Best and Worst: Notre Dame

Submitted by bronxblue on

So it looks like a number of people have written game recaps already (including Brian), so I totally understand if the site has recap exhaustion and you skip this. Hell, I wanted to skip it as well. And what sucks is there isn't some hidden silver lining from this game we're all missing, not was it some ass-kicking that exposed Michigan as a fraud. It was just a football game that Michigan lost because Notre Dame played better.

Worst: Michigan's Maginot Line

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I was never much of a history buff growing up; outside of the European History AP class my only exposure to World War II were Wolfenstein and Call of Duty games, which taught me that (a) there were WAY more mutant Nazis than I thought, and (b) you can heal major injuries by eating a plate of chicken and "greens". But one of the historical footnotes that always stuck with me was France's Maginot Line, a heavily fortified line of bunkers and artilery installed by the French after WWI as a means to deter German insurgence into France. The idea behind it was sound; in the event that Germany tried to invade, this line would either turn them away or, at the bare minimum, slow them down sufficiently so that reinforcements could arrive.

But, and there's always a "but" in situations like this, it didn't stretch across the entire eastern territory. There were a number of holes in the line, but the most signifcant was in the Ardennes region, a heavily forrested, mountainous area that the French (rightfully) assumed would be arduous enough geographically as to deter action by an invader or, as with the wall, sufficiently slow them down. It also butted up against Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, and so another assumption was that Germany wouldn't want to violate those borders as well, as that would just escalate tensions and bring even more countries into a battle. And so, you can't blame the French for believing this line would hold up, with some weaknesses at the edges but such a stout interior that it should absolutely be able to hold up against any attack.

And in a way, the Mignot Line did it's job; Germany looked at those fortifications and correctly deduced that a war of attrition as in WWI wasn't a viable option. But they also figured out that they didn't have to; they could go around the Line by going through those three countries I mentioned earlier around the Ardennes area, because they (a) didn't care one bit about violating any sovereign lands, and (b) they knew that for all of France's might, it's neighbors were comparatively quite weak. And so the Germans blitzed through this terrain, basically cutting off the Line from the rest of France and also nearly decimating the British army that was holed up at Dunkirk. If that name sounds familiar, of course, it means you know some man over the age of 50, as apparently all of them saw the titlular movie about that siege and subsequent escape. But I digress.

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So if you haven't gotten the theme yet, this game highlighted Michigan's gapping holes along the offensive line, but no moreso than at the tackles. We all knew this was going to be an issue, but I'll admit to drinking the Kool-Aid that Michigan couldn't be much worse than last year's 117th-ranked pass blocking unit because there are only 130-ish D1 football programs and at least some of them play in the Big 10 West. And honestly, they probably aren't terrible; playing a projected top-10 defense on the road at night in your first game of the year is a cricible for any player and will accentuate your issues to the nth degree. Now, before you call me a homer, that doesn't mean I think the offensive tackles will be even below-average this year. They won't; we've seen enough from the current starters to know that ain't no bird rising up from their ashes.

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Michigan's interior line was reasonably solid in their execution; Ruiz seemed a bit lost at times getting the snap off quickly and there were your random missed blocks by Onwenu and Bredeson, but all three (to my layman eyes) held up fine against a stout ND defensive front. But on both ends of the line, ND repeatedly compressed the pocket seemingly with minimal effort. Notre Dame's defensive ends are solid, and their LBs are quite athletic and all on NFL radars, so Michigan's tackles looking profoundly unable to slow down the rush without a significant amount of support from TEs, the backs, etc. isn't all that surprising. But what got me was the degree to which they seemed unable to cope. There were multiple times on even 4-man rushes where an end or lineman would brush off a block and run largely unmolested into the backfield. It wasn't that they could only stay in front for a second or two; many times, they simply couldn't even engage the rushers. And that's troubling not because it spells doom against your Wisconsins and various felony-magnet state colleges of the world (because it does), but also because it spells trouble for teams like Northwestern who don't have who dominant front 7s but can get after you with consistent pressure if you struggle to stay in front of them.

And the problem with struggling to get engagement is that it robs you of a common remedy for poor tackle play; a mobile QB. You saw that with Notre Dame; their tackles weren't immensely better than Michigan's, but because they could maintain some level of contact on Gary and Winovich (as well as a handful of jerseys on a lot of plays), they were able to carve out the small pockets for Wimbush to move through that kept drives alive. Wimbush didn't have a great day in the end; though he finished with 229 yards of total offense, 55% completion percentage with a pick and a TD, most of the good stuff happened in the first quarter (6/9 for 114 yards, the TD, and 14 yards on the ground). Michigan made adjustments as the game progressed and Wimbush barely cracked 100 yards of total offense for the final three quarters while ND barely nudged past 160 yards total. But whereas Patterson got sacked 3 times (for 32 yards) and hit another 6 times, Michigan only got Wimbush down twice (for 18 yards) and hit him 3 other times. Plus, Wimbush got a couple of penalties (a facemask and a roughing the passer) that helped keep drives alive. Michigan couldn't find these hidden yards the way ND did, and in a game decided by 7 points and was, honestly, closer than a lot of people are saying, that's the difference between your line being good enough or abandoning ship.

Now, I'm not one to overreact generally, and considering some of the other games we saw this weekend it's not beyond the pale to say that a night game on the road against a top-10 defense with a new position coach and a couple new starters might not be the truest test of the potential for this offensive line. They could absolutely turn into a competent unit with some tinkering, and not being down 14-0 before they can catch their breath would undoubtedly help in terms of more creative playcalling that doesn't scream "we're throwing the ball" on second down. But I've seen enough football, particularly at Michigan these past 10-odd years, that I'm not holding out hope that it will. At best, they'll likely be below average pass blocking, and the hope is that the ranking is closer to 80 than 120. My one hope is that they hold on for dear life to those redshirts for guys like Mayfield and Hayes. This team is probably 1.5 tackles away from being a real contender nationally, but because of timing, luck, and poor roster management they couldn't get another year year out of Mason Cole or any year out of Grant Newsome. But the only way Michigan can get off this treadmill on the offensive line is to start building back up a stable of competent, prepared players at key spots, and throwing out a couple of undersized, ill-prepared tackles just to lose to OSU by a bit less is bad calculus. Sometimes you will lose the battle but win the war, and Michigan's got some reinforcements on the line; best not to waste them prematurely.

Worst: Michigan's 1st-quarter Defense

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Yes, there's a certain amount of "other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?" to it all, but those first two drives both really set the tone for the whole game and also gave people the misconception that Notre Dame was dominant throughout the game. This really was a close game that Michigan let get out of hand early on with those two long drives (helped in no small part by a couple of valid penalties that netted Notre Dame 30 yards), and then Michigan had just a couple of mistakes (Patterson getting sacked out of FG range on that second drive, the missed FG on a bad hold, letting Wimbush get free on that 3rd-and-18 conversion) that let Notre Dame stay ahead. I'm not a big fan of Bud Elliott generally, but he had a good take on how the sequence of plays in this game made its complexion appear quite a bit different than the meat of the matter.

4. Cluster luck. Notre Dame’s drives were all or nothing. Michigan had many wasted yards. Notre Dame put together drives with multiple chunk plays, which ended in scores. Drives of 75, 96, 75, and 41 went for three touchdowns and a field goal. Notre Dame’s non-scoring drives went for -4, 28, 3, 0, 3, 13, and 8. This is mostly sequencing, like clustering hits in a row in baseball. That is not a skill, but it does have a large impact on the outcome. Michigan, on the other hand, had a scoring drive of 80 and 31 yards, but substantial drives of 47, 48, and 52 went without points.

Notre Dame played better than Michigan, but you sort of expect that for the home team in the first game of the year. But Michigan's defense absolutely made adjustments and played significantly better as the game progressed, even with Metellus out for a valid targetting call (though I'd like to add that I remember a Notre Dame player leading with the helmet high on a hit to McKeon that didn't draw the ire of anyone). But that first quarter was a killer, and on the road it's hard to come back from that type of hole against a good team.

And to people who said this game provided a "blueprint" to beating Michigan: no it didn't, or at least not any more than it gave a blueprint of how to beat any good defense. Michigan hasn't met a mobile quarterback they can consistently bottle up as long as I've been alive; my first game as a student at Michigan Stadium was against Notre Dame in 1999, and Jarious Jackson still gives me nightmares. And Wimbush, in particular, is a bear to contain; there's a reason a guy who barely cracked 50% completion for his career is the starting QB at Notre Dame, and it's because he's the size of a linebacker and and as fast a running back. Throw in a couple of nice passes and an answered prayer and that's how you hang 24 on Michigan's defense despite barely cracking 300 yards of total offense. There are good offenses still on the schedule that will give Michigan fits, but this also felt like a bunch of coin-flips that kept going Notre Dame's way, which can happen in a game even when they'll ultimately even out over a season.

Worst: Michigan Doesn't Have Meyer Disease

In the land of hot takes, one of the most prevalent is this argument that Michigan doesn't "know" how to win games. Like the argument that Michigan's QBs have apparently forgotten how to throw the ball, it's based 100% on angry feelings and 0% on reality. Beyond the fact that a football team undergoes nearly 100% attrition every 4 years (plus changes in the coaching staff), which should mitigate the chance of a "loser's mentality" to set in, it tends to turn small issues big. Michigan was driving for a potential tying score with a couple minutes left in a game where they were down 14-0 before they even caught their breath. They had a new QB, a bunch of young receivers, and two-ish new starters at tackle get absolutely rag-dolled all day, and yet they were in the game late and, to be honest, were the better team in the second half. They made adjustments and were figuring things out, which you'd rather have them figure out at home against some cupcake, but that wasn't how the schedule shook out. But the allusions to the 2015 season are hard to ignore, with Michigan losing by the same score against a a good team (Utah finished that year 17th nationally, top-30 per S&P+), and breaking in a new QB. That team got better as the year progressed, beating 3 ranked teams (and it would have been 4 without they, you know, thing...), and followed that up with going 3-2 against ranked teams in 2016, which included playing teams that finished 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th in the final BCS poll. Last year was a step back for a number of reasons, but again it was to a cadre of pretty good teams (PSU, Wisconsin, OSU, and MSU all finished with 10+ wins) and often by pretty close games (only PSU would be considered a blowout).

That doesn't mean the playcalling and execution needs to improve; while I think too much was made of Michigan's relatively slow pace on their last couple of drives (again, a true sophomore center and a new QB getting their first game starts together seemed like a recipe for disaster and this slower pace probably helped limit miscues), but at times the offense seemed out of sorts getting anything going forward and the defense allowed Notre Dame to stay on schedule way too much. But you can see the germ of a good team out there Saturday, and I fully expect them to grind down more of the rough edges these next couple of weeks against far more pliable teams.

Fine: Patterson's first game

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The grumbly part of the Michigan internet saw Shea Patterson's first game as anything from a major disappointment to a repudiation of Jim Harbaugh as a coach. It wasn't a great debut by any means, but at this point I remain amazed that people still believe the problem is at QB and not with the greater offensive system, in particular pass blocking. Michigan has now played 5 QBs over the past 14 games, and their combined numbers range from pedestrian (55% completion percentage) to bad (6.5 ypa) to ghastly (9 TDs vs. 11 INTs). Now, your opinions on guys like Speight, Patterson, Peters, O'Korn, and McCaffrey may vary, but I don't subscribe to the notion that they all are bad QBs who forgot how to play the position the minute they donned the Maize and Blue or the clock struck January 1st, 2017. Nor does it mean that Jim Harbaugh has suddenly lost the ability to connect with QBs and extract the maximum amount of performance from them. But what you saw with Patterson on Saturday has been a common scene for over a year now; a QB trying to keep plays alive by abandoning ship because the rush got their too quickly, the defense making adjustments while Michigan didn't even call an audible, and a struggle to stay out of 3rd-and-long spots (Michigan's average distance was 6.1 yards to go). In particular, I was reminded that a big reason why Michigan has struggled for some time throwing deep is that guys don't have enough time to get open before the QB is swarmed, and you saw it again in this game where Patterson was almost constantly rolling around, looking for guys deep before having to settle for either something shorter.

And I get that Michigan came into the game with a conservative gameplan; I'm sure they assumed the defense wouldn't give up two scoring drives of 75 and 96 yards to start the game, and so they probably figured that the way this game would hinge on field position and a dearth of turnovers. But when it became clear that Michigan wasn't going to be able to play that style, I was bothered that they didn't make a whole lot of adjustments in the gameplan. To their credit they did start throwing the ball to Grant Perry more, as he was perpetually open and usually did catch the ball when thrown to him (5 catches on 7 targets, 48 yards), but Evans only got two balls all day and they were on Michigan's final scoring drive, with both going for first downs. Gentry never really got going even though he posed matchup problems all day (the refs were bad across the board for both teams in this game, but Gentry definitely felt the brunt of the "grab him as soon as he gets close" style of defensive coverage), and other than a deep ball to Collins it was just a lot of short throws that were the 3rd/4th options on a lot of plays.

Now, Patterson has a history of struggling against elite pass defenses (as do basically all QBs), and his unwillingness to throw the ball away a couple of times cost Michigan field position and/or the chance for points (his 16-yard sack pulled them out of FG position in the first quarter). But he's not Denard or Wimbush and so he's not going to be able to run away from pressure like they can, but he's also a much better passer and one capable of leading a dynamic offense if he can get some damn time. It's imperative on the staff to figure out a way to buy time in the passing game, whether it be by leaving more blockers back, shifting the pocket at the snap (which is harder when neither side of the line is particularly stout), or using a gameplan that highlights short passes and quick routes to keep linebackers in check. But talk of McCaffrey looking better in this game is both (a) wrong, and (b) the same type of revisionist bullshit people pulled with O'Korn, Peters, and Patterson before him. No QB is going to be good when he's picking turf out of his ears, and while I fully expect Patterson to look better in the coming weeks when he gets to feast on mediocre defenses, the problems at QB will continue to rear their ugly head until the blocking and gameplan issues get fixed.

Quick Hits:

  • I thought the refs were bad, but Michigan did themselves no favor with a number of their bigger penalties. I don't know if Metellus was going for the head on his hit, but that was a defenseless WR and he lowered his shoulder into him. You can't do that. Same with Winovich on his roughing the passer. It's closer because Winovich was curving around a tackle and took 1-ish step after Wimbush got rid of the ball, but you can't let that happen on third down regardless. Hill's pass interference, as Brian noted, was troubling because it was Hill having to bail, but there was a ton of bumping all day, and Notre Dame's receivers are big enough that if you let them hold you at arm's length long enough, they'll get some separation. And yes, Michigan's PI on their late TD drive was also pretty suspect, as both Gentry and Hayes were just smashing into each other. But Notre Dame got 4 first downs by penalties in this game, and giving up that many free downs is going to kill anyone's attempts at winning a game.
  • Ambry Thomas should always be returning kicks, and I'm a little down on DPJ doing the same for punts. Peoples-Jones is a great athlete and showed improved route-running in this game, but trying to return the ball from the 2-yard line last in the first half was dangerous (he even took a step back and stutter-stepped, the cardinal sin for returners near their own goallines) and robbed Michigan of a chance to get the ball at the 20 with about 40 seconds to spare. I don't believe for a second that they'd have scored a TD on that shortened drive, but with Nordin you don't have to get that far for it to be in his range, and on Michigan's next offensive play (the start of the second half) they connected on a bomb to Nico Collins. So it was in the playbook, and it clearly could have worked. And it wasn't just in this game; there was a string last year when he struggled to field kicks appropriately. I think he's great and will be an integral point of the offense, but I'd rather they put someone like Oliver Martin or Thomas back there for punts at this point.
  • I thought Brad Hawkins was fine filling for Metellus, but all we'll remember is him losing a jump ball to Finke in the endzone. That seems to be an issue for Michigan going on years now; they don't win these 50/50 balls on defense nearly as often as you'd assume given the talent. I'm a believer in the law of averages over a large enough sample, so maybe the next couple of weeks Michigan will pick off McSorley and Lewerke bombs and the world will be right again. But that throw by Wimbush was telegraphed, underthrown, and in any other world should have been knocked down at the very least.
  • It will be forgotten soon, but it should be remembered that PSU and MSU barely survived games at home against far worse teams than Notre Dame. MSU struggled to run the ball against last year's 80th-ranked rush defense, and PSU gave up 450 yards in total offense to a talented App St. offense still breaking in a new QB and a couple of transfers. Miami was blown out by an Ed Orgeron team (down 33-3 at one point to LSU), and Washington got demolished on the ground by Auburn (5 sacks, 9 TFLs). Hell, even Ohio State looked a bit suspect defensively, giving up nearly 400 yards (396 to be precise) to an Oregon State team that only cracked 375 yards in total offense 4 times last year. And it wasn't all in junk time; Oregon State scored on drives of 3 plays or less 3 times, all spanning 75+ yards. While I don't think people should read too much into those struggles so early in the year, all those teams showed weaknesses that can be exploited just as readily as any Michigan displayed, and in the case of the Big 10 teams, to inferior teams than the one Michigan faced.
  • It's been said already, but Braylon Edwards is an idiot and I'm happy he got suspended for going off on Twitter. I turned on him when he was caught drunk-driving on the Westside Highway while with the Jets (how do you not take a cab/private car in New York F' City when you go out drinking) and proceeded to get into fights with everyone wherever he landed. But because he's slightly unhinged and isn't afraid to call teenagers weak, he gets attention, and he doesn't deserve it. I hope we don't hear from him again.

Next Week

It's Western Michigan. A team that was down 34-7 to Syracuse at halftime, clawed back a bit, but still lost by 13 after giving up 55 points. WMU is a below-.500 team since P.J. Fleck left, has a bad defense, a mediocre offense despite dropping 42 on the 'Cuse, and are going to be getting a Michigan team that is going to be really sick of answering questions for the next week. This should be the game where Higdon and co. grind up WMU up front while Patterson is able to air it out a bit. I'm not predicting an epic blowout, but this is one of those games where you look up and Michigan is always comfortably winning despite your random dropped ball or missed block.

Comments

viewfromalbany

September 3rd, 2018 at 4:30 PM ^

As always, very insightful.

One thought on our defense - 3rd down strategy. If we successfully limit teams on 1st & 2nd down & teams face 3rd & long, should we not use more zone coverage & protect against 1) crossing patterns / pick plays & 2) QB escapes from the pocket.

Very first series, ND hit a 3rd down crossing pattern.  Repeatedly, Wimbush escaped for big gains.  

NFL teams use this defensive strategy more often than not.

bronxblue

September 3rd, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^

It's not a bad idea, though I think that goes against Brown's defensive philosophy and, save for a couple of gains on those first drives and that late Wimbush conversion on 3rd and 18, Michigan had decent success booting ND off the field (7/15 on 3rd down).  Zone works in keeping the short stuff covered, but Notre Dame's passing offense is based heavily on longer throws downfield, and so that puts a lot of pressure on Winovich and Gary to create pressure on the edges or else Wimbush is going to have all day to wait for a receiver to get open.

What I noticed in the second half was that Michigan got better about keeping a linebacker sorta-spying on Wimbush, which limited his ability to scramble once the pocket broke down.  My guess is we'll see more of that if guys like McSorley or Lewerke can generate as much success with their feet as this game.

Don

September 3rd, 2018 at 6:31 PM ^

"so that puts a lot of pressure on Winovich and Gary to create pressure on the edges"

I've been watching talented Michigan DEs put edge pressure on opposing QBs for 40 years but just fall short of getting there in time to prevent a throw or knock it down, and that's in part because we've rarely had a guy who could generate an inside rush on his own on at least an occasional basis. Hurst could do that consistently and reliably. I suspect we're going to learn that much of the hype about Dwumfour being a serviceable replacement for Hurst is just that, and that's not a knock on him. He's following in the footsteps of one of the best DL to play in Michigan history.

bronxblue

September 3rd, 2018 at 9:17 PM ^

But I think serviceable would be fine.  It was surprising that both Mone and Marshall got decent snaps in this game.  I assume that was a call by Harbaugh to get some bigger guys up front on the road, but I think that hurt early on and allowed ND to get into a rhythm with Wimbush running the ball.  My hope is that in the coming week him and Solomon get the bulk of the snaps and establish some consistency inside.  I agree about there being issues at the edges when a QB can step into a collapsing pocket, but Notre Dame only gave up 2 sacks a game, on average, last year.  Yes they lost two great offensive lineman, but Wimbush also had a big part in that and there were a number of times where a slower QB would have been caught up.  And overall, Michigan picked up 7 TFLs, which is a pretty good number and above ND's national average from last year.  

Again, this wasn't a great game.  But if this was a "bad" defensive performance by Michigan, then there are going to be a lot of teams struggling to move the ball this year.

bronxblue

September 3rd, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^

It's not great, but we're talking about a single game here.  Notre Dame gave up virtually the same percentage (6/13), and most people thought their defense was pretty stout.  Also, those 3rd-down conversions were bunched together in those first two drives; 3/3 then 4/11 the rest of the way, including three by penalty.  

They played the percentages fine.  Wimbush made some plays and Michigan made a couple of mistakes, but like, MSU gave up 7/13 and PSU gave up 6/16 on 3rd down against far worse teams and I doubt those percentages will remain true for the year.

charblue.

September 3rd, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^

In real time, while watching the game, I got the feeling that most of ND's early scores were the result of dumb luck. Wimbush throws a timing pass down the sideline out of the endzone and his receiver happens to run under it at the right time and then get banged to the ground by Metellus who is then promptly ejected for targeting. That was a 50 yard turnover. First, it wasn't the case that the receiver was wide open;  he wasn't, but everything went right for the Irish on that play and every other one it seemed, especially on  third down. Michigan couldn't get out of its own way on offense or defense in the first half.

The defense played up to its elite rep on two downs and then broke down on the get-off-the-field down. The deep throw to the 5'10 receiver in the end zone was a TD Jesus prayer answered when Hawkins who was in perfect position with Kinnel late to the party desperately trying to back up the play, offering no assistance on the pass break-up after the ball went through Hawkins' hands. And they went after Hawkins on the play. That was a scramble deep bomb too, not a picture-perfect pass.

Certainly, credit is due to ND putting the ball in the end zone when it had opportunities, but Wimbush is not a good passer. He is very elusive and effective manuevering around the pocket, but he was either late or lucky with some of his best throws, and most of the time under duress. 

Michigan played out of sync, got no calls and had every iffy call go against them. They were barely lucky to get a replay on a first down catch by DPJ in the second-half, that reminded me of the Ohio State crew and its ball-spotting. This was an ACC crew and it actually got intimidated by Harbaugh whose ranting enabled Michigan to get a ridiculous PI call late on a duck pass thrown by McCafferty after Patterson went out for an IV.

From my perspective, Michigan's play was also deeply affected by the humid conditions, which others have barely mentioned as a factor in why the defense or offense might have been sluggish and ineffective. Not saying you shouldn't play through something that is a condition for both teams, just saying it appeared a factor in the level of play.

This doesn't alter the gripes about play-calling and time management. But in my book, you run meat and potato plays in order to build off of them, and if they don't work, it's hard to run more exotics that depend on similar looks and proper execution. It was execution mistakes, missed assignments along the line that ruined Michigan's scoring opportunities, which should have led to 9 points or more. That is why Washington lost to Auburn in a neutral site game, that wasn't unlike what transpired in South Bend. And that outcome was regarded as having the more crucial win-loss impact than Michigan losing to the Irish.

I was disappointed with our play and losing just like everyone else. But the sky isn't falling. I saw what other teams did on their opening day, and both MSU and Penn State were on the ropes in the final minute of their games all with turnovers ending their opponents chances as was the case with Michigan. The road teams all lost in those situations. Even OSU gave up 31 points in victory.

So, three major Big East contenders all gave up 30 points or more in what were regarded as cupcake openers. And we gave up 24 and only 3 in the second half after getting mostly torched early. Yeah, losing sucks, and it really sucks when everyone is thinking this is our year; spirits and optimism is sky-high and then you step in a hole right off the bat. But before we collectively give up, let's see what the boys are made of, and whether Harbaugh has got the right stuff to fix things. It's a long season. And you don't win the Big Ten or a playoff spot on Labor Day.

 

 

bronxblue

September 3rd, 2018 at 5:00 PM ^

I largely agree.  The weather sucked, Wimbush played above his head in that first quarter (even ND fans online said that), and Michigan got screwed up a couple of bad breaks and poor play.  In particular, Wimbush was able to piece together a bunch of his good throws on those couple of scoring drives; had he spread them out a bit more then you'd have probably seen fewer scores and more 25-ish yard drives end in punts.  Again, counter-factuals and all that, but sometimes you are good enough to get lucky.

Also, I don't like the prevailing argument around here that being cautiously optimistic makes you a homer.  Michigan didn't play great, but MSU and PSU struggled mightily against far worse teams, at home, and exposed just as many weaknesses as Michigan did.  And other teams in the conference didn't bathe themselves in glory; NW had a stout defense but looked pretty limited offensively, and that feels a bit more tractable the more I think about it.

Cc2010

September 3rd, 2018 at 9:03 PM ^

So nice to read a clearly thought out post instead of the fire Harbaugh drivel.  Funny how the same people calling for Beileins head a couple years ago now are saying things like how.much better he is than Harbaugh.  These are great coaches and the team is very much improved offensively.  

Merlin.64

September 3rd, 2018 at 5:08 PM ^

Thoughtful and balanced analysis. Thank you.

We were not as bad as the nay-sayers insist; nor were we the only team to struggle in the first week. Much of the negativity comes from disappointed hopes over the past few years. Those with longer experience will remember that teams do recover from a setback .

I admit that my optimism is probably shaped by nostalgic personal memories. I was a student at UM in 1964 when they bounced back from a disappointing loss to Purdue--with a QB named Griese--to finish the season 9-1, defeat MSU and OSU away, overwhelm Oregon State in the Rose Bowl (all 3 teams were ranked in the top 10), and finally rank 4th nationally. And that happened the year after a losing season.

Of course they did have good linemen, but so does this team on the defensive side of the ball, and the Oline should make progress. And they had a mobile QB, but Shea doesn't look too bad.

PSU recovered in 2016. So can we. Go Blue!

Footnote: UM had lost six straight games to the Spartans before 1964.

SD Larry

September 3rd, 2018 at 5:44 PM ^

Well written and insightful again bronxblue.  Always enjoy your takes.   Would just add it looked like we did not come prepared with a two minute or hurry up offense, and maybe some of that was  related to Shea's cramping, but was for a big road game like that it was disappointing, though I appreciate our guys never quit and outplayed ND in second half.  

bronxblue

September 3rd, 2018 at 6:28 PM ^

I noticed that as well about the offense's urgency, but I also think some of that had to do with the new pieces on offense playing on the road at night.  My guess is the focus was on getting the plays out moreso than getting them out fast, and while that's not great it's at least a plan I can understand.

You Only Live Twice

September 3rd, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^

Each year I've noticed your writing becomes a little more fine-tuned.  This was one of your best "Best and Worst" columns yet.  Packed with succinct analysis and cultural references, I never would have dreamed of football critique with AP history.  Michigan Difference!

Listen, I never sleep well after a loss.  Difficult falling asleep, wake up multiple times and each time the outcome is the same.  This is because of a football loss.  I can't even wrap my head around how much sleep I would lose if Michigan was a "felony-magnet" state/land grant school with a legacy of child molestation, sexual assault, wife-beating and overt academic fraud and payola. How do their fans sleep at night, are the wins worth it?

I would rather lose sleep over the football loss, and worry about repairing the on field issues.

 

bronxblue

September 4th, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^

Thanks for the positive feedback.  

I mentioned this last week, but a lot has changed in my life since I started to write this diary series, and over the years I've come to the realization that this should ultimately be a form of entertainment, and so I try to not get too attached anymore to the trials and tribulations of Michigan sports.  I don't like to see them lose, but there are bigger issues in the world than a 7-point loss to ND, and I'd rather have those than, say, keep a coach around who enabled a violent man to beat up his wife for years because he's the grandson of a guy who gave you a job.

MinWhisky

September 4th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^

My first posting since the format change.  I always enjoy reading your thoughtful comments.  Maybe I missed it in your analysis, but what struck me about the ND game was the apparent lack of an offensive game plan that was built on the strengths of our offense, protected its weaknesses, and took advantage of the opponent's tendencies.  Other teams (e.g. MSU) see to be able to do that against us on a regular basis.  I'm not a football expert but, for example, I thought rolling SP to the right (away from out LT) on RPOs, with an occasional reverse run to the LT side, would have been effective at slowing down their rush, giving SP more time to make a decision, and minimize the need for good LT play.

bronxblue

September 4th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^

I think they tried that to an extent, but I also think they had a gameplan that didn't include being down 14 after 1 offensive series, and then the tackles were just really, truly bad at times.  But the offense did move the ball a bit; their first two trips inside the 10 yard line only netted them 3 points, and that'll screw you up regardless of gameplan.

The Man Down T…

September 4th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^

"It's closer because Winovich was curving around a tackle and took 1-ish step after Wimbush got rid of the ball, but you can't let that happen on third down regardless. "

Not really close.  He had 2 full steps and then some.  It was inexcusable.  He's a senior and has to know to pull up on that.  Both he and McCray were playing hyper and needed to calm the hell down.  They made way too many mental mistakes early on for jr/sr leadership

1VaBlue1

September 4th, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^

No matter whether it was 1.5 or 2 full steps - Chase leveled the crown of his helmet into the direct middle of Wimbush's back.  I'd have called that, too...  KEEP THE CROWN OF YOUR HELMET AWAY FROM OTHER PEOPLE!!!!!!

We should all be happy that he wasn't called for targeting - which the rule book clearly states is mandatory when the crown of the helmet is the lead...  I'll give the referee the benefit on that one.

bronxblue

September 4th, 2018 at 4:02 PM ^

I guess I've seen so many of those tackles not get called that I don't assume anymore what is roughing the passer or not.  Hell, ND threw his forearm directly at McKeon's head later on in the half and nothing came of that.  

I agree they were playing a bit hyper, but no more than anyone else out there.

Rabbit21

September 4th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^

Some replies:

1.  I don't give two shits about what Michigan does to WMU, it tells me nothing about the rest of the season and frankly, doesn't move my needle one way or another unless they get on the struggle bus again.  Beating bad teams is all Harbaugh has been able to do since Iowa '16 and he needs to do something more than that for people to get back on the bus.  In other words, don't expect that anyone is going to move off of their anger due to that.  But I like that you tried to end on a positive note.

2.  The team absolutely has a "loser's mentality: and the program as a whole has lost that special sauce.  There's a reason all 50/50 balls go against Michigan and it's down to a mentality that infects the program and will continue to infect the program until someone somewhere makes plays consitently.  And there is no-one on the roster to do that.  The thing is that this has become learned behavior and learned expectation that the worst will happen as well as no-one on the roster who wants to step up and win the moment.  Until Michigan gets a player who is willing to do that, then Michigan will continually be stuck here.  You don't continually lose 50/50 balls in a world where there is the law of averages, unless you have a roster full of good role players who don;t make plays.

Bad timing and all that, but this was the LAST thing the team needed after the bowl game and this is what we got.  It's all bullshit, it feels like they spent the offseason literally lighting practice plans on fire and as much as I see you trying to be positive, at some point there is a reason a 'loser's mentality" narrative develops and that's because Michigan absolutely has one.  If the defense consistently makes stops in winning time, if the 50/50 balls go Michigan's way every once in a while, if someone on offense makes a big play when one's needed, I'll start thinking things have changes but it's going to have to happen over the course of a couple of years before I believe Michigan is a program that one can believe in again.   

J.

September 4th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^

This "loser's mentality" / "make plays" drivel is nonsense and the laziest of "analysis."  Many of these players came from top high school teams, where they won a lot of big games.  They didn't just forget how to do it.

People look for patterns where none exist, and then they invent stories to explain these patterns.  That's all this is.  Michigan lost because Notre Dame was better (especially in the first quarter), playing at home, and because Michigan got unlucky.  They did not lose because Notre Dame "knew how to win" and Michigan didn't.

Change the outcome of three plays in this game, and Michigan wins: the late hit by Winovich (4 points), the 16-yard sack to get out of field goal range (3 points), and the dropped field goal snap (3 points).  Two out of the three and the game would have gone into overtime, where Michigan had been the better team for the entirety of the second half.

It sucks that it didn't turn out this way, but this isn't the requiem for the team, even if Brian appears to have abandoned all hope.

Michigan performed better against Notre Dame than OSU did against Virginia Tech in their national championship year.

Gameboy

September 4th, 2018 at 2:44 PM ^

I wonder what is going to happen to all the reasonable folks on this site this year. Looks like the loonies are taking over and Brian is to apathetic to care. I keep saying that we can be SIGNIFICANTLY better than last year and still finish with the same record and I don't think people understand that. The offense actually looked better than what I expected as QB and WR look much better than last year. I expect offense to continue to improve and Patterson to replicate what Rudock was able to do. The only question is whether or not the tackles will get better enough for that to matter. This is going to be a long year...

bronxblue

September 4th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^

The loonies will likely abandon the site sooner than you think.  And honestly, at this point I sort of ignore anyone who created an account in the past 6 months, as more times than not it's people primed to complain.

Brian has definitely given off a vibe of "not THIS again", which is fine because it's his site, but doesn't tamp down the crazies and makes this place a less hospitable place than it should be.  Listening to the podcast this morning, it was funny to hear Dave and Seth say "it's not that bad" and Brian be like "I'm sorta done".  I assume some of that is due to simply being immersed in this shit as your job; I can take a week off any nothing happens to me.  If Brian stopped talking about football, he would lose revenue.  But what I don't look forward to is if they beat, say, MSU, PSU, or Wisconsin, there will likely be some revisionist history BS around these parts and I'm not looking forward to that.  Because the only thing worse around here than a Michigan loss is the smugness that comes with a Michigan win.

MonkeyMan

September 4th, 2018 at 7:41 PM ^

"The loonies will likely abandon the site sooner than you think" 

I might be wrong- but it seems the "optimists" smear critics with negative labels far more than the reverse. And "optimists" seem to just assume that critics aren't true fans more than the reverse.

Is there something about being an "optimist" that makes a person engage in dirty fighting, smearing and personal attacks more than critics do? Most of the critics seem to attack the argument, most of the "optimists" seem to attack the person making the argument and engage in lots of propaganda techniques.

Can't we just all be civil and respectful of views that differ from ours without the black ops tactics?

bronxblue

September 4th, 2018 at 10:57 PM ^

I guess we've run into different people around here then.  Whole lotta people calling players soft and weak and how everything is unacceptable.  It's all proclamations, but to some I guess those are arguments.  

Optimists are wrong as often as they are right, but the alternative is to show up and expect the worst, bask in the best, and always feel you're better than everyone else because you "say it like it is."  

Goggles Paisano

September 4th, 2018 at 6:45 PM ^

Good stuff as always bb.  For the first time in my life as a Michigan Fan, I came away very disappointed after last year's bowl game with how unprepared we were to play that football game.  I said after that game that I would no longer have any expectation for this program until I actually see it on the field.  Well, after a long summer of "hype" I bought into it and was fully expecting a great performance at ND.  I came away from this game feeling a bit like a chump.  I felt again that we were unprepared (not to the level of the bowl game) in this game.  Our lack of urgency in the 4th qtr while we chew up valuable clock by huddling and then spending just as much time snapping the ball.  All of the stupid big penalties to keep drives going.  Chris Evans not getting a touch in the 1st half and only 2 in the game.  That is inexcusable given the fact that their DL was coming at us all game (screen game to Evans would have slowed that rush).  Giving up a 3rd and 18 on a fucking QB draw.  Really?  Everyone knew that was coming.  Our offense is archaic and we look very slow. It will strike fear into no one. The fact that we flat out cannot block is so discouraging for the outlook of this season.  I don't ever recall having a worse collective performance from both Tackles.  If I'm honest with myself, my huge (B1G title and CFP spot) expectations were crushed after this game.  My excitement level for the rest of the season is nothing more than "meh".  Just being honest.  

We will beat the piss out of WMU and SMU as both are terrible.  I assume we have enough to get past NW and Neb and then we shall see how good we are when we play Wisc.  So, until that game, I will make no more judgments of this team.  If we can learn how to get good OT play, we have a shot.  If not, we likely aren't getting past any of the big boys.  

jsquigg

September 4th, 2018 at 10:17 PM ^

This game recap brought to mind something I hadn't thought about: You seem to be suggesting that Mayfield and Hudson shouldn't play and that Mayfield should get a RS.  I've heard the logic of RS linemen, but given the situation M find themselves in, wouldn't it be better to let the younger more talented player grow on the field?  I'm just not sure how much more we're going to see Runyan and JBB improve in pass pro.  Regardless, just getting the line to averageish would make a world of difference.  And good post as always btw.

bronxblue

September 4th, 2018 at 11:02 PM ^

Thanks.

I'm not a dogmatic "redshirt everyone" if they seem ready and able to compete.  Like, I sort of wished they had gone with Ruiz last year earlier, especially when it was clear that Kugler just wasn't going to be able to hold up.  But neither Mayfield nor Hayes are prototypically sized or particularly well-versed at playing tackle in college; I know Mayfield was mostly a TE in HS and I believe Hayes was as well.  So you've got guys who still need to bulk up, learn technique, and you're throwing them onto a line that already has issues.  I'd rather have a 5th year out of both than a first year where they learn on the job.  They'll get their 4 games, I hope, before getting a redshirt, but to me the biggest problem Michigan has had with the line is they never have consistent depth, and getting a 5-year program going with lineman is, to my eyes, better than the current 4-years-and-out system.  Like, this team would be demonstrably better off with a 5th year of Mason Cole, not the mediocre run they got out of him during Hoke's final year.

Steve-a-wolverine-o

September 5th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^

My friend who is an Oregon State fan wanted to make a bet whether Michigan can put up as many points on OSU as they did. Didn’t take it. I offered up an alternative bet, can Michigan hold them to less than 77!  Jeez.