Best: Hard to Feel Bad

Northwestern seems like the type of program I SHOULD root for. You may quibble about the relative excellence of their academics, but it's a damn-fine school that actually seems to care about the "student" part of student-athlete. Pat Fitzgerald is the hometown boy who was a great college player and, once he decided to get into coaching, stepped into a tough spot after Randy Walker's unexpected death to bring some stability to the Wildcats. Over the years, he turned them into a perfectly competent P5 program that wins games at a far greater rate than their historical performance. Plus, with a few scattered exceptions, he's kept the program pretty clean while getting guys to the NFL at a solid rate. He's not perfect, but he seems like a decent guy and Northwestern, while sometimes boring as dirt to watch, still "feels" like a more fun program than most of it's Western division brethren.

And yet...this is the image that pops in my head whenever I hear his name.

 

For those of you who don't know, that's Fitzgerald excitedly celebrating a personal foul by Michigan on the sideline that set up what looked like Northwestern's go-ahead scoring drive in 2012. Now, I'm sure some people would argue, like Fitzgerald did, that he was celebrating the chance for his team to win the game, the break that doesn't always come your way, and as a way to motivate his players a bit. That's bullshit, but he's a football coach so it comes with the territory. And I get that, organically, that's a response one would have in that context; you've got a chance to win a game against a big-time "rival" at their place, and honestly I'd rather guys be genuinely excited for their team than the Saban/Meyer veneer of fart-smelling annoyance.

Now dear reader, if you're now asking yourself "wait, I remember something else memorable from that game", you are 100% correct.

And that's always been the dichotomy when Michigan plays Northwestern; Northwestern gets its hopes up, maybe starts celebrating a bit too early, and then whatever deal was made with a deity comes due and Michigan pulls out the win. Don't believe me? Michigan has played NW 9 times since Fitzgerald took over as head coach; over that period, Michigan has won 8 of those 9 games but, with the exception of a 38-0 ham-blasting during Harbaugh's first year, the games have usually been 1-score games to the bitter end, including the infamous M00N game, the aforementioned premature jig game, and the first Fan Endurance game. When Michigan and Northwestern meet on the football field, they are more likely than not going to play a stupid game that defies logic and good taste, ending in the victor (usually Michigan) sprinting for the exit, swearing they'll never do THAT again, and a week later forgetting it all happened and agreeing to give it another go. Oh, and if you look hard enough, there's usually a pretty good chance you'll see a guy who's disappointed again.

Best: Road Warriors

And this game was no different than any of those. Northwestern, a team that had recently lost their starting RB to early retirement due to cervical stenosis and were still breaking back in their starting QB Clayton Thorson after an ACL injury, were virtually unstoppable on their first three drives, scoring 2 TDs and a FG on drives of 56, 37, and 52 yards over 25 plays. Helped in no small part to the bye week, the Wildcats whipped out a number of packages and plays that clearly caught Michigan's defense off-guard, which combined with some uncharacteristically poor tackling and coverage led to some big plays. The lowlight was a WR screen that was dead to rights 5 yards behind the line turning into first-and-goal after a 36-yard, 78 broken-tackles pickup. The Wildcats never got going on the ground (excising sacks, NW finished with 67 yards on 29 carries, a 2.3 ypc average), but they used misdirection and the threat of the run early on to open up passing windows for Thorson, and he completed the first 8 passes he threw for 88 yards and a TD. When given time, you could see why NFL scouts thought he'd be a viable NFL QB, and since we live in a world where a Rutgers QB threw for over 400 yards and 3 TDs against a semi-recent Michigan defense, all bets were off that Michigan could survive letting a solid QB get into rhythm.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan couldn't do anything right. Their first 2 drives were 6 plays for 0 yards, as NW expertly bracketed Michigan's receivers while consistently getting some degree of pressure with their front 4, or more appropriately 3 guys and the Gaz. Him and Paddy Fisher each finished the day with 6 tackles, including a couple of "why didn't anyone block him?" tackles where Michigan would, say, ask Michael Onwenu to beat one of them to a hole, with entirely predictable results. And even when Michigan did start getting going on their third drive, they'd drop a pass, fail to stretch for a first down, or get smote again by the crooked blue line. NW tacked on another TD after the turnover to go up 17-0, and at that point all you could see and hear were people tripping over themselves to point out Michigan's struggles on the road, how (rightfully) terrible they looked on both sides of the ball, and how the past couple of weeks probably said more about the quality of opponent than any maturation by Michigan since Notre Dame. And it wasn't just on the scoreboard; Northwestern had a 145 yards of offense to Michigan's 21, were consistently getting pressure on the QB while bottling up the running game (7 yards rushing on 6 carries), and seemingly had "figured out" Michigan's schemes.

But this is a Northwestern game against Michigan, which means at no point should anyone be comfortable with the status quo. After NW's score, Michigan's offense came alive behind Higdon's running and some great passing by Patterson. In 7 plays, Michigan marched down the field 80 yards to get on the board. Perhaps as a preview of things to come, NW's next drive went 8 plays, 11 yards, ending with Kwity Paye sacking Thorson. Their next drive, with Hudson back on the field after his suspension for targeting last week, had Chase Winovich destroyed Thorson and at that point it was clear Michigan had downloaded NW's offense and wasn't going to give much else up (of their 63 offensive plays, Michigan recorded a TFL on 10 of them). And that's a hallmark of Don Brown defenses, where even if you get lucky once or twice he figures you out soon enough and deploys a counter; all of a sudden, those weeks of planning are leading to your QB pulling bits of lineman out of his teeth. Like the 2016 MSU game, where the Spartans rolled out a bunch of stuff that confused Michigan for a drive or two but clearly didn't have anything else up their sleeves, Michigan proceeded to choke the life out of NW for basically the rest of the game. Despite finishing the first half with 145 yards of total offense, NW closed this game with 202 yards total, 29 of which came on their last drive with 34 seconds and 85 yards to go. Thorson was 10/14 a halftime, but finished the game 16 of 27, again with 3 of those completions on that semi-meaningless last drive.

And Michigan's offense just kept pecking away at Northwestern. To their credit the Wildcats found ways to keep Michigan out of the endzone despite giving up drives of 42, 69, and 56 yards. Michigan kept settling for short field goals, and while I understand the desire to score something when it was clear your defense was locking NW down, it still felt like Michigan was leaving points on the field. Patterson, after a rough start to the game, came alive in the second half, throwing for 135 yards on 8/12 passing while running for a couple of first downs, consistently throwing the ball into tight windows (including a couple to Gentry on the final scoring drive), and generally playing like the elite talent he was touted upon his arrival. For the first time maybe since the second half of Rudock's season, the QB position felt like an actual weapon in this offense, not just a piece of somewhat-janky machine, and gives me renewed hope that Michigan can win on the road against conference opponents even if the rest of the team struggles for times.

Because make no mistake about it - to come back after being down 17 points against a good defense (31st in S&P+) on the road is a hell of a win. Michigan has played two really solid defenses on the road (ND is #5), and in both looked like they figured them out as the game progressed; the only difference is Michigan didn't run out of time against NW. Yes I'm a homer and take this with a massive grain of salt, but this offense honestly gets better as the game progresses, which doesn't feel like something I've seen out of Michigan consistently under Harbaugh before this season. Yes, there were pockets of it here or there, but never this consistently. To that point, Michigan has scored 41 points in 5 1st quarters this year; they've been shut out 3 times over that span. Over the rest of the games (15 quarters), they've only been shut out once while scoring 146 points.

Best: I'll Be Honest, Nothing's Gonna Beat "Dual Threet"

I wish I had some witty nickname for Shea Patterson, because in this game he absolutely played like a 5* talent, even if his stat line remains unremarkable. I play in a college fantasy football league, and one of the members has been touting Patterson as a gamer since the year started, even though it's pretty clear at this point that Patterson as a QB in real life is WAY more valuable than him as a fantasy asset (he's current ranked 39th in terms of fantasy value for QBs, behind such luminaries as Jake Bentley, Brian Lewerke, and someone called Peyton Ramsey who Al Borges will undoubtedly destroy at IU). Still, you watch Patterson out there and you see why he was such a coveted player coming out of high school. Too often, you see people talk about a guy's arm strength and it breaks down to how far they can throw the ball. But with few exceptions, being able to launch a ball isn't nearly as valuable as being able to get the ball downfield into spots where only your guy can catch it. And that's a skill Patterson has consistently showcased while at Michigan. On Michigan's last drive, he rifled balls to Gentry between defenders with seemingly little setup. That's real arm strength coupled with accuracy, and that's why a guy who lacks prototypical size is so highly regarded by NFL scouts.

Plus, Patterson also started to look more comfortable running the ball when the defenses crashed down, or when the pocket started breaking down and lanes appeared. Even without a couple of big runs negated by both real and imaginary holding calls (more on that later), he still rushed the ball 7 times for 31 yards, including 3 first downs. Perhaps his biggest one came on that final drive, where he scrambled out of the pocket and picked up a crucial first down. He's never going to be a "true" dual threat runner, but he's still more than capable of making teams pay if they give him space and is also so accurate downfield that you can tell guys are slow to leave their spots when he's moving around. It always felt like he was sandbagging on the ground a bit against the bad teams on the schedule, not taking needless hits against the likes of Nebraska or SMU. But when it was necessary, Patterson was able to move the ball effectively on the ground and, you hope, show another facet for this offense against some of the better teams on the schedule.

I'll admit to being skeptical of Patterson's fit in this offense coming into the year; he had struggled at Ole Miss when facing the better defenses on the schedule, and seemingly played like a rich man's Tate Forcier in terms of unpredictable plays. But thus far, Patterson has played well within the offense while still pushing the pieces into order; he's not a game manager but he's also playing within the strictures of the overall gameplan. Still, games like this hint at his potential to carry the team when necessary, and that's an assurance that has been missing around the team, it seems, for some time.

Best: Higdon Mashing

Michigan's offense got out of reverse the minute they started to give the ball to Higdon consistently. On the day he finished with 115 yards on 30 carries and 2 TDs, and 5 of those carries came when Michigan was trying to burn the clock down after taking the lead. Throw out those runs and he had 102 yards on 25 carries, a healthy 4.0 ypc against a stout NW run defense that hadn't given up 100 yards rushing to a guy all year. And for the season, he's emerged as one of the most dynamic backs in the conference, leading it in runs of 30+ yards and third overall in rushing despite not playing in one game; his 6.3 ypc is 5th in the league and the top amongst guys with his workload. Obviously this team will benefit from Evans getting healthy, but going forward it definitely feels like Higdon should be receiving the lion's share of the carries, especially if he can start getting open on some of those screens and wheel routes he was able to take advantage of last year. He looks like a lead back that Michigan can rely on going forward, and this offense becomes immensely more dangerous when it can consistently get 4-5 yards a carry without scheming for it.

Worst: The First Quarter Defense

For lack of a better word, Michigan just seemed a bit lost out there to start the game. The field definitely looked unstable, NW clearly had used their bye week to cook up some different looks, and the absence of Hudson was something it felt NW tried to take advantage of, but still Michigan was worked up and down the field to start. Yes, it felt like smoke and mirrors, absolutely; Thorson wasn't going to complete 90% of his passes on the day, and his longer completions featured significant YAC. Still, it does seem like when Michigan gets off to these slow defensive starts, they get gashed significantly and for maximum pain. Swap one or both of those TDs for short FGs and this feels like less of an issue. But Michigan's offense still doesn't seem ready to get into boat races with teams down multiple scores, and against teams like PSU, MSU, Wisconsin, and OSU they can't spot those teams 14+ points and hope they'll claw their way back in. Even against Nebraska last week, they got a bit lucky the Cornhuskers didn't score at least 1 TD in that first quarter.

At the same time, a lot of these breakdowns feel like one-off occurences; Wimbush short-arming a ball that bounces into his receivers hands, that screen by NW that should have been stopped behind the line, sometimes you just get a bad break and due to some clustering it looks more like an issue than it is. Still, here's hoping Michigan has suffered through their share of 1st-quarter mishaps.

Best: New Faces on Defense

Even before Rashan Gary left the game for a series due to an injury, you started to see Michigan rotate through a couple of guys along the defensive line, chief among them Kwity Paye. On the day he finished with 2 sacks for 22 yards, another hurry, and 2 more solo tackles. Coming out of Rhode Island as the state's only ranked recruit, the talk was that he had the speed and power combo you wanted to see in an end but there would be bulking and refinement process that would likely keep him off the field for a year or two. And yet, he played in 9 games last year and has seen his involvement in the rotation increase every game this year. Joining him on the fast track is Josh Uche, who was a terror going after the quarterback and picked up 2 sacks of his own. While Winovich remains the gold standard for terrifying defensive ends (he led the team with 9 tackles, 3 TFLs including a sack), there is depth along the line that Michigan will need against some of the teams coming up soon. It's good to see them maturing as expected for that role.

Worst: It's Not Just You

Due to a confluence of events that isn't relevant to the story, I wound up attending the Boston College - Temple game on Saturday at Alumni Field on the BC campus. I'm not sure if it was on anything more national than ESPN3/ACCDN/Taxi TV, but it was a pretty good game. I went with my daughter, we met some friends with their kids, and due to someone vomiting on the seats just in front of us, we had LOTS of room around us for the under-5 set to run around and enjoy. And the game itself was pretty exciting; there were multiple long TD runs, a kickoff-fumble-TD combo, and even some razzle-dazzle. AJ Dillon was efficient in the first half (146 yards, 2 TDs) before getting hurt, Temple's Armstead picked up 4 TDs running the ball, and it just felt like P5 football with just enough atmosphere to keep it interesting during the inevitable lulls.

Oh, and were their lulls. I know Brian and co. have discussed just how long and disjointed these games have become, what with the ubiqutious TD-commercial-kickoff-commercial package, the innumerable replays and reviews, and the little red hat guy wandering onto the field any time it threatens to get interesting. But I always sort of assumed that was unique to big-name programs; even Michigan against a tomato can is still capital-M Michigan on your screen, which means advertisers will want to get their products in front of this extremely well-to-do fanbase and media companies will clamber for the eyeballs of these ever more fickle television viewers. No way that a team with limited national exposure, coming off a beating by previosuly-winless Purdue, would warrant much in the way of needless stoppages. Anaologous to the tree falling in the woods, nobody except the diehards (and a bunch of parents on campus for "Parents Weekend", which apparently entailed a copious number of boat shoes, branded polos, and Catholic parents realizing that lower-case "jesuit" doesn't come close to rivaling "COLLEGE" in how their children have changed since high school) were there to watch BC play Temple, so why subject them to any more than the bare necessities to get through the game?

Instead, a game that featured 80 points and almost 900 total yards of offense dragged along, hindered in no small part by 5 (!) personal fouls called, including 3(!!) leading ejections for targeting (!!!). And I'll be honest, even as someone who thinks football is probably a bit too violent for its own good and is pro anything that protects the health of players, the sheer number of calls were excessive. There was one ejection that absolutely should have occurred; the Temple defender hit the BC back squarely in the head as he was already being tackled. The other 2 were, frankly, part and parcel of playing football. And as with Michigan being on the wrong end of the random number generator that apparently governs these situations, nobody seemed to know how to respond. Steve Addazio, one-time possible Michigan HC candidate, BC's current coach, and future Sgt. Slaughter cosplayer, at one point just stared at a referee during a review, then back at his player, then back at the referee and threw his hands up. Because the game really isn't that much safer because of these penalties; at one point AJ Dillon popped out a mass of humanity and launched himself seemingly right into the head of a safety and nothing came of it because, well, that's football. And at some point, you're asking everyone involved to accept that it's a violent sport played by unpaid college students, and these reviews and penalties feel like a solution in search of a fixable problem. Because these attempts to make the game "safer" for the players by addressing one particular type of offense that seemingly includes a mens rea component and happens in real-time doesn't feel enlightened; it feels much more like a CYA for future liability, to cut down on a part of the game that has recently gone out of favor with the public.

But anyway, part of me enjoyed attending the game in person because there truly is a different atmosphere live than on television; the students, the electricty in the stadium, the sight-lines, all of it can be as organic and "real" as you can imagine. But all that realness includes a processions of media timeouts, commercials, and delays. And I'll be honest, for all the talk about baseball losing younger fans because of inconvenient times and laborious games, football isn't too far behind in that regard.

Quick Hits

• Zach Gentry is starting to emerge as a preferred downfield target for Patterson. He's clearly comfortable with getting the ball downfield to him in tight windows, and at his height he's never fully covered. He was Pattersons go-to option on that final scoring drive, which was telling. Also, credit to Eubanks for pulling in a couple of big gains; Michigan's got solid receiving options at TE, and if they can deploy them without hurting the running game that's a huge boon in this team's creativity.
• That phantom holding penalty was...whatever. It was but one in a series of bad calls. Like I said last week, shitty calls in blowouts will also happen in close games, and it nearly cost Michigan a win. Runyan's hold on Patterson's first big run felt dubious, but at least it was on a player sorta blocking a defender. Conversely, Higdon getting called for holding when tackled is insane and should not go unpunished, though it undobutedly will. Gary getting hit for hands to the face when being dragged down was also egregious, as was Winovich being tackled with no call on NW's last drive of the game. I've come to accept that Michigan will simply not be given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to things like holding, but there is no way someone could watch that game and come to the conclusion that Michigan deserved 11 penalties for 100 yards while NW finished with 2 for 25.
• I thought the offensive line held up decently against NW's pass rush. They gave up that sack early on, but as the game proceeded Patterson had time in the pocket to work through his progressions, and giving up only 5 TFLs for 13 yards isn't bad by any stretch. I'm not quite ready to crown them "fine", but maybe Runyan really did just have a terrible game against ND and he's a perfectly competent tackle. Stranger things have happened.
  I'd like to add that Ruiz and Patterson still seem to be working out some kinks, and I'm not sure about the logic of asking guys like Onwenu and Bredeson to beat the Gaz to spots; it seemed that was just leading NW to the ball carrier for stops. My guess is the Down G is going to go back into the garage for a bit, unless Maryland shows it simply can't stop it.
• I'm interested to see how Kemp, Mone, and Dwumfour grade out. NW had no success running inside, and if that rotation is rounding into shape I'm much more comfortable about the defense as a whole as teams like Wisconsin and PSU come to town.

Next Week: Bring on the Turtles

Maryland is 3-1, with a big win over Texas that looks better each week and a loss to Temple that was...fine. D.J. Durkin remains suspended and Matt Canada has steered the ship reasonably well in his absence. But Michigan is a far different beast than they've played this year; Texas had a similar defense but is a significantly worse offense than Michigan's (80th to 27th in S&P+). Per S&P+, Maryland is hanging around NW/Temple/Minnesota territory, and while that certainly isn't pushover territory they're basically a slightly better offense than NW with a proportionally-worse defense. It'll be a game, but provided Michigan doesn't look past them to Wisconsin this feels like a game the good guys pull away with in the second half.