Lies, Damn Lies, and NFL Insiders in the lead up to NFL Draft
Ladies and Gentlemen welcome to Draft Day, the silliest of all days on the NFL calendar. Don't believe anything you hear until the pick is made. The NFL has done an excellent job of taking an event that was hosted in a hotel ballroom and turning it into their version of a reality TV show. Everything you see is carefully choreographed; from the built-in drama: Who's going to be the first pick? To which guy is going to fall in the green room?
Having worked in this industry for a while, I always tell people to look at the context of insider information. Where is it slanted; is it positive or negative; what does someone gain from this information being public knowledge? The classic example is when the Bears were trying to trade the 1st pick, you had a GM systemically leaking info about trade proposals to try and drive up the price. Then he went on record with Peter King to do his final stand before he traded the pick (which was for less than the offers on the table sources claimed) Shocked! This is the time of year when every piece of information is being put out into the ether to advance a team's position or disadvantage a player to cause them to fall. It's icky and sad, but that's the reality of the NFL. So when you hear info about Stroud's S2 score, or Will Levis being "told" he's the #1 pick, do your best to filter that information.
Now let's get to the Draft itself-- I caveat this with, I am not a scout, but this is what I'm hearing from people who would know about these kind of things.
Michigan and the NFL Draft
Michigan has done a really good job of ID'ing a lot of guys early. So many of the guys in this class are prospects that they went after: Bijan, DTR, and Eric Gray, among others. Someone told me they loved Anthony Richardson and went after him, but don't remember seeing that during the time, so maybe it was a bit more under the radar? I think we have to put a lot of stock in how Michigan evaluates potential fits and their process under the direction of former GM, Tom Gamble, has been excellent.
As it relates to Michigan, the one thing I hear is that Michigan is one of the best schools for getting guys ready for the NFL-- they prepare guys with NFL schemes, teach guys the right way, have filled the roster with guys who handle their business, and it's no surprise they all test really well. Michigan IDs its guys better than almost any other program.
You juxtapose that to Bama or Georgia who load up on guys who fit their model. For example, Georgia uses the Saban model where they don't take guys unless they fit their template. If their arms are too short on the DL, they will rarely take that guy. Michigan can't and won't take some of the guys that UGA does, as Georgia can take a bit more risk on the character profile. I'd argue that it can show up on the field, but Michigan's approach fits them the best to create a high-floor team with character guys, sprinkled in with some elite talent. But in general, all three teams are focused on building through the lines, unlike some teams that think you can win with 4 five-star WRs on the field.
Michigan Drafted Players: Wouldn't shock me if we have 2 1st rounders this year in Mazi and DJ. I think it all just depends on if teams in the 20s trade back. I expect at least 6 drafted and looks like Luke may sneak into the 2nd round.
Oh, and I'll leave this here. Kris Jenkins is going to be the next great Michigan DL. If he stays healthy, we're talking about a 1st round, All-American-type season. Scouts are in love with his game and his film this year was good enough to go top 40.
Other NFL Draft Musings
QB: From what I've heard and seen with this draft class, this will be another year where the best QB out of this class will not be the first guy drafted. If I'm a GM given given where we are in the game today, I go all-in on Anthony Richardson. The key to him is giving him time to learn and then molding the system to fit him. It was hilarious that Dan Mullen tried to force him to become Kyle Trask-like. In the right system (Detroit!) he could be a top 5 QB. A guy I've heard a lot of teams like is Dorian Thompson Robinson out of UCLA. He's a big team leader and has a bit of juice in his game.
RB: This is too volatile of a position to draft a guy early. As good as Bijan is (and he's really freaking good) I'd put money on a guy from the 2nd/3rd round having a better career, just because that's what history and analytics have shown us. Our old friend Zach Charbonnet is a stud. To me, he's Nick Chubb 2.0. Jahmyr Gibbs and Tank Bigsby are two other guys who I think will be really good NFL starters. Probably 5-7 guys out of this group that could develop into really good players.
TE: Don't ever take a TE early. Analytics show that this is a position that you're better off waiting to select in the 2nd/3rd Round. For that reason, I would stay away from Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid and draft Luke Schoonmaker or Tucker Kraft. The class is deep with 8 guys who I'd feel good if my team drafted.
D-Line: I'll tell you a guy that I cannot figure out who he's not getting more draft love or buzz. Nolan Smith. If I have a pick in the top 5, he's the one guy I am taking. Elite speed and bend, plays incredibly hard and was THE leader and Alpha on that Georgia Defense. He sets the edge, and he plays the run. I love what he stands for and how he plays the game. He may not be a superstar, but I guarantee (health willing) that he is going to be a really good NFL player for a long time.
Plant your Flag Guys: These are guys who will be drafted outside of the first round and some later in the draft that I think are going to be good players in the NFL.
Evan Hull: Elite out of the backfield. Guys that can catch and move always find a way to make an impact on the field.
Parker Washington: Elite character and alpha. Look at his tape against OSU. Slot guy that I think will be a really good pick in the 3/4th round.
Charlie Jones: Gym rat, High IQ, deceptively athletic. Comp to Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Hunter Renfrow. But seriously, on the right team, I think we look back and go how did this guy go in the 5th round.
Derrick Hall: Give me the guy with an elite background and elite testing all day long. Go look up his story-- this feels like a guy the Lions take in the 2nd round.
Riley Moss: He was the best player on Iowa's defense. I don't care if he's a safety or a cornerback, I have heard how integral he was to Iowa. Probably fits in best with a zone-heavy team. Watch him go to the Pats and us ask how did Bill do it again.
Tucker Kraft: I love TE's who block and are tough. Give me the guy who when Alabama comes calling with a massive NIL deal, says no thanks I'm all SDSU Jackrabitt!
Jayden Reed: Media is catching on to this guy, but I think he's going to be a really solid #2 WR in the NFL and teams think so too. He put that MSU team on his back at times and bailed out some pretty poor QB play.
Red Flag Guys: Just guys that I think may fall / think the media is higher on. The reality is that it only takes 1 team to draft a guy, so to definitely say this guy is a bust or will drop is a silly proclamation to make.
Jalen Carter: Obvious, but in general don't love it when there's a desire + character issue for a big guy. It's hard to motivate those guys. Can see him as a guy that looks all-world one week and then disappears the next week. History shows that these kinds of athletes aren't worth the draft position (Dion Jordan, Bruce Irvin, Nick Fairley, etc)
Any Clemson DL (mostly Myles Murphy): The track record isn't good with Clemson DL (aka the media hype isn't commensurate with their level of talent). Not a huge fan of either him or Bresee on film.
Joey Porter Jr: Biggest red flag is a guy who's tight and lacks lateral movement that is a grabber. He won't be able to do that in the NFL. And that makes him better as a #2 CB, which means I wouldn't draft him over other better CBs on the board.
Jack Campbell: Athleticism doesn't show up on film... see Blake Corum putting him in a blender this year. He'll be a solid player but don't get the love in the 1st/2nd for him.
Tyjae Spears: Don't draft RBs with knee/injury histories. Love the player, hate the injuries.
I'll be around here to answer any questions, Draft of Michigan related today! Good luck to all of your teams drafting.
April 27th, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
Super nice write up OP and thanks - I appreciate your insight & opinion.
As a current Browns season ticket holder I'm sad that our annual Super Bowl wont be the same this year as we wont be picking until the middle of round three. I'm hoping Berry packages up some of the 8 picks we have in rounds 3-6 and moves up to round 2 to grab a difference-maker on defense.
As a child of a Lions season ticket holder who grew up in Pontiac and went to a LOT of games from 68-83 I still have a very soft spot in my heart for the team in Honolulu blue. And unlike you OP I'm hoping they take a big swing at #6 and pick Bijan. He would instantly be the best RB Detroit has had since Barry and would fit an amazing fit in Campbell's offense. I know RBs are devalued these days but behind Detroit's offensive line and in your current scheme I think he would be fantastic and would remind people a lot of Mccafferty. His pass catching skills are very underrated IMO and he would be a stud in the backfield.
I LOVE Bijan, I just look at the analytics that tell you don't take RBs early. He very well could be the best back to come out in a decade, it's just tough for him to sustain that over more than 5 years. Zeke, Gurley, Fournette are all guys who went early in the 1st that won't play past 28 years old.
Two things to consider:
1. Unless you're a QB playing longer than five years in the league at a high level is a rarity, not the norm. You take a team like the Lions who are in their window of winning, IMO, and add a difference maker on offense, well I think that changes the dynamic immediately. Too many teams are worrying about what their record will be seven years from now and not this season. Push your chips in Lions, go for it!
2. The Browns have Nick Chubb and they've employed load-management with him to keep his legs & body fresh longer. He seldom gets more than 20 carries a game but they definitely make those carries count. He's entering his 6th year and shows no signs of slowing down at all.
Saquon Barkley is a cautionary tale here. The difference is that there were virtually no players higher on most boards than Barkley, while there are likely to be multiple DL/QBs who are rated higher than Robinson available at #6.
In general, I believe the Lions can get 95%+ of Bijan Robinson with a later pick, plus taking an impact DL at #6, so I would not take him at #6. (Heck in this draft, it's not impossible that someone would flip 1st round picks with the Lions and they could get Robinson lower anyway.)
April 27th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
Oh, and I'll leave this here. Kris Jenkins is going to be the next great Michigan DL. If he stays healthy, we're talking about a 1st round, All-American-type season. Scouts are in love with his game and his film this year was good enough to go top 40.
Probably kind of premature, but I'd be curious if you have thoughts/insight on the draft prospects of any of the other big players we have coming back next year. Guys like JJ, Corum, Edwards, etc. Do you see any of them as first round prospects? Things like that.
RBs are very much devalued, so it's hard to say. But I don't think DE is a Bijan type player, not yet at least. I would say both RBs are probably Round 2/3 guys next year. I'm dying to see DE be used more consistently out of the backfield. Let the man cook out there, I think that will help him out a ton for draft stock as well. Corum when healthy is a true pro. He'll play in the league for a long time.
Listen if JJ has the year we think he can have I think there's no doubt that he will leave. But with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye there could be some conversations about draft positioning. Does it make sense to come back and be the #1 QB or do you care and just want to play in the NFL?
QBs are tough because sometimes the more tape you have out there the more people can pick apart your game. My biggest thing with JJ right now is that he's almost caught in between-- he wants to play school yard ball a bit, but you can tell that's being coached a little bit out of him. He's got to be better about picking his spots; knowing when he can tuck and run and when it's time to just flush the ball. There's some throws on tape where NFL people are worried that you may not be able to coach out of him and that can be worrisome. They didn't result in INTs in college but in the pros they will be.
Zinter is on the precipice of being the top guard. He's super close to putting it all together, and it made sense for him to come back.
Junior Colson is my vote for a guy that blows up this year. He's a modern day LB. Movement skills are excellent, but coverage is an area he needs to clean up. Him and Josiah Stewart are two guys I'd watch out for next year coming out.
"Kris Jenkins is going to be the next great Michigan DL."
Whoa. Next, you're going to tell me that this year's Ann Arbor art fair weather will likely involve high heat and humidity. Maybe a thunderstorm, too.
Fun post, though. Could you share more about your occupation without compromising your identity?
Charlie Jones: Gym rat, High IQ, deceptively athletic. Comp to Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Hunter Renfrow.
You forgot "brings his lunchbox to work".
This was a great read and it's awesome to hear how well UM is preparing players for the NFL. Thanks for writing!
Probably could be a whole diary post. But a lot of props goes to Ben Herbert. The guys are all prepared for the combine. They test all the time, so in general it helps when teams can see guys times over a long period of time.
Michigan is also super honest when it comes to scouts and GMs. I know there are a few former players who thought that maybe they were too honest and had some gripes with Harbaugh. But teams feel much better when they get the full story, hence why Michigan gets a good rep. Unless it's Trent Baalke lol.
So you mix in the types of guys Michigan recruits, the fact that they usually test very well, they are taught a pro system, and are high character guys it lends teams to value the program and it's approach to player development.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:57 AM ^
And what do the lions do? Draft Jahmyr Gibbs….12th…in the first round. Sigh:(. Oh and Jack Campbell. No value from either pick, could have gotten both lower. Maybe there is a huge drop off on the their board after Witherspoon? Made the trade knowing their guy would still be there? It’s confusing….
April 28th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
You guys just witnessed the impact of having John Dorsey with influence in your front office. Both Lions picks would've been there in the 2nd round and they literally could've had the Eagles draft (two stud DL's graded by everyone A+) instead of what they took (a tweener RB and a MLB graded by everyone as the worst draft in the league) without doing anything but staying put.
Listen, who am I to flame a team and their picks, when I'm not in the room during their due diligence, but it does scream, we think we are smarter than other teams. Don't love taking a RB and off-ball LB, because analytics scream NO! But hey maybe they are just enamored with the character of Campbell. Gibbs is a baller, but don't love the value of it.
That would be my fear if you were a Lions fan... Campbell and Holmes tend to overvalue guys who are like Dan Campbell. It's a bit much, and they had success last year and you can tell maybe they start to believe that they know more than other teams. Jury is still out on a few guys, but their 2nd round picks have been very poor. Don't love how they think that if you put a team out there on Defense of Dan Campbell/Aaron Glenn guys that you are going to be successful. They were booty on defense last year and seem to be doubling down on that system.
Someone on Twitter had a comment that all you have to do if you want to be drafted early by the Lions is to cry in your interview about how much you love football and how you would die for it.
The Eagles and Ravens are some of the best drafting teams, because they are consistent in their approach and they always let the draft come to them. They are patient and it's no surprise they are both almost always in the playoffs.
I think the "cry and they'll love you" bit is partially true, however, Holmes/Campbell took a different approach to FA this offseason. If that was *it* then Jamaal Williams would still be a Lion. It makes sense for them to get rid of Swift for exactly those reasons, on the other hand.
The good thing is that both Gibbs and Campbell improve this current Lions team right now. That's something that hasn't been the case or even a possibility for Detroit in YEARS.
The entire draft haul looks pretty good, in fact.
The jokes about the Lions going too early on Gibbs/Campbell are understandable... but with Branch and Hooker, they ended up pretty even in taking lower value early and getting greater value late.
According to the draft "experts" Lions had a horrible overall draft and missed a golden opportunity to significantly upgrade their roster. Take a look
I understand character and scheme as things they could potentially differentiate or favor Michigan players over players for some other schools, but I'm not clear on what "teach guys the right way" might be.
Can OP or anyone else elaborate? Does this refer to technique? And/or something else? If there's an example of how Michigan teaches something vs. another (named or unnamed) school, that would be very illuminating.
Good question. For example, Georgia teaches their DL to be more block destroyers vs. penetrators. It's usually why you see their players have lower sack totals. But the NFL usually loves that they are taught that because you can teach some of the pass rush moves, but if you can kick ass and get off blocks that puts you at a whole big advantage over other players.
Michigan edges are known for their bend. Uche, Paye, Hutch, Ojabo, etc all were drafted early because they are long, tough, and have excellent technique. Teams love that profile.
Also, for our DB's, they are taught NFL schemes in the secondary, so you tend to get players who can fit into NFL systems easier. Lastly, Michigan values ST so it adds a ton of value for guys who are later draft picks. Khaleke, Jordan Glasgow, etc got drafted because of how good they are on ST.
LOL on Jack Campbell (and the Lions drafting him.)
LOL on
RB: This is too volatile of a position to draft a guy early.
(Once again I'm scratching my head at the Lions' draft. )
Yeah that pick screamed go get Dan Campbell's draft crush. He has to be a Pro Bowl LB or it's a complete and utter whiff of a pick
April 30th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
Now that it's all done, I'm wondering what you think of the Lions draft? Also, are there any teams that you think knocked it out of the park? Any that chose poorly?
Reading this post draft. Nice write up! Hope to catch it earlier next year.
Thank you.
When I saw that the Lions drafted Jack Campbell, I immediately thought of Blake Corum running around him like a pylon. We played them in the Big Ten Championship Game and again the following season, and I don't remember Campbell doing anything of note, I think Holmes has begun to believe that he can do no wrong.
Comments