My Own Post-Mortem on The State of the Program.

Submitted by skatin@the_palace on November 17th, 2020 at 3:27 PM

It is beyond difficult to accept how bad Michigan football is. Even in a down year, I did not set unreasonable expectations. I expected dogfights with Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana. I expected an uncomfortable, "smells-like-I-just-stepped-in-dogshit" game against MSU. As we've all witnessed this past month, the rubber bands and paperclips holding up the University of Michigan football program have broken or snapped. We're on an outrigger in the ocean during a storm now. Tough grapple with. I'd been thinking about making some comments on some other threads, but they seemed too large to fit into so here I am, my first diary post on MGOBLOG. 

There are clearly many things that have gone wrong during the Harbaugh regime in AA that we've all highlighted and debated ad nauseam. One that we have not made time for (at least that I haven't noticed) is about the snap counts. You may think, this is a small or insignificant point that is more about keeping our guys fresh than not or about our recruiting, you would be wrong. 

The ignorance or inability to rotate bodies into games has been the death knell of this program! What I mean is this: 

In football there are 3 things you need to be good at (from a high level) to give yourself any shot at competing (Per Bill C)

  1. Acquire Talent
  2. Develop Talent
  3. Deploy Talent

This boils down to recruiting, turning high schoolers into grown men, and putting them in a position to succeed. If you are not able to or unwilling to give you backups and underclassmen snaps, you will not be successful at the 3 aforementioned goals. 

If you need to have good players to have a good program, how can you get them to come to Michigan over Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, Oregon, Penn State, Georgia, or Florida, if they won't have an opportunity to see the field until a position battle during their 3rd year on campus?

If you need to develop that talent, how are you able to get them the most valuable experience a football player can receive, in game snaps, if you are keeping your first team offense and defense on the field deep into the 4th quarter against everyone but Rutgers?

How will you deploy all of the talent you have acquired in steps 1 and 2 if they leave because they can go to another program that will play them right now and who needs what they do? 

All of this goes down to being able to work in younger players and keeping them engaged in the program. Take a look at how Wisconsin develops players? They take overlooked guys who fit the system they have spent the better part of 30 years crafting and refining. They set expectations and they make due on their commitments to these young men to get them prepared to be a successful part of a winning program. 

Clemson, the newest institutional Death Star on the block, achieves the same goal via a different approach. If you beat the dog shit out of everyone who's not near your respective Death Star level, your young guys can get to play against other Power 5 opponents! I mean for goodness sake, Dabo, Venebales, and Herbstreit all have kids running around playing for Clemson in blowouts. They have punters taking snaps at QB. 

The failure of getting backups, underclassmen, etc. on the field lead to a negative feedback loop of decreased returns in recruiting, retention, and ultimately the on field product.

If we drill down into this year specifically, how useful would Myles Sims and Benjamin St. Juste be in breaking Gemon Green or Andre Seldon in. We can go through a few examples of the guys who could have been contributors on this team one way or another and did not have obvious off the field issues. 

  • Tarik Black - Ronnie Bell has performed great but Tarik Black with expanded targets could have been another great option offense for Milton. He finally got healthy and could not get targets in the offense don't blame him for departing the program. 
  • Steve Spanellis - We have a true freshman starting at right guard right now. Cannot replace the experience and football IQ he would have been able to add to an offensive line with a returning started. 
  • Benjamin St. Juste - All conference honorable mention, started on an 11-2 Minnesota team. He is objectively better than Gray and Green (right now).

Over the 6 years we've had Jim Harbaugh, the retention rate for each recruiting class has steadily declined. The high caliber recruiting classes have not been able to yield results comparable to other similarly positioned programs. I firmly believe, that is due to a lack of playing who you have. 

If you factor in all of the rumors that have circulated about how difficult it is to play for or work with Coach Harbaugh and you then consider the inability to get on the field, it makes sense why guys have left the program (sometimes without a clear landing spot!!!). 

Regardless of who is leading the program next year and beyond, they need to commit to playing as many guys as possible as early in their careers as possible. The schemes will be the schemes, recruiting will be recruiting, but if you can get the talent you've assembled live snaps against live competition, you will only strengthen the quality of depth and keep your current team engaged. 

Here's to hoping whoever is on the sidelines next year understands this. 

Comments

Montana41GoBlue

November 17th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^

I recall one of the negatives attached to JH when he took the helm was "he wears out his welcome - he grates on people"... well, we are seeing just that right here.  If he was winning at a high level it probably wouldn't matter/ could be overlooked.  Time to turn the page!

GoingBlue

November 17th, 2020 at 6:22 PM ^

Players transferring away or just flat out leaving the team to do nothing but go to school, is the down fall of this season. So many guys left the program after they were already in it and clearly needed. That is an institutional problem

Nemesis

November 17th, 2020 at 7:43 PM ^

There is an irony here.

 

During his tenure, Harbaugh has rotated lots of guys into the offense.  So much so that a guy with the hot hand (e.g., Haskins running the ball) will only get a few carries in a game.  His 6 carries might average 10 yards a pop and leave everyone (Haskins included) wondering why he didn't get more snaps.

 

At the same time, I remember a few games over the Harbaugh tenure where we were up comfortably in the 4th quarter and still had our starters in.  I would look at Devin Bush limping back to the huddle and wonder WTH he was still doing in the game.  The young guys siting on the bench were probably furious.

 

The effect is that you piss off both your good players and your young guys on the bench.

 

 

Ghost of Fritz…

November 18th, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^

Nemesis...   Yes, Michigan has a history of rotating players a lot during the JH period, at least in position groups that make sense (D-line when there was depth, RBs, TEs, WRs...).

OP was focusing on a different thing--failure to give the 2nd and 3rd string enough playing time in blow out wins. 

While I agree with OP that Michigan should give 2nd and 3rd string guys more PT in blow outs, I have a hard time seeing this issue as a major contributor to the terrible result this year, or the general under-performance in prior years. 

Other dysfunctions/mistakes are the main drivers of what we are seeing this year and in prior years.
 

 

 

skatin@the_palace

November 18th, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^

My analysis does fail to mention how god awful game plans have been (on both sides of the ball). I would like to add that when you combine awful game planning with diminishing returns of the current regime's ability to acquire, develop, deploy results in a negative feedback loop where you're not able to gain a strategic edge because you're constantly playing guys who were previously on the scout team. 

The physical ability is there for a large swath of the current roster but the wholistic/program failure of an inability to keep players in engaged or happy where they are, those other issues become larger and more apparent. At it's core, this issue I've highlighted, along with the god awful gamelans, overall philosophy, and inability to self scout makes everything worse. A truly cruel negative feedback loop for us, the fans. 

Nemesis

November 18th, 2020 at 4:05 PM ^

Yeah.  I mention the 2nd and 3rd string right here.

 

"At the same time, I remember a few games over the Harbaugh tenure where we were up comfortably in the 4th quarter and still had our starters in.  I would look at Devin Bush limping back to the huddle and wonder WTH he was still doing in the game.  The young guys siting on the bench were probably furious."

hfhmilkman

November 18th, 2020 at 9:49 AM ^

mgoblog did an article talking about the status of every active transfer.  The vast majority of the transfers failed to live to expectations even at their new location.  That tells me that the failure is on item one, acquiring talent.  

Ghost of Fritz…

November 18th, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^

Three things...

1.  While it would be smart to give more PT to 2nd and 3rd string guys in blowouts, this is not a main reason for the poor retention of players (or the poor results in general).

2.  Michigan has some talent acquisition problems.  But the problem is mostly one of imbalance, not overall quality.  Why so few options at CB and DT, while having too many RBs?

3.  The roster is still good enough to perform way above what we have see over the last three weeks.   So...player development/teaching as well as schemes/game plans/play calling have to be big factors in the terrible results.

 

Nemesis

November 18th, 2020 at 3:54 PM ^

Harbaugh takes on projects.

 

Joe Milton was an under 50% completion rate passer in HS with a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio.  Lots of passing yards, but not many rushing yards.  Good, but not even close to amazing numbers.  But with his stature and cannon for an arm......JH took him on as a project.

 

Julius Welschlos came from Germany as a physical freak and champion skier.  Zero football background.

 

Other guys might be good players, but have terrible attitudes (Solomon).

 

In all of these cases, these are project players.

 

I would rather take guys with good stats on the actual football fields who have no evidence of character flaws.

 

JH's hubris is biting him in the butt.  Taking the occasional project is fine, but we seem to have a lot of them.

Double-D

November 18th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^

I would be willing to bet that teams that recruit at a level of Michigan or better have a similar miss rate on 4 star players although it seems like our interior DL miss rate is high and our CB miss rate seems currently high.

The majority of the players that leave don’t end up having exceptional careers elsewhere.