WTKA Roundtable 7/15/2021: Who Gets the Ring?
Things discussed:
- Legal advice for Dwayne Haskins. Ann Arbor Elder Law is going to be really impressed about Seth’s knowledge of Michigan case law.
- NIL versus cheating: What’s the difference?
- Sam lays out how he would make his NIL pitch to counter Florida’s “Gatorade” play.
- Sam: I think Wes would choose Michigan over Florida.
- Michigan’s advantages and disadvantages in recruiting. Players want to WIN more than you do.
- Where’s the NIL money coming from? Are ADs worried that it’s coming from their waterfalls?
- NCAA cheating is great for money laundering. Ed Martin came along 30 years too early.
- Why is a Michigan like a Ravens offense? Because we’re going to be big up front, and use motion to let the RBs pick their gaps pre-snap. They don’t have a Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Ravens use HUGE linemen in their spread, and Michigan’s trying to put Zak Zinter at center. Seth doesn’t think it changes what Michigan was already doing—they were already using a lot of Greg Roman’s Beef Spread offensive philosophy.
- Why is a Michigan like a Ravens defense? Because we’re going to be big up front, and force defenses to try to attack us outside. We discuss whether they can make it work?
- Is Michigan’s defense going to improve? Yes. They’ll go from 115th to 90th. Huzzah!
[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment two is available here. You can also watch the video here:
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- What's with the theme music?
There must be a maple syrup company in Michigan, and you could have Sapp’s syrup.
So why again aren't the banners already up and the statue already down?
Important questions. Despite all the bushwah and bilge that sometimes floats through the comments, sometimes someone makes a point clearly and succinctly. Good job, Put.
If you break the rules 20 years ago you still broke the rules. New NIL rules in today's game doesn't change that fact. Reggie Bush shouldn't re-receive his heisman, osu shouldn't get their vacated wins back, and we shouldn't hang banners when we intentionally cheated. And yes I'm aware many schools have since cheated the same way we did right under the NCAA's nose with no penalty. The issue is lack of integrity and accountability by the NCAA in its willingness to look the other way and not enforce rules consistently. But don't change your morals just because your boss sucks.
I refuse to consider Michigan 'leaders and best' if we start believing in rewards for cheating even if others are receiving exactly that. There is no honor in that.
I mean, was the Fab 5 really cheating by the program? Seems like Stretchgate: exaggerated because we are Michigan.
If someone formally considered an Ohio State booster gave Zeke Elliot $280,000 and was busted by the NCAA for it, what would your reaction be?
“Holy crap the NCAA actually busted OSU”?
Jokes aside, I get your point.
Greg Roman's Beef Spread would put Golden Corral out of business.
Why does Brian looks so miserable on this call?
BPONE ennui otter no spring practice or Matt Campbell something something
Brian can be a bit fickle, but from what I can tell his default is gloom and BPONE nowadays, and he feels Harbaugh is just weird and unorganized. I think he's kind of done with Michigan football unless they start strong and find a signature win.
Last year he was down on Michigan, then the podcast after Minnesota was almost euphoric. 'I Like our Offensive Coordinator!' and stuff like Don Brown is adjusting his defense and it will give up more points but that's okay... Lots of hearty laughs.
Then the season went to hell and he went right back into BPONE and the analysis in my opinion went downhill, more eyore than balanced. He's been like this awhile. The only time I've seen him really go to the ramparts to defend a coach when things weren't awesome was during the RR era when we all saw a team that had no defense and an offense that picked on bad teams and he published an article saying how great the offense really was and showed all the numbers. It was actuallya pretty good article. But, he liked RR as a read option guy; LOVED Denard; and felt that we were going to be 'modern' after that, so he had some hope and was a little more balanced.
So, at least for me I don't go to him for a reasoned, balanced take on Michigan football anymore.
His analysis on other sports and on the NCAA is still rock solid, IMHO.
Wow. Just watched the Video. He looks like someone reading his email during the zoom call LOL. Dude, maybe just let Seth take over the roundtable?
My thought was is no one going to prompt Brian for an answer? I get that Seth has opinions on NIL and the schematic stuff but it’s just awkward when they ignore one person completely. Yes Brian could have spoken up on his own but cmon Sam.
Yeah it was definitely Sam Webbs fault. Like Sam free Brian... wtf1?
This is mad sarcasm and headshaking.
"the analysis in my opinion went downhill, more eyore than balanced"
I get people being tired of Brian's negativity, but it's also warranted. Are you really saying Brian was too negative about last year's team? It was an utter worst-case scenario disaster. Are you that guy in the aptly named Life of Brian who tells him to look on the bright side of life?
I get people being tired of Brian's negativity, but it's also warranted. Are you really saying Brian was too negative about last year's team? It was an utter worst-case scenario disaster.
Yes. He was too negative. The key for me is both in his emotional swing and in your admission that it was an utter worst-case scenario. For a guy who complains about Harbaugh being weird and suggesting he might have CTE, his takes generally trend negative. At this point for me he's like our own in house Drew Sharp without the super cynical take.
Any organization hit with last year might buckle, and lots did, that doesn't make them bad organizations. Rational analysis views that as an outlier. Great analysis looks into what has happened with Michigan football over the past 6 years and sees a good, but not elite team that has underperformed fan expectations.
The podcast went from Minnesota 'Yay It's awesome!' to 'We Suck and our team is unorganized' in one week. That doesn't make sense and lacks perspective. Look at some of the analysis done by Isaiah Hole and it's more balanced. So negativity about last year, at the end of last year, I get, but it has to be viewed in perspective.
Brian doesn't like the Big Ten, doesn't like our coaches, doesn't like our coaching.... and was down on Michigan even when we were winning 9 games.
Are you that guy in the aptly named Life of Brian who tells him to look on the bright side of life?
No. I just ask that we look at what we are realistically right now. We had a completely shit year, but it was also during a pandemic when we had huge opt outs and huge injuries. Collectively Michigan isn't that bad. We just aren't some whiz bang 'modern' spread team that recruits like crazy. And there are lots of reasons for that that have absolutely *nothing* to do with coaching. Further, none of those things *are likely to change* no matter who we get as head coach. Saban coming here wouldn't be able to implement the same recruiting system he has at Bama.
Prior to last year, Harbaugh's worst season (8 wins) was matched the second best record for the previous 7 years. All of his other seasons were better, sans the 11 win Hoke first year. That is not "Michigan is terrible".
So yeah. Too negative overall and unwarranted. It's not 'Look at the Bright Side of Life' it's 'Count your blessings and stop complaining'.
So well said.
There has been a very noticeable hand-waving dismissal tone from Brian towards any attempt at Football analysis or discussion on the roundtable for some time. I genuinely enjoy the views and opinions of Craig, Sam, and Seth, and when Brian is engaged, his as well! But when it comes to football it feels he has totally checked out and simply can't be bothered.
I loathe the "if we don't win it all it's what the point" approach a lot of people take now, it's completely unrealistic and lacks perspective. How does this program get better, how does it take meaningful steps forward? That's what I want to see and discuss. Take care of the details and the bigger stuff will come.
I am not asking for blind optimism or nothing but sunshine, but your last few paragraphs hit home for me: things aren't where we want, but let's talk about perspective exactly like you mentioned. The resignation that somehow this is an unchangeable situation is flummoxing to me. Last year was an aberration rather than a sign of utter doom, IMO. Michigan adhering to actual pandemic protocols leading to inconsistent practice, losing at times their top 6-7 players overall off an already obscenely young team, etc etc all combined for a total throw away year. Frustrating? Sure. Cause to resign? I don't get that approach. There are things that were meaningful moving forward as well: I liked McNamara in the offense, he knew where the ball was supposed to go and got it there. Corum looks like a weapon. It would be great to see more discussion of what should be a truly interesting pivot on defense and a wholesale change in approach on staff to improve recruiting and player development.
Maybe things change once Fall camp is underway and we have more to digest, but his portions on football have been a tough listen for some time now.
Honestly, Brian is a great writer who's in-depth analysis of Michigan football over the past 10+ years is second to none.
I imagine he's felt the losses more than most of us. I can understand why he's cautious of getting his hopes up again.
Hopefully this coming season restores his optimism a little, but I can understand him being somewhat disconnected this off season.
Great analysis looks into what has happened with Michigan football over the past 6 years and sees a good, but not elite team that has underperformed fan expectations.
I think that's a soft take. That's looking at it from (2015) - (pre OSU 2018). But, from 2018 OSU to today, it's pretty bleak. UM is 10-11 since then. That's under .500. And, in games against ranked teams they are 2-8 with the only wins against Iowa and ND in 2019. They've lost to every other ranked team they've played. OSU, Florida, Wiscy, PSU, OSU #2, Bama, Indiana, & Wiscy #2. And, that ignores a second loss to a PSU team with a losing record and a gift of not having to lose to OSU and third time.
I just ask that we look at what we are realistically right now. We had a completely shit year, but it was also during a pandemic
I'm also not a fan of the pandemic excuse. Indiana, NW, and Iowa seemed to deal it with better and that's giving the OSU argument a free pass because we have a million excuses why we can't compete with them.
we had huge opt outs
So, having to play a sophomore top #200 composite WR (Cornelous Johnson) to replace Nico Collins and having to pick from two high three star Jr CBs (Green & Turner), a 4-star Jr CB (Perry), and two 4-star freshman CBs (Seldon & DGW) to accompany Gray, a senior safety (Hawkins) and a 5-star safety (Hill) to replace Ambry Thomas is insurmountable? Most programs not named OSU or Bama would kill for that kind of talent.
The problem is one, we aren't retaining guys. If for example we still had our top #200 composite Jr CB (Myles Sims), our 4-star Sr QB (Dylan McCaffrey), our two 4-star Sr WRs (Black & Martin) and our 5-star Sr DT (Aubrey Solomon) maybe the season would have looked different. And two, we aren't developing guys. Where was our top #100 DE (Luiji Vilain), our other 4-star QB (Milton), our fringe top #100 LBs (Singleton & Anthony), etc? You are are glossing over some major problems in player retention and development.
and injuries
Again, we had more talent than lots of other teams that performed better. Injuries always happen. The problem was the lack of player retention and development.
My take on the COVID season is this: it revealed or widened the cracks/fissures in your team, like water seeping into concrete in the winter. OSU and Clemson and Alabama had zero cracks. IU had very few. So when the water tried to seep in and freeze, nothing happened to those programs. They had
- a cohesive system they've been running for years,
- quality coaches,
- recruiting,
- development
- and retention of good, experienced players.
Michigan had so many cracks, the water got in & froze (COVID) and the concrete completely crumbled.
Had COVID (the winter & water) never came, your driveway probably would have been OK. Not great, but could last another few years.
I understand the opt outs and injuries and lack of experience in 2020 compounded things, but all of that could have happened to other programs too (and did!). But this M program was a hell of a lot closer to the ledge than we all realized in 2019. COVID just gave the push that other programs could withstand.
Using water on driveway cracks as a metaphor is probably the most Michigan thing ever put on this site.
Last year’s team was like a beloved power tool that got left in the super humid garage at the lake house one too many times by careless kids
I could also get into how an upset can happen based on the amount of overlap each teams' normal distributions of performance overlap. But that's more of a Purdue blog thing and Brian already covered that years and years ago.
Sims was impatient. Where is he now?
McCaffrey too. He bailed before spring because they were giving Milton an equal shot.
Black, man, he had two injuries in the two years he was here; when was Michigan supposed to develop him? Should they have played him over Ronnie Bell to keep him from going to Texas? Oliver Martin has transferred to two other Big Ten schools already because he thought he could just show up and start somewhere else. You think that dude left because of something unique about Michigan?
Solomon, what has he done?
Vilain had two huge injuries. Michigan played him last year when he was probably going to medshirt. What are you saying, they needed to put him back together?
Singleton lost his first season to an injury that he suffered in high school, never fully got back from it, got passed immediately McGrone, and is a backup at Rutgers. Anthony I haven't heard from.
How we lost Milton pisses me off because he was benched when he should have been but thought he was wronged, and took Giles Jackson and Xavier Worthy with him. THOSE guys could have helped. Ben St Juste passing his medical eval (or Michigan ignoring it) would have helped. I can't agree that players who left before Michigan could develop them and did nothing, or got injured and stayed as long as they could, were program issues. The only thing you can criticize is should Michigan have recruited them, but I would be a huge hypocrite if I say now that they shouldn't have gotten back with Aubrey Solomon or recruited Oliver Martin and Tarik Black, or ignored McCaffrey.
You fault Michigan for losing the rest but the rest took themselves off the board and haven't done anything since. Any program who had them would have probably gotten the same. And it's usual for that to happen. I think Michigan cuts bait faster but that's not their problem. Their problem is they can't seem to be able to decide if they want to be an SEC program or Stanford, and are paying off their past mistakes while trying something else that will probably lead to new ones.
"How we lost Milton pisses me off because he was benched when he should have been but thought he was wronged, and took Giles Jackson and Xavier Worthy with him."
Did I completely miss the articles about this? Or is this another one of those times where are all of the writers covering the program know something, but for whatever reason just decide to not cover it at all?
Sam said it on one of the WTKA roundtables.
Just my two cents here, but how many people actually watch/listen to those? I honestly don't have the time, or patience to listen to those. Plus I generally just prefer to read, rather than listen.
I agree with most of your points above, btw. This fanbase is really self destructive, and I don't think I will ever fully understand why. I do think the decades of deifying Bo played a large part.
I can't agree that players who left before Michigan could develop them and did nothing, or got injured and stayed as long as they could, were program issues. The only thing you can criticize is should Michigan have recruited them, but I would be a huge hypocrite if I say now that they shouldn't have gotten back with Aubrey Solomon or recruited Oliver Martin and Tarik Black, or ignored McCaffrey.
I think you hit the nail on the head. They shouldn't have recruited them because their recruiting rankings did not represent their college production. How many other programs have that many 4/5 star guys that didn't pan out over that short of a time span? If they weren't any good due to HS injuries or just weren't any good because they were overrated HS recruits, then that's a UM recruiting and ID problem.
I've long held the top 100 guys we get under JH are not the same as other programs. They often have HS injuries (Vilain, Singleton, etc), got spurned by other programs (McCarthy), are flaky (Solomon), or were projected positions changes from what they played in HS (Hinton). This is why so many of them don't pan out and UMs recruiting rankings look better than they are because they are filled with overrated guys because UM can't get the guys they really want. This is a problem however you wish to dissect or label it.
"McCaffrey too. He bailed before spring because they were giving Milton an equal shot."
Is this what actually happened? There have been more theories surrounding McCaffery's departure conjured up here than with the Kennedy assassination.
IF it is true, hard to know what to make of it. The instinct is to think, "why doesn't he think he could beat Milton out in the first place." At the same time, he could think, "this coaching staff thinks Milton and I are the same player after two years of practices. WTF."
I'm pretty sure if we're talking about college students playing a game, we aren't anywhere near a "worst-case scenario disaster."
To summarize the posts above, it was Michigan Football heavy and I think we all know where Brian stands on Michigan Football right now. Not holding my breath for a HTTV in my hands before the season starts.
Brian wanted a wholesale departure from Lloyd ball, and abhorred DeBord. He got what he wanted with a high flying offense somewhat in RR and unfortunately it didn't work out. And he was quite right when he said we were Notre Dame (then) when we had hired Hoke. And considering he was talking Bob Stitt for OC, should explain the lack of enthusiasm while we play manball and not winning.
Can't speak for Brian, but IIRC he and guys on this site were absolutely cackling with glee the first year or two of Harbaugh on Offense.
not sure what happened but changes were made when the offense struggled in year 3, leading to the Gattis hire...maybe it was Michigan not liking how the offense performed, maybe it was wanting a modern offense that could challenge OSU by matching score for score.
the Offense in year one had a ton of interesting plays and formations and motions...maybe Ruddock/Fish just were on the same wavelength, but after those two moved on, things started to slide back a little...Speight absolutely had a great first year, so its hard to know what went wrong
I'm actually on Brian's end of the spectrum re: football. Brian needs evidence for his opinion to change. Not hope or recruiting rankings or insider practice reports alone. He needs to SEE actual competition to get a sense for
- how these new guys on the OL will actually perform.
- how the QB will actually perform
- how the offense plans of getting the ball to, well, any playmaker at all
- how the DTs can hold up
- who else shows up on on the DE opposite of Hutchinson (and BTW will he come back from injury @ 100% or close to it?)
- how the CBs are going to stop anything at all
- how the new, young, LBers (and anyone for that matter) will play in a new system on D
At this point, there is almost no indication that this defense will be above average to good. Maybe one reliable corner, a DL hoping a OSU (NTOSU) DT who couldn't see the field will be a significant contributor, IDK who's available to step up at LBer.
Offensively, does anyone here trust JH to develop a QB? how many top 100 QBs have come here since 2015? Is there talent at the skill positions? Yes, but they are young and inexpereinced at TE and WR, which is not a good sign for the QB production. 2021 looks like a ceiling of 8-4. Wash, IU, OSU, PSU, WISC are 5 teams that I'd hope to get 2 wins from and I'm not so sure that MSU, NW, Maryland and Rutgers are the 'lock it in wins' that people think they are, given last year.
Who is the Elon Musk lookalike?
Glad I wasn't the only one who thought that was a bearded Musk
It cracks me up every time - Brian Cook, how are you doing? I'm good. Don't let that personality shine thru Brian haha
Also, LOL at the idea that Stephen Ross, or even Jim Hacket would even entertain the idea of joining a call for a high school recruit. Yeah, they have time for that.
As others have said before, build an NLI program instead something that actually builds on the promise for the 40 years not just 4 years.
If you don't think CEOs have 30-60 mins a day to waste on nothing, buddy I got news for ya
One ring to rule them all,
One ring find them,
One ring to bring them all
And in the darkness launder NIL money.
No.
It's just that, unlike most of you, Mr. Cook has arrived at Acceptance Stage on the Kuebler-Ross.
Meet you all there too after the WMU game.
For most people it will be after the Washington game. I think that game will be just like the ND game in Hoke’s final season. A primetime embarrassment that officially ends the Harbaugh era but Michigan won’t fire him until the end of the season.
Seth, you briefly mentioned you think we'll see Michigan's defense in a 5-2 look. Given the current shape of the roster, I'd love to see them in more of a 2-4-5 nickel.
Just me speculating, but given the mentioned safety depth, the R.J. Moten hype, and the "Dax is gonna be this defense's Peppers," I'm gonna guess we see a lot of Dax in the nickel this year.
I also think they'll break in some 3-4 and 5-2 looks, but I still think their best bet to get their best players on the field against a lot of 3 wide spreads is a 2-4-5.
Thoughts?
Not Seth but maybe can you clarify? Literally every defense has a nickel package. Are you asking what that is, or are you advocating an every-down 2-4 look? Either way it’ll be a multiple defense so yeah they might pull the NT on passing downs; do you mean deploying a nickel package with regularity?
To clarify, I think the roster is better suited for a 2-4-5 nickel than a 3-4/5-2.
They have a big question at nose, and the 3-4 shaped ends are freshman. Jeter and Hinton are pretty good in a 3 tech or 1 tech. Put Hutch as an edge and figure out the other OLB spot. Ross and Barrett off the ball, R.J. and Hawkins at Safety, Green and Somebody at corner, Dax at Nickel.
I assume Mac will run a lot of looks, but I think a 2-4-5 could work well with what they have.
I watched the 2011 OSU game recently. We started out in 5-2-4 on first and ten. There were five men on the LOS in a 3-point stance. Depending on the result of the play, they'd stay in that or more often, transition to a 4-2-5 or 3-3-5. I expect to see that type of multiple defense this year.
I, for one, hope to never see a 2-4-5 ever again. When OSU sees that, they double the two down linemen, shove them 5 yards downfield and set up 2nd and 5.
Hutch is not an OLB. You can stand him up if you want, but at 6'6", 270, he's not a linebacker. I'm having flashbacks to Craig Roh trying to play LB just thinking about this. Your 2-4-5 is a 4-2-5. You can call it a 2-4-5, but if Hutch is on the field, he's a lineman. If the 4th guy is an Uche-like player, it's debatable if that's 4-2 or 3-3 set up.
You're right. I think Hutch is more of an edge player who can play standing up. Call him what you want. I'm saying I think Jeter and Hinton are not ideally shaped for 3-4 ends and nose is a big question mark.
I could see how what I'm describing is more of a 3-3 look. Guess it depends on what you want to call the edge players.
I guess you don't remember playing Beilemas Wisconsin where they just plowed through us. Never again. Screw the 2-4-5
Except they really don't have the personnel to be a 4-2-5, unless the DTs are much better. The idea of going to a 3-4 is really to replace a linebacker with more beef in the middle. Bigger wall up front instead of greater depth. Since their DTs were getting pushed around so much they had to use their DEs inside and play to spill all the time, Michigan was already sacrificing the best part of a 40 front anyways. You're not asking Hinton and Jeter to Mazi to do more. You're asking Hinton and Jeter to do something easier and Mazi to hold up inside. The LBs' jobs got harder.
As for 5-2 versus 3-4, yeah, I'll demonstrate the difference You just have to pay attention to the personnel. This is Bo's last 5-2 defensive front in 1976. Note the two guys they're using at defensive end:
- Dom Tedesco, 6-4, 210 lbs.
- John Anderson, 6-3, 215 lbs.
Remember players in general were smaller--a big OT was 6-4, 250 lbs. So think of those guys today as more like someone listed at 6-6, 270 lbs. on the roster. Like an Aidan Hutchinson or a Taylor Upshaw.
Alright, now let's flash forward one year, to 1977, after they converted to a 3-4. All defensive ends have been removed from the field and replaced by linebackers. Let's look at who they found to play those two new outside linebacker roles.
- Dom Tedesco, 6-4, 210 lbs.
- John Anderson, 6-3, 215 lbs.
See the difference? The 5-2 has two defensive ends. A 3-4 has two outside linebackers. So that's how you tell them apart.
As to the other question, yeah, 3-4 defenses go to 2-4-5 all the time and Michigan's probably will be no exception. How do you tell the difference between a 2-4-5 nickel and a 4-2-5 nickel? Well a 4-2-5 removes an LB for a nickel, like so:
CB DE DT DT DE CB
NK LB LB
$ F
By contrast, a 2-4-5 removes a DT for for a nickel so you get this setup:
CB OLB DT DT OLB CB
NK LB LB
$ F
See the difference? That's how you tell them apart!
Joking aside, I think their plan for the 2-4-5 is to use Paige or Moten as an extra safety so Dax can move down to nickel. If you think of Dax as a Viper it's really the same front as last year.
My guy! Appreciate all you do, Seth.
Do you think moving to a 3-4 base means we're also likey gonna see more 5-2 and 2-4-5 formations? I know Don Brown loved him some 4-2-5.
If Dax is as good or better than Peppers, then this defense has a Heisman level player in its starting 11. I wanna see what that guy can do compared to Hunter Reynolds. If Pep was moved around when he was a viper, and Dax can be used similarly this year at nickel, look out.
Can not wait to see what they come up with for him this year. If it were me, I know I'm getting that Dude involved.
Yes I think we will be a base 5-2 and lift a DT for nickel situations.
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