[Ed: Originally from the board. Bumped to the diaries]

I enjoy reading the recruiting reviews over the summer and I'm always intrigued by the ratings the blog applies for Variance, Ceiling, and General Excitement Level. I was wondering what it would look like if these were translated in a manner to get a better understanding of what the blog thinks about the potential for this recruiting class vs. the previous recruiting class.

I started by taking all of the word designations the blog uses and aligned them to a numerical scale. Nothing fancy, keeping it simple. 

I'd like a word with the editor. I know you never expected someone to waste time analyzing this, but it was a bit of a challenge deciding where to slot Abstemious vs. Meh-plus.

Now the analysis. Keep in mind, the size of classes vary and this is small data. For example, the 2021 D Backfield only had two recruits (1 CB & 1 S). 

I'll start with the easy comparison: Composite Recruiting Rankings: Here's a comparison of the 2022 vs 2021 rankings for the defensive class by position:

On defense, there was an overall increase in composite recruiting rankings, except for linebackers. To some degree, Michigan did see a benefit from their good season. 

Now the fun stuff:

Here's the rankings based on Variance. This is a little tricky. Low variance is a good thing when combined with a highly rated recruit. Higher variance could be a good thing with a lower rated recruit. In general, you want a lower score here. 

The higher ranked class (2022) has more variance, but that is primarily driven by the LB's. The DT's are slightly skewed because of Kenneth Grant. He had the largest (mammoth) variance rating. Mason Graham & Cam Goode had very low variance ratings. 

Here's the rankings based on Ceiling. The higher the number the better. You want a high ceiling. 

The 2022 class has a higher ceiling with a huge jump for the safeties. Interestingly, the blog thinks the LB class has just about the same ceiling potential as the 2021 class. A ray of hope! 

Here's the rankings by General Excitement Level (GEL). The higher the number the better. More excitement is a good thing! 

The 2022 class has a higher GEL primarily driven by the safeties and DE's. Again, the staff is about equally excited for this years LB's vs last years LB's, but generally are less excited about LB's vs other positions.  

Overall, the rankings and MGoBlog staff think Michigan got a really good class of safeties and they expect them to deliver. The D-Line should be slightly better than what Michigan brought in last year. The LB's while ranked lower has about as much upside and potential as last years class which was ranked really well.

What does it all mean? Who knows. No one, other than Rod Moore, thought Rod Moore would end up starting almost half the season. However, in general, I think the blog does a very good job of evaluating the incoming talent and how they will fit into the overall roster. 

Here's a comparison of the complete defensive class for 2021 vs 2022. I included rank, variance, and GEL. I left our ceiling because it pretty closely aligns with GEL & I wanted a cleaner chart. 

 

Conclusions:

S: Better rated recruits than last year. Higher Excitement level. More variance because Damani Dent is an unknown and Keon Sabb doesn't have a clear position. Keep in mind, Rod Moore was the only recruit at S last year and he far exceeded expectations. 

CB: Ja'Den McBurrows was the only CB recruit last year. Rated at 3.73 he had very low variance and high GEL. This year's class of 3 CB's were all ranked higher but had similar excitement levels, except for Will Johnson (obviously). Overall CB should be in good shape from these past two classes because their GEL ratings were 1 and 2 compared to other defensive position groups. 

LB: Compared to the other defensive positions, the blog is less excited about both classes. This years class is lower rated, but the blog feels their ceiling could be just as high, it's more questionable (variance) if they reach it. 

DE: Much higher rated class this year vs. last. Higher ceiling, less variance, higher excitement. Maybe the seasons Hutch & Ojabo had paid off? Overall, both classes did not have a stand out GEL rating compared to other defensive position groups. 

DT: Almost exact same rankings both years. Blog sees this years class having more variance while their Ceiling and GEL are very similar. Average to high GEL rating both years so there should be continuity of good play from these two classes. 

Overall: 2022 was a better defensive ranked class than 2021. The blog thinks both D-Line positions have lower ceilings than D Backfield and LB. They also have less excitement about DE & LB's compared to S,CB, DT. The variance on DE's is low so they are probably right about them, the variance on LB's is higher so there is a chance we get better than expected from that group.