Game Day Weather

Submitted by mgoweather on October 25th, 2019 at 1:19 PM

Yeesh. We've had beautiful night games and we've had rough ones, and this is going to be a rough one. Rain will start during the tailgate and continue for the entire game. Steady rain. The. ENTIRE. game. Rumbles of thunder are possible as well. Sigh. We have a low pressure system lifting northward out of the south bringing lots of moisture up from the Gulf - the remnants of a tropical depression. As it moves right across the state, rain will carry over into the first part of Sunday before ending. Temperatures will briefly dip toward gametime, then rise into the early morning hours Sunday, remaining in the mid 50s for the most part. Oh and you didn't think we were going to escape this one with a calm wind, did ya? Nope. It'll be breezy too. Double sigh. Dress in layers for the day and grab the raincoat or poncho for this win over Notre Dame, along with the boots! Let's go blue!

Tailgating

Need anything last minute for the tailgate? You're in luck! We'll start Saturday dry with a little bit of sunshine. Reminder - the sun doesn't come up until 8am now! It'll definitely be cool with temps near 30! You early birds may need the winter coat! Winds will be calm so at least we don't have to add in an extra chill. Patchy fog is possible so make sure to leave the low beams on and give yourself an extra minute or two if you're heading out to grab that last ingredient. Enjoy any bit of brightness while it lasts as clouds will fill in during the first part of the day. Despite the clouds, we'll still warm to 40 by mid-morning and 50 for lunchtime - still plenty of time to enjoy the tailgate if you slept in :) Make sure to tie the tent down! You'll notice it's a bit breezier by the midday. We'll begin to have steady ESE winds at 10-15mph by the time you're lighting the grill for lunchtime burgers & brats. This is enough that loose paper and leaves will blow around, so make sure to put a rock on the napkin and paper plate stacks! We're making it into the mid 50s for the afternoon, so exchange that winter coat for the poncho. It'll be cloudy with showers starting to move in as we finish out the afternoon.

Kickoff

We'll dip back toward the 50 degree mark to get this game started. Good thing the giveaway is a towel, right?! Overcast skies will continue, along with the steady rain. A thunderstorm isn't likely but it's possible, so don't rule out issues for this game timing-wise. Winds will stay out of the ESE at 15mph, with some gusts around 20mph (you'd see a lot of white horses on the lake, small trees sway with this level of wind speed). This game is supposed to have a parachute jump - we'll see if that happens.      

Halftime

Are you tired of the rain yet? Welp, bad news bears - the rain will keep falling. :(  We could easily pick up a good quarter inch of rain by the time we're halfway through the game. Winds are staying up right where they are through the second half with temps actually going up a degree or two. This is a good game to grab a dinner snack under a roof!

Post-Game

Aren't you glad you wore the poncho and rain boots? That walk to the car will be muddy - careful walking along the fence along the golf course! With rain and leaves, that muddy trek will be a bit slick. The course itself will be soggy so take care if you're walking back to the tailgate area. Temperatures will be in the low 50s for the end of the game with an ESE wind at around 15mph, gusting to 20 or so. Are you grabbing a late-night frosty beverage? (If you wore a poncho, go for it. If you're soaked and now smell like wet dog, that's a no go buddy, just head home, everyone thanks you ;)  ) Mid 50s by the time the lights come on, and it'll be a mad dash to the Uber or that poncho will be coming back out of your back pocket for the walk home - steady showers will still be coming down. Stay out too late celebrating a win over the Irish? Sunday will be perfect to sleep in. Rain will continue to move across the area into the start of Sunday with 1-2" of rainfall expected for most. Showers wind down later in the day with highs around 60 and cloudy skies. The weather doesn't look great, but we can still keep our spirits high and our cheers loud! Let's go blue!!!

CHRISTINA BURKHART IS THE MORNING METEOROLOGIST FOR ABC IN FLINT, MI. SHE GREW UP IN ANN ARBOR AND ASSOCIATES SATURDAYS WITH MICHIGAN FOOTBALL. GO BLUE!!

Comments

MGoBlue96

October 25th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^

So is it safe to say the rain and wind will be in Columbus just in time for their game and then start going downhill here in Michigan just in time for PSU/MSU?

Arb lover

October 25th, 2019 at 2:46 PM ^

Wind less impact on modern parachutes than you'd suspect. They can always just compensate with the drop location as well. Still,very much hoping that Christina brings in the win tomorrow.

You Only Live Twice

October 25th, 2019 at 4:16 PM ^

I appreciate you not sugar coating it.  Have to be prepared for this one. Character building time!

GO BLUE!!

jbuch002

October 25th, 2019 at 5:33 PM ^

I've been following the wx real closely. I've got a background in aviation so, I can read weather maps and understand the lingo but I'm not a meteorologist like our diarist is. It's a good forecast, as usual.

Having said that, make sure you take a look at the first paragraph of Brian's Game Preview post. It will give you a very good idea of what kind of rain tailgaters and those committed enough to M football to watch the game in the Big House will experience.

It might be tolerable. It's still sucks and the weather for this game is another example of how football Gods seem to hate Michigan. At the same time, Ann Arbor is on the Northern edge of the rain swath not in the center of it like Metro Detroit is. Moreover, the heaviest rains will be on the Eastern most aspect of that same rain swath. Now this is, again, hair splitting, and a good meteorologist like our diarist is, won't sugar coat - they'll give you worst case. I can afford to sugar coat. So, I have.

Dress appropriately and enjoy. Anyone that's done this knows how to survive the weather challenges often present watching outdoor football games.

jbuch002

October 25th, 2019 at 6:31 PM ^

Here's a link to WeatherBell Analytics. This group does detailed weather forecasting. Some of their stuff is free, like this interactive forecast precipitation amounts map. 

The point is you can see how through 8pm Saturday night, The area that Ann Arbor is within has a rainfall total of 0.3 - 0.7 inches. That's a light drizzle for a 6h period from 2pm to 8pm. By 2am Sunday morning, the next 6h period, the rain total is 1.2".  That's a bit less than 0.1"/h ..... light rain. At least I'm maybe wishfully thinking that.

https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/model/ndfd-conus?d=conus&p=total_precip_inch