season long numbers are going to be misleading. Hopefully, Georgia will be less prepared for the diversity of Michigan's pass game while laser focused on Haskins. I also think they'll tend to disregard the WR group a little, because there is no standout, go-to guy in the group. They all have relatively low numbers that don't scream 'COVER ME'!
I'm bullish on Michigan's offense! I think it's the most diverse and unpredictably dangerous unit of the four teams left. Sure, you can predict they're going to run between the tackles. But the options built around those plays will kill you dead.
There's also the 'SEC speed' thing, too. Corum's recent film isn't going to stand out because he's still been hobbled. He said he was ~85% for the B1G CG - if at full speed, he can outrun 5-star LBs pretty easily. Edwards can also fly, and Wilson and Henning have 5-star speed, too. All of that will be needed to get outside of Jordan Davis and away from the LBs.
I'm sure Gattis will draw up a nice plan with Harbaugh and have it ready to go...
December 8th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
There's definitely a point where UM picked it up, but I'd say that all year they played well against good competition and okay against poor competition all year (with Maryland being the exception). I think Georgia will plan for all 3 backs because they've all shown they can hurt defenses. UM's offense is very unpredictable still, but (maybe it's just the residual BPONE in me) I can see that hurting them too by not having a go-to when they start to struggle.
December 10th, 2021 at 9:58 AM ^
Hopefully, Georgia will be less prepared for the diversity of Michigan's pass game
I think it's unambitious to hope the opponent brings anything less than their A game. Georgia is a great team with great coaches and they will be prepared for us. We have to believe in our ability to straight up outplay them. I think that's what's going to happen, they won't be able to balance our run and pass attack, and they won't have an answer for Aiden because the rest of our defense will not allow them to avoid him.
December 12th, 2021 at 9:49 PM ^
Probably more important than the unlocking of Andrel Anthony has been the unleashing of Donovan Edwards. I am not making any bold predictions but I have a feeling that Donovan will be an important player against Georgia.
December 8th, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
thanks for this - really interesting summary!
December 8th, 2021 at 2:31 PM ^
One point of hope is that Michigan has done two things that Georgia has not:
1) Scored > 30 points against top 10 defenses (Wisconsin and Iowa)
2) Held a top 10 offense to < 30 points (OSU)
Georgia's offense struggled against Clemson and Alabama, and their defense got shredded by Alabama.
The difference between the SEC and B1G this year seems less about average quality, and more that the SEC looks like Bama, Georgia, and a bunch of mediocrity. Meanwhile the B1G has a wider distribution, with a few truly awful teams, a few good to great ones, and a smaller middle.
December 10th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
Meh, idc so much about B1G versus SEC. Is Vanderbilt worse than Rutgers? Idk. Is Nebraska comparable to Kentucky? Who cares?
Michigan will show they're better than Georgia on New Year's Eve and that's what matters.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^
'Bama blew the doors off Georgia's #1-ranked defense. The stats weren't all that predictive, perhaps because they can't account for the difference inspired performances make in rivalry or championship games.
And sometimes teams lose for inexplicable reasons, as happened to us against MSU, and to 'Bama against A&M.
The teams look well-matched on paper. Whether that'll be the case in the game is anyone's guess.
December 9th, 2021 at 7:39 AM ^
It's crazy to me that Bama put up 41 on them, I didn't include the FCS game, and their defense is still historically good. Bama seemed to be able to score whenever they wanted to - hopefully Michigan shows up with a wealth of weapons all ready to have a great game and can score however they want to.
December 12th, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
That's Bama.
A lot of talent. Not a lot of discipline (at least this season), that tends to lose focus on less talented opponents but when they're dialed in, which they do when the level of competition demands it, they're quite the force.
Michigan is definitely in the "anything can happen" zone, but looking at the talent, one has to favor Georgia, even with Bama putting up 41 on that defense.
Michigan has to play pretty much flawlessly, and everyone has to bring their A game that day, AND has to win the turnover battle.
All possible. But not likely (in the literal "<50% chance" sense of the expression "not likely").
It's been a magical season though, and anything can happen.
Go Blue!
December 8th, 2021 at 6:12 PM ^
This will be similar to The Game. The defense will hold serve, maybe more. The offense needs to score and at a pace of their choice. Punt=TOs.
December 8th, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
Very well done. Thank you.
December 8th, 2021 at 9:04 PM ^
Nice write up...
I like your prediction....
Based on how you laid out the stats, Georgia seems to have the edge
But football is an emotional sport, and if we focus and play like we we did vs OSU then we will win this thing.
The strategy does need to change against Georgia, but if we play inspired we can win
December 8th, 2021 at 10:35 PM ^
I think our coaches have demonstrated themselves to be elite teachers, and that this extra month of prep is going to make a huge difference.
December 9th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
I've always wondered just how much preparation on a week-to-week basis is opponent dependent. Fans will say a team 'looked past' a lesser opponent ahead of a rivalry but I'd love to know what that really looks like inside a program. Even top programs are going to have a limited number of analysts-- will they entirely ignore a MACcake and instead prep for Penn State the next week? Or how much effort is spent sort of war gaming how a particular opponent would attack your team given their personnel. Like, if you're Georgia and you have basically every tool at your disposal are they 100% on Michigan until 12/31 or is it 60/40 as you figure you're likely playing Bama again? And would that difference matter?
December 9th, 2021 at 12:32 AM ^
"... who scares me more than my wife telling me we need to talk" i.e. FEAR LEVEL = 10 !!!
So looking forward to this game.
December 9th, 2021 at 3:10 AM ^
Nice summary, thanks.
The season-long numbers support the idea that Georgia has a better body of work, but not a lot better. They certainly don't have a win like ours over OSU. I don't see anything in these numbers that would lead me to think they should be favored by as much or more as OSU was. This looks more like a toss-up than a blowout.
Still, the way we ended the year gives me confidence. We might lose - we might even get out-coached or out-played - but it won't be because we're not deserving or don't belong.
Hail!
December 9th, 2021 at 7:35 AM ^
Great info! I might seem homerish on this one but it seems like we will be able to play with these guys!
December 9th, 2021 at 10:05 AM ^
I get the impression that upsets occur for two reasons,
a) the better team has a bad day/game (multiple unforced errors, drops, penalties)
b) the inferior team is in fact inferior but rather than having three people on defense that are a three steps slow they only have two people on defense that only one step slow and that is enough to take away most of the supposed juggernaut's offense. So if the better team is not well prepared for a slugfest they allow their few weaknesses to carry the day.
Sometimes offenses or defenses are not as good as their stats because the other side is so dominant. It is very hard to back out the effect of a good offense is for a defense and if the offense is slowed down, then the defense is exposed (offenses have more tries at testing/probing the defense.).
December 9th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
We need to talk
December 9th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
Great write up! I was planning on looking into these things on my own actually so this saved a ton of time. I too like our chances and think we match up solidly scheme and personnel wise.
One thing to note, Pickens is coming off of an ACL tear in the Spring. So while he is back he appears to be on a snap count and the types of routes he'll be able to run will be limited. In the SEC championship game he only ran fades and go routes and missed the bulk of the second, third, and beginning of the 4th quarter.
December 10th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
He's been very limited, but with an additional 3 weeks of rest and prep, I think he'll be back to almost full strength. If he is, he could be a dangerman because there is no game plan involving him so far this year.
December 9th, 2021 at 5:12 PM ^
Given how we stared down OSU (with a better quarterback) and the terror trio of Olave/Wilson/that other guy, Bowens doesn’t frighten me. May I refer you to my football advisor, Randy the Plumber?
December 10th, 2021 at 11:11 AM ^
We gave up 334 yards to that trio, and they didn't have a stud TE. OSU's passing game was better than UGA for sure, but how many yards can UM afford to give up in the air? I'd say under 250.
December 11th, 2021 at 9:14 PM ^
I like that but knock about 10 points per team on the final. It’s gonna be a nail biter 21-20 Mi
December 11th, 2021 at 11:17 PM ^
Georgia has the best defense, but having faced the #2, #8, and #9 defenses and done well gives me hope.
December 14th, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
Thank you for this! Unlike with most Bo & Harbaugh teams that lose momentum going into bowl games, this team looks strong going to South Florida because of how they built into who they were over the season and the tough games were back loaded October 30th on. UGA established an identity that could beat most teams in the 1st half of a game and didn't have to play complete games. Nothing happened to the Dawgs that forced changes (like Spartan game) and with all those 4th quarter blow outs notice how Jordan Davis got tired so quick? That was a symbol of a defense that if it gets moved around doesn't have the conditioning; The month of December is the LAST month of the year a college team can get in condition; Different practice schedule, final exams{even if a person doesn't take them}, holidays, travel/bowl commitments, Florida weather and uber ESPN college football attention means you better have gotten in condition and had it tested in November. **checks November notes** Dawgs: Missouri, Tennessee, Charleston Southern, Yellow Jackets; Michigan: IU, Penn State, Maryland, Buckeyes; Yikes! IU & Penn State were pre-season top 25, Buckeyes top 4, and many people thought Michigan coming off 2-4 2020 would struggle on road against Terps! I bet the Dawg defensive starters NEVER had a November complete game! "Hail" I just talked myself into a Michigan win!
December 16th, 2021 at 10:22 AM ^
That's a great point, and I think it will be the difference in this game too. UGA's first adversity came against Bama and it was their last experience. UM faced adversity throughout the second half of their season (and a little in the first half). The teams only get 20 hours a week for bowl practice (normally 15 practices). Can UGA use those practices to refocus, and can UM use those practices to keep focus? Hopefully, the players listen to the media - UGA is favored, so they might get complacent, and UM might come out on fire.
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