Hey there everyone! Covid kind of took out publicized wrestle-offs for Michigan this year so we are into the season (3 matches at this point) below is my outlook for the season in place of a preview. Feel free to agree, disagree or share your opinions.

 

125: Dylan Ragusin. Ragusin really announced his presence this off-season by winning a string of impressive bouts on his way to a Senior Nationals Runner-Up finish (losing to Vito Arujau). On his path to the finals Ragusin defeated former NCAA Champion and National team member Darian Cruz (7-6) and steamrolled former All-American Sean Russell (16-5). All the same it was a bit of a shock when Ragusin went out to meet Rutgers Nic Aguilar in the first dual of the season. 61 seconds later I’d say that shock was alleviated. Since that opener Ragusin has notched another win against a top 15 ranked wrestler, taking out Indana’s Brock Hudkins 6-4. All in all Ragusin looks to be on track to finish on the podium come tournament time (both NCAA and B1G covid pending). Make no mistake though...this is Spencer Lee’s (Iowa) weight class and Ragusin will have to remain healthy to reach All-American status. Keep in mind some of the best true freshmen we have seen at Michigan, Coon and Parris, both having stellar initial seasons however both falling short of the podium in year one. On the other side of that freshman coin are M. Amine and L. Massa both of whom achieved All-American honors in their initial seasons.

 

Prediction: NCAA Qualifier, Blood-round knockout (falls just short of AA status)

 

133: Stevan Micic. Will he wrestle this year? This author says yes but that's really up to his health. Last time we saw Micic in a Michigan singlet he was taking 3rd place at NCAA’s sporting a hefty knee sleeve. Micic has qualified for the Olympics (Serbia) and quite honestly I would be surprised if that was not his central focus this year. If we do see Micic this year it will not be at full capacity of either the season or ability (again...Olympics and health). If healthy Micic is right up there in conversations for the national title this season. His biggest competition likely comes from within the B1G in Nick Suriano (also yet to compete this season due to Senior level competition, most recently in France), the last wrestler to defeat Micic in folkstyle. In his stead, Jack Medley has bumped up to hold down the fort and this is where my concerns start. Medley was a solid wrestler at 125 last season, but 133 is a different landscape, up a weight I am not so sure Medley’s style meshes well with the caliber of wrestler he will encounter. Having already gone through Rutgers (without Suriano), Indiana and Maryland, Medley has already dropped a bout to an unranked opponent and has yet to register a bonus win. Medley keeps it close in most cases but I am not sure if he has quite the same magic for pulling a victory out of nowhere up at 133. That's the minor concern, the major concern is the absence of Joey Silva on the listed roster. Whether here or at 141 Silva was likely to be a multi-year all american and his absence is a huge blow. There is no word on if this is a transfer situation or academics (last year the rumor mill was spinning about Silva’s struggle in the classroom).

 

Prediction: If Micic NCAA Champion, if Medley NCAA qualifier

 

141: Drew Mattin. Mattin has been the guy at 141, Drew that is. Make sure you don’t mistake Drew for his brother Cole who spent a lot of time in the line up at 141 last year. Mattin is a tough one to project at this point. He is a solid wrestler with a great motor. He has victories over some impressive wrestlers (Lizak, Schroder, Courtney, Piotrowski) but those were all at 125. He has a few wins this season against the bottom of the barrel of the B1G (Maryland and Indiana). He wrestled Sebastian Rivera (former AA and B1G champ at Northwestern, now at Rutgers) tough and barely gave up a major decision 8-0. I feel like this is a dartboard prediction given all the information. I will say this, the B1G is not forgiving at this weight class and the upper echelon of Eirman, Nick Lee and Red Jr, present major problems to Mattin who does not handle rapid pace well. I wouldn’t be shocked if he beat Eirman, as Eirman leaves the door open for an upset frequently. Mattin himself is a 2x NCAA qualifier posting identical 2-2 records each trip. I’m going to put my money on more of the same. Tough, solid, good but not great.

 

Prediction: NCAA qualifier with a 2-2 record

 

149: Kanen Storr. I flipped a coin. Not on who to put here at 149, Storr is the incumbent and qualified for NCAA’s last season, placed at Midlands (for the second time) and only lost one 2-0 match in B1G duals last year (to Lugo from Iowa). Storr has earned the spot for sure. I flipped the coin because that's what I do nearly every time Storr wrestles. Mattin, Storr and Lewan are the stretch in the lineup that I like to call the Russian Roulette Crew. There's one bullet in the chamber. It could hit anytime, which makes it a very dangerous and well known factor. All the other chambers shoot blanks though. Storr, Mattin (one might even include medley) and Lewan win the lion’s share of matches, and they are right there with just about everyone. Then again...they are right there with just about EVERYONE. Almost annoyingly so Storr will be in a 2 point match. Wrestling a top 5 opponent? 2 point match. Wrestling a solid upperclassmen or returning All-American? 2 point match. Wrestling a freshman that no one really knows? 2 point match. First match of the year? 4-2 2OT victory, latest match of the year? 5-2 victory over Indiana. The coin landed tails by the way. Which means saddle up for overtime folks!

 

Prediction: NCAA All-American, no higher than 5th.

 

157: Will Lewan. As stated above Lewan is another one of the Roulette Crew, but I’ll give Lewan some added credit. Lewan is the most exciting of the three previously discussed wrestlers. Lewan is a former Cadet World Champ, who grabbed every Michigan fan’s attention by promptly beating senior captain and returning All-American Alec Pantaleo in the Maize and Blue Intrasquad match. That match caused a frenzy of googles for the Illinois native. Pantaleo would win the match-up in the best 2 of 3 format and go on to achieve another All-American season. Lewan would redshirt and take over the reigns when Pantaleo had exhausted all eligibility. Then last season came and went and Covid took out any chance to see Lewan wrestle at NCAAs. I’m very eager to see Lewan wrestle Kaleb Young (Iowa) in a few weeks as that will be his first test of the season, also I believe Young cuts wayyy too much weight and the Wolverines will need Lewan to win if they have any hopes of a team title. Lewan has every capability to place at NCAAs this year but it will all depend on his draw, and which chamber Lewan has loaded up.

 

Prediction: NCAA All-American

 

165: Cameron Amine. This year’s edition of Freshmen Names of Note has produced Ragusin in the lightweight section and Cam Amine in the upper weights. Cam is a redshirt freshman that many clamored to be inserted into the line up last season. For good reason too, Amine is most definitely one of the 10 best wrestlers on the team already. With room to grow, it seems Amine’s trajectory is on pace with that of his cousin Myles who we will get to later. Amine has already amassed 3 victories on the season and fairly decisive victories at that. Much like everyone in the lineup, a big test awaits in the Iowa match when Amine will trot out to face off with Alex Marinelli. The main knock I have so far with Amine is his late match motor, and this is quite nitpicky, so for those of you reading this ready to log in and type “HES ONLY A FRESHMAN” or “it is wrestling, of course he is tired” I understand that, and I am taking that into account. Though Amine has done quite a bit of growing since, I have coached against him in high school. One of the very few blemishes on his record, we beat Cam with the following strategy: Weather the storm in the first, take our escape in the second, and bring the heat in the third. Amine has a tendency to “hang-on” in big matches, especially late. Going back to his senior season (as we did not get much air time with him last year) when he wrestled the highly ranked Facundo, if you see the box score Amine wins a barn burner in ultimate OT, but if you watch the match without your maize and blue glasses Amine stalled his butt off and literally clung to Facundo’s leg for the final half of the overtime period. Nevertheless a victory is a victory and as Michigan fans we all know bad calls happen. I am very excited that Amine is in the line up, I believe he has a bright future ahead, but looking at this season I just cannot bring myself to project a top 8 finish. Cam...prove me wrong please! 

Projection: NCAA Qualifier, Bloodround Exit.

 

174: Logan Massa. Massa is the second of three wrestlers who had a fantastic showing at the Senior Nationals tournament in the off season. Defeating reigning national champion Mekhi Lewis (VaTech) for the second time. Massa is a bit of a conundrum, much like that of his brother, Taylor. I wonder if he was cutting too much weight to get to 165. Contrary to that thought is the fact that Massa competed at 74kg, or just over 163lbs for you non metric lovers. Massa at 174 is the best thing for the current Michigan lineup as he avoids bruiser types like Marinelli and allows C. Amine into the lineup at 165. Echo Echo Echo...much like most of the team Massa faces a big test when he will presumably face Iowa’s Michael Kemerer later this month. Massa has earned All-American honors just once in his collegiate career. A career that has been much maligned due to a concussion and severe knee injury at the Cliff Keen Las Vegas tournament a few years back against Evan Wick (Wisconsin). I would like Massa to be more imposing with his attacks as he tends to only look for a front headlock, head in the hole go-behind combination. Massa was visibly frustrated in the Rutgers match as his opponent took every second possible on restarts. The good news is that Massa seems to have his confidence back and I look forward to watching him compete this year. Massa will achieve bonus points at a steady albeit boring manner on his way to a national finals appearance. Can he reach his ceiling this season? Yes.

 

Projection: National Champion

 

184: Myles Amine. Amine is the wrestler I have my eye on this year. He returns from redshirt (maybe), he has jumped up to 184 (maybe 197), and is dealing with injury while also being qualified for the Olympics (San Marino) this summer. I find it convenient that both our athletes (M. Amine and Micic) that have already qualified for the Summer Olympics are working through injuries and have yet to wrestle this season. That is not to say that they are not in fact injured, I just believe that maybe the load of practicing 2 different styles at elite levels is proving to be too much. All in all if we do see Myles in a maize and blue singlet in the 2020-2021 season, enjoy the ride. Myles is a 3 time All-American never falling below 4th place. Amine has been the best combination of consistency and success over the past few years but he never could quite crack the code to defeat Mark Hall (PSU). With Hall gone, the crown is there for Amine to take. Amine’s biggest challenger likely does not come from within the B1G so it will be a unique match-up if and when tournament time comes around. At this point I am just eager to see Amine compete. In his place, the Wolverines have trotted out a few freshmen (Joe Walker and Jaden Bullock). Ironically Bullock, the lighter of the two, has had the most success wrestling up a weight (listed officially as a 174). Another unique plot twist at this weight class is the absence of Jelani Emberee. Being that this is the internet and people seem to have unlimited time these days, you’ll probably remember that I have been critical of Emberee since he joined the line up. Last year I theorized “the bump” around March as it would take Emberee out of the line up in favor of Cam Amine. In that theory Gaige Garcia would be the 197lb competitor. I am honestly left a bit puzzled at this point. Is Emberee getting beat by the freshmen at 184? Is he growing into the new weight class at 197? Is Andrew Davison beating Emberee for the spot at 197? Covid? Opt-out? Your guess is as good as mine, but any one of the first three is believable by this author with the best case being reason 2 and the worst case being reason 3. Getting back to the competitors we have seen, I want to see more of Bullock going forward. He registered a 16-0 tech fall in his debut, which is impressive, but then again it was Mayland. I think he is the heir apparent to Massa at 174 but I would like more data points.

 

Projection: If Amine, National Champion. If anyone else NCAA qualifier, likely an at large bid.

 

197: Andrew Davison. The questions surrounding this weight class are a continuation from years past as well as some of the discussion from the 184lb weight class. In my mind Davison is a warm body serving as a placeholder for someone else. Who that someone else is, remains a mystery at this point. The best bet is Gaige Garcia, the true freshman I have and will continue to call for. Garcia though, is a true freshman, and is also a member of the football team in a bit of a weird scholarship situation. Listed at 205 on the football roster I’m going to guess that that listed weight is inaccurate. Even so, being a freshman in two sports and transitioning to the college classroom is no small task. Writing this sentence if I were in coach Bormet’s shoes I would likely redshirt Garcia. The other likely candidate is Jelani Emberee, a two year “starter” who filters in and out of the line up. I put starter in quotations because Emberee largely dodged all of the formidable opponents in year one with the exception of Shakur Rasheed (Penn St.). I’m honestly not sure if Emberee is a better option here over Davison. Neither of the two gives me great confidence for Michigan to take the team title at this year’s NCAA tournament. Speaking about Davison a bit, he has wrestled a ranked opponent in Billy Janzer (Rutgers) to the tune of a 4-1 loss. Davison wrestles sloppy for the college landscape and often tries to force his moves instead of creating angles with good position. His lone victory of the year came against Maryland with Davison topping Smith 11-8. There are no more smooth roads in the future: Iowa, Penn St, Mich St, and Ohio St. all bring tough opponents. Let’s see who is at the helm down the stretch.

 

Projection: If Davison or Emberee, under .500 not a qualifier. If Garcia, NCAA qualifier.

 

HWT: Mason Parris. Man how the time flies. Seems like yesterday Parris was ripping through his redshirt to upset then #1 ranked Amar Dhesi to seal the dual victory for the Wolverines. Flash forward a year and Parris was undefeated and gaining a lot of steam heading into the B1G finals to meet Steveson (Minnesota). The match would end handing Parris his lone loss last season via an 8-6 decision that was not as close as the score indicates. Steveson returns this year and both Steveson and Parris defeated Nick Gwiazdowski (World Team Member, former NCAA Champ) in the RTC Cup (Freestyle) so I would like to see just how much Parris gained from last season. Steveson seems almost bored with the college landscape and I find that attitude to be ironic. He has yet to win a national title, falling his freshman year to Cassar of Penn St. and has only captured one B1G title with that being last year's victory over Parris. Steveson has even announced his intentions to retire from wrestling following this NCAA season. Whether that includes freestyle or not, Steveson is expected to compete for a spot on the U.S. Olympic team. I think this makes Steveson more vulnerable to upset, as it appears he really isn’t fully invested. Outside of Steveson, the usual foes are still around: Cassioppi (Iowa), Hilger (Wisconsin), Stencel (Central Mich). Possible additional barriers to this year could be a couple highly touted Freshman in Cohlton Schultz (Ariz St) and Greg Kerkvliet (Penn St). I like Parris to replicate his Sophomore season with similar results. 

 

Projection: NCAA and B1G runner up

 

Team: With the current projections, I just don’t see the firepower to quite take down Iowa this season. The biggest weakness plaguing this team is the lack of bonus points. The lineup is solid and if they finish worse than 2nd it would be a major disappointment. A lot will hinge on the development of C. Amine and Ragusin, as well as the health of M. Amine and Micic. Iowa is vulnerable though, and this lineup is must-see TV every time they take the mat.

 

Projection: 2nd place

 

**Note the two-week hiatus will likely postpone the scheduled dual with Iowa, so we will have to wait a little longer to see the marquee match-ups**