Based on conversations I've had over the years with a good friend and fellow NFL Draft fan from my college days, I decided to take up a project trying to predict the NFL Draft using so called "mock drafts" where fans, media members, and expert analysts attempt to predict the outcome of the NFL Draft based on their opinions about players and using all different kinds of methodologies. Basically, I wanted to see if the power of the "crowd" could provide some insights into how the NFL Draft plays out and make the NFL Draft be even more fun to follow for me.

With that being said, I've written the first in a series of blogs I've been working on to lay out the theory behind what I'm doing and eventually I'll dig into more methodological questions and finally do some analysis of the 2018 NFL Draft and use the lessons learned to make a prediction of the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft.

Link here:  https://benjaminrobinson.github.io/2019/03/25/2019-03-11-grinding-the-mocks-a-theory-of-mock-drafts/

In the meantime, I thought you my fellow MGoBlog-gers would love to get an idea of where the mock drafts have our three highest mock drafted prospects:  Rashan Gary, Devin Bush, and Chase Winovich.  As we've known for a long time (probably since he signed with us), Rashan Gary is a surefire first round draft prospect, Devin Bush lit up the combine and went from a fringe first to early second round prospect to solidly appearing in the first rounds (on average) of the mock drafts that I've been tracking, and finally our favorite golden-locked defender Chase Winovich is a solid second round prospect with a month left in the draft process.  Here are some of the high level summary statistics about our boys:

Here's the mock draft stock chart of our top prospect Rashan Gary.  His stock is trending down at the moment but don't worry, it might just mean that the mocks see him more like a top 15 player instead of a top 10 player.  Time will tell as we get closer to the draft but anecdotally Montez Sweat of Mississippi State, who blew up the combine even more than Gary did, might be taking some of those top 10 mock draft selections that Gary had been enjoying earlier on in the draft process.

Here's the beautiful upward sloping curve of Devin Bush's mock draft stock chart.  After the combine his stock has exploded with his stock currently in the 13 to 19 range (solidly the second linebacker drafted along with Devin White of LSU).  Its really gratifying to finally have people see how great of a player he is.  I think Bryan has been trying to tell folks on Twitter how laughable it has been to say that Devin Bush does not have "sideline to sideline speed" when there are so many examples of him taking away angles from Michigan opponent.  Well, the combine proved he has that speed and more!

Finally, Chase Winovich!  Solidly a second rounder but hopefully moving up.  His injury doesn't seem to have played a factor in his draft process so far, which is good to see, and I think plenty of teams running a 3-4 scheme would love to have him as an OLB or as the hand-in-the-ground defensive end in plenty of schemes, especially in the NFL when most teams' base defense is nickel.

The other Michigan draft prospects (Higdon, Gentry, and Long) really don't have enough mock drafts to say anything interesting.  Otherwise, I would include them too!

If you'd like to check out my analysis of mock draft data from the past two years, feel free to check that out here:

https://benjrobinson2.shinyapps.io/2018_NFL_Mock_Draft_Performance_Tracker/