Brady Hoke

[ed: bump.]

Seeing as we just had the annual heights and weights delivered to our doorstep with nary an emotion beyond “these large men either got slightly larger or slightly smaller, and that is good”, there really isn’t much else going on until the season starts.  Sure, there was the BBQ and a couple of commitments, but I’d be surprised if much else happened until a couple of days before The Horror II – Horror-ier comes into our lives at the end of August.  So yeah, figured I’d dust off this diary and expound a bit on the UM sports landscape, the upcoming football season, college sports in general, and a couple of other topics. 

 

Best:  Are You Ready for Some Football!

So it’s been over 8 months since UM last played a down of football (and, frankly, many more months since those downs felt meaningful).  I know a great deal has gone on both locally and nationally to put a dour tone on the upcoming season, but I’m just excited for the sport to return and for my fall weekends to have a bit more entertainment.  Living in NY but being a Lions fan, I’m forced to watch the Jets and Giants try to out-dryhump doorknobs for 3 hours most weeks, and can usually only catch games with teams I care about on postage stamp-sized feeds from random “sports” sites hosted in countries Russia hasn’t realized they might want to take back yet.  But basically every Saturday from August until November I know that I can turn on the television and find some channel with Michigan on it, and for a couple of hours I can be unabashedly zealous over something pretty inconsequential but still incredibly endearing to my heart.  That’s why I love the fall, and why I love having Michigan football back in my life.

[After the JUMP: lots more things that are either the best or the worst.]

If you're reading this site, you're a true Michigan fan. The type that yells "Go Blue" at anyone with two legs and block M on her shirt.

Your commitment goes beyond packing the Big House on Saturdays each fall. You still remember how the sun set over the Rose Bowl in 1998 as Michigan beat Washington State to capture a national title.

Michigan football has rewarded your commitment by winning a lot of football games. The program has the most wins and best winning percentage among all college football programs. This success has been consistent, well, except for a recent 3 year stretch.

Data visualization can capture this rich history of Michigan football. This visual looks at the past 30 years. Michigan

The bottom panel shows how a computer algorithm viewed Michigan football each year. The Power Rank algorithm takes a team's margin of victory in each game and adjusts it for their schedule. It makes a difference whether a team plays in the Big Ten or MAC. Last year, Michigan was rated higher (26th) than Northern Illinois (44th) despite having a worse record.

The rating for each team gives an expected margin of victory against an average FBS team. The difference in ratings of two teams gives a predicted margin of victory on a neutral field. For example, Michigan was predicted to beat Michigan State by 5.7 points (including 3 points for a home game at the Big House) last season. Michigan won 12-10. While the visual shows year end ratings, the calculations from before bowl season have predicted 62.8% of bowl game winners over the last 11 years.

These insights into Michigan football jump out from the visual.

23 Years of Sustained Excellence

In 1984, sophomore QB Jim Harbaugh got hurt in the fifth game of the season. Bo didn't have a suitable replacement. Michigan struggled to 6-6 record, finishing 36th in The Power Rank.

For the next 23 years, Michigan football never finished out of the top 25 of the rankings. The teams coached by Bo Schembechler, Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr showed remarkable consistency.

The Rich Rodriguez Years

This consistency came to an abrupt halt when Carr retired and Rich Rodriguez took over as coach. The dip in rating over these 3 years looks like the Grand Canyon compared with Michigan's results on both sides of this era. Rodriguez's teams won more games as the offense picked up his spread scheme. However, the poor defense kept team rating negative during those 3 years.

Michigan had a terrible time with turnovers under Rodriguez. Turnover margin in football is like flipping a coin. The randomness implies that a team with poor turnover margin should do better the following season. However, regression to the mean does not rescue every team. Rodriguez's teams had a consistently terrible turnover margin, with 10, 12, and 10 more giveaways than takeaways in his 3 years.

Boring wins football games

Lloyd Carr did not play the most exciting brand of football. Run, run, pass on offense. Very predictable and boring.

But Lloyd Carr won 122 football games in his 13 years as head coach. He claimed 5 Big Ten titles and a national championship in 1997.

How did he do it? Craig Ross, author of The Obscene Diaries of a Michigan Fan, told me that Carr attempted to "minimize the vagaries of talent and injuries". He probably had turnovers on his mind as well.

To a mathematician like myself, this quote means he understood randomness and tried to minimize its impact on his team. The calculated ratings from 1995 to 2007 show the consistent results from this philosophy. Similar to the San Antonio Spurs of the NBA, Carr put his team in position to win every year. He broke through with a national championship in 1997. Who cares that the algorithm thinks the Big Ten had a down year?

And for anyone who doubts boring wins football, just remember what happened when the exciting spread offense showed up after Carr retired.

The hidden strength of 2005 team

The remarkable 23 years in the top 25 of the rankings includes 2005. Most fans will not remember the 7-5 season fondly, but Michigan finished 10th in The Power Rank.

How can a team with 5 losses get ranked so highly? The Power Rank considers margin of victory and strength of schedule in ranking teams. A team gets credit for staying close with good teams. In 2005, Michigan lost by 4 points to 3rd ranked Ohio State, 7 points to 6th ranked Notre Dame, and 3 points to 19th ranked Wisconsin.

The 2005 team was much better than their record indicated. The Power Rank rated them two touchdowns better than the average FBS team. The core of Jake Long, Chad Henne and Mario Manningham along with a healthy Mike Hart would lead Michigan to an 11-0 start the following year.

Bo's best team was in 1988

Of the last 7 years of Bo Schembechler's coaching tenure, which team was the beat? The 1985 team that beat Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl? Or the 1986 team that finished with 11 wins?

Actually, the ranking algorithm gives a slight edge to the 1988 team. Michigan opened the season with a 2 point loss at Notre Dame. The following week, the Wolverines lost an agonizing 1 point game to Miami when the Hurricanes recovered an onside kick to set up a winning field goal. However, The Power Rank considers margin of victory and strength of schedule in rankings teams. Miami and Notre Dame would finish the season 1st and 2nd (Notre Dame won the national title with an undefeated season).

Michigan went on beat USC in the Rose Bowl and finish 4th in the rankings. The algorithm states they were a point and a half better than the 1985 team. However, the algorithm does not make any kind of definitive statement on the best team. To put this in perspective, the 1988 has a 53% chance of beating the 1985 team on a neutral field.

Get a free postcard of the Michigan visual

As Michigan enters the third year of the Brady Hoke era, the program appears to be climbing out of the Grand Canyon of the Rodriguez years. The Power Rank will continue to use analytics and visualization to break down the program in detail. For example, I apply the algorithm to yards per play to account for strength of schedule in ranking offense and defense.

The best way to keep up to date with this analysis is my free email newsletter. If you sign up, I'll send a postcard of the Michigan visual to you and the next biggest Michigan fan you know. To check it out, click here.

[Ed.: Bumped for awesome.]

For pathos purposes only.

Rodriguez: Trouble at Schembechler!

Assistant: Oh no - what kind of trouble?

Rodriguez: One on't zone reed gone owt askew on spreadshred.

Assistant: Pardon?

Rodriguez: One on't zone reed gone owt askew on spreadshred.

Assistant: I don't understand what you're saying.

Rodriguez: [slightly irritatedly and with exaggeratedly clear accent] One of the zone reads has gone out askew in the spread n’ shred.

Assistant: Well what on earth does that mean?

Rodriguez: I don't know – Mr. Magee just told me to come in here and say that there was trouble at Schembechler, that's all - I didn't expect a kind of Coaching Inquisition.

[JARRING CHORD]

[The door flies open and Cardinal David Brandon of Domino’s enters, flanked by two junior cardinals. Cardinal Rosenberg has goggles pushed over his forehead. Cardinal Fatcatalumnus is just Cardinal Fatcatalumnus]

Brandon: NOBODY expects the Coaching Inquisition! Our chief Replacement Candidate is Hoke...Hoke and Miles...Miles and Hoke.... Our two Replacement Candidates are Miles and Hoke...and Patterson.... Our three Replacement Candidates are Miles, Hoke, and Patterson...and an almost fanatical devotion to Harbaugh.... Our four...no... Amongst our Replacement Candidates.... Amongst our Replacement Candidatery...are such candidates as Miles, Hoke.... I'll come in again.

[The Cardinals exit]

Rodriguez: I didn't expect a kind of Coaching Inquisition.

[JARRING CHORD]

[The cardinals burst in]

Brandon: NOBODY expects the Coaching Inquisition! Amongst our Replacement Candidatery are such diverse candidates as: Miles, Hoke, Patterson, an almost fanatical devotion to Harbaugh, and nice red uniforms - Oh damn!

[To Cardinal Rosenberg] I can't say it - you'll have to say it.

Rosenberg: What?

Brandon: You'll have to say the bit about 'Our chief Replacement Candidates are ...'

Rosenberg: [rather horrified]: I couldn't do that...

[Brandon bundles the cardinals outside again]

Rodriguez: I didn't expect a kind of Coaching Inquisition.

[JARRING CHORD]

[The cardinals enter]

Rosenberg: Er.... Nobody...um....

Brandon: Expects...

Rosenberg: Expects... Nobody expects the...um...the Coaching...um...

Brandon: Coaching Inquisition...

Rosenberg: I know, I know! Nobody expects the Coaching Inquisition. In fact, those who do expect -

Brandon: Our chief Replacement Candidates are...

Rosenberg: Our chief Replacement Candidates are...um...er...

Brandon: Hoke...

Rosenberg: Hoke and --

Brandon: Okay, stop. Stop. Stop there - stop there. Stop. Phew! Ah! ... our chief Replacement Candidates are Hoke...blah blah blah. Cardinal, read the charges.

Fatcatalumnus: You are hereby charged that you did on diverse dates commit heresy against the House of Bo. 'My old Michigan Man said follow the--'

Rosenberg: That's enough.

[To Rodriguez] Now, how do you plead?

Rodriguez: I’m innocent.

Brandon: Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!

[DIABOLICAL LAUGHTER]

Rosenberg: We'll soon change your mind about that!

[DIABOLICAL ACTING]

Brandon: Miles, Hoke, and a most fanatical -- [controls himself with a supreme effort] Ooooh! Now, Cardinal -- the MAJOR VIOLATIONS!

[Rosenberg produces a ONE-PAGE LIST OF NCAA MAJOR VIOLATIONS. Brandon looks at it and clenches his teeth in an effort not to lose control. He hums heavily to cover his anger]

Brandon: You....Right! Tie him down.

[Fatcatalumnus and Rosenberg make a pathetic attempt to tie Rodriguez to the sheet of NCAA Major Violations]

Brandon: Right! How do you plead?

Rodriguez: Innocent.

Brandon: Ha! Right! Cardinal, make the public [oh dear] make the public believe the violations.

[Rosenberg stands there awkwardly and shrugs his shoulders]

Rosenberg: I....

Brandon: [gritting his teeth] I know, I know you can't. I didn't want to say anything. I just wanted to try and ignore your crass mistake.

Rosenberg: I...

Brandon: It makes it all seem so stupid.

Rosenberg: Shall I...?

Brandon: No, just pretend for God's sake. Ha! Ha! Ha!

[Rosenberg pretends to publish the violations in the Free Press using a plastic coated dish rack as a printing press]

[Cut to them torturing Rodriguez]

Brandon: Now, Rodriguez -- you are accused of heresy on three counts -- heresy by Game Captains, heresy by Hick Accent, heresy by Not Understanding the Rivalry, and heresy by the Number One Jersey -- four counts. Do you confess?

Rodriguez: I don't understand what I'm accused of.

Brandon: Ha! Then we'll make you understand! Rosenberg! Fetch...THE INFLATABLE MICHIGAN MAN SEX DOLL!

[JARRING CHORD]

[Rosenberg holds out an INFLATABLE MICHIGAN MAN SEX DOLL]

Rosenberg: Here it is, Lord.

Brandon: Now, Rodriguez -- you have one last chance. Confess the heinous sin of Tiny Slot Ninjas, reject the works of Casteel -- two last chances. And you shall be free -- three last chances. You have three last chances, the nature of which I have divulged in my previous utterance.

Rodriguez: I don't know what you're talking about.

Brandon: Right! If that's the way you want it -- Cardinal! Poke him with the Inflatable Michigan Man Sex Doll!

[Rosenberg carries out this rather pathetic torture]

Brandon: Confess! Confess! Confess!

Rosenberg: It doesn't seem to be hurting him, Lord.

Brandon: Have you got all the air in the schlong?

Rosenberg: Yes, Lord.

Brandon [angrily hurling away the Inflatable Michigan Man Sex Doll]: Hmm! He is made of harder stuff! Cardinal Fatcatalumnus! Fetch...THE $2.5 MILLION BUYOUT!

[JARRING CHORD]

[Zoom into Fatcatalumnus's horrified face]

Fatcatalumnus [terrified]: The...$2.5 million buyout?

[Rosenberg pushes in a GIANT PILE OF MONEY]

Brandon: So you think you are strong because you can survive the Inflatable Michigan Man Sex Doll. Well, we shall see. Rosenberg! Put him in the Giant Pile of Money!

[They roughly push him into the Giant Pile of Money]

Brandon [with a cruel leer]: Now -- you will stay in the Giant Pile of Money until another coaching job opens up, with only a year-long break on ESPN as an analyst. [Aside, to Rosenberg] Is that really all it is?

Rosenberg: Yes, Lord.

Brandon: I see. I suppose we make it worse by shouting a lot, do we? Confess, man. Confess! Confess! Confess! Confess!

Rosenberg: I confess!

Brandon: Not you!

exeunt