Welcome to the 116th edition of The Game!

The Game is why I’m here. The Game is why I’ve been reading for ~12 years. The Game is why I’ve been posting for the past 2+ years. And The Game is why you’ll neg me. Because Rivalry.

We all know what’s at stake in terms of both championships & honor, so let’s get right to it.

What will determine the winner of The Game? The same thing that typically determines the winner of most football games played anywhere at any time: The Trenches.

The trenches, the trenches, the trenches.

Because I’m a numbers guy and not an X&O’s guy, I’ll leave the X&O’s to Seth & Brian who know more than I can comprehend. But I am Stat Geek, so I’m going to take a deep look at the numbers.

We all know that if Michigan is going to win this game, they will need to do some things that no other OSU opponent has done. So, what will Michigan need to do that no other team has yet been able to do?

(Click here to view the Google Sheet with all the good, yummy data.)

WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL

Rushing

Only two teams have rushed for more than 137 yards (sack-adjusted) against OSU: Northwestern for 166 and Nebraska for 207. Caveats:

• NW got 166 yards because they ran it 46 times. (for 3.6 YPC)
• Nebraska got to 207 because of garbage time. Nebraska’s last two possessions (after it was already 48-0) were 22 plays for 140 total yards. Prior to those last two possessions, Nebraska’s offense had 34 plays and moved the ball forward for only 101 total yards (net of both off. & def. penalties).

The offenses that more closely resemble Michigan (PSU & Wisc) went for 131 & 113. Therefore, if Michigan rushes for 150+, they’ll do something that basically hasn’t been done against OSU’s 1st team defense. That certainly doesn’t seem like a target that’s terribly out of reach for Michigan.

Michigan has rushed for more than 250 yards three times, so they’re certainly capable. However, against the defenses that more closely resemble OSU’s defense (Wisconsin, PSU, MSU, & Iowa) they ran for 55, 148, 126 & 135. Not once eclipsing the 150-yard mark. That might make a decent target threshold: if Michigan gets 150 yards, it should be a positive sign for them.

Five teams have rushed for at least 4.0 YPC (sack-adjusted) against OSU: they rushed for 4.0, 4.2, 4.5, 4.7 and…5.9! The 5.9 was Nebraska which, again, was mostly against 2nd, even 3rd, team defense. Some of those offenses benefitted by facing defensive backups for most (or all) of the 2nd half. More applicably, PSU and Wisconsin put up 4.2 & 3.9 respectively. So, 4.0 YPC for Michigan falls in line with that. If Michigan goes for 4.5 YPC, they’ll do something that no other team has done against OSU’s 1st team defense.

Michigan rushed for ~6.0 YPC on three occasions, the same three games they ran for over 250 yards. Against the closest comparisons (Wisconsin, PSU, Iowa & MSU), Michigan rushed for 3.2, 3.7, 4.4 & 4.2 YPC. About 4.0-4.5 is a decent target range for Michigan if they want to do good things.

Therefore, 150 yards rushing at ~4.5 YPC would be decent enough a rushing performance for Michigan to do against OSU what no other opponent has.

Passing

Only three teams have thrown for 200+ yards against OSU (despite the deficits these teams have had), none for more than 218. Michigan is definitely capable of passing for more yards than has any previous OSU opponent, particularly the post-resurgent Michigan which passed for 366 & 384 against non-slouch defenses Indiana & MSU. Michigan has passed for more than 218 yards eight times. But OSU has held seven opponents to no more than 128 yards passing, including PSU & Wisconsin.

OSU allowed 6.0 YPA three times: Indiana (6.0), Wisconsin (6.4; on only 17 attempts, completing 10), and Cincinnati (7.2). Given that OSU won those games 127-17, that’s not particularly telling. PSU, the closest comp to Michigan, passed for 4.6.

Michigan surpassed 7.2 YPA (the highest OSU has allowed) six times, three of them more than 11.0. Against Wisconsin, PSU, and Iowa, they passed for 6.2, 6.7 & 5.7 YPA; but that was all pre-resurgence. Against ND, MSU & Indiana, they threw for 9.6, 11.6 & 11.4 YPA.

The success of Michigan’s passing game is the best hope for Michigan fans that they can score enough to win. By OSU’s defensive standards, a 200-yard day at 6.0 YPA is to be expected. Based on Michigan’s recent success in the passing game, the standard is 300+ yards at ~11.0 YPA. That’s a big difference there!

If Michigan passes for 220 yards (I fully expect they will) at 7.5 YPA, that will be more successful than any opponent has been previously, but 300/8.0+ is definitely not out of the question.

Total Yards

OSU has not yet allowed 300 total yards this season (most = 285), nor has anyone averaged 5.0 yards per play (highest = 4.8). Only three teams eclipsed more than 4.0 YPP. The best offenses OSU faced (Indiana, PSU & Wisconsin) had 257, 227 & 191 total yards at rates of 3.8, 3.5 & 3.7 YPP. MSU did manage 285 yards @ 4.4 per play.

Michigan has exceeded 400 total yards seven times, 450+ five of those. Only twice has Michigan failed to average 4.8 YPP: Army & Iowa. They’ve gotten 7.0+ YPP four times, including each of the last two.

The bare minimum for Michigan to do more than any other OSU opponent is 300 total yards and/or 5.0 YPP.

If they do more than any other opponent both rushing (150 @ 4.5 YPC) and passing (220 @ 7.5 YPA) they’ll have at least 370 yards @ ~6.0 YPP, far and away more than anybody has done against OSU all year.

WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL

Rushing

OSU’s three lowest rushing totals (sack-adjusted) were 243, 234 & 221…against…uh…FAU, Miami (NTM) & Rutger. Because who cares. Against defenses that matter (PSU, Wisconsin, Indiana & MSU) they ran for 257, 300, 318 & 346. Twice they nearly got to 400 (vs. Nebraska & Maryland).

Michigan has allowed 200 yards only twice: Army (duh!) & Wisconsin (double duh!). The problem with the Wisconsin game is not that they got 200+, but that they got nearly double that: 370. Against Indiana, PSU, MSU, Iowa & ND they allowed only 115, 108, 76, 66 & 53. Michigan is certainly capable of holding decent offenses (not named Wisconsin) to around 100 yards rushing or less. If Michigan holds OSU to as few as 200 yards rushing, it will be the least amount of rushing yards OSU has gotten all season; 250 will be less than any relevant opponent.

OSU averaged more than 7.3 YPC five times; they were held under 6.0 YPC four times: three of them (5.9, 5.3 & 5.1) are the least-relevant defenses of all, the same three that held OSU under 250 yards. The other is PSU at 4.4. That becomes Michigan’s benchmark; to hold OSU under 4.4 YPC would be something no other opponent has done.

Michigan has held every opponent but one to 4.4 YPC or less (you can guess the one). If PSU’s defense did it, Michigan’s defense is certainly capable. <4.4 YPC it is.

Passing

OSU has thrown for more than 300 yards on three occasions, but none of them against a relevant defense; in no other game did they throw for more than 238 yards. Against MSU, Indiana, PSU, Wisconsin, and Northwestern, they threw for 206, 214, 188, 167 & 201; all seeming to hover around 200.

Eight of Michigan’s opponents have been held to less than 200 yards passing. Michigan’s pass rush & secondary are certainly capable of giving OSU problems, but expecting them to hold OSU under 200 yards passing may not be a fair expectation. After all, OSU has not had to throw much in the second half of most games, or they have been rushing the ball well they haven’t needed to throw. But if Michigan is able to hold OSU to under 200 yards passing (like PSU & Wisconsin did), they’ll do something few others have done.

Against irrelevant defenses, OSU passed for 12.5, 11.1, 9.6, 8.9 & 8.8 YPA; against Wisconsin, Indiana, MSU, PSU & Northwestern they passed for 7.6, 7.4, 8.2, 8.5 & 7.7 YPA. That’s all hovering around 8.0.

Michigan has held every opponent but one to 8.0 YPA or less. The lone exception? Army. (?) Holding OSU to 7.3 YPA or less is not unrealistic; OSU has been held close to that multiple times already and Michigan has already held PSU & Indiana to 7.3 & 7.5 YPA.

Total Yards

Four teams have held OSU to less than 500 yards: FAU (469), PSU (417), NW (480), and Wisconsin (431).

Those PSU & Wisconsin numbers are particularly relevant.

Michigan has held every opponent to under 500 yards. After we get past the 487 Wisconsin got, no other team has gotten more than 321 against Michigan; eight of them less than 300. Michigan’s defense is capable of holding OSU to ~400 yards; but they’re also capable of the Wisconsin gashing. If Michigan is to do something against OSU that no other opponent has done, they’ll hold OSU to 400 total yards.

OSU has been held to less than 7.0 YPP only three times, two of them are quite relevant: 6.0 vs. Wisconsin, 5.0 vs. PSU.

Michigan has held every opponent to less than 7.0 YPP. Wisconsin got 6.7 and PSU got 5.2, every other opponent sub-5.0. If PSU held OSU to 5.0 YPP, Michigan can also hold OSU to 5.0 YPP.

 

Tl;dr version:

If Michigan is going to win The Game, they’ll have to do some things that no other opponent has done against OSU. What are some of those things?

When Michigan has the ball…

150 rushing yards and/or 4.5+ YPC

220 passing yards and/or 7.5+ YPA

300 total yards and/or 5.0+ YPP

…if Michigan’s offense does any of these things, they’ll do more than OSU’s defense has allowed against any previous opponents.

When Ohio State has the ball…

250 rushing yards and/or <4.4 YPC

200 passing yards and/or <7.3 YPA

400 total yards and/or <5.0 YPP

…if Michigan’s defense prevents OSU’s offense from reaching any of these benchmarks, they will have done something no other relevant opponent has done.

LET' S GET IT ON!!!