Best: Remix

@thereiruinedit What life choices led me to make this? #littlemermaid #rem #mashup ♬ Losing My Religion Under the Sea - There I Ruined It

You watch enough football and you not only stop being surprised by what happens on the field but you also start viewing the current contest through the lens of the past, seeing patterns from previous games and putting those bits and pieces together in such a way that you can (sometimes) predict how a game will turn out. It's like one-shoting Heardle because of your Pavlovian response to the first beats of Take On Me. On the one hand it tends to subconsciously calm the nerves a bit to recognize the familiar, much in the same way "tropes" in movies and TV give the viewer an easy shorthand for following the plot. You see both teams trading scoring drives with minimal defensive resistance (looking at you Alabama and Tennessee or basically any Big 12 game between 2012 and 2020) and you settle in for a game of attrition, where the last possession likely decides the game. Conversely, when you see one team dominate the other so thoroughly that the refs are calling roughing-the-passer penalties seemingly because, as Joel Klatt noted, the QB was getting hit so hard so often they felt bad for him, you know you're free to flip around channels, mow the lawn, or start writing a diary about college football your wife encouragingly describes as "your thing you like to do" as she shakes her head on the couch. But on the other hand, if the game starts to take on the shape of a Bad Time then you're basically locked into 3 hours of watching for various shoes to drop while agonizing over the fact that we as football consumers love horror movies wherein the scariest parts (e.g. who's open downfield) are left as jump scares every time the QB hurls a ball downfield.

Usually when I find myself cobbling together such a narrative it's comprised of a hodge-podge of games from by-gone eras, some collection of standard-definition classics with Keith Jackson intoning the viewer about the majesty of the sport and guys with crop top jerseys celebrating last-minute scores. But not this week against PSU, as I only had to look back to last year to see mirror images of the first and second halves.

The first quarter of this game couldn't have gone better for Michigan; they marched down the field on their first two drives and scored while PSU only picked up 9 total yards on 6 plays, 8 on the only completion Clifford had on 2 attempts. It was eerily similar to Michigan's trip to Happy Valley last season, where Michigan only had 5 yards on 6 plays in the first quarter while PSU marched down the field twice on 14-play drives but only would up with 3 points because of redzone troubles including a botched fake FG.  Michigan was able to weather that initial storm and put together one solid scoring drive to take the lead, and PSU ended the half with a FG to close within 1 at 7-6 despite, again, dominating on the stats sheet.  Michigan was a bit more dominant in this first half than PSU was last year but still, Michigan barely led at halftime despite out-gaining PSU 274-83 because they failed to convert multiple redzone trips into TDs.  At that moment I was fully prepared for the second half to look a lot like last year’s game, where both teams got a bit more on track and it was a tight slog to the end. 

But then a fracas broke out in the tunnel between the two teams at halftime.

https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1581371859010027522

And with that, the narrative switched from 2021 PSU…to 2021 OSU.  As noted above, that game was close at halftime as well, everyone got a little rowdy, and Michigan proceeded to spend the second half pummeling the Buckeyes with everything they had available.  Never one to turn down an opportunity to play the hits, Michigan spent the entire second half of this game demolishing Penn State on the ground, scoring 2 60+ TDs on successive drives to open the second half and keeping Penn State out of the endzone.   They added a FG and another touchdown in the 4th and in the end Michigan, much like they did against the Buckeyes, blew out a top-10 team in the second half on the way to a convincing victory.  And like the OSU game they did so despite actively telegraphing what they were going to do; McCarthy only threw the ball 4 times in that second half and none for more than 7-10 yards downfield.

Penn State’s defense probably isn’t as good as their #6 ranking coming into the game suggested; they hadn’t really played a competent offense outside of Purdue’s all year while Michigan had moved the ball effectively against a great Iowa defense.  But this was still a level of demolishing in the second half that felt unexpected, and even when Clifford was able to piece together some yards in the second half they took so much effort and guile that it never felt sustainable.  That’s the one difference I’ll say between this game and either from last year – in those games both PSU and OSU were able to move the ball with some consistency against Michigan.  Outside of their opening drive in the 3rd quarter Penn State barely moved the ball in the second half and were booted off the field every time they tried to go for it on 4th down. 

Now, with MSU coming up you’d be nervous of another repeat from last year but this MSU team hasn’t shown anything close to that ability from last season, so here’s hoping I’m remembering a slightly more distant MSU game as a reference point for how the game plays out.  Because right now this team is playing arguably better than last year’s team, which given how that season played out presages a pretty entertaining next month and a half.

 

Best:  Run

Coming into the year the big concern was whether or not Michigan’s running game would be able to keep up with their dominant performance from last year, where they had two of the top running backs in the country and led the non-service academy schools in the nation with 39 TDs on the ground.  Hassan Haskins went from a guy with 2 P5 offers (the other being Purdue, who seemingly cooled on him) and who was briefly discussed as a candidate to switch to linebacker to setting a couple team records and indelibly etching his name into the UM-OSU rivalry with a record-tying 5 rushing TDs.  Blake Corum had a great season last year as well and returned, while Donovan Edwards flashed promise in his true freshman campaign, but there was still some uncertainty if Michigan would be able to move the ball as effectively on the ground.  Well, through 7 weeks Michigan has one of the most efficient offenses in the country and is the most efficient team overall when adjusted for opponent.  The best analogy I can make is a souped-up Wisconsin with 4/5* talent at the skill positions.  Those early Paul Chryst Badger teams were some of the most efficient teams offensively every season because they fed a steady stream of NFL-caliber RBs through talented offensive lines and had enough passing prowess to punish teams if they tried to gum up the operation.  Well, Michigan’s largely been able to reproduce that same formula but instead of stealing RBs from Rutgers Michigan’s got top-100 guys running behind highly-regarded offensive linemen with a 5* QB throwing to some of the best receivers in the conference.  It’s breathtaking at times to watch.

In this game both Corum and Edwards broke off huge runs, with Edwards putting UM ahead for good early in the 2nd half with a huge run where he didn’t get touched, and Corum followed that up on the very next offensive play with a 61-yard burst through the middle where multiple PSU defenders slammed into each other as he scampered past them.  They both finished with over 170 yards and 2 TDs a piece, and each contributed with key receptions in the passing game as well.  Corum did wind up carrying the ball 28 times, continuing his workman-like streak of 20+ carries in conference play, but this felt easier than games against Iowa and Maryland when UM needed to lean on him.  Edwards consistently ran with purpose and the right combination of power and finesse, while he remains one of the best receivers coming out of the backfield in the conference, if not the country.  Michigan’s going to need him to spell Corum in the second half of the year, but if they’re also able to integrate him more into the passing game that will undoubtedly lead to big gains in the air and make this offense even more dangerous than it currently is.

 

Meh:  MGMT

Last I week I unleashed my HAWTEST TAKE of the year and said that J.J. McCarthy has been a really solid game manager thus far but it felt like the offense was a bit in neutral vertically because either Weiss + Harbaugh wasn’t asking him to do so or he was still in the learning phase and reticent/recalibrating his throws downfield.  Block quote incoming:

But right now, after 3 conference games, he looks adequate managing the offense and the game plan Harbaugh, Weiss, and co. want to run. He's struggled thus far connecting downfield to his receivers but anything within 10-ish yards has been solid. His two leading receivers are Ronnie Bell, a great possession receiver with a little git-up, and Luke Schoonmaker, his reliable backup TE who's stepped in seamlessly for Erick All. In conference play he's completed 74% of his passes (64/86), for 6 TDs, 1 pick, and 7.9 ypa. For comparison, last year McNamara's first three games featured 59% (48/82), 2 TDs, 1 pick and 7.5 ypa.  McCarthy has been much more accurate throwing the ball (I'd argue his receivers are better this year than they were early last season with Bell out and All still rounding into the player we saw to end the year) and has more TDs, but overall the two offenses have scored basically the same number of points (92 this year vs. 90 last year) and the ypa is about the same.

This game didn’t do much to dispel this distillation – McCarthy was 17/24 (75%) for 145 yards, a long of 35 yards, and 1 pick (six) and no TDs, an efficient 6 ypa.  In 4 Big 10 games he’s completing 74% (81/110) of his passes for an average of 206 yards per game and 7.5 ypa, with a 6 TD/2 INT split.  Against like opponents from last year (all of which were in the second half of the season, mind you), McNamara completed 67%(66/99) of his throws for about 203 yards per game and 8.2 ypa with a 8 TD/1 INT split.  So a bit more accurate, a bit less explosive but in general a performance where he performed adequately within the confines of the offensive game plan and kept everything moving.  The fact Michigan was 11/17 on 3rd down going against a defense that had previously limited teams to under 30% is a testament to such steadiness.  But he’s not been tasked with more than he can handle, and as I noted earlier McCarthy was only tasked with throwing the ball 4 times in the second half because of how dominant UM was on the ground, echoing how the Wolverines similarly gashed OSU in their game last year despite only throwing 4 times to close it out. 

He still has a cannon for an arm that (as shown on the one long throw to Johnson) is extremely dangerous on the run as well as stationary.  But beyond that one throw he didn’t connect much downfield, throwing a bit too much into the sideline to a covered Bell and otherwise being content to throw 7-10 yards downfield on little hitch routes, screens, and similar passes that worked against PSU’s limited linebackers.  In no way should this be misconstrued as bad, as the pick wasn’t really his fault (whenever a ball caroms off multiple helmets the blame falls squarely on some angered football god and not the QB) and other than a couple of missed or late throws McCarthy expertly maneuvered past a secondary full of NFL-level corners and athletic safeties while dealing with a blitz-heavy defensive scheme.  In fact, the “worst” throw of the day was one he completed but absolutely shouldn’t have even attempted, the being-tackled-so-chuck-it-over-a-waiting-linebacker YOLO special to Corum that led to Harbaugh openly grimacing on the sideline.

https://twitter.com/JDue51/status/1581593561598169090

Yes, it’s nice when that happens FOR Michigan instead of against, but that was an incredibly dangerous throw in a game still very much in the balance and anyone claiming “oh you’re being a downer, it’s good to know your 5* QB can make that throw” is just being purposely obtuse about what is a “good” play in that situation.  Regardless, it was the one glaring misstep I saw on the day, which again is great given the level of competition.  And the piece that McCarthy unlocked in the offense that was lacking with McNamara – the ability to run the ball from the QB position either with designed runs or scrambling when nobody was open against the rush – was key his performance being so good against an aggressive Nittany Lion defense.  Say what you will about Manny Diaz’s career as a DC – the fact I remember his name from multiple stops at big-name programs that tended to coincide with poor tackling and bungled secondaries isn’t a positive in my book – he knows how to get after a QB and yet McCarthy consistently picked up positive yards with his legs (3 first downs on 6 rushes, should have been 4 had the refs spotted his scramble on 3rd-and-8 properly) when the opportunity presented itself.  Having that club in his bag, so to be speak, is undoubtedly why Michigan’s run offense has been just as dangerous this year despite losing an All-American in Haskins and, save for a couple of games earlier this year, the services of a great blocker in All.  If this season plays out with McCarthy improving a bit downfield while retaining that elusiveness and dangerousness on the ground, there’s no reason to believe UM can’t be undefeated heading into Columbus and, frankly, do so without being particularly challenged by any defense on the schedule. 

So while I am apparently in the minority here when it comes to McCarthy – I see a lot of potential still being brought along relatively slowly and with some issues to still iron out – I do think he’s been as good as advertised as a playmaker and raises the ceiling for the offense with his legs.  I’m not sure he needs to open it up against MSU in order to win - the Spartans looked better defensively against Wisconsin than OSU but we’re talking about a Wisconsin offense that’s a bit worse than Auburn’s and a tad better than Texas A&M’s and Notre Dame’s – but if asked to do so my guess is he’ll perform pretty well.

 

Best:  Answering the Bell

In a game with only 17 receptions to go around, Ronnie Bell continued his comeback season by leading the team (again) in receptions (5) and yards after the catch (30) while picking up a couple of crucial first downs, including one on 3rd down to start the 2nd quarter that required him to scamper across the field and fight off a defender for the first.  On the day he picked up 2 first downs on 3rd-and-10+ as well as a DPI on 2nd-and-12 when the PSU defender mugged him basically from the snap.  He wasn’t called upon to block a ton on the longer runs simply because Michigan was able to make a ton of hay going right down the middle of the defense, but him and Johnson both helped free up lanes down the sideline when presented with the opportunity.  Already this year Bell has 35 catches for 429 yards and a TD, nearly equaling the total for the rest of the main receivers (Johnson, Wilson, Henning, and Anthony combined have 43 catches) and further establishing himself as the leader on the field as well as one of the more impressive recruiting finds of the Harbaugh era.  While I’m not sure of his pro prospects – most draft analysis I’ve seen about him is based on preseason discussions (when he was coming back from an ACL injury) and saw him as a late round/UDFA player – but he currently sits 6th in the league in receptions and given some of the teams coming up it’s not hard seeing him pump up those numbers. 

 

Best:  Adjustments, Part Deux

In what is apparently the theme of this diary (or a quick way to save on creative thinking), last week against Indiana I highlighted how Michigan’s 2nd-half adjustments defensively shut down the Hoosiers and turned a close-ish game into a rout.  Well, this game had a different look than that one in the first half because PSU barely had the ball; they only ran 14 plays and picked up 83 yards over the first two quarters, but were able to cash in on a couple of big plays (the 62-yard run by Clifford, the pick six) to score 14 points and average 6 ypp compared to UM’s 5.5 despite Michigan running (checks notes) a buttload more plays.  And while Michigan ran that surplus of plays, they struggled to turn them into TDs, as drives of 11, 13, and 11 plays spanning 64, 77, and 60 yards ended with chip shot FGs as the offense sputtered in the redzone. 

But in the second half Michigan’s offense really opened up as they scored TDs on drives of 4, 1, and 6 plays spanning 81, 61, and 47 yards, upping their 2nd-half per-play average to 9.1 ypp while holding PSU to a mere 3 points and 4.9 ypp.  The defense, which again had been quite stout in the first half, only allowed one 48-yard completion on the opening drive of the second half, an absolute dime by Clifford that featured Turner in great coverage.  But beyond that one play Michigan picked up 2 sacks and harassed both Clifford and Allar throughout the half, consistently driving them out of pockets and making them see ghosts even when they had a moment to survey the field.  Jesse Minter again broke out some interesting formations, including one on their first sack of the second half where they didn’t line anyone up on the right side of the line but wound up sending Moten down the middle to smother Clifford.  As the announcers frequently reminded the listeners, Sean Clifford has been playing college football for a long time (he’s 24-years-old and been the starter for 4 years) and one of his defining characteristics is being able to process chaos effectively, but he was seemingly caught off-guard by that look and so was his offensive line as multiple Wolverines flowed through with little resistance. 

The game went from a slow-motion blowout to a sped-up one in the second half, but there’s a world where this game stayed tight as Penn State picked up some momentum coming out of the half.  But credit to the staff and players for making the necessary adjustments and closing the door on a comeback immediately. 

Worst:  PFF’s Line Grading

It’s been an ongoing discussion point this year how poorly Michigan’s offensive line has graded out in run blocking given how dominant they’ve been on the ground.  In this game Michigan’s line inexplicably scored below-average while PSU’s was a tad above despite producing 418 yards (!) on 55 (!!) carries and 4 TDs (!!!), a tidy 7.6 ypc while the other produced 111 yards on 22 carries and 1 TD, with 62 of those yards coming on a QB run that rested heavily on Rod Moore being misaligned due to tempo and vacating the middle of the field.  I’ve always been pretty dubious of PFF beyond their per-snap “counting” numbers, as their approach seems to favor speed of data aggregation instead of quality.  It was some years ago but I remember they’d tweet out whole-game position and player scoring mere hours after the contest ended, an absurd pace which meant they (at best) had a bunch of freelancers watching each important game and scoring in real-time or (more likely) checking the box score, doing some vibe checks, and popping out some numbers.  Now, that approach probably works decently when scoring skill position players, especially on offense – if a running back averaged 6 ypc and scored 3 TDs he had a good game in all likelihood.  But considering how nuanced line blocking is, how defensive rotations can put secondary players in positions where they’re “right” but a breakdown elsewhere leaves them in chase position on a big play, it’s difficult to imagine there’s a ton of thoughtful analysis going on with offensive line scoring.  Hell, Brian and Seth spend untold hours reviewing just Michigan’s playcalls and even their analysis can come under fire.

So yeah, while I’m not in the “conspiracy” camp mostly because I don’t give PFF enough credit to actually put the effort into gaslighting a fanbase, the fact they seemingly can’t recognize how dominant Michigan’s line has been on the ground this year is searing indictment of the Big 10 referees-level clownshow they’re apparently running in their analysis department.

 

Quick Hits:

• Michigan didn’t punt a single time in this game and only faced 5 4th downs all game.  They connected on all four of their chipshot FG attempts and picked up the first on their one 4th-down attempt.  It’s hard to stress how methodically this offense drove down the field against, again, a pretty good defense.  Michigan made Penn State look far worse on defense than they actually are, much like they did against Iowa as well.
• In addition to being perfect on FGs for the day Moody got into the action on kick return, de-cleating PSU’s returner.  Probably want to refrain from risking injury like that too often but it was still pretty cool to see him flip a guy over.
• I know this conference is full of dubious coaching contracts but I’m still amazed that heading into year 9 of the James Franklin Experience Penn State continues to basically bid against themselves and re-up for even more guaranteed years.  It’s now $7M/year for 10 years, plus additional performance bonuses that could knock it up to $85M.  Yes, I know college coaches’ contracts aren’t ever for the full term but still, unless Franklin does something dumb enough to get him fired for cause Penn State will be writing him pretty hefty checks until the mid-2030s even if they one day decide that going 23-16 in conference since Saquon Barkley graduated isn’t where they see themselves.  MSU paying Mel Tucker outrageous money based on Kenneth Walker falling into their laps for a year is equally dumb but at least there you can see it through the patina of novelty and hope, the idea that maybe this new guy can lead you back to the upper crust of college football.  But Franklin has been a pretty mediocre coach for going on half a decade now, and whatever recruiting wins he’s bringing in can’t possibly be that hard to reproduce given PSU’s history and resources.  I doubt we’ll see it but if Penn State continues to looked out-classed by the likes of Michigan and Ohio State it might behoove the Nittany Lions to consider pulling a Wisconsin and making a change before the chasm between them and the top teams in the conference gets too wide.

Next Week:  Bye, then MSU

So there won’t be a diary next week but after that Michigan welcomes MSU, who “saved” their season by barely defeating a bad Wisconsin team in double OT.  This was a train wreck of a game for many reasons but we’ve long been in MSU Superbowl territory with this contest and I can’t imagine it’ll be any different this year.  Unlike Dantonio, who spent seemingly months plotting how to beat UM, I have my doubts Tucker has a bag of new tricks he’ll break out in this game.  But MSU has a tendency to play above their heads (and go for ankles) when they’re outclassed like they are this year, so it’s going to be stressful even if it turns into the slow-motion blowout it looks like on paper.  My guess is Thorne and Reed connect on a couple of bullshit throws and Michigan grinds a bit more than you’d like to see on the ground, but win this game and it’s clear sledding to Columbus undefeated.  UM won’t lack for any reasons to be motivated for this game and retribution for the past couple of years, but I’ve watched these teams too long to expect it to not get a bit hairy.  One bit of intrigue will be if UM’s injured players are able to make it back, as this is the type of game where guys tend to rally back.  So that’ll be worth watching next week.  Go blue.