My earlier thread discussing the accountability of RR and his staff received mixed reviews. Given the interpretation that I was negative about the prospects for the 2010 season, this post will seem bipolar. It is not bipolar, as my last post was a positive statement about accountability and even stated that I expected 8 wins this year. I was too timid.

I believe Michigan will win 9 games, and, no, I have not begun drinking yet today. I actually would offer the following prediction range:

7 wins – 9%
8 wins – 15%
9 wins – 60%
10 wins – 15%
11+ wins – 1%

And I have not taken any drugs today. In truth, I have surpassed the Mathlete with exhausative calculations…

…but while I give you a glimpse of my Beautiful Mind, I will not (i.e., cannot) explain the science behind it all. I can, however, translate these definitive probabilities into human terms.

I coach sports at a very high level: 6 to 12 year olds. One thing I have learned from a decade of that and my overall sports experience is that success, in the short term, is less about Talent and more about Will. Now, this is no great revelation, and I am equally certain that the REPLY button is smoking as the “Talent matters” crowd jumps into action. And indeed, over the long haul, Talent matters. Thus, in 2009, Michigan Willed itself to a 5-2 start with two close losses (yes, and close wins, too), but then, in the middle rounds of the fight, fatigue, reality and lack of Talent overcame them.

So while Will trumps Talent in the short term, Talent trumps Will in the long term. And usually, the Talent with a Will wins it all.

Is this post going anywhere?

Let me use eye-pleasing bullets to speed things along.

• Teams do not respect Michigan anymore. Teams will expect to beat Michigan. That is when danger strikes, when Appy State and Toledo and Boise all rise up and teach painful lessons. Michigan, now better, will be taking on the teaching role early this season after being the student much the last two years.
• Will (motivation, team, underdog role, us-against-the-world) is going to propel Michigan over top of UConn and to a 5-1 start (sorry, I think ND’s offensive maturity, even in a new system, is going to allow them to win a shootout). It could be 6-0, however, but because I am a noted naysayer, I put forth 5-1 (wins against UConn, UMass, BG, Indiana, MSU).
• At this point of the season, Michigan’s Talent will be in a different place than 2009. At mid-season 2009, the following players were not potential contributors, where in 2010 they will be:

Name Pos. Yr. Exp. Ht./Wt. Hometown (last school)

3 Jeremy Gallon WR Fr. RS 5-8/171 Apopka, FL (Apopka)
4 Cameron Gordon S Fr. RS 6-3/208 Detroit, MI (Inkster)
5 Vladimir Emillen S So.  6-1/202 Lauderhill, FL (Plantation)
6 Je'Ron Stokes WR So.  6-0/187 Philadelphia, PA (Northeast)
7 Devin Gardner QB Fr.  6-4/203 Oak Park, MI (Inkster)
7 Brandin Hawthorne S So.  6-0/202 Pahokee, FL (Pahokee) 
8 Terrance Robinson WR So. RS 5-9/173 Klein, TX (Oak)
12 J.T. Floyd CB So. RS 6-0/183 Greenville, SC (J.L. Mann) 
14 Teric Jones S So.  5-9/194 Detroit, MI (Cass Tech)
15 Thomas Gordon S Fr. RS 5-11/208 Detroit, MI (Cass Tech)
15 Michael Cox RB So. RS 6-0/215 Dorchester, MA (Avon Old Farms)
17 Jeremy Jackson WR Fr.  6-3/196 Ann Arbor, MI (Huron)
26 Isaiah Bell LB Fr. RS 6-1/237 Youngstown, OH (Liberty) 
27 Mike Jones LB So.  6-2/207 Orlando, FL (Edgewater)
28 Fitzgerald Toussaint RB Fr. RS 5-10/199 Youngstown, OH (Liberty)
33 Stephen Hopkins RB Fr.  6-0/236 Double Oak, TX (Marcus)
34 Brendan Gibbons K Fr. RS 6-0/245 West Palm Beach, FL (Cardinal Newman)
44 Mark Moundros FB Sr. RS 6-1/234 Farmington Hills, MI (North)
45 Obi Ezeh LB Sr. RS 6-2/240 Grand Rapids, MI (Catholic Central)
50 David Molk OL Jr. RS 6-2/270 Lemont, IL (Lemont Township)
56 Ricky Barnum OL So. RS 6-3/284 Lakeland, FL (Lake Gibson)
57 Elliott Mealer OL So. RS 6-5/310 Wauseon, OH (Wauseon)
64 Christian Pace OL Fr.  6-2/259 Avon Lake, OH (Avon Lake)
65 Patrick Omameh OL So. RS 6-4/293 Columbus, OH (St. Francis DeSales)
73 William Campbell DT So.  6-5/324 Detroit, MI (Cass Tech)
75 Michael Schofield OL Fr. RS 6-7/281 Orland Park, IL (Carl Sandburg)
76 Quinton Washington OL Fr. RS 6-4/307 St. Stephen, SC (Timberland)
77 Taylor Lewan OL Fr. RS 6-8/283 Scottsdale, AZ (Chaparral)
82 Ricardo Miller WR Fr.  6-4/212 Ann Arbor, MI (Pioneer)
83 Jerald Robinson WR Fr.  6-1/191 Canton, OH (South)
90 Anthony LaLota DE Fr. RS 6-4/263 Princeton, NJ (The Hun School)

• This isn’t a precise list, but a general point illustrated by our current offensive line depth. Last year, the depth was thin and Molk’s injury exposed a lethal liability. This year, the OLine is deep, deep, deep. Those extra new contributors mean the world in avoiding positional meltdowns.
• Now the long-haul has settled in. Michigan will then take three of the next four games with better talent than all but Iowa. At this point, we are 8-2 (wins against PSU, ILL and Purdue).
• Then: Wisconsin and Evil. Hidden in the Mathlete’s world is something about probablilities, and it becomes harder and harder for Evil to keeping winning. I see a split of these games, hopefully winning the last OSU-Michigan November regular season matchup.

Book it, Meeechigan Dano says. 9-3.

Let the mocking begin!

(Note: If the secondary is hit by injuries, I revise to 2-10.)