One of the wonderful consequences of winning last week is that we've heard a lot in the past few days about not just our game against Iowa, but our potential playoff opponents should (when) we win. We were even graced with an extra Opponent Watch this week, giving us a glimpse into each potential opponent. We have one Saturday left before bowl season, and many of us may want to take advantage by watching as much football as possible before our showdown in Indianapolis.

The Pac-12 and Conference USA Championship games have already ended. Because of their playoff implications, we have seen more on the Big 12, American, and SEC Championship matchups than us Michigan fans might normally digest. Of course, Notre Dame being Notre Dame, they don't get a fancy Championship game to play in, but I'll take any opportunity to say To Hell With Notre Dame.

In order to fully take in this day of Conference Championships, I want to take a look at a couple of the matchups that will have no impact on Michigan and thus won't get covered anywhere else on mgoblog. In a few short months, we will find ourselves in the abyss of OT season (hopefully with some shiny hardware in Schembechler Hall to keep us company). I won't cover the ACC game or the MAC game, the former because it's at the same time as our game and who's gonna be watching it, Brenda, and the latter because it's NIU and we know them. Let's take advantage of the football while we have it, shall we?

 

Mountain West Championship Game: Utah State Aggies vs. 19 San Diego State Aztecs (3pm EST, FOX)

Utah State is 9-3 on the season, with some impressive wins to boot. They stunned Washington State in Pullman in their opening game 26-23, won a shootout at division rival Air Force 49-45, destroyed defending conference champs San Jose State, and won all of their road games. However, they also somehow avoided the only 3 teams in the West division with winning records, and lost home routs to Boise State and Wyoming, neither of which are great this year. (Side note: the Mountain West conference has two divisions, the Mountain division, and the West division. This has now been noted.) They're #61 in FPI offensive efficiency, #101 in defense, and #50 on special teams.

Their go-to on offense is throws from Arkansas State transfer QB Logan Bonner (who followed coach Blake Anderson) to one of the top receivers in the country, Deven Thompkins, who has over 1,500 yards on the season. On defense, they rely on LB Justin Rice, who leads the team with 105 total tackles and 3 interceptions, but don't have much else going for them. They will try to push the ball down the field with big plays through the air. Their top 4 receivers have 11.9, 14.3, 17.7, and 17.9 YPC, and they all have over 30 receptions. A win for USU comes through Bonner getting the ball to his guys for chunk plays. He's thrown 32-10 on the year while being sacked 20 times, so turnovers or protection could spell disaster for USU if they aren't careful.

San Diego State (11-1), led by Mountain West Coach of the Year Brady Hoke, will play this game at home in LA Galaxy's Dignity Health Sports Park as they have all their home games this year while they await the construction of their new stadium in San Diego. This is a good team with a very weird quirk in that their best player is probably their kicker. Matt Araiza is by far the nation's best punter and has reached celebrity status on this team. He is about to break the record for average yards per punt in a season (over 51 yards), and already holds records for most 50 and 60 yard punts in a season in NCAA history. He flips the field repeatedly and gives the Aztec's the dangerous ability to pin teams deep on the regular. The field position game is huge for a team with a lackluster offense, but an excellent defense and of course special teams.

Early season Power 5 wins over Arizona (meh) and Utah (impressive transitive property win!) pushed them into the top 25. However, a loss against Fresno State disrupted the perfect season dream. They rely mainly on establishing the run, but they aren't suuuuper great at it. Their bell cow Greg Bell (ha!) has a chance to top 1,000 yards on the season in this game, while they shuffle between two meh QBs in Lucas Johnson and Jordon Brookshire. Johnson has been starting of late, but had a rough outing against Boise State last week and Brookshire took advantage to throw 11-15 for almost 200 yards and a TD to get the win.

The defense is bruising, and in the top 10 in the country in most categories. They were the last team in the country to allow a rushing touchdown this season. DE Cameron Thomas is one of the best edge rushers in the country, leading the team with 10.5 sacks. Safety Patrick McMorris leads the team with 79 tackles and 3 interceptions, and flies all over the field.

Analysis: The fascinating strength against strength matchup here between USU's potent passing and SDSU's smothering defense will decide the game. The Aztecs are favored by almost a touchdown, but you have to figure the Aggies could win with some big plays. Araiza will keep them deep on their own side of the field for most drives, so they'll need the chunk plays to be the difference. It doesn't matter if you start at your 10 yard line if you can score from there in one play. If Bonner gashes their defense for big plays that end in touchdowns, they could put SDSU in a hole they can't climb out of. Otherwise, this could be a back and forth, low-scoring game that's decided on turnovers and field position - just what SDSU wants.

 

Sun Belt Championship Game: Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. 24 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (3:30pm EST, ESPN)

Appalachian State is actually favored to win this game -2.5 at the moment, despite the lower ranking. App St. (10-2) lost to UL earlier this season 41-13 (oof!). But during the 6 games they beat then undefeated Coastal Carolina the very next week, and haven't lost since. Their last 3 opponents they held to 7 points or less, and App. St. is averaging 40 points over that 6 game stretch. They're playing their best ball of the season, and have all the momentum going into this matchup. They've played themselves into the top 50 in FPI in all 3 phases (and #14 in defense).

The Mountaineers have a very balanced offense, with 2 backs running over 700 yards and 3 receivers catching for over 700 yards this season. Defensively, they have one of the best groups of linebackers anywhere. They get a lot of pressure on QBs from the 2nd level, but they also get a ton of scores on defense. Two LBs have over 100 yards just on interceptions, one of them being Trey Cobb, who had a 100 yard pick 6 against South Alabama. Then add CB Stephen Jones Jr. into the mix and you get 3(!!!) more pick 6's out of 5 interceptions and have a scary defense that can turn any game on its head very quickly.

Louisiana is 11-1, but are riding an 11-game win streak after dropping their opener at Texas. They aren't near as lights out on defense, though, so the margins of victory have been less than impressive. Over half of their wins have come thanks to one-score leads. They're like the opposite of Nebraska, basically. QB Levi Lewis is 18-4 for the year and completes over 60% of his passes. Despite that, the Ragin' Cajuns lack a true number 1 WR. No player has more receiving yards than WR Peter LeBlanc (I couldn't rule out relation to Matt or The Deceiver with my quick google search) with 350, but 5 players have between 285-350 yards.

Instead, they rely on their RBs to carry the rock, and they do it very well. Chris Smith and Montrell Johnson split carries and both have over 700 yards this year. Emani Bailey also has over 400 yards himself, and all 3 players average around 6 yards per carry. Levi Lewis is a threat to run as well and has 226 yards. Defensively, UL pressures the QB well, particularly with Chauncey Manac, who has 9.5 sacks this season. They also tend to force a lot of fumbles, recovering 11 as a team this year. They'll allow points, but they excel at making big plays and getting the ball back to their offense in big moments. One other thing to watch for with UL is their kicking woes. Their starting kicker has been done for the year since late September with a hip injury and the backup is 3-8 on FGs. Meanwhile, App. St's kicker is 18/19 on the year.

Analysis: In their first game, UL grabbed the lead quickly and never let it go. They scored 3 TDs on their first 3 drives, all in the 1st quarter. App State QB Chase Brice had an unusually bad game as they tried to recover. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, contributing 3 of his team's 4 turnovers that game on his own. The running game wasn't much help, churning out 2.7 YPC for 78 yards. UL was able to rush for almost 250 yards and ice the game away.

But these are two different teams now. Since that loss, Brice has thrown over 1,400 yards, completed 60% of his passes, and gone 14-5 in TDs-INTs. Their defense hasn't allowed the same kind of 1st quarter romp that UL went on again, and that has allowed their offense to play the game they want to play with a balanced attack. If Louisiana can replicate their first performance on defense, they have a chance to stay ahead and ice the game once again. If not, App State may have too much firepower and too strong of a defense now, and they could be the ones to put it out of reach early.