Worst: Pithy

I'll write more below, but if you want a TL;DR for this diary is "I think it was dumb for people to play football this fall, it's proven to be a bad idea on any number of levels, and so it's not worth getting too worked up about it anymore." Michigan's likely to win anywhere between 0 and 3 more games this season, most if not all of the coaching staff will be turned over, and this place will be a well of ironic detachment and cynicism that has become the hallmark of Michigan football, a program and fanbase that wished we never left the Willennium and believes the dilapidated, fractured foundation of this pretty-good-if-never-consistently-elite program can be fixed with a new coach and a quick visit from Chip and Joanna. Michigan isn't a good football team; it's worse than it should be due to some key players being out for the year/injured but it's not THAT much worse than was reasonably expected coming into the year. It feels like most of the outrage this year stems from that MSU loss, which was bad and can't really be explained beyond throws hands up. But on paper these last two weeks really shouldn't be that surprising, and so while my optimism for "a competitive game" was decidedly unfounded, I'm not sure if my outlook for the year dramatically shifted after this game.

Worst: Momentum

One of the benefits of being a parent (beyond the obvious love of your children, the sense you're trying to leave a better world for them, and the nice tax breaks) is that you now have an excuse to revisit TV shows, movies, and other pieces of entertainment that you had to at least make up a half-ass excuse for beforehand. For example, I bought the complete Animaniacs series on DVD years before I even contemplated having to explain to my kids who Charlie Sheen or Ben Vereen are, but they were a convenient excuse for my indulgence masquerading as parental foresight. And so it should come as no surprise that I quickly jumped on Disney+, a treasure-trove of 80's and 90's cartoons that I could binge on during my various commutes in the Before Times. In particular, I was intrigued to go back and rewatch "X-Men: The Animated Series", a significant step forward in the comic book-to-mainstream evolution that has fundamentally altered popular culture over the past couple of decades as well as a show that featured the third-best opening theme of any animated comic after Batman and the show's Japanese intro.

Now, I've never been a huge comic book reader, neither now nor when I was younger. At various times I tried to catch up, biking to the local comic book store in town to peruse the anthologies before realizing that there were so many versions of these characters, in so many multiverses and realities held together by precious few rules, that it became overwhelming for a novice to jump into. So my main introduction to these comics was through these animated series, where storylines I later learned were major canonical events played out in 22-minute increments every Saturday morning. There you saw favorites like Wolverine, Cyclops, Gambit, Rogue, Professor X, and Storm battle both arch villains like Magneto and Apocalypse as well as more run-of-the-mill baddies like Sentinels. And of this rolling cast of replacement-level antagonists, the one that stood out to me most was Juggernaut.

Now, Juggernaut was "unique" in the X-Men universe because he wasn't a mutant like the other key characters, including his half-brother Charles "Professor X"/"Wheels" Xavier. No, Cain Marko (Juggernaut's human name) got his powers from an ancient, magical ruby he found in a hidden temple, and yes typing this all out from memory makes me both smile a bit and question what useful information got pushed out of my brain to make room for it. It turned him from your run-of-the-mill red-headed step-child (because comic books are anything but un-subtle) into a super-jacked ginger, a forebearer to modern-day Carrot Top, if you will. Anyway, this ancient artifact imbibed Cain with a host of special abilities you've come to expect from comic book characters (super strength, speed, etc.), but also a power that Wikipedia describes as "virtually unstoppable momentum", which in the show basically meant that once Juggernaut got moving nothing could stop him (well, until the story required it).

This power never made a ton of sense to me because it played fast-and-loose with physics beyond even what most people concede is part of the "deal" with these characters. Like, there is some tenuous physical/biological connections between, say, Wolverine or Deadpool's healing factor, the various Iron Man/technological superpowers, or Captain America's "peak human potential" state, even though most are pretty silly (looking at you, anyone who can fly). But "unstoppable momentum" feels a step beyond that level of ridiculousness, this idea that if any part of his body started moving forward or backwards there would be no way to stop him. It felt like the writers were looking for some additional flourish to add onto this 9-foot muscled goof beyond "really strong" and just settled on this power because it was available. Then the stories just turned on when he'd start and stop moving, wherein this guy who you couldn't stop or slow down would...stop moving long enough for someone to hit him, pull off his helmet, whatever in order to progress the plot. It made no sense and ultimately made him a punchline of sorts, culminating in one of the earliest dumb internet memes that inexplicably became an infamous scene in a regrettable movie.

I'm generally not a big believer in the "feelingsball" aspects of sports, but one tenet I have come to recognize as real is the idea of momentum, of a series of positive or negative events feeding and building off each other. A couple of positive plays can turn a moribund offense into a quick-strike unit and put the defense on its heels; conversely, a bad pass, a dropped ball, or a sack can cut the legs out from underneath a squad seconds after stepping onto the field. In Michigan's case, the most obvious example is that they have never trailed in every game this year, with the added bonus that they've never been the first team to score. In fact, Michigan has given up a TD in the first or second drive every game this year. This game was a perfect microcosm of this phenomenon, as:

• Michigan gets a stop on 6-play, 18-yard Wisconsin drive.
• Joe Milton throws a tough pass into traffic that ricochets off Eubanks's chest/hands and gets picked off.
• Wisconsin scores a TD shortly thereafter.
• After two middling runs Milton throws another pick, this one directly to a Wisconsin linebacker.
• Wisconsin scores shortly thereafter.

 

At this point the game is basically 6 minutes old and it's over; Michigan showed some small signs of life here and there but Wisconsin's defense was flying around, knowing Michigan's already-limited offense was now in perpetual catch-up mode, while the Wolverine defense struggled to contain the various Wisconsin sweeps to go along with a bruising interior rushing attack. Just like last weekend against Indiana, Michigan let the opposition get going and then could do little to slow them down. And the funny thing was that areas where people expected awful breakdowns (the cornerbacks, penalties, etc.) held up decently enough; I thought Gray and Green looked pretty solid out there and both PIs against them (one was was of offsetting penalties) looked debatable, as Danny Davis headlocked both Gray and Green as they ran with him down the field. Michigan didn't jump offsides once, though they did extend two drives via penalties - the Hawkins personal foul on 3rd down was bad because it was unnecessary to hit a guy short of the sticks out of bounds, but the roughing the punter penalty was an aggressive move that nearly paid off and is the type of penalty I'm less bothered by when you're down 35-11 and could possibly give your offense a short field. But behind a makeshift line Michigan couldn't do anything on the ground (the oft-cited 49-to-47 rushing Rutger) and Milton continued his struggles throwing the ball with accuracy downfield. The one time Michigan got inside the Wisconsin red zone they ran a QB run out of the shotgun after Wisconsin took a TO to clearly stop it, and never again really threatened with Milton leading the offense. In the end, Cade McNamara saw time at QB and led Michigan on their only scoring drive, punctuated by a couple of nice throws that inevitably led to the usual chatter about a quarterback controversy that absolutely doesn't exist.

Here’s the thing, this team with energy and confidence I don’t think is that bad. Wisconsin I’m sure is relaxing and has some injuries, but this team still has talent. While part of it is having film on them now, this isn’t the same confident team from Minnesota

— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) November 15, 2020

Michigan isn't good enough to overcome these missteps against good teams; I'm not sure they can overcome missteps against anyone not named Minnesota on their schedule. But they are more talented and "better" than they look right now, only they clearly lack much confidence in what they are doing and can feel the walls caving in the minute something doesn't go their way. That makes sense - it's a young team with a lot of veterans out with injury, but even before that they were struggling in ways that didn't exist against Minnesota. It's a bit like last year where Michigan couldn't help itself turning the ball over early on, where each bad play threw a further wrench into the offensive flow and sapped whatever consistency they were trying to generate. This year's team isn't close to last year's in terms of talent, and the coaching issues on both sides of the ball (especially the defense, which looks demonstrably worse at most spots) have further exacerbated those deficiencies, but they also have had few breaks go their way, shifts in momentum to give them a chance to breath and play with some confidence. I'm not sure that's in the cards this year, though, and I worry that even if they do the season is already lost enough to matter.

Worst: Expectations

Off the bat I want to make it clear that I hold no ill will toward Joe Milton; I think he's performed admirably as a starting QB and should be a solid QB in the coming years. He's absolutely got the talent and skill to be a good player, and it's a testament to his abilities that he earned the coaches' confidence as a first-year signal caller. But I said before the season that people assuming Shea Patterson was the floor for QB play Michigan were being exceedingly optimistic about the leap Milton had made from last year, and through 4 games I think that's largely borne out. Part of that struggle isn't his fault, as the running game has practically disappeared since both Mayfield and Hayes were out of the lineup. Still, the issues we saw even during the early-season successes (a tendency to lock onto receivers, to throw the ball with, at most, two speeds, issues seeing the field and failing to give up on a play when necessary) have manifested themselves these past couple of weeks.

I'm not going to get too deep into the argument about the first pick, as it appears to ride on what each person's definitions of "catchable" and "in coverage" are. Like I said above, it felt like an in-advisable throw in a situation where just throwing it out of bounds would have been better. But the second pick felt a lot like his first interception last weekend, where he clearly didn't see the Wisconsin linebacker and then threw a flat pass right to him. He's a young QB and these types of games are to be expected against a good Wisconsin defense, but he was also a QB who struggled with his accuracy in HS and still seems to rely too much on his arm strength to make up for some mechanical and judgment issues; he has an NFL arm and at times feels like he's seeking out opportunities to throw into NFL windows. And as tends to be the case with guys like Milton, he seems to also struggle modulating his throws depending on the distance; multiple announcers have commented in recent games that you can tell the ball is coming out hard even if it makes the receiver's job harder. When he does try to alter the velocity, it feels like he's trying to "guide" the ball instead of throwing it, consciously lofting passes that tend to arrive late or off the mark. Again, all fixable issues but absolutely lingering ones that he got away with against Minnesota and MSU because those defenses weren't quite good enough to make him pay.

As for the QB running game, it's hard to tell how much of it those struggles are due to the playcalling vs. the personnel dealing with a jumbled line lacking much cohesion and experience. I'd have to go back but it felt like there were a couple of read options in this game that weren't executed as expected. In fact, one of Michigan's 2(!) rushing first downs in this game felt like a broken play where Corum expected Milton to handoff on an exchange and Milton pulled back and basically bounced off of him for 5 yards. It's hard to tell but I can't shake the feeling that the offense is purposely stripped down at this point, a concession to injuries on the offensive line and Milton still figuring out the offense. It "working" against Minnesota was probably more an indictment against Minnesota than an endorsement of UM's preparedness and acuity, and these last 3 weeks have highlighted these unsurprising deficiencies. But all offseason it felt like people were studying a handful of plays in blowouts and extrapolating from there, again assuming that the depth chart from the previous year was a lie and that there was some unearthed diamond just waiting for its chance to be seen.

I do think the offense will make strides in the coming weeks, if for no other reason than that they won't be playing some of the better defenses in the league. Milton should remain the QB; he's likely got a better overall grasp of the offense and has some of his struggles should subside with more reps. He's likely the starter next year anyway, so it would behoove the team to accept their lumps this year and hope he can build on the growth we've seen. If Hayes and/or Mayfield return we should see players return to their natural spots on the line, and that cohesion should help running the ball. Even if both remain out, you'll still likely seem some improvements running the ball just because of the talent in the backfield. Still, this is an inexperienced offense with a ton of players getting their first significant reps, and so I wouldn't be surprised if we still saw some wild swings in the future.

Best: Coverage

I thought both Vincent Gray and Gemon Green did well in coverage against Wisconsin. They weren't called on too often as the Badgers picked up 341 yards on the ground, but Mertz was forced to make throws into tight windows and more often than not one of them got a hand on the ball. Gray, in particular, was credited with 2 PBUs and made quick tackles even on balls that were completed. Neither Gray nor Green are #1 CBs, but after the MSU game it's nice seeing Gray bounce back a bit and look a bit more like the solid corner he was last year.

Worst: No Man's Land

While the secondary played decently and the defensive line was rejiggered with both Paye and Hutchinson out, it felt like the linebackers were again consistently out of position and failed to maintain the edges against a Wisconsin team that just kept attacking the outside gaps of the defense with great success. Early on the Badgers struggled somewhat to generate consistent gains from their backs but Danny Davis was able to pick up first downs on the same jet sweeps seemingly every time he touched the ball. For the game he ran the ball 7 times for 65 yards, and that consistent gouging if the defense tended to come from linebackers failing to stick with him as he moved across the formation. Now, credit to Wisconsin for recognizing that without Hutchinson and Paye Michigan wouldn't be able to generate consistent edge pressure and the second level would try to compensate, but at the same time even when they were in the right spot tackles were missed. I'm honestly not sure what happened to what was expected to be a strength of the defense coming into the year, but other than Minnesota it feels like Barrett, McGrone, Ross, etc. have really struggled to play at the level we saw last year.

Meh: Coaching Carousel

I pointed this out last week but Michigan entered the season with the third-fewest returning starters in the league, and that assumed guys like Collins and Thomas would be playing. Then over the intervening weeks Michigan has lost 4 other starters, crippling their defensive line and throwing their offensive line into disarray. Ronnie Bell and Nick Eubanks are the only pass catching-types with any experience returning, and the offensive line turned over 4 of 5 starters. The defense had more returning players but still had to replace it's top 2 corners, long-time Viper, and a couple of coaches. Before the injuries I assumed Michigan would finish around 5-3 or 6-2 depending on how far along Milton was offensively; I (wrongly) assumed the defense would still be top-20-ish at least and figured the run game would be more potent than it has been. But Michigan lost the second most players last year to the NFL draft, tied with OSU at 10 and only behind LSU with 14. LSU has fumbled their way through this season thus far, while OSU (sigh) looks as deadly as ever. If that reality perturbs you then I'd say just skip to the end because I doubt you'll agree with anything else I'm going to say.

Michigan isn't good enough to "reload" from that type of attrition; I'm honestly not sure they've been in a position like that for a long time. During the broadcast there was some graphic that showed Michigan had 28 All Americans basically during the Carr era and have had 11 since 2008. Similarly, Michigan hasn't had a skill position player taken in the first round since Braylon Edwards, and has had two non-Denard 1,000 rushing seasons from anyone since Mike Hart was on the roster. The issues with Michigan as a team go beyond Jim Harbaugh, and point more toward systemic shifts in college football. I'm not in the mood to rehash it all, but there was an inflection point in football, seemingly around the mid-2000s, where certain teams took that next step forward in terms of offensive and defensive schemes, recruiting, etc. and you either jumped on then or you didn't. Since 2006, a total of 7 teams have won the national title, and since 2000 there have been 4 and that's unlikely to change this year. There's a tier of elite teams in this country (Alabama, Clemson, OSU) and then a rotating spot for some other squad like Georgia, LSU, Florida, ND, etc. who can catch lightning in a bottle and make a run if things break right for them. Michigan, I guess, might also be able to break into that lead pack once in a decade, but they are decidedly behind that top group and I just don't see a Matt Campbell- or Luke Fickell-sized gap being the only thing standing in Michigan's way.

I do feel like there needs to be major changes on the defensive end, not so much because Don Brown has forgotten how to coach as much as that side has already gone through a number of transitions with guys like Partridge and Campanile leaving in the offseason, Bob Shoop apparently not coaching in person, and underwhelming results from guys like Nua. So if there's a young defensive coordinator out there it would behoove Michigan to go after him and give it a go. As for the offense, despite numerous complaints I feel like Harbaugh has turned over a fair bit of the playcalling to Gattis and we've seen how effective the offense can be in fits and spurts. Michigan lining up in the shotgun on 4th-and-goalline this game was definitely not something Harbaugh would have called but likely was due to the fact Michigan hadn't practiced under center snaps this season, a decidedly Josh Gattis preference.

As for Jim Harbaugh, I just don't see who else out there is going to make the situation appreciably better. If people believe he's lost the will to coach then fire him; it doesn't appear to me that he has. He looks like a coach trying to develop a young team that has lost a fair bit of confidence and continuity. And I guess that's my biggest fear with yet another coaching change - there's a major transition cost in those types of moves and it would be Michigan's 4th since 2007. Those costs made sense when it was from Brady Hoke to Jim Harbaugh; I'm less sold of it's merits when we're talking about pulling a solid coach from the Big 12 or the AAC. That doesn't mean Harbaugh gets a contract for life, only that there isn't some quick fix out there and change for its own sake, pending a series of mass player attrition or clear revolt from the team, isn't always for the best.

Quick Hits

• I thought Michigan got robbed on an uncalled DPI early on in the game when Milton throw a ball along the sideline to All and the Wisconsin defender basically held his arm and chest plate the entire way down the field. Michigan has deserved a fair bit of the PIs that have gone against them but it does feel like they haven't gotten the same benefit of the doubt.
• Along those same lines, the first almost-fumble by Davis this year could have easily been upheld upon review. The notion of a "football move" is amorphous by nature, but I've seen enough college and pro games treat that as a play that I was a bit surprised the play was overturned. The second such recovery was clearly a dropped ball. Michigan has struggled to generate many turnovers this year, but it also feels like they've been on the wrong end of luck some times as well.
• I saw some people treat Harbaugh's FG attempt down 28-0 as equivalent to James Franklin kicking a FG down 28-0 in 2016. While I get the sentiment, Penn State was 4th-and-goal at the 2 when they kicked; Michigan was 4th-and-10 from their own 28. Michigan went for it at the Wisconsin goalline at the end of the half, and I see the value in at least getting points in a game coming out of the half and your team feeling a bit lost.
• There have been 53 games cancelled thus far this season due to COVID-19 out of a total of 406 scheduled games. That works out to about 13%. The odds in Russian Roulette are 1/6, or 16%. Good times.

Next Week: Rutgers

I have no idea. Rutgers handily beat MSU to start the year; since then they've lost to Indiana and OSU (totally understandable) and Illinois (less so), the latter despite putting up 422 yards of total offense because they gave up 445 yards. This feels like a game Michigan should be able to win, perhaps even comfortably, but I'm certainly not going to put money on it. And at the rate COVID-19 is going, I'm not optimistic Michigan will be playing many more games this year so any win would be nice.