Adv. Stats Schedule Rundown - Week 10 Results

Submitted by Ecky Pting on

Here's the Advanced Statistics Schedule Rundown for UM as of the end of Week 10, and yes, it's still including Iowa as the 13th game should UM be so fortunate as to wiggle into it. Iowa is a virtual lock for Indy, and as long as UM's chances are greater than zero of making it to Indy, I'm showing it.

So without further ado, here's the embiggable chart:

U-M FB Adv. Stats Sched Rundown, 2015wk10

The race continues to tighten as this seaon approaches the wire, but the S&P+ love-affair with M continues to be quite torrid. In the S&P+ ratings, M showed a modest improvement over last week's results in Offense moving from #45 to #43, while the remaining opponents IU, PSU & OSU all showed slight declines on S&P+ Offense.  The offense is what it is at this point, and a pummeling of Rutgers isn't going to change much. On S&P+ Defense, it's hard for M to improve on a #1 ranking, which was maintained, however the rating did erode by a half-point from 8.9 to 9.4. IU & PSU held steady in S&P+ Defense ranking, while OSU advanced from #12 to #9. In the aggregate, M maintains the #3 ranking and the same rating of 22.8. OSU is right behind at the same #4 spot, with the spread opening by 0.7 points to M -5.1.  Iowa declined in overall S&P+ rank from #16 to #20, with the spread increasing by 1.7 points to M -6.4.

The FEI ratings may be more realistic?  At least it includes a Special Teams breakout, which is insightful considering the debacle that was ST play in the first half against Rutgers. M is no longer the Special Teams darling of the FEI, as its ranking dropped from #1 to #5. Giving up a KO return for a TD and a PR with a huge equivalent points value to set up another score will do that. Nonetheless, PSU, OSU & Iowa all showed similar or worse declines in Special Teams, moving from #77, #24 and #44 to #89, #32 and #48, respectively - so as Blake O'Neil might say,  "No worries, Mate!"

FEI warmed up significantly regarding M's offense, which went from #58 to #41, thanks to Rudock's fine performance leading into garbage time. Still, 2 of the 3 remaining opponents, plus Iowa, have higher ranking offenses. OSU saw a slight decline from #25 to #28, but this may be the Cardale Jones effect, which should be reversed next week when J.T. Barrett resumes QB duties.

On the other hand, perhaps the most alarming aspect are the FEI Defensive numbers, which see M decline from a #2 to a #5 rank, while OSU advanced from a #15 to a #12. However, IU, PSU and Iowa's defenses all slipped from #91, #9 and #19 to #99, #13 and #24 respectively. Regardless, outside of Indiana, M's offense will be looking at some of the toughest sledding of the season.

FEI Overall rankings show M has dropped out of the top ten from #10 to #12. IU and OSU held steady at #60 and #8, respectively. PSU improved to #45 from #50, and Iowa slipped from #17 to #18.

Rolling the S&P+ and FEI numbers together, Connelly & Fremeau come up with the F/+ Combined Ratings, in which M holds steady at #4, while OSU improved from #6 to #5. The Game is shaping up to be a truly epic matchup. PSU also improved from #40 to #38, while IU and Iowa both dropped from #63 and #13 to #64 and #17, respectively.

Last but not least are the Football Power Index (FPI) ratings from ESPN. Here as well M's ranking declined from #16 to #18, while OSU declined from #4 to #5. As with S&P+, the spread moved 1.5 points in M's favor from +4.4 to +2.9, further affirmation that The Game is looking to resume its position in The Natural Order of Rivalries. M is favored in all of the other matchups, but PSU, as well as Iowa, are both within one score.

Yours in football, and Go Blue!

Comments

Balrog_of_Morgoth

November 10th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^

I have noticed that you consistently use "adieu" instead of the correct "ado." I am just pointing this out to be informative, not incendiary.

I enjoy these posts each week. Keep up the nice work.

DualThreat

November 10th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^

Thanks again!

The FEI indeed looks to be the most accurate , showing our 2 loses.  Let's hope it's dead wrong on OSU. :-)