Know Your 2010 Big Ten Passing Attacks
In thinking about Michigan's young secondary this year, and considering a lot of uncertainty and anxiety expressed around here about that unit, I've compiled the passing/receiving units they'll be facing on the other side of the ball in the B10. Here's what Michigan's D will be looking at, essentially. What are your thoughts? What are the toughest tests?
Note: I've listed QB and number of years starting, top returning pass catchers, plus Phil Steele's preseason B10 receiver unit rankings. I haven't included incoming guys, but here and there I've thrown in some guys who didn't contribute much last year (like Keith Nichol and Eddie McGee, for example). Obviously other factors will play into the effectiveness of these units (Do they have decent run game to keep D honest? Is the line experienced and talented? etc.).
By request, here's Michigan's for reference:
| Michigan | |||
| QB | Returning Targets (Receiving unit ranked #6 by Phil Steele) | ||
| Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson | Roy Roundtree WR | Martavious Odoms WR | Junior Hemingway WR |
| 2nd Year Starter (TF) 2009 STATS 58.7% 2050 Yards 13 TDs 10 INTs | 2009 STATS 32 Catches 434 Yards 3 TDs 13.6 YPC
| 2009 STATS 22 Catches 272 Yards 1 TDs 12.4 YPC | 2009 STATS 16 Catches 268Yards 2 TDs 16.8 YPC
|
| Robinson | Kevin Koger TE | Darryl Stonum WR |
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| 2009 STATS 45.2% 188 Yards 2 TDs 4 INTs | 2009 STATS 16 Catches 220 Yards 2 TDs 13.8 YPC | 2009 STATS 13 Catches 199 Yards 1 TDs 15.3 YPC |
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The opponents
In no particular order:
| MSU | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Kirk Cousins | BJ Cunningham WR | Mark Dell WR | Keshawn Martin WR |
| 2nd Year Starter 2009 STATS 60.4% 2680 Yards 19 TDs 9 INTs | 2009 STATS 48 Catches 641 Yards 4 TDs 13.4 YPC | 2009 STATS 26 Catches 449 Yards 1 TDs 17 YPC | 2009 STATS 18 Catches 411 Yards 5 TDs 22.8 YPC |
| Charlie Gantt TE | Brian Linthicum TE | Keith Nichol WR | |
| 2009 STATS 22 Catches 348 Yards 2 TDs 15.8 YPC | 2009 STATS 20 Catches 266 Yards 2 TDs 13.3 YPC | 2009 STATS 2 receptions (everyone seems to think he's going to be great … meh … who knows) | |
A lot of proven options. Steele ranks the receivers as the #4 unit in the conference.
| Iowa | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Ricky Stanzi | D. Johnson-Koulianos WR | Marvin McNutt WR | Allen Reisner TE |
| 3rd Year Starter 2009 STATS 56.3% 2417 Yards 17 TDS 15 INTs | 2009 STATS 45 Catches 750 Yards 2 TDs 16.8 YPC | 2009 STATS 34 Catches 674 Yards 8 TDs 18.8 YPC | 2009 STATS 14 Catches 143 Yards 1 TDs 10.2 YPC |
Two potential All B10 guys in DJK and McNutt, and potential all B10 QB. Steele ranks this unit #5.
| Wisconsin | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Scott Tolzien | Nick Toon WR | Isaac Anderson WR | Lance Kendricks TE |
| 2nd Year Starter 2009 STATS 64.3% 2705 Yards 16TDs 11INTs | 2009 STATS 54 Catches 805 Yards 4 TDs 14.9 YPC | 2009 STATS 30 Catches 480 Yards 2 TDs 16 YPC | 2009 STATS 29 Catches 356 Yards 3 TDs 12.3 YPC |
David Gilreath also returns from a year when production went down after surgery in '08 off season. Steele ranks this unit #1 in the conference.
| Indiana | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Ben Chappell | Tandon Doss WR | Damarlo Belcher WR | Terrence Turner WR |
| 3rd Year Starter 2009 STATS 62.6% 2941Yards 17 TDs 15 INTs | 2009 STATS 76 Catches 962 Yards 5 TDs 12.5 YPC | 2009 STATS 61 Catches 770 Yards 5 TDs 12.6 YPC | 2009 STATS 46 Catches 443 Yards 1 TDs 9.6 YPC |
| Max Dedmond TE | |||
| 2009 STATS 18 Catches 141 Yards 1 TDs 7.8 YPC | |||
Lots of returning yards, catches and a 3rd year starter at QB. Doss is returning 1st All B10. Bonus Hoosier Fact: Mitchell Evans ran the ball 33 times in 2009. Caught 33 balls and threw 7 passes. Now he moves to Strong Safety for 2010. Too bad he won't have a 5th year of eligibility as place kicking job would have been his in 2011, no doubt.
Phil Steele ranks this receiving Unit #6 in the Conference (tied with Michigan), which is puzzling to me given the production of the returning guys. The only real loss is Evans to safety, so it's not a depth thing I don't think.
| Ohio State |
| ||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Terrelle Pryor | DeVier Posey WR | D. Sanzenbacher WR | |
| 3rd Year Starter 2009 STATS 56.6% 2094 Yards 18 TDs 10 INTs | 2009 STATS 60 Catches 828 Yards 8 TDs 13.8 YPC | 2009 STATS 36 Catches 570 Yards 6 TDs 15.8 YPC | |
Posey preseason all B10 guy (2nd Teamer last year), as is Pryor. Steel has this unit #2 but that was before they lost Duron Carter. I've seen some talk of people expecting Jake Stoneburner (TE) to step up. He came in same year Kevin Koger came to UofM, both guys out of Ohio.
| Purdue | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Robert Marve | Keith Smith WR | Kyle Adams TE | Cortez Smith WR |
| 2nd Year Starter 2009 STATS Redshirted last year after transferring from Miami. | 2009 STATS 91 Catches 1100 Yards 6 TDs 12.1 YPC | 2009 STATS 29 Catches 249 Yards 0 TDs 8.6 YPC | 2009 STATS 17 Catches 177 Yards 1 TDs 5 YPC |
Keith Smith 2nd Team all B10 last year and the conference's leading returning receiver. Steele has this unit ranked #9.
| Penn State | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Kevin Newsome or Paul Jones | Derek Moye WR | Graham Zug WR | Chaz Powell? |
| New Starter
| 2009 STATS 48 Catches 785 Yards 6 TDs 16.4 YPC | 2009 STATS 46 Catches 600 Yards 7 TDs 13 YPC | |
Chaz Powell was moved to corner, but may play WR some as well. Last year, 28 catches for 366 yards and 3 TDs. Steel has this unit ranked #3. Can the young QBs get them the ball, though?
| Illinois | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| N. Scheelhaase | Eddie McGee WR | Jarred Fayson WR | London Davis TE |
| New Starter | 2009 STATS New to position, actually (former QB who played behind Juice) | 2009 STATS 16 Catches 218 Yards 1 TDs 13.6 YPC | 2009 STATS 1 catch |
No one returning with more than 16 catches. Brand new redshirt freshman as starter. Probably doesn't bode well. Steele has this REC unit ranked #8, which seems generous to me.
Teams UofM doesn't play
And as luck would have it, Phil Steele has them ranked lowest of any receiver groups in the B10 (tied for 10th).
| Northwestern (Michigan does not play) | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Dan Persa | Drake Dunsmore SB | Sidney Stewart WR | Jeremy Ebert WR |
| New Starter 2009 STATS 58.8% 224 Yards 2TDs 2 INTs | 2009 STATS 47 Catches 523 Yards 3 TDs 11.1 YPC | 2009 STATS 42 Catches 470 Yards 2 TDs 11.2 YPC | 2009 STATS 21 Catches 226 Yards 0 TDs 10.8 YPC |
| Demetrius Fields WR | |||
| 2009 STATS 24 Catches 225 Yards 1 TDs 9.1 YPC | |||
Wildcats return a pretty good amount of catches and yards. Steele's lowish ranking is likely because they lost their top 2 production guys. Northwestern threw it a lot last year (Kafka had 494 attempts for 3420 yards).
| Minnesota (Michigan does not play) | |||
| QB | Returning Targets | ||
| Adam Weber | DaJon McKnight WR | Brandon Green WR | |
| 4th Year Starter 2009 STATS 52% 2582 13 TDS 15 INTs | 2009 STATS 17 Catches 311 Yards 0 TDs 18.3 YPC | 2009 STATS 21 Catches 293 Yards 1 TDs 14.0 YPC | |
The longest-tenured starting QB in the NCAA but doesn't seem to have a ton of weapons.
Very nice work sir. Thanks.
would have been nice to see Michigan up there with every other team in the B10 :)
if it's not too much trouble, would you mind putting Michigan in there? I realize all of Michigan's relevant information is accessible elsewhere on the site, but it would be nice for purposes of quick comparison.
Other than that, great job. I will likely bookmark this and refer to it many times during the next four-five months.
Added Michigan's. I assumed everyone would know, but you and Keith are right. The comparison of the numbers in the same place is useful.
nice blog. As you note, Steele makes some interesting and weird conclusions.
Patience young Padawan...believe in the Forcier.
I'll give up beer for a month if Ricky Stanzi makes all Big Ten QB. He'll be aiight, maybe, but he won't be better than Tolzien, Cousins, or Pryor. Or Chappel. Or Forcier/Robinson.
I may have just gone overboard; it suffices to say that he won't be all B10.
is a puzzle. Can look great, but can be a pick machine in the next breath. He definitely has experience and I think the best wide out combo in the B10 (maybe Doss and Belcher are as good ... I just haven't seen them much). It wouldn't shock me if he landed in any of the 1st, 2nd or 3rd team slots. But I like a lot of the QBs in the conference this year. Someone made a comment in a thread a few weeks ago that Big 10 quarterbacks were weak this year compared to the SEC's. At first this seemed right to me because beyond Pryor, there aren't any high profile guys. But you start looking over how many them are returning with at least one year under their belt (and multiple guys with 2 or more in Stanzi, Chappel, Pryor, Weber), and then look at some of their numbers, it's a pretty solid group, PSU's newbies and Scheelhaase notwithstanding.
I think Stanzi is really going to miss not having Moeaki as a reliable and steady safety valve at the TE. A competent TE can really make a play action passer like Stanzi boost the completion % and 3rd down conversion rate when teams double down the X & Z receivers.
I am pretty surprised Steele has Penn State ranked so highly. I recall Graham Zug having a pretty good game against us, but no experienced QB and apparently (going by the info posted here) only 2 proven options at WR does not an awesome pass-offense make. I do agree with Wisconsin being on top though, Nick Toon consistently made catches and looks to be a consistently strong player for the Badgers.
In the end, I suppose this neither comforts nor worries me as far as our secondary is concerned. It's useful to see which teams are supposed to have better passing attacks, but in the end I'm left with the feeling that if they can improve from "bad" to "ok" the secondary will do well against some teams and not well against others... which is about what I expected for the year anyway.
if I made it confusing, Steele's ranking only reflects receivers on team (and his ranking accounts for entire unit, not just the top returning guys I've listed). It's not an indication of the overall ranking of the passing attack, in other words. He ranks QBs separately, but like the receivers, ranks them as a unit so Michigan checks in as the #2 ranked QB unit in the B10 by virtue of having a couple guys that can make the offense go I suspect, not that Tate or Denard are better than Stanzi, Tolzein, Chapell, etc. individually. He's also got 5 QB units tied for 3rd best right behind Forcier/Robinson, so there you go ...
How can you have a five way tie? That just means he is too chicken-shit to pick one over the other.
Maybe he's making a statement with the 5-way tie. Something like, "preseason rankings like this are ridiculous and a complete crapshoot, BWAH HA HA."
Perchance?
My favorite part was the bonus Hoosier fact. For some reason*, I can't help but root for the Hoosiers a little.
*We haven't lost to them lately.
Al Toon is a stud.
Keshaun Martin will have a huge year for State and become one of the league's biggest threats. He's kind of been buried on the depth chart. Dantonio needs to get him the ball more.
Indiana's entire offense will do a lot of damage, but they wont stop anybody
I am scared to death that Pryor to Posey will take it up a notch or two this year. They seem ready for big things.
Two years ago at this point, MIchigan had the worst QB depth chart/situation in the league. Slowly, but surely we've come a long way at the postion. Not sure anybody in the league has the 1-2 -3 punch we have on the depth chart. We'll see if Denard's spring tranlates in the fall, Tate might be behind Pryor, Tolzien, Cousins and Stanzi right now, but he was a true freshmen. He'll gain ground on those guys. We'll see how the season plays out, but two years after having the worst QB situation in the league, the program is ready to compete on the top end of the scale, at least at this postion.
Toon. Papa was Al. And I concur on all points that you presented.
I was going to say this elsewhere, but you brought it out beautifully. Another poster (too lazy to look it up, insert 'lolsparty' joke here) mentioned that defenses would have to prepare for the WR option going through Nichol. They also have to key on the option going through Martin. During the spring game, MSU made A Concerted Effort to Get the Ball to Martin, including a pair of option passes, IIRC. He seems primed to light things up in all phases- if the right side of the OL can protect a little, that is.
It bears repeating, the pieces are there for Michigan too on offense. Forcier played pretty well as a freshman, and Robinson seems to have developed a lot too. This year should be fun to watch on offense.
Yes, it's July 19 and we're already getting geeked about football. God bless America.
At the end of the year, I think that we'll be close to the #3 or #4 range when it comes to the receivers. I think that Steele, in general, has our individual offensive units ranked too low. For example, I wouldn't trade our receivers for Penn State's and especially not Iowa's.
I'm kind of puzzled by all of the preseason hype that Stanzi is getting. His completion percentage was only 56% and he threw 15 interceptions last year as an upperclassman second year starter. If Stanzi was a freshman I could understand it, but if you are still throwing as many bad INTs as a junior as Stanzi did, you have probably hit your ceiling.
Thanks for this. It's crazy to think about how better Tate's numbers would have looked without that OSU game. Even still, for a Freshman, to think that his numbers aren't all that far off from the other QBs in the conference is promising for the future. In fact, I'd take his numbers over Stanzi's. Is that un-American?
It's going to be hard for our players individually to keep up with some teams (total TDs, total yards) but it'll be for a great reason: distributing the football around well enough to satisfy the WLA.
Osu, Msu, Iowa, Wisky, Uconn are run first teams....that to me means the linebackers may be key. If you cant stop the run with these teams the passing part is academic. But, dont get me wrong, the secondary is still a BIG concern.
ps- I think, given their potential weaknesses, ND may be running a lot more this year....
but both Iowa and Wisky hurt UM with the TE over the middle.
If Cousins were to get hurt, would MSU move Nichol back to QB, or are they confident with their remaining depth at the position?
reading Andre Maxwell had a pretty good spring and solidified back up spot. I assume the staff was pretty confident in him at the end of last year anyway and knew they could afford to move Nichol over. I can't imagine the staff getting him reps all spring and in camp at WR, and then throwing him back under center in an emergency during the season.
In the unlikely event Cousins and Maxwell both got hurt, on the other hand, it might be interesting whether Boisture would get the call or if they would hurry Nichol back over.
I fully expect Nichol to throw the ball a couple times in the next two years from the wide out spot. Teams will have to prepare for it at the very least.
Now people can pick him off as a WR. (Hey-O!)
That was well done. Even as an MSU fan, I had to give you a point for that.
I thought this was going to be an easy answer, I really did. Nichol took every rep in the spring game at the X receiver spot and everything I heard indicated that they were going to use Maxwell as the backup. But if Cousins AND Maxwell went down, I have to think Dantonio might put him back in at QB (he was listed at both positions in the depth chart). Boisture didn't look good in the spring game, so they might be looking to redshirt him- why burn a redshirt if you have a variably viable option?
Sooo, Nichol's likely to stay at WR unless something happens that causes me to pull my hair out and kick puppies.
Tate needs to step up into the pocket more and not lose the ball after getting hit. Tate should have the basic offense down and be ready to take on more complex spread plays. Robinson will continue to improve as well. If DROB develops a passing game, watch out!!!! Both QB's will be able to lead this team and I'm sure both will get playing time.
He's not Moeaki as an pro prospect. But, he's very comparable to some above average TE's that Ferentz has produced. He's had a number of starts(especially as a junior)and he's muscled up in the off-season.FWIW-- TE's in their fifth year's tend to really play well at Iowa.The "X" factor at TE might be CJ Fiedorowitz one of the top TE's in the country. A 6'7" 250 TE with a reported(fake) 4.5 40. He was Lemming's nationally top TE and I believe rivals.com's #2 TE. He's not 4.5 fast but, surprisingly fast and agile for his size. He has great hands. So, while he's probably not going to start he's capable of coming in and playing early. Brett Meyer's their expected second string TE is another guy they're pretty high on. Given I
Soph. was a "four-star" recruit(not loads of them in Iowa City.)WR Keenan Davis-had a lot of quality offers and Erik Campbell has described him as a freshman as "the best WR at the same stage he'd ever coached"....than includes, ummm, some good players. They have quite a bit of depth at WR.
So, overall, this might be the best group of receivers that Ferentz as coached.
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