Best: It's Rutgers, but...

Can't wait to start every thought/sentence with 'It's Rutgers, but' for the next week.

— Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) September 28, 2019

I've largely stayed away from this site this past week because, as I've gathered, this past week was one for sorrow and rolling deeply in BPONE. And I get why; Wisconsin just pantsed Michigan in national television and all of the fears and concerns about Harbaugh, Michigan football, and life generally bubbled to the surface. Hell, I wasn't particularly joyous either, though I (like others) recognized that "throwing the ball to your WRs and letting them beat bad secondaries" was more viable than the current offensive philosophy seemed to be.

But one thing I did push back on, and one that I will likely do so for the rest of the year, is this idea that Michigan's disjointed performance is due to some fundamental flaw in the coaching staff or Michigan generally. It's not that I think they are infallible; far from it. Michigan has been on a carousel of relative mediocrity really for decades now, passed by OSU as the preeminent program in the conference and battling for second place with the likes of Wisconsin, PSU, and MSU (the latter admittedly, trending downward after an unprecedented run).

And for some time early on in his tenure, Jim Harbaugh perpetuated some of Michigan's worst tendencies. He was brash, overly confident of Michigan's place in college football's pecking order, and was either resistant to, or ignorant of, some important changes that were sweeping college football (e.g. tempo, RBs heavily involved in the passing game, etc.). He kept his coordinators around too long, then re-shuffled them and their responsibilities such that it was hard to follow who was truly "in charge" of key decisions, and always gave off the vibe of that dad who wants you to learn how to fix it on your own but "damn it you're doing it wrong and I gotta go so just..give...me...it." And yes, I recognize that all of these traits were, and remain, endearing to many fans, and I'll admit it was nice to have a coach who wasn't afraid to poke rivals and possess a certain level of swagger. Still, it hasn't gone quite like Michigan fans had hoped; no Big Ten titles, no playoff appearances, hell the closest they've gotten against OSU are some hard fart losses. Michigan doesn't wear "scrappy underdog" well in the best of times, and under Harbaugh it's not been any different.

Now, there's a world that looks at the end of last season (two dispiriting losses, both blowouts to ranked teams) and just brings everyone back, a year older and maybe a year wiser, hoping against hope that a more favorable home slate and some more familiarity with Pep Hamilton's offense let's Michigan break thru. And maybe that works for a year, as last year's offense was perfectly fine and returned virtually all the relevant pieces. But at best, that was probably going to be a band-aid on a gaping hole in Michigan's approach, as long-developing passing routes and a limited implementation of RPOs wasn't going to keep pace with the top programs nationally. So instead, Jim Harbaugh made the more surprising move and picked up Josh Gattis, a coach with no previous OC experience but a career trajectory littered with success stories, and gave him the reigns to "modernize" his offense.

And yes, I recognize that Harbaugh likely didn't fully give up oversight; it would be sub-optimal to let an unproven OC bare the full weight of running a sophisticated offensive overhaul his first year at a program like Michigan. But it's undeniable that, for better or for worse, this isn't Jim Harbaugh's offense anymore. Evidence is everywhere; last season Michigan picked up 49% of their first downs on runs; this year it's down to 27% while passing first downs are up from 44% to 54%. Hell, they've already picked up 17 first downs by penalty compared to 21 from last season, and a lot of those are the defensive holding/pass interference variety. It's a more aggressive offense, or at least one trying to tax teams downfield, even if a confluence of opponents (Army, Wisconsin) and circumstances (Wisconsin being up 21 12 plays into the game) conspired against it being more obvious.

So this team remains a work in progress; the defense still seems to have 1.5 DT-sized people (Mazi Smith didn't seem to get any run, and Chris Hinton didn't see the field until late in the 4th), rolling out a 3-man front for long stretches of the game. There are questions about at LB and, more generally, how they'll handle the more physical and/or athletic teams on the schedule (I'm not as worried about Glasgow as some are, but he was picked on a bit in this game). Offensively Michigan threw the ball pretty well, though Patterson still seemed to be off with his timing on some throws and had hours of time to survey the field, a luxury he won't enjoy against most other teams. And the running game again struggled to get on track, averaging a mere 3.4 ypc on 41 carries. Even though Patterson picked up 3 scores on the ground, it still never looked like the RPO component of the offense was working. I'm sure some of that was the opponent and wanting to protect your QB, what with your backup currently recovering from a concussion and this being Rutgers. Still, this team hasn't cracked 4 ypc since the game against MTSU, and if there's one piece of the offense you'd never think you'd be worried about under Harbaugh it would have been the running game.

So yeah, beating the tar out of Rutgers doesn't mean a lot. But at least Michigan DID beat them soundly. It won't mean a ton against Iowa, MSU, PSU, ND, or OSU that Michigan stomped an overmatched opponent, but considering the alternative I'll take it.

Worst: Only a Half Rutger

Listen, this isn't going to be a long column. There are more important games coming up that will decide how this season turns out, and just like Rutgers reading the direction of the afternoon I'm not dying to relive what turned out to be the last game in Chris Ash's penance for what I can only assume was a metric ton of bad karma.

As noted by the title, Michigan scored more points (52) than Rutgers had rushing yards (46), denoting a Rutger on the ground. Unfortunately, it would have taken Michigan basically doubling their output to Rutger them in the air, as the Scarlet Knights was able to just squeak past the century mark in the air (106, to be precise). Of course, it says something about the misleading nature of basic math that Artur Sitkowski completing a career high 71% of his throws (yah!) resulted in 6.2 yards per completion (eek!).

Honestly, I don't know what the future holds for Rutgers. Their new head coach, Nunzio Campanile, was coaching HS two years ago, and I'm dubious he'll suddenly turn a program that has been outscored 112-16 over the past 3 weeks. They'll get a couple of beatable teams this next month or so in the form of Maryland, IU, Minnesota, Liberty, and Illinois, but then they end the year picking various body parts off the turf as Ohio State, MSU, and PSU take their turns. I guess you gotta find that money for Jim Delaney's boat somewhere.

And don't cry too hard for Chris Ash; Rutgers still owes him about $8.5MM on his contract, including basically a $7.5MM buyout for his last 3 years. So next time someone tells you "there isn't money available to pay student athletes", remember that this money-losing athletic department is on the hook to pay their now-former head coach millions of dollars because they legitimately believed someone may actually try to poach him. He'll, of course, sit at home collecting his checks and angle for a coordinator's job and a another shot at a head coaching spot; his players will likely have a third head coach starting next season and have limited avenues to find a better situation. But hey, gotta show that "loyalty" to a program.

Best: Ring the Damn Bell

via GIPHY

Depending on your disposition, the fact Ronnie Bell leads Michigan in receptions is either a sign that Bell is significantly outperforming his barely top-1500 national ranking and is a sign of solid talent appraisal and development, or a searing indictment of Michigan's disjointed offensive philosophy that is failing to maximize the talents of his more heralded teammates. Or I guess somewhere in the middle, but where's the fun in that?

And yet, he's often receives the brunt of the criticism directed at the offense's woes throwing the ball (I guess him and Patterson), and a cottage industry of sorts has emerged recently that almost reflexively blames him for any transgressions.

Weekly reminder: Ronnie Bell is good and Michigan fan slander against him is legitimately puzzling.

— Scott Bell (@sbell021) September 28, 2019

It feels like he's adopted the mantle previously held by Stevie Brown, Devin Funchess, and others where wholesale issues with a part of the team manifest into a burning desire to tar and feather someone who is sorta in the same area at the time; the "Blast Radius Of Asinine Hostility" or BROAH (pronounced "Bro-Ah").

Anyway, Bell had yet another solid game for Michigan. He led the team with 6 receptions, including a couple of tough grabs on balls that were off, and was again able to showcase a nice combination of speed and athleticism after the catch. Has he had missteps? Absolutely. But every other receiver has similar missteps and it's sort of expected for college-aged receivers still learning potentially their third offensive system in 3 years. But while Michigan's much-heralded 2017 receiver class gave Michigan numerous opportunities to discover playmakers, Bell was the sole WR taken the following year(!), which makes his emergence into a bona fide threat doubly important. He's a contributor and a vital cog in the passing attack, and even if he's not a star teams need those guys who serve as the mortar of any solid offensive unit.

Obviously the passing offense can only reach it's full potential if/when guys like DPJ, Collins, and Black are running roughshod around, over, and thru secondaries, but Bell deserves a lot of credit for consistently making plays when given the opportunity and serving, at times, as the safety blanket for both Patterson and (when not concussed) McCaffrey. And if #SpeedInSpace is ever going to be a thing, it's probably going to look a bit like Bell getting a step on a guy like he did on the first play against Wisconsin, though less as a result of Patterson scrambling out of the pocket. So if anything, I don't want to see Bell's usage go down as Michigan tries to further install the offense because his performance thus far is exactly what his role demands; the other receivers and the playcalling just need to expand in kind.

Best: They Held Onto The Damn Ball

As announcers are wont to do, BTN flashed a graphic during Michigan's first drive noting that they've fumbled every time they've had the ball on their opening stanza this season. Rutgers, ever the accommodating guest, allowed a TD on their opponents' first drives of the game. While there are a number of different outcomes to a drive beyond "fumble" and "TD", you sorta guessed one of these streaks had to continue because the world is, well, like that right about now. And as luck would have it, Michigan broke the streak.

Michigan only had one turnover all game, a pick on a jump ball to Nico Collins that was a bit short. While you don't want to ever see turnovers in a game, one late in a blowout on a third-down throw to your jump-ball specialist is about as acceptable as you'll get. Michigan will need to hold onto the ball next week against Iowa if they want any chance of winning, but it was good to see the offense flow without any major missteps for a week.

Fine: They Threw the Ball

As noted above, Michigan threw the ball reasonably well in this game, especially early on. Patterson vultured a couple of short TDs but all of their early scoring drives featured long completions and/or significant yards after the catch. Michigan's receivers should have a size and athleticism advantage over basically every secondary they'll see except OSU and maybe PSU, and if the running game is going to remain as janky as it has been they'll need to maximize that mismatch. In particular, integrating DPJ more into the offense will likely give them that speedy deep threat they've admittedly lacked thus far.

Patterson had a solid day throwing the ball, though at times it did feel like he left clean pockets or developing routes too quickly. Again, I don't know what he's been instructed to do with his progressions and this certainly wasn't the game to break out anything new, but it still feels like he (and admittedly, the other two QBs) are thinking about the plays more than just reacting. That's undoubtedly due in no small part to the installation costs of the offense, but it's still tough to watch at times. Still, it was the first time they cracked 300 yards passing since Maryland in 2016 (!!), and once you're done throwing up a bit in your mouth just be happy.

Best: The Big Ten Makes No Sense

So yeah, a week after Wisconsin racked up nearly 500 yards against Michigan they couldn't crack 250 against Northwestern. Coan looked lost for most of the game, Taylor struggled a bit to get his 119 yards, and Wisconsin needed 3 TOs and 2 defensive scores to pull out the win at home. If you got a strong "PSU in 2017" (where the Nittany Lions broke out all the good plays/luck against Michigan and then stumbled the next two weeks), welcome to the club. Wisconsin is probably still the best of the Big 10 West sans maybe Iowa (because good lord did you look at the rest of the games played?!), but if you told me Michigan got the best version of them we'll see all year I wouldn't be remotely shocked. And annoyed. But also not shocked.

PSU smashed Maryland by a score of (checks papers) all of the points. People should be happy that the search functionality on this site leaves a lot to be desired because there are a TON of people who claimed Michigan picked the wrong OC candidate from Alabama. Well, after waxing two pretty terrible defenses to start the year, Maryland has scored...15 points total these past two weeks. They've got Rutgers and Purdue these next couple of weeks so my guess is those numbers will go up, but consider myself slightly less worried about that game in a month or so.

It's a good think Jeff Brohm stuck around Purdue just long enough to snag George Karlaftis before reminding everyone that there's a reason Purdue hasn't won 10 or more games since 1979. And the thing is, this was supposed to be the easy part of their schedule; the Boilermakers go to PSU and Iowa this month and Wisconsin looms late in November. And Rondale Moore and Sindelar are apparently hurt and questionable for PSU, so that could get ugly early. They'll score a billion points against teams like Maryland and Rutgers, but there's a real chance Purdue misses a bowl game and Brohm starts wishing he had made the jump when he had a chance.

MSU has a dominant defense; that's all we've heard since the start of the season. Their offense is up-and-down, but that defense is supposed to control games. So of course Indiana put up 356 yards, domianted time of possession, and came within a couple of seconds of beating MSU on the road. MSU's front 7 still looked sharp (they held IU to 70 yards rushing) but their secondary, as it has been seemingly for a couple of years now, struggles against competent passing attacks. IU's offense is pretty good (29th in S&P+) but their defense is decidedly mediocre (40th), and you have to wonder how MSU will handle OSU this week because there isn't any rain in the forecast.

So, finally, we come to OSU. Ohio State is maybe the best team in the country; it's basically them or Alabama at this point. They are 3rd in points scored and 4th in points allowed this year. Yes, I know those are basic stats but even the best OSU teams had some basic flaws. Right now, Ohio State scores basically at will and stops you from scoring with the quickness. Will that continue? Probably not. Nebraska was always going to be outmatched by the Buckeyes but they nearly pulled off the upset last year in Columbus. But in this game they were done in by three early picks by Martinez, an incredibly porous defense, and OSU just smashing them from the jump. Maybe MSU will slow them down a bit and we'll see how Day and co. handle a bit of adversity (or even just a competent defense), but right now Michigan's playing for second and "hey, they kept it close for a half".

One final note - maybe Scott Frost didn't have as much to do with UCF being undefeated as we all thought. He's a fine coach and all, but UCF had one inexplicably terrible year (the 0-12 season) surrounded by a lot of seasons where they won a lot of games because they recruit pretty well for a G5. Since Frost left UCF has been chugging along just fine while Nebraska has looked shaky on both sides of the ball. The fact the Cornhuskers were ranked to start the year was pure speculation by voters, but I do wonder if Frost ultimately gets Nebraska back to some semblance of divisional competitiveness at the very least, or if they have to square with the reality that college football has changed quite a bit and a program with little local talent and few geographical advantages (especially in the Big 10) might never recapture that glory.

Quick Hits

• Rutgers had most of their success throwing the ball on short crossing routes that got the ball into guys' hands on the run. That involuntary twitch near your eye is signaling that, yes, this is what other teams have done to Michigan for seemingly ever. OSU will undoubtedly go to that well, and MSU, PSU, and ND certainly have players/playcalls capable of exploiting that weakness to varying extents. It's not a glaring weakness by any means (Rutgers still only got a shade over 100 yards passing) and a number of the bigger plays were due in no small part to blatant picks being set by the offense (including one where even Matt Millen scoffed at the refs ignoring it). But the "Put Dax Hill in" cries are only getting louder, and I wouldn't mind him getting some more run and see if he can disrupt those throws a bit more.
• Josh Gattis was on the sideline and, while I think the TV crew spent way too much time focusing on rather banal interactions between him and players after certain plays, it was interesting to see how the players responded to him. He "got into it" with Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines at one point, which to this former Bronx resident barely looked no more aggressive than me ordering a pizza at Salvatores of Soho, but regardless the energy level was definitely higher. We'll see if this was a one-week experiment or if it's a permanent move from the booth, but it was still nice to see him interacting with these kids.

Next Up: Iowa

Iowa is coming off a drubbing of MTSU (hey, we know those guys!), picking up 644 yrads of total offense, including 351 on the ground. It's also the team that got outgained by over 100 yards by Iowa St. on the road and needed your typical El Assico ending to escape with a 1-point victory. My guess is they'll play closer to the Iowa St. game than against MTSU, but it's still going to be a big task for Michigan to beat them at home. Prepare yourself for Kirk Ferentz pulling out a fake punt on 4th-and-20 from his own 5 yard line. Nate Stanley will be able to throw the ball a bit, Iowa will be able to run the ball more than you'd like, and it'll be on the offense to show continued life like they did against Rutgers. I'm an optimist so I'll pick UM, but I'm not confident by any means.