Ta Ta, IU. [Bryan Fuller]

The Unwinnable Game

My oldest friend in the world is a guy named Mike. He grew up in a suburb outside Toledo, OH. Once every month or so when I was a kid, my family would make the 45 minute trek down US-23 to the Worst State Ever to spend a long evening with Mike's family.

Each time Mike and I were together, we played NCAA Football until our thumbs bled.

Now, Mike is a Buckeye (I'm sure if I keep posting these diaries I'll detail my feelings on being best friends with the enemy one day, but today is not that day) and I'm a Wolverine (duh), and what we loved to do more than anything when we played NCAA was take our favorite players from the current Buckeye and Wolverine rosters and make a super-squad. Imagine arguing with a Buckeye about whether Denard Robinson or Terrelle Pryor should start...

Of course, when you make a super-squad in NCAA, it isn't all that hard to win every game by at least five touchdowns, win five straight national championships in Dynasty Mode, and build a literally unstoppable machine.

Over time, we upped the difficulty––not just moving from the Junior Varsity to Varsity to All-American to Heisman setting, but also in the teams we endeavored to turn into champions. We started dynasties with past-generation powerhouses to restore their greatness. We helped bring middle-of-the-pack Power Five programs to perennial national relevance. We took the most destitute drecks of the FBS and tried to build them from nothing to something. We found that, if we were patient enough, we could eventually turn any school into a title contender.

When you play a game as much as Mike and I played NCAA, you eventually discover how to exploit the game for maximum success. For example, in Dynasty Mode, if you wait about 4-5 weeks into the season, you can sort through recruits based on how far along they are in their decision process. You'll note that many of the recruits you already have on your board are around 40% committed, but there are still plenty of recruits out there closer to 15%. This isn't just true of the three and two stars––there are often several five stars that still have not made any progress on their decision. If you show these recruits attention, no matter how bad your school is, you'll rapidly send their recruiting board, and often be able to get many of them to sign. This was how Mike and I frequently ended up with 10+ five stars in our dynasty every year.

Obviously, there are several gameplay "cheats" of which to take advantage, too. I'll briefly detail two offensive plays that come to mind that were virtually easy money against any opponent.

(1) Read Option. Even if you didn't have a fast QB, this more or less guaranteed you an 8 yard run every time. You could run these out of pistol formations (in which the RB would run a dive between the center and guard, and the QB would go around the edge if you pulled it) or shotgun formations (in which the RB would run off the tackle opposite him, and if you pulled it your QB would go off the tackle in front of the RB). These always worked because the computer's DE/LB never tried to play both options––he always committed to either the RB or the QB well before you needed to pull the ball out or hand it off. It was so easy to tell if the defensive player was crashing or waiting for the QB to pull it, you could always make the right decision.

(2) Smash. At least I believe it was called that. It could've been called TE Smash. Or something else. Either way, you'd select the shotgun formation with triple WRs and an inline TE with his hand in the dirt on the opposite side of the field to the receivers (one RB in the backfield). The TE would run a flag route (a post, but you make your diagonal cut to the sideline rather than to the middle of the field). Provided the defense was in man, the TE was always covered by a LB or a safety, and as soon as he made his cut, you could toss the ball to him for an easy 15+ yard gain. If the defense was in a zone look (you know because they would be a corner on the TE's side of the field), you simply audible to your read option picked up 8+ yards.

Mike and I literally played whole games where we only ran these two plays. We'd end up with absurd stats like a 14/273/4 day for the tight end, or 200+ rush yards for both the RB and QB.

(For anyone curious, we'd run man coverage on defense and play as the defender who was sent to cover the RV. On a run play, we'd sprint towards the RB to stuff him at the line. On a pass play, if the RV stayed in to block, we'd blitz. If the RB ran a route, we cover the RB and hope the rest of the coverage held up for long enough that one of our previously recruited five star defensive ends got home. Sometimes we'd switch to playing DE on those last variations.)

However, there were sometimes games where all our little wrinkles completely failed to work. It didn't matter who you were playing (say: Indiana) because no matter what you did and no matter how well you felt you played you were going to lose that game in a totally heartbreaking fashion because NCAA just wanted you to. These are the unwinnable games.

We would call a read option, ready for our easy 8 yards, only to find the defense had a defensive end and a linebacker watching the mesh point, so handing it off or pulling resulted in a 3 yard loss no matter what. We would run our TE Smash play and throw it to the wide-open tight end, but he'd either inexplicably drop it or the linebacker covering him would suddenly teleport to cover the distance and intercept it. And then, when the offense finally did click for a play, the refs would jump in and call a penalty and we would be right back where we started: totally screwed.

These games were beyond frustrating. They were screaming-at-the-TV, throwing-the-controller, punching-a-pillow infuriating. They could ruin an entire season in the dynasty, which meant that it more or less would ruin an entire evening with my oldest friend. (Hyperbole, but still...)

These games were like the first half against Indiana.

But then we'd hit a hard reset (aka rage quit), boot it back up, and find ourselves coasting to aggressively inflated stat lines, record-setting performances, and good times again.

The Week Before

Game with Bet Team in CAPS (Bet) [Win/Loss/Push] (Result) [Units]

Nebraska at RUTGERS (U 23.5) [Win] (13) [+9 units]

Rutgers scored a touchdown on their first Drive, then blocked a punt to set up a short field, but blessedly only came away with a field goal. Although there were times when Nebraska's utter inability to tackle Rutgers players behind the line of scrimmage had me clenching, the Scarlet Knights only scored three more points for the rest of the game, including zero in the second half. God bless Greg Schiano for letting Evan Simon continue to throw the football. I am going to ride the Rutgers unders until he realizes the error of his ways.

MICHIGAN at Indiana (1st Half; -11.5) [Loss] (0) [-10 units]

Even Murphy himself would've been surprised by everything that went wrong for the Wolverines in the first half. The office looked clunky. The Hoosiers crowded the box, and with no Roman Wilson to take the top off the defense it took everything Blake Corum had to get something decent on the ground. There were lots of penalties—some were deserved, some were very much not deserved. The Hoosiers blocked a Moody field goal; Michigan blocked one, too, but it didn't totally make up for the negative vibes. Oh, and legendary running back Mike Hart had a seizure and needed to be rushed to the hospital; thankfully, he's going to be alright. At least Michigan tightened the screws in the second half and comfortably closed this one out.

Purdue at MARYLAND (-3) [Loss] (+2) [-10 units]

Maryland's excellent kicker Chad Ryland missed a 52 yard field goal (he was 9 of 13 on 50+ yarders in his career) and then had an extra point blocked when the refs neglected to call what the Internet has deemed a blatant offsides on Purdue (my two cents: shrug). Maryland was able to make it 31-29 with less than a minute left, but had their successful two point conversion negated by an ineligible man downfield penalty. They couldn't convert again from the 8 yard line to force OT. In a lot of other universes, Maryland covered (or at least pushed) the spread, so I don't really feel that bad about making the wrong call here. I'm also happy to report that the one game this week I thought would be decent to watch was actually decent to watch.

Wisconsin at Northwestern (U 44) [Loss] (49) [-10 units]

This is another instance where I don't feel so terrible about making the wrong call. Here's the scenario: Wisconsin is up 35–7 with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter, and Northwestern has struggled to move the ball all day. If you replace Wisconsin with Michigan or Ohio State, that means it's back up time. But Wisconsin trots out their starters. Graham Mertz. Braelon Allen. Chimere Dike. Check check check. Excuse my French, but the Badgers are a bunch of bastards for doing this. Maybe you can talk me into forgiving them because it's Jim Leonhard's first game as a head coach at all, and he's trying to turn what has been a bad year around by maintaining the momentum, but this was a very unclassy move by the cheesemakers.

OHIO STATE at Michigan State (-26.5) [Win] (-29) [+9 units]

This could've been so much worse for the Spartans if the buckeyes hadn't gifted them so many points. MSU's first touchdown was a pick six, but only because CJ Stroud and his receiver were on different pages, and the Heisman candidate threw it right to the MSU defensive back. MSU needed multiple OSU defensive penalties to score a second touchdown. They got a third touchdown in the middle of the fourth quarter down by 36 with backup QB Noah Kim. If you remove the yards gained on "Noah's Garbage Time Touchdown Adventure: Episode 3," OSU had three different scale position players accumulate more rushing/receiving yards (TreVeyon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka, and Marvin Harrison Jr.) than MSU had total yards. The Spartans must really be keeping everything under wraps until the Michigan game. There can't be another explanation.

Iowa at Illinois (U 36.5) [Win] (15) [+9 units]

Every week, without fail, Pro Football Focus' "Greenline" recommends that I take the over in whatever game Iowa is playing. I never listen because I know the truth: computers don't have eyes. I have eyes. I've seen Iowa play football with them. I used to have a soul, but then I used my eyes to watch Iowa play football. This week, Iowa played Agro Iowa. Collectively, Iowa and Agro Iowa made five field goals. Even if you turned all those field goals into touchdowns with extra points made, the under still would've hit. I love the Big Ten so freaking much.

The Week Ahead: Favorites and Unders

A quick reminder that I use the Vegas Insider Consensus (from vegasinsider.com) spreads, totals, and money lines. They are current as of the time the diary is posted. You might be able to get better odds/spreads/totals/money lines if you look at multiple different sports books.

Also, I want to stress that this diary is ideally intended more for entertainment than it is for profitable advice. Do your own research. Take my words with many grains of salt, because I truthfully have no clue what I'm talking about. You’ve been warned. Gamble responsibility.

Minnesota (-6.5) at Illinois [Total: 39.5]

When the Golden Gophers have the ball: Without Mo Ibrahim, Minnesota’s offense cratered against Purdue. Tanner Morgan threw for 7.8 YPA, but had three INTs and zero TDs. Backup RBs Trey Potts and Bryce Williams ran the ball 20 times for 48 yards (2.4 YPC); neither had a carry for 10+ yards. Before the Boilermakers, the Gophers and Ibrahim compiled great offensive stats against legitimate trash: NMSU, W Illinois, Colorado, and MSU. Purdue was their first test (21st in SP+/27th in FEI), but their star RB missed the game, so it’s hard to tell if they are legitimately good when Ibrahim plays or they just can’t hack it against good defenses. They’ll face their toughest test this week when they play the Illinois defense (4th/4th). What makes all this even harder to predict is that you could argue that the jury’s still out on the Illini defense, too. The best offense they’ve played this year is Wisconsin (55th/47th), and Paul Chryst was fired a day after that game. (Note: The rest of the offenses Illinois has faced rank 89th or lower in SP+ and FEI.) The Illini play aggressively. Against three WR sets (what the Gophers usually run), they shove seven dudes into a tight box four yards from the line of scrimmage––five lineman (two stand up edges) and two LBs. However, this makes them vulnerable downfield. After watching the tape, I don’t think their corners are all they’re cracked up to be: the just-alright Badger receivers regularly had multiple steps on the secondary. (Of course, Graham Mertz also regularly missed them, so it worked out for the Illini in the end.) There are just so many questions on this side of the ball. Is Tanner Morgan good enough to pick apart this secondary? Can the untested Gopher offensive line hold up against a unique Illini look? Is Mo Ibrahim God’s Gift to the 10,000 Lakes State or just a pretty good football player? We’ll find out.

When the Illini have the ball: Tommy DeVito seems unlikely to start at this point, so that means it’s Artur Sitkowski time! His stat line against Iowa is chef’s kiss: 13/19 for 74 yards (3.9 YPA) and one INT. True, the Illinois offense doesn’t ask its QB to throw downfield (nearly 65% of DeVito’s throws travel fewer than 10 yards in the air, whereas guys like Graham Mertz and Spencer Petras are closer to 50%), but it’s still appreciably disgusting. Chase Brown has put up consistently impressive stats this year (100+ rush yards in every game), but what happens when the entire defense is allowed to key in on stopping him? For what it’s worth, I came away impressed with the Minnesota defense after watching the tape against Purdue (unquestionably the best offense they’ve played, as they’re 30th in SP+ and 36th in FEI). They play much more conservatively than the Illinois defense does, but they regularly provided the Gopher offense with near-midfield starting position. The points they allowed were hard to come by: the first TD only happened because Purdue got bailed out by a sketchy PI call on the previous third down; the first FG only happened because Fleck decided to go for it on 4th and 1 at his own 29 (!); the second FG only happened because Chuck Sizzle made an incredibly impressive catch; and the second TD only happened because Devin Mockobee had an out-of-body experience (oh, and safety Michael Dixon took what I would call a not good angle on 1st and 10––what became a 68 yard rush very easily could’ve been a three yard play). If DeVito plays, you could maybe talk me into around 20 points for Illinois, but if he doesn’t you probably can’t talk me into more than 10.

Bottom Line: Minnesota has a bunch of questions that I think are still unanswered about their offense, and they face what should be their toughest test of the year in the Illinois defense. For all we know, Illinois’ just okay QB will not play and their not just okay backup will. I know, it looks low already, but I like the under here. A score like 23-10 or 16-13 or 13-7 wouldn’t shock me.

What should you bet? Under 39.5.

What if you like it spicy? Parlay that with Minnesota (-6.5).

Penn State at Michigan (-7) [Total: 51.5]

When the Nittany Lions have the ball: There’s a case to be made that PSU TE Brenton Strange is the scariest player this defense has faced all year. He’s seen less than a third of the targets Sam LaPorta has, but he’s brought in 15 of his 16 looks, and four of his receptions have gone for TDs. Strange also averages 10.0 yards after catch, whereas LaPorta averages just 4.4. If the linebackers/safeties can’t cover him, it could be a very frustrating day for the defense. Otherwise, though, I’m not sure why I’m supposed to fear this offense. Sean Clifford is a second-tier Big Ten QB and liable to shatter at any moment. He’s throwing to a receiving core that Alex Drain ranked 3rd in his “The Enemy” column pre-season, but has thus far not performed as such by any metric. The Nittany Lion run game ranks 91st in the country in EPA (expected points added) with -0.05 per CFB Graphs; this might be because the line is 83rd in line yards and 112th in opportunity rate per Football Outsiders. The only other question that still remains is regarding Michigan’s pass rush. I know the Wolverines were in Bazelak’s grill all day, but PSU is 35th in sack rate and grade at 68.0 per PFF (Hoosiers are 70th and 44.2 respectively), and that’s with Clifford holding the ball for 0.37 seconds longer per play than Bazelak. I’m optimistic that Morris and Okie can run him down a few times, and if they can’t I don’t believe PSU’s offensive line isn’t good enough to pick up some tricky Minter blitzes.

When the Wolverines have the ball: I’m not scared of the Penn State offense, but I’m plenty scared of their defense. A successful offensive outing for Michigan must consist of (at least some of) the following: (1) Harbaugh opening up the playbook. It’s not going to be enough to keep it vanilla. They have to encourage JJ McCarthy to keep on the zone reads. They have to work the running backs more into the passing game. They might even have to pull out a flea flicker. (2) Better play from the WRs/the return of Roman Wilson. Penn State’s corners are flat out fantastic. PFF ranks Kalen King as the 6th best coverage corner in the country and Joey Porter Jr. as the 21st. Opponent caveats apply, sure, but against Purdue (their toughest opponent) they were wearing them like gloves. Andrel Anthony or Cornelius Johnson needs to step up if Roman Wilson doesn’t return. (3) Put skill players in space with the ball. Whether this means throwing screens, running Blake Corum against lighter boxes, or whatever, this is vital because Penn State is the worst tackling team in the Big Ten. They’ve missed a whopping 21.7% of their tackles this year. Second worst in the Big Ten is Northwestern at 19.3%. (Michigan is first with 11.9%.) Now, am I confident in any of these things happening? Meh. Ask me after the game. I don’t think I’m confident in all of these things happening, though, so I expect a slightly frustrating day from the Michigan offense, but enough points to win.

Bottom Line: Both teams might struggle to move the ball, but if one team moves the ball well it’s going to be Michigan. Either way, Harbaugh loves to shut it down when the win isn’t in doubt, which could lead to a low-scoring back door cover. I like the under here, and if the over hits it’s probably because the offense found its groove and took advantage of PSU’s weaknesses.

What should you bet? Under 51.5.

What if you like it spicy? Parlay that with Michigan (-7).

Wisconsin (-7.5) at Michigan State [Total: 49]

When the Badgers have the ball: “Oh friends, no more these sounds! / Let us sing more cheerful songs / More full of joy!” Ah, can you hear it?! It is the melodious voice of Chimere Dike singing as the bus circumnavigates Lake Michigan on its way to East Lansing. Oh, how glorious he must feel! To be released from the confines of Paul Chryst’s offense! To be unleashed on the Northwestern Wildcats! Oh, what joy is 10 receptions, 185 yards, and 3 touchdowns! (I’d hate to crush the young man’s enthusiasm, but it is worth pointing out that Jim Leonhard only played him 17 snaps… But 11 targets on 17 snaps is just bonkers. Get this man more snaps, man!) And now the Badgers face a secondary arguably even more belligerently porous than NW’s: the Spartans allow 0.2 more yards per pass attempt than the Wildcats. It’s a shame that TE Clay Cundiff is out for the year––he would’ve had a chance to feast against MSU linebackers Cal Haladay and Ben VanSumeren (55.2 and 60.1 on PFF). The problem is that Wisconsin might not take advantage of this as much as they should (or could, considering Mertz is not very good). The Badgers like to run the ball, and the Spartans are (at least relatively) stout against the run. If you remove their longest run of the day, the Washington backs, the Minnesota backs, and the Maryland backs all went under 3.0 yards per carry against MSU (TreVeyon Henderson still cracked 5.0 with his longest run removed). If we similarly take away Braelon Allen’s longest run against bad defenses (Illinois St, NMSU, Northwestern) and his 75 yard TD against OSU’s backups, he’s averaging a worse than pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry… oh my Lord, am I going to pick another under? No, I can’t. This secondary is just too bad.

When the Spartans have the ball: Let’s start it here and let’s start it now: Michigan State should be starting Noah Kim at QB over Payton Thorne. Am I saying this because I’m impressed by Kim’s resume? Eh. He’s only played garbage time, but when you complete 74% of your passes for 9.2 YPA and have a 3:0 touchdown to interception ratio, I’ll at least listen. The main reason he should start over Thorne is because Thorne just hasn’t been good. Like, at all. Did you know Thorne’s average depth of target is shorter than Connor Bazelak’s? Did you know it’s shorter than Ryan Hilinski’s? And Evan Simon’s? That shows a total lack of trust, whether that’s the coaches in Thorne or Thorne in himself. I’d lean towards the latter: watching the tape against Minnesota shows an offense that almost exclusively is set up to run drag routes off waggles. That’s fine as long as you have something else to compliment your offense, such as a competent run game––at 121st nationally in rushing EPA, MSU does not have that. Wisconsin’s strong defensive performance against Northwestern could probably be completely ignored if this was a standard Michigan State outfit, but this is not a standard Michigan State outfit. They’re hardly better than the Wildcats at moving the ball. They’re perhaps comparable, through rose-tinted glasses, to Wazzu––the Badgers held them to 5.1 YPP and 17 points.

Bottom Line: The Michigan State fans are probably only attending this game if they can bring flaming upholstery into the stadium to fling at their QB and secondary. If Wisconsin takes an early lead, it should be lights out for the Spartans until Noah Kim enters in the 4th quarter to lead another totally pointless drive that just incenses the fan base further. I’m buying a culture shift now that Jim Leonhard is head coach, too.

What should you bet? Wisconsin (-7.5).

What if you’re feeling spicy? Wisconsin (-13.5) for +150.

Maryland (-11) at Indiana [Total: 61.5]

When the Terrapins have the ball: I know I just bashed Payton Thorne for not throwing the ball downfield, but I’m about to praise Taulia Tagovailoa for having an even lower average target depth. Thorne’s ADOT is 8.3. Taulia’s? Only 7.2. So why the praise? Well, because when Taulia throws it downfield, it actually works out for his team. On throws 10+ yards downfield, Taulia is 35/64 (55%) for 852 yards (13.3 YPA) with 6 TDs and 5 INTs. Payton is 19/53 (36%) for 420 yards (7.9 YPA) with 8 TDs and 6 INTs. And what do we know about the Hoosier defense, even if the Wolverines didn’t fully take advantage of it last week? They can’t cover anybody deep. Meanwhile, Maryland has a bevy of options at WR who can stretch the field. What’s more, Taulia has only taken 8 sacks on the season, and Indiana has only recorded 11 sacks in the 5 games that weren’t against the Idaho Vandals. The Hoosiers might once again be without starting CB Jaylin Williams, who injured his shoulder during the Nebraska game a few weeks back. Taulia should have plenty of time to look downfield (according to PFF, Indiana is last in the Big Ten in pass rush) and pick apart this struggling secondary (according to PFF, Indiana is 12th in the Big Ten in coverage, only ahead of MSU and NW). Am I concerned that the Hoosiers run defense appears to be legit even when star LB Cam Jones is sidelined with an injury? I mean… somewhat? After holding Cincinnati to 2.0 YPC (sacks removed) and Nebraska to 2.6 YPC (sacks removed), they bottled up Michigan pretty good––when you remove the Corum 50 yard run and the kneel downs, the Wolverines only acquired 3.3 YPC. But that’s not who Maryland is: they throw the ball nearly 60% of the time. (Michigan throws it just 43.8% of the time.) I don’t see this as being much of a slog, if any, for the Terrapins.

When the Hoosiers have the ball: Here’s a completely random list of things––that I’m pulling out of my butt at 10:15 PM on a Wednesday so I can finish this diary before I go to bed––that I find more frightening than the Indiana offense: my cat having the zoomies at 9:30 at night and attacking my flokati rug; the teddy bear Beanie Baby that’s sitting on my bookshelf that I bought 5 years ago with one of my best friends; opening my fridge between the 1st and 2nd quarter of last week’s game against Indiana to find that I only had 9 more beers in there to help me get through the rest of the game. Playing Michigan’s defense did not help Indiana’s stats in the slightest. Quarterback Connor Bazelak (that has a nice rhyme to it) is down to 5.4 YPA and is still chucking the ball 49 times a game. If you remove the Idaho game, running back Shaun Shivers (I wish it was pronounced like the verb shivers and not SHY-vers) averages 3.2 yards on 66 carries this year––that number is a vomit-inducing 2.5 if you remove a 47 yard carry against Cincinnati. Their two best wide receivers, Cam Camper and DJ Matthews Jr., didn’t play against Michigan, and I can’t find anything online about them being good to go against Maryland. Four of the five members of the offensive line grade below 58.0 on PFF, and two of those are below 47.0 (60.0 is average, apparently). All Maryland’s defense has to do is be competent, and 28th in EPA/play seems competent-plus to me. They should be hungry to punch someone in the mouth after the Boilermakers put up 31 on them last week.

Bottom Line: This is a good matchup for the Terrapins on offense since Indiana can’t cover, and it’s a good matchup for the Terrapins on defense since Indiana can’t do anything on that side of the ball. Unless another total ref-job happens, it’s hard to see this going any other way.

What should you bet? Maryland (-11)

What if you’re feeling spicy? Parlay that with Under 61.5.

Nebraska at Purdue (-13) [Total: 58.5]

When the Cornhuskers have the ball: It’s that time of week again when we check on the only three Cornhuskers who have any talent on offense: QB Casey Thompson, RB Anthony Grant, and WR Trey Palmer. Against the pat-on-the-back-for-trying-hard Rutgers defense, Thompson completed two-thirds of his passes for 6.4 YPA with 2 TDs and 2 INTs––not great. Anthony Grant ran the ball 19 times for 47 yards (2.5 YPC) with a long of 7––really bad. And Trey Palmer had 4 catches on 7 targets for 64 yards and a 4th quarter, game-winning TD catch––okay. As a team, they had 304 yards on 66 plays, which is 4.6 YPP––gross. I can’t quite put my finger on what’s wrong with this offense, considering they’re 29th in line yards according to FO (maybe opponent caveats apply, as they played NW, North Dakota, and GA Southern?) but 10th in run blocking and 13th in pass blocking according to PFF. Meanwhile, the fancy stats see Purdue as the toughest defense the Huskers will have faced this year (slightly better than Rutgers per SP+ and more-than-marginally better than Rutgers per FEI). In back-to-back road games, the Boilermakers have guided Minnesota (sans Mo Ibrahim) to 10 points, 5.2 YPP, and 3 turnovers, and Maryland (were they healthy?) to 29 points, 6.1 YPP, and 1 turnover. Both those teams are Top 15 in offensive expected points added, whereas Nebraska is 66th. Now, this defense gets what should be a raucous home crowd for a night game. I like their chances of holding the Huskers to 17 points or less.

When the Boilermakers have the ball: Purdue’s season on offense kind of reminds me of my sexual experiences as a teenager: I got really excited, really quickly, and then found myself kind of disappointed for a while after I peaked. (My most sincere apologies to anyone who’s stuck with me for the past 5,000 words and had to read that sentence.) Aidan O’Connell’s game log has slowly gone from “Second day draft pick?” to “Oh, it’s still just Aidan O’Connell.” The running game has gone from “Maybe we got something here!” to “Well, that was nice for a bit.” Chuck Sizzle’s Biletnikoff dreams have gone from solar-flare hot to just global-warming warm. That being said, the Boilermakers still put up 31 on PSU, 29 on Syracuse, and 29 on Maryland. All those defenses grade out better per all the fancy stats than Nebraska’s defense does. The matchup I’m most excited for is Purdue TE Payne Durham (ah! what a name!) going up against Nebraska’s linebackers. Durham couldn’t block if his most beloved aunt was playing QB, but the dude has proven he can be a receiving threat with 7 catches, 109 yards and a TD against Maryland, as well as 9 catches, 83 yards and two TDs against Syracuse. If Nebraska’s smart they’ll put LB Luke Reimer on him, who has a terrific 80.7 coverage grade per PFF. If they’re not smart, LB Nick Henrick will end up on him, who has a terrifying 49.3 coverage grade per PFF. I’ll be curious to see if anyone can stop Chuck Sizzle, too, seeing as Nebraska’s best coverage corner is Quinton Newsome, and he’s struggled against teams not named Northwestern and Georgia Southern. I’d be surprised if Purdue didn’t put up 29 points again.

Bottom Line: Let’s see. If Nebraska scores 17 (at most) and Purdue scores 29 (at least), that’s a 12 point difference. And that’s my lowest possible spread outcome. I think, logically, that means that I have to bet on the Boilermakers. Or another under.

What should you bet? Purdue (-13) or Under 58.5.

What if you’re feeling spicy? Parlay the above.

The Conclusion

Once again, I appreciate anyone who made it this far!

Happy betting and Go Blue!