Best:  Woken Up

To no one’s surprise Michigan’s non-conference schedule was as inconsequential as possible.  Against severely overmatched opponents, the Wolverines played with their food a bit but ultimately wound up beating the #89 (UNLV), #101 (ECU), and #126 (BGSU) teams per SP+ by a combined score of 96-16, and basically all of that 16 came against the 3rd/4th string defense.  The offense has been a bit janky at times and they aren’t blitzing teams like they did last season, especially on the ground.  Case in point last year UM was 5th in the country with 23 plays 40 yards or longer from the line of scrimmage, with 10 of those being on the ground.  This year?  They’re 84th with only 3 plays longer than 40 yards and only 1 (tied with MSU) rushing.  Some of that is just the nature of how teams are playing UM; they are stacking the box and daring them to throw the ball and UM has obliged with efficiency (#13 in offense per SP+, 9th to FEI) in the passing attack on rushing the ball, especially with Corum shifting into more of a lead role versus the shared carries he had with Edwards early on.  And defensively they’ve been great despite losing a number of starter and heavy rotation players to nagging injuries in the first 3rd of the year.  But  that level of dominance was always expected out of this club given both their talent and the dearth of said talent on their opponents’ rosters.  It’s mostly felt like sleepwalking through another series of games where the biggest drama was who wasn’t on the sideline and how NPCs in sports felt about said recognition, and seeing how a bunch of future HCs currently on staff handled the clipboard for a while.

But Rutgers is a different beast than the first 3 opponents, and while not at the level of Michigan, PSU, or OSU they absolutely have improved under Schiano to occupy that second tier of conference teams, currently inhabited by teams like Maryland, Iowa, and Wisconsin.  They have a solid defense that has playmakers at all three levels, and an offense that at least has some life in it thanks to a mobile QB with some arm talent and a decent running game.  Is it a world beater?  Absolutely not, but they were 3-0 coming into this game after beating 2 P5 teams (no need to look up who they are) plus Temple by an average score of 32-10.  That’s…pretty good, and if you look at their schedule you see a pretty easy path to 6-7 wins provided they stay healthy.  So this was going to be a step up for Michigan in terms of competition, and honestly looking at the next couple of teams in the schedule maybe the best until Penn State (!) unless you believe that boat in Minnesota is going to row itself back off the rocks they’ve gotten stuck on. 

And early on Rutgers came out firing, scoring on an early breakdown and then booting Michigan off the field on their first possession.  Rutgers was running the ball effectively with Wimsatt and Monangai and Michigan seemed flat-footed especially on the read option.  But after a holding penalty negated a big first-down run and Rutgers would forced to punt, Michigan got back to work and quickly scored on some nice passing plays before Corum took it in from the 3.  Rutgers responded with another good drive where they moved the ball on the ground effectively and Wimsatt hit open receivers, but that drive stalled out with a long FG attempt that they missed and Michigan took over in good field position.  The Wolverines marched down the field again and had a 37-yard FG attempt lined up before a penalty pushed it back and Turner missed the makeup.  But the tenor of the game had changed at that point, as Michigan was clearly engaged after sleepwalking a bit through the first quarter and then booted Rutgers off the first on successive 3-and-out drives while scoring a TD of their own.  That carried over to the second half, where Rutgers mounted basically one meaningful drive (that ended in a pick six) while UM scored on their first 2 offensive drives to put the game out of reach.  Rutgers sort of farted their way between the 20s but never threatened much after that, and in the decisive 2nd and 3rd quarters picked up a total of 64 yards of total offense. 

While the score wasn’t as pronounced as last season’s demolition it honestly felt as complete, as Michigan basically shut the door on Rutgers after that first drive and didn’t get a ton of turnovers or other mistakes by Rutgers to goose the score.  We’ll see how Michigan handles their first road test next weekend in Lincoln but this was a nice sign that the team was switching out of the “preseason” mode against a good opponent.

Worst:  Bed Head Rules

Of all the changes that have come about due to the proliferation of outlets carrying college football games (and there’s a TON of them), perhaps the most surprising has been the massive increase in the number of “rules analysts” that get trotted out every time the referees go to a replay to determine the correct call.  For a long time it felt like it was Gene Steratore for college and Mike Pereira for the NFL and then various disembodied voices, but over the past couple of years I’ve noticed a bunch of random guys intoning (oftentimes incorrect) analysis of the play under dispute while a chyron beneath them claims we should take them seriously because they’re supposed experts on the rules.  But much like how there are far fewer good referees than their games to oversee, it feels like there are far fewer competent analysts in games than available talking heads.  Case in point, the guy manning the rulebook for this game was named Steve Strimling and he had the appearance and affect of a guy who woke up late for an interview, threw a suit and raced to the office only to now realize he has no idea what they company even does.

He popped up a couple of times and in each instance it felt like he was trying to speed-read a dense block of text just outside of his peripheral vision.  By the end of the game I felt bad for him.

But his fumbling with the rulebook mirrored that of the referees in this game, who wound up making some decisions that in a more competitive game would have been upsetting.  The screenshot above stemmed from a Colston Loveland 3rd-down conversion that was deemed short by a long yard.  We can quibble about whether or not the ball was past the line when crossed the sideline but it is clear he was quite close to the line either way, not the yard-ish spot the refs gave.  Apparently it is beyond most referees’ constitutions to admit any mistake, but at the very least they should have spotted that ball far closer to the line than it was.  Of course Michigan converted but still a bad decision by the referees.  And what made it subsequently even more inexplicable was the referees wound up moving the ball back another solid half-yard on a 3rd-and-1 conversion attempt by Edwards where even if you thought he was short (he sure seemed to be over the line) the ball was absolutely not at the same position as his knee when he fell forward into the line.  It felt profoundly arbitrary and even a bit intentional, as if the referee didn’t trust his eyes as long as Michigan’s offense was involved.  And as a contrast, the referees in the ND-OSU game wound up reversing a 4th-down conversion on a far closer play early in that one after, AFAICT, Ryan Day stamped his feet and gesticulated wildly at a spot he thought Hartman’s foot left the field.  Again, it was close but referees arbitrarily caring about centimeters here or there  is crazy to me.  Either put sensors in the ball that allow referees to know the exact position of the ball when it leaves the field or get some better camera angles because right now we’re letting old men squint at 10-inch 720p screens and try to determine the position of a football and they’re doing a poor job of it.

Similarly, the referee in this game seemingly got trigger-happy with a delay-of-game on Michigan’s first FG attempt, as the on-screen clock was 1 when the ball was hiked and Turner was in his kicking motion when it registered 0.  I recognize that the counter on the screen isn’t always accurate but it seems unlikely it was that far off, to say nothing of the fact that referees usually give teams a beat or two when the clock hits 0 before calling a delay.  That dubious call actually wound up costing Michigan 3 points in what was at the time a tied game.  And the final bit of refereeing malpractice was the seemingly random application of “ball touches the ground during a catch but you had some level of control” rule for a number of Rutgers’ biggest completions on the day.  This one jumped out to me because I’ve seen a number of games where a ball that sort of rolls with you as you land out of bounds isn’t considered caught, but there were a couple of other catches by Rutgers that were questionable in terms of the amorphous reading of the rulebook we’re told exists.  Again, none of these calls wound up affecting the outcome of this game in a meaningful way but it remains sort of amazing that we’re 100+ years into this sport and refs still make so consistently inconsistent.

Best:  All American Mike Sainristil

Another game, another fantastic performance by Mike Sainristil defensively.  The highlight was obviously the pick-six on a 4th-down screen by Rutgers that seemingly the entire defense sniffed out from the jump, but Sainristil squatting Junior Colson, shedding them, then racing back for the TD was a highlight play for a guy who has made a couple in his tenure as Michigan’s do-it-all defensive back.  He currently leads the team in interceptions, is tied for 3rd in TFLs, is tied for first in QB hurries, and has been a steadying influence on a backfield that has missed a ton of key contributors due to injury.  It’s been discussed frequently that he was being recruited by teams like Virginia Tech to play defensive back or receiver with an eye on the slot , and that’s a common bucket you throw guys into who are fast but not that tall.  But far too often players who are “athletes” never really find a spot; Dennis Norfleet is probably the most recent example of a guy who never quite hit the way you hoped.  But Sainristil went from competent-but-unremarkable slot receiver in 2021 to all B1G honorable mention last year as a defensive back and and became a leader both on the field and off.  Yes, it’s unlikely he’ll be recognized nationally for his play this year but he’s playing like one of the best defenders in the country and at this point it feels almost a given he’ll be drafted by the NFL both because of his skill but also his high-level football IQ.  I hope people enjoy having this type of player at Michigan because they decidedly do not come around every year, and he’s played a huge steadying role for a unit that has been dealing with depth and position issues early on this season.

Best:  Corum’s Gears &
Worst:  Edwards Stuck in Neutral

Blake Corum looked fully back from last year’s injury, as he picked up 2 TDs including one on a vintage post-contact grind as well as some nice blitz pickups.  He’s probably not going to put up the numbers of last year because the games are shorter (Michigan only ran 60-ish plays on the day) and they’re clearly trying to load manage him a bit, but he remains a singular talent in his ability to both fight through contact as well as beat guys in the open field.  On the other side, unfortunately, Donovan Edwards remains stuck in the muck.  He had 13 yards on 6 carries, and while he added 2 catches for 41 yards his overall production remains stagnant (109 yards on 33 carries and 100 yards on 11 catches with no TDs) as he continues to struggle with finding the right rushing lanes and pushing through contact.  The dubious 3rd-down spotting I mentioned above wasn’t helped by Edwards hitting the pile and not driving through it, and he missed a big cutback lane on an outside run that probably would have picked up 10-ish yards instead of the 2 he got running outside.  He just feels like he’s trying to hit a home run every time he has the ball and that’s not always going to happen, and he needs to take a page from Corum in that department.  That pressing has limited his effectiveness and robbed him of his greatest skill, which is patience followed by an insane burst through the opening.  Some of this is still likely rust, as it doesn’t sound like the backs took much contact in the offseason.  But for this offense to sing Edwards needs to be a real dual threat and right now he isn’t quite there.

Best:  Tough Catches

A big reason last year’s game was competitive at halftime was because Michigan’s receives simply didn’t make McCarthy’s life easy on catchable balls.  While I think some of that was just due to McCarthy going through some growing pains as a first-time QB (it was in the middle of a stretch where McCarthy completed about 50% of his passes for a month), he was absolutely let down on a couple of throws that could have bailed him out.  By comparison, this game featured some tough catches made by his receivers to keep drives.  The highlight was the Semaj Morgan pulling in the eventual game-winning TD while being interfered with, and later on Loveland climbed the ladder to bring in a tough throw between defenders that led to another score.  And beyond those tough receptions, Michigan’s passing offense broke out some nifty plays like the an Edwards screen and a unique flea flicker to Loveland that further stretched an aggressive Rutgers front.  It felt unlike last year where Michigan took it almost as an offense if the opposition sold out to stop the run and spent downs imposing their will 2 yards at a time.  Instead, they knew the Scarlet Knights couldn’t match up with Michigan’s receivers and simply exploited those deficiencies, which then opened up running lanes later on.  It definitely felt like a more coherent offensive philosophy than last year’s matchup, and when combined with better receiver play the offense hummed along without really needing to rely on Rutgers just messing up.

Best:  Coaching Continuity

It’s probably more a vibes observation than reality given the fact Harbaugh was involved in every aspect of the past 3 games save for prowling the sideline on gameday, but it felt like the entire team was a bit more settled than with the revolving door of temporary head coaches.  On offense the running game again felt dialed in, and the overall offensive playcalling and flow was more dynamic and unpredictable (for example, McCarthy actually keeping on some of these runs absolutely caught Rutgers off guard and led to some huge pickups) than last weekend when it felt, at times, a bit rougher.  Some of that likely had to do with opponent quality and focus, but when a guy like Moore or Minter also take on the duties of head coach, everyone below them gets bumped up a level of responsibility and that can put a strain on the whole enterprise.  This felt like the first game for everyone in their expected spot, and that familiarity should only improve further in the coming weeks.  Harbaugh’s suspension remains a stupid power display by the NCAA, but hopefully this self-imposed exile will sake their blood lust and they can move on to ignoring far worse offenses elsewhere.

Meh:  Defensive Scheming

In parts of this game I really didn’t get Michigan’s coverage scheme; they left Rutgers receivers with 7-8 yards of cushion on first and second down repeatedly in this game and, to Wimsatt’s credit, he got them the ball quickly.  I know some of it likely had to do with concerns about Wimsatt running the ball but Michigan’s corners are certainly capable of holding up against the skill players of Rutgers and the parts of the game that were annoying tended to coincide with this relaxed coverage bubble.  Wimsatt is improving as a QB (the Sainristil pick in this game was his first of the year and honestly wasn’t really on a bad throw as much as a bad play design) but he’s still more of an athlete than a refined QB and so I would have liked to see more aggressiveness out of the secondary.  This especially so because Will Johnson was back as CB1 and Rutgers clearly tried to stay away from him.  Wallace wound up picking up a somewhat dubious DPI (that ball was a couple yards behind the receiver and Wallace ran into him because he was breaking on the bad throw while the receiver was caught flat-footed), but other than the Sainristil/Moore debacle on the opening TD they largely limited downfield completions to spectacular “catches” by the Rutgers receivers.  Still, I just didn’t like some of the coverage patterns and I hope they don’t continue against the better passing attacks they’ll see this year.

Best:  This League Is Weird

I’ll save the full recap but this weekend was so weird in determining how good the teams in this league are.  PSU did a number on Iowa, and while that happens and Iowa’s offense is terrible they did show some life and competence that makes me think that game could be for the conference crown.  OSU needed a ton of dumb things to go right to barely beat Notre Dame, and showed a ton of weaknesses on the ground (both offensively and defensively) that no amount of Ryan Day tough-talk will fix. Minnesota blew a 21-point lead to Northwestern and that’s a week after looking pretty meh against EMU.  Tom Allen got super-giddy about beating Akron in 4 OTs, which is hilarious.  MSU got smoked by a Maryland team that tried desperately to let them back in, and at this point only the most deranged of MSU fans believe that the return of Dantonio as a sideline creeper will change their outlook.  Nebraska beat up on La Tech on the ground but that’s with their QB putting up 157 yards on 19 carries; feels somewhat unlikely against a good rush defense while the Cornhusker passing game was 8/18 for 107 yards and a TD.  Yikes.

Quick Hits:

• I remain perplexed why Myles Hinton is the left tackle.  He got beat a couple of times in this game especially on obvious passing downs, and while he’s definitely an asset in the running game Michigan has other guys who can move piles and also handle edge rushers better.  Again, I’m really excited about his potential for next year but right now this feels like a blind spot where a coaching staff loves potential over actual performance.  It probably won’t matter until November but they gotta shore up that end because as we saw this weekend against Iowa, PSU has guys who can get around mediocre tackles and destroy QBs.
• I don’t want to be overly negative but I have a feeling that Rod Moore is going to be touch-and-go for the rest of the season.  He missed badly on the big Rutgers TD and didn’t play much (if at all) afterwards.  It looks like a lingering injury that maybe gets better as the season goes on but it clearly isn’t something he’s getting over like Johnson and Paige did, for example.  There’s obviously depth behind him (that also seems to be hurt) but if he can’t go that’s going to be a strain on the secondary.
• I’m not super-bothered by Turner missing that first FG.  He’s not Jake Moody and so expecting that consistency isn’t fair, but having to rekick after a penalty has to be a bit disorienting and he then drilled a 46-yarder later.  And on punt returns it felt like Thaw may have played his way out of the spot by letting another punt hit the ground and roll for 75 yards.  You just can’t let that happen, especially when “I catch the punts” is your calling card.

Next Week:  The Former Frosties

Nebraska in year 1 under Matt Rhule look feisty on defense but limited on offense.  I suspect the Cornhuskers will be tough at home and maybe make a game of it for a while but they are so limited offensively that it’s hard to see the hanging with UM, and their defensive line can still be moved pretty easily by even an average P5 team.  Should be a nice road game to break some guys in if nothing else.