Letters: I’ve taken to adding them (p=pass pro, y=YAC, c=catch, b=block for RBs) to pass event +/- since it’s included in the charting now. So Hayes(-1p) means he got a pass pro minus versus a run blocking minus.

Formation Notes: Penn State often swaps their SAM, #23 6’1”/230 Curtis Jacobs, for their nickel, #25 5’9/180 Daequan Hardy, but a) uses them exactly the same and b) is lying their asses off about Jacobs’s size since he’s looks 6’0”/205 at most. Since their numbers look alike on digital film, I think I labeled them incorrectly a few times before it hit me that the HSP looks like he’s shrunk. PFF says Jacobs got 43 snaps to Hardy’s 24, for what it’s worth.

They also use a lot of different formations with their base personnel I called this one “4-3 Over 4i” to denote the SDE is lined up inside the T’s shoulder (that’s Jacobs on the top).

And this is Nickel Odd Split:

Michigan added a pure tackle over formation (“T-Over”) that preserves that TE as an eligible receiver (their MSU version did not).

Substitution Notes: Cade the whole way, Haskins almost always with Edwards in for a few, another big chunk of Trente Jones, WRs went Johnson-Sainristil-Wilson most of the way, with Anthony, Baldwin, and Henning rotating in. Erick All was limited but in on crucial downs.  Snap counts are here.

Weather note: Heavy winds, sleet at times, and the ground got soaked and remained one big splooshy puddle of ploopiness, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

[After THE JUMP: I deserve that, Michigan deserved to win.]

I’m up against the WTKA roundtable so I’ll insert the links into the text later.

Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol 12 FB	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	Penalty	8	False Start	Stueber	-5	-0.74
Stueber(-1) moved, seemed to tell officials he got disconcerting signals. If so it was vocal—there's nothing on tape.
M20	1st	15	Pistol 12 FB Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	RPO	8	Trap/Flash Screen	Haskins	4	-0.06
The read is probably in case the CB is 10+ yards off not on an OLB so McNamara(RPO+) gives. All(+1) shoulders the kickout and Stueber(+1) bent the FS edge but the safety is in the box (RPS-1) and meets at the LOS.
M24	2nd	11	Empty Bone X Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	Pass	7	Dumpoff	Schoonmaker	2	-0.19
Hayes(-2p) barely blocks the DE and Cade has to abandon a seam opening up to CJ to dump it to Schoonmaker in hopes he can make YAC. He cannot. (CA, 3, Prot 0/2, Hayes-2, McNamara+1)
M26	3rd	9	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	6	Batted	Wilson	Inc	-0.17
Keegan(-1p) shoved back many yards by the DT so this has to get out. Cade's throw to Wilson goes off his center's helmet and pops up, fortunately landing safely on the ground. (BA, n/a, Prot 1/2, Keegan-1, McNamara-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-3. 8 min 1st Q. Yeesh.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M29	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins T-Over	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Run	8	Counter CF	Haskins	4	-0.14
Hayes(+1) gets a good pin on the edge, Vastardis(+1) got a good kick on the SAM and All leads through the big gap seeking the FS who's the last guy to the endzone. Haskins(-1) is running over the MLB instead of following his lead blocker because the MLB slipped past Stueber(-1) who should have left the doubled DT to Keegan. think HH didn't have to get so low in the hole but definitely thought he was going to get TFL'd and made 4 yards out of it. Man that was a good gap too.
M33	2nd	6	Gun Wk Z Orbit	4-3-4	Nk Over	1	Penalty	8	False Start	Zinter	-5	-0.82
Zinter(-1) starts a millisecond early. It's a good, if a little ticky-tack, call but I wonder if M's been getting away with this and they were told to look for it.
M28	2nd	11	Offset Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Splits	1	Pass	7	TE Cross	All	5	0.04
Hayes(-1p) loses Ebiketie around after a beat and a half. Cade gets it out then takes a shot. All(+0.5y) edges and shoulders through the SAM but LB gets him down after just a few. (CA+, 3, Prot 1/2, Hayes-1, McNamara+1)
M33	3rd	6	Offset Str	3-2-6	Okie	1	Pass	7	Slant	Sainristil	Inc	-0.40
So Hayes(-2p) loses again and this has to get out. Cade puts it on Sainristil who's blanketed by a CB with his arm wrapped around and going for a ride. It ricochets to Schoonmaker (who was getting held, refs-1) but he can't grab it either. Nowhere else to put this because of the pressure so I'm going with (CA+, 1, Prot 0/2, Hayes-2, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-3. 2 min 1st Q. Well, at least we've already charted a quarter!
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M10	1st	10	Offset Str X tight	4-3-4	Nk Over	1	Run	7.5	Counter CF	Haskins	1	-0.29
Brisker is next to the ref (6 yards) at the snap and the Nk is stacked with the other safety so Cade should be checking out of a run here. RPS-2 as PSU is slanting to deliver their LBs and Brisker right to this. Vastardis(+1) turns an edge who sorta lets it happen since they know they have numbers. All(-1) misses the MLB then turns around instead of getting the safety in case Haskins(+1) breaks that. He breaks that, and the safety's and the CB that CJ(-0.5) lost, but not the WLB who came all the way around from behind. Check out of this man.
M11	2nd	9	Gun Str Y-Demi	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	Pass	7	Cross	Johnson	22	1.66
Blitz is picked up but Vastardis(-1) is getting beat back into the pocket and the DT may get his fingertips on the throw. CJ(+2y) has to fully turn around to catch this behind him. Then he goes upfield and edges the Nk. Anthony(+1) gets in a block on the edge to add an extra 10 yards to CJ's run. (MA, 2, Prot 2/3, Vastardis-1, McNamara-1)
M33	1st	10	Pistol FB Str H-Jet	4-3-4	4-3 Even	1	Run	7	Dbl Split Zone	Haskins	3	-0.39
The way the OLB widens here I would like M to add a flare read to the Jet motion. There isn't because Henning turns to block that guy unless that's an arc read for him. It gets him away but the RPS-1 good it does is wiped out because the DE knows he's not being read and steps into the hash while the MLB sees the flow action and steps outside of Vastardis who's got no angle after a second with a double. All(+0.5) pops the DE back a few yards but he can tackle there. MLB gets into HH's legs at the LOS as three defenders converge.
M36	2nd	7	Offset Str	4-3-4	4-3 Even	1	Pass	7.5	Sack	McNamara	-6	-1.30
Cade can't get through 1 read before Hayes(-2) lets Ebiketie inside. Maybe we should try holding. (PR, n/a, Prot 0/2, Hayes-2)
M30	3rd	13	Offset Str Y-Demi	3-3-5	335 Odd	2	Pass	5.5	Slip Screen	Haskins	15	2.84
Set this play up by not running it for 4 years so RPS+2 as PSU has no idea. Sainristil(-1) is unceremoniously pushed down by a LB so Haskins(+2) has stiff-arm and spin away from that guy and both safeties to get the final 6 yards.
M45	1st	10	Pistol 12 FB Z tight	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Run	8	Counter Trey Z	Edwards	1	-0.93
Safety is at 4 yards at the snap and they're slanting again. Zinter(+1) gets the DE turned in. Hayes(-1) stops blocking down to kick the MLB (that's new!) but what he should do is get the safety who ripped down right at this (RPS-1) because the MLB is already upfield and Hayes is just going to block in the back. All hits the MLB and the safety gets a free shot in the hole with the WLB right behind him as the extra guy.
M46	2nd	9	Offset 2TE Twins Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Run	7	Pin & Pull	Edwards	1	-0.80
PSU blitzing Brisker with no thought to two WRs out there (RPS-1). Stueber(+1) kicks him to make a hole but that means two unblocked LBs for Vastardis with Edwards(-1) who tripped before they're relevant.
M47	3rd	8	Offset Wk F cross	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	6	Fly	Anthony	Inc(+5)	1.14
All crosses, Cade claps and a PSU DL jumps the line (RPS+2) that was planned. Free play goes nowhere as Anthony is knocked down or pulled down or something off-screen (his sleeve is off the pad) and the ball sails way overhead. (Not charted, 0, Prot 1/1)
O48	3rd	3	Offset Twins Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	Run	8	Pin & Pull GC	Haskins	1	-1.66
Just a mess here. Zinter(+1) got a reach block by cutting the NT but Honigford(-1) can't get any vertical push on his DE and ends up putting him into Hayes, freeing his DT. Schoonmaker(-1) can't get to a LB keying the pull (RPS-1) and doesn't get the next one. Keegan(+0.5) gets a late turn on the SAM but it work. However with the CB, S, and MLB there are three guys for the ball and his blocker. Vastardis(-1)0 misses the LB, the CB gets a free shot. Everybody in the world knows where M is running and how.
O47	4th	10	Offset Goal	5-3-3	Goal	0	Run	11	Dive	Haskins	2	3.05
I hate our short yardage plays. Schoonmaker(-2) gets planted in the backfield by a DE, Haskins(+2) spins off that and reaches as a CB flies down and grabs his leg. It's just enough. I won't RPS but come ON.
O45	1st	10	Offset 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	Pass	8	Fade?	Wilson	Inc	-1.00
Looks innocuous and then Hayes(-1) lets this LB get all the way around him and graze the ball. Cade could have moved up too. Lucky it has enough to carry past the coverage. (BA, 0, Prot 0/1, Hayes-1, McNamara-1)
O45	2nd	10	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Play-Action	7	PA Slant	Anthony	13	1.60
Lol. So PSU is completely not buying the PA (RPS-2) and that leads to four PSU players on the wrong side of the blockers except Schoonmaker's. Somehow Cade slips this ridiculous ball to where Anthony(+2c) can tip it to himself and catch. (CA+, 1, Prot 1/3, TEAM-2, McNamara+2)
O32	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-3-4	Nk Over 4	1	Pass	7	RB Dumpoff	Haskins	7	0.37
This time it's Stueber(-1) who gets Ebiketie and he gets away with a big hold (refs+1). Zinter is also about to be spun through by a DT. Times up. Cade rolls out of the pocket to dump to Haskins(+1y) who collects, dodges one dude, and dives forward to make this a good gain. (CA, 3, Prot 1/2, Stueber-1)
O25	2nd	3	Gun Str Bunch Z Jet	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Run	7.5	Dbl Split Zone	Haskins	2	-0.34
Still trying to make this work. It might because there's zero respect for an Arc keeper as McNamara(-1, read-1) gives and with no edge Haskins(-1) could bounce behind what becomes two lead blockers. He hits it up inside instead for 2 yards.
O23	3rd	1	Pistol FB Goal	5-3-3	Goal	1	Run	10	Split Zone	Haskins	2	0.21
RPS+1 because PSU isn't set yet when they snap. Hayes(+1) takes advantage to remove a DT then affect a LB so Haskins can dive through a guy slanting under Honigford(-1). Even when they're successful I hate our short yardage plays.
O21	1st	10	Gun Wk Bunch	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	Pass	6	Skinny Post	Wilson	21	2.58
Cade sees they have a one-high safety on the other side and there's no way he can get over to Wilson(+2cr) in time. Perfect protection, perfect throw, touchdown. (DO, 2, Prot 2/2, McNamara+2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 7-3. 5 min 2nd Q. Let's now all forget how dumb this drive was until now.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M12	1st	10	Gun Str	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	Pass	7	RB Dumpoff	Haskins	8	0.62
Waits too long as Hayes(-1p) is losing to Ebiketie again (that's why this guy has a shield, folks). The throw takes Haskins(+2y) off his feet but he collects behind the LOS, runs through the MLB and carries a DE for a few more. This player, folks. (MA, 2, Prot 1/2, Hayes-1)
M20	2nd	2	Pistol Twins Tackle-O	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	Run	8	Counter CF	Haskins	4	-0.04
PSU is slanting again at this (RPS-1) and it gets dangerous as Keegan(-1) loses a DT into the backfield and he can give chase. All(+1) got a good kick on the SAM coming in from the slot, and Vastardis(+0.5) didn't get but at least persuaded the WLB to go inside of him which is enough for Haskins to shoot this into the free LB whom Stueber couldn't reach because of the slant. Haskins(+0.5) contacts that guy and then falls forward for a few more.
M24	1st	10	Pistol 12 FB	4-3-4	4-4 Over	1	Run	8.5	Backside of Power	Haskins	16	1.39
Remember that Rutgers game in 2017? They do that thing, where PSU is stacking the box then catch the defense overplaying the frontside and cut back inside (RPS+1) Great double from Hayes(+1) and Keegan(+1) opens up the lane and Haskins(+1) breaks Brisker's tackle after thinking about hurdling him.
M40	1st	10	Offset 2TE Twins Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	Play-Action	7	Flea Flicker	Anthony	Inc(+14)	1.21
PSU not fooled by the flicker. Cade waits on Anthony(+1route) who goes to his spot and gets impeded by the Nk. Learned that's a real thing, no matter if it's catchable, vs Nebraska. Face of SAM tells you this guy doesn't like the rule. It also might have been catchable--it lands inbounds. (Not Charted, 0, Prot n/a)
O46	1st	10	Offset Str Z Orbit	4-3-4	4-4 Over	1	Run	8.5	End-Around	Henning	-4	-1.93
Looks good at first but well-defended—DE doesn't bite on Haskins, Vastardis(-1) can't get the Nk down and that guy forces a bend, then Schoonmaker(-2) gets run by Brisker. This is a tough defense.
50	2nd	14	Gun Trips X/Y flip	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Pass	7	Out	Johnson	Inc	-0.88
Ball is thrown inside CJ(-1c) with a CB coming to hit and he drops it. (MA, 2, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
50	3rd	14	Offset Wk Z tight	3-3-5	335 Odd	2	Pass	6	Flare Screen	Haskins	12	1.46
Sainristil(+1) and All(+1) are the lead blockers, one removes the Nk the other escorts the MLB to where All could leave him and pick off the safety coming to stop this, but he doesn't disengage and that guy gets Haskins(+0.5) down a few yards short. (CA(screen), 3, Prot n/a)
O38	4th	2	I-form Heavy	5-3-3	Goal	0	Run	11	Down G Lead	Haskins	0	-4.15
PSU has 8 guys to the right side of the center and Michigan runs right for Somme reason. RPS-3 (this is more than a 4-point swing). You're asking Vastardis to reach a guy Cade has to check out of this or the box has to call timeout. Great play by Luketa makes it academic by dodging Schoonmaker but that's because he knows what's coming not a block the TE can make.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 7-3. 1 min 2nd Q. I hate our short game so so much. Next drive starts with 31 seconds and no timeouts.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Offset Str	4-3-4	Nk Over	2	Run	6	Counter Trey	Haskins	3	-0.30
0:21. Slant but given circumstances PSU isn't overloading the box this time so there's room to run. Vastardis(+1) turns in the end, Schoonmaker(-1) lets the OLB who replaces him get inside and make the tackle.
M28	2nd	7	Offset Str	4-3-4	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	TE Out	Schoonmaker	Inc	-0.56
0:14. Don't know what a 6-yard out is supposed to accomplish here but it's covered so they throw OOB. (TA, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
M28	3rd	7	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Under	3	Run	5	F Insert	Haskins	12	0.86
Zinter(+0.5) and Vastardis double to the MLB, Schoonmaker(+0.5) gets a well-timed chunk of the WLB and Haskins(+1) uses up the rest of the clock dragging a DE into two safeties then fighting them to get free.
Drive Notes: EoH. 7-6. Eo2Q. Don't understand what we're trying to do at the end of this half so I just charted it.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Offset Dbl Stacks	4-3-4	Nk Wide	1	RPO	6	ZR/Flash Screens	Haskins	3	-0.30
The DE can't play the ZR any better than this. He is perfectly square to the RB but stopped outside of the QB. Hat tip to good play because Stueber(+1) got to the LB and PSU was slanting their DTs (RPS-1) to the frontside planning on this guy making a play. Haskins gets the handoff and can't escape. You'd need a QB in the 7+ range to break out of this.
M28	2nd	7	Gun Ace	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	8	Pin & Pull GC	Haskins	12	1.62
Both safeties are at 7 yards and PSU is blitzing the WLB into the gap the G and C leave which should kill this in the backfield (RPS-2). M fake reads the backside DE which does slow him a step. Zinter(+1) has a titanic clash with the DE who wants to plant him inside but they stalemate and Haskins(+1) hops over that to pinch off the blitzer. We're still in danger but Vastardis(+1) gets the MLB turned and HH bounces into the clear. Would have gone MANY but Schoonmaker(-1) can't seal Brisker even with Keegan(+1), who released past the blitz to go be useful, getting shove in. That drives HH to the sideline behind a good play-long occupational block by Wilson(+0.5)
M40	1st	10	Pistol Ace	4-3-4	4-4 Even	1	Pass	8	Fly	Wilson	Inc	-1.12
Take a shot deep, Wilson(+0.5) has maybe a half step on this CB so this will take a DO or a circus catch to complete. It's too long to lay out for. (IN, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
M40	2nd	10	Gun Str	3-3-5	335 Odd	1	Pass	7	Shallow Cross	Johnson	25	2.91
Blitz picked up and M runs a shallow cross under verts that gets CJ(+1y) wide open (RPS+1) underneath. He hops out of a CB's tackle but gets taken down by Luketa, who was the guy in coverage, as Sainristil(+0.5) harasses Brisker. I have mad respect for Luketa--that's a DE tracking down a guy who was PFF's fastest player of the week one time this year.
O35	1st	10	Offset 2TE Twins Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	1	Run	8	Pin & Pull GC	Haskins	6	0.23
Edge shoots inside Zinter(-1) who could let him this as Vastardis(+1) knocks that guy down and keeps going to pick off Brisker. Big gap now because Schoonmaker(+1) put Luketa inside the RT and Anthony(+0.5) temporarily locked the SAM outside. All(-1) could not get the MLB, almost holds him and stops, but that guy now has an angle to get Haskins(+1), who drags him and the SAM for extras.
O29	2nd	4	Pistol FB Heavy	4-3-4	4-4 Over	1	Run	9	Power Lead	Haskins	12	0.16
Harbraughffense. PSU is slanting so RPS-1 as usual since Jones has no shot at the MLB. Honigford(+1) starts the correction by blocking Luketa into the SAM to bump him off pursuit for a second. Keegan(-1) can't turn Brisker in but doesn't panic and doesn't hold, just keeps moving him so Schoonmaker(+1) can get around and punk the CB while locking the MLB inside that. Haskins(+2) sheds Brisker and hops back inside and now Jones(-0.5) could be relevant again but he doesn't get much on the SAM and he gets to go on a Haskins ride. This is why UFR takes so long, Jim.
O17	1st	10	Offset Str Y-Demi	4-3-4	4-3 Over 4	2	Penalty	6	False Start	Haskins	-5	-0.38
Haskins(-1) rocks and it's flagged just like the PSU one wasn't. Randy Sklar(+1 hot take) suggested they do this to get out of the red zone.
O22	1st	15	Offset Str Y-Demi	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	Pass	7	Hitch	Wilson	9	0.35
Haskins(+1b) levels Tarburton (the 3rd DE) on a chip—guessing that was planned for one of the other two DEs. It also gives Cade a nice moment to find Wilson(+1route) under soft coverage (RPS+1). (CA, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
O13	2nd	6	Pistol 12 FB	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Play-Action	7	PA TE Wheel	All	12	1.66
Haskins(-1p) sets up too low on the blitzing WLB and so Cade has to put this off his back foot under pressure. Safety bites on the fake (RPS+1) and Cade arcs it in perfectly so All(+1y) can Kaiju down the sideline to within a breath of the endzone. QB1 play. (DO+, 3, Prot 1/2, McNamara+2)
O1	1st	Goal	Pistol Bone	4-3-4	Goal	NA	Play-Action	NA	PA quick seam	Wilson	1	0.89
Tempo(22) and they run Franklin's Vanderbilt OT play against him: Gattis go get some RPS+2 on your old sensei, as both CJ and Wilson are open and Cade chooses Wilson so he can use the ref as a natural pick. Ref ducks, CB hits him and goes airborne, and Wilson cradles it like a babe. (DO, 3, Prot n/a, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 14-6. 11 min 3rd Q. Great drive for McNamara.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M14	1st	10	Empty Trips	4-3-4	Nk Over	2	Run	6	Tight End Around	All	0	-0.42
Cute idea, badly executed. Vastardis(-1) can't kick the DE who bends the run into the backfield. Stueber can't get to the MLB (RPS-1) who's ready and widening. Sainristil loses Brisker but stays on him and gets a kick finally that lets All(+1y) shake the MLB and fight back to the line of scrimmage. Wilson(-1) block also ineffective.
M14	2nd	10	Gun Wk Z Tight	4-2-5	Nk Over 4	1	Pass	7	Fade?	Johnson	Inc	-0.19
CJ has his guy beat inside and Cade throws a fade short, CJ is looking for it high and inside unless that's a feint, either way he thinks it's going way deeper. (IN, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
M14	3rd	10	Offset Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	6	Fade	Wilson	Inc	-0.08
Ebiketie jumps and M snaps thinking he's in the neutral zone but he held up. This one I thik is on Wilson(-2c) who looks for this very late. It falls at his feet and he pops his chest in the universal "that's on me" signal. (Not charted, 2, Prot 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-6. 8 min 3rd Q. Whatever sight read they're running this drive it's not working.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Gun FB Heavy	4-3-4	4-4 Under	1	Run	9	ZR Down G Lead	Haskins	12	1.03
Honigford(+1) gets rocked back but then buries Luketa. Zinter(+2) works around that and gets outside the CB, pinning him and Brisker inside. All(-1) gets through but looks back instead of finding somebody to block the pulls up. Vastardis(+1) is loose and delays the MLB until he can't anymore and lets go before it's a hold. That guy gets Haskins out.
M37	1st	10	Pistol 2TE Y-Flex	4-3-4	4-4 Even	1	Run	8	Zone Stretch	Haskins	2	-0.51
Close to breaking big. Keegan(+1) cuts a DT lined up inside of him and guy goes to the ground. Vastardis(+1) reached the DT Zinter was on, and Hayes(+1) got over the Keegan mess and inside of the Nk. Haskins(-1) takes this too far inside, Stueber(-1) let Luketa come under him when the DE is already engaged with Schoonmaker and just needs a pop, and Zinter(-1) misses on the MLB who was running for the edge.
M39	2nd	8	Gun Trips	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Pass	7	Hook	Sainristil	7	0.45
Protection lasts for three reads (Ebiketie isn't on the field) and that's Sainristil(+1route) who sat down in a zone. Pitch and catch, but two guys are there to stop him from getting the last yard. (CA, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
M46	3rd	1	Offset Goal	5-3-3	Goal	1	Run	9	Dive	Haskins	3	1.18
Zinter(+1) and Stueber(+1) clear out the right side and that's plenty.
M49	1st	10	Gun Str Bunch	4-3-4	Goal	1	Play-Action	9	PA Deep Hitch	Johnson	Inc	-1.13
PSU stays in their goal line look. Token PA gets CJ(+1route) wide open and Cade overthrows him. (IN, 0, Prot 2/2, McNamara-2)
M49	2nd	10	Pistol Str	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Penalty	7	False Start	Zinter	-5	-1.05
Oops. Zinter(-1)
M44	2nd	15	Offset Str Bunch	4-2-5	4-3 Under	2	Pass	7.5	Drag	Sainristil	4	-0.13
Has time but leaves the pocket when Luketa is going inside Stueber. Wish they would show the rest of the play so we could know if anyone else was open because I suspect someone was. Out of pocket means he has to force this where the guy trailing Sainristil and the guy covering Johnson nearby can prevent YAC. (TA, 2, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
M48	3rd	11	Offset Str F-slot	3-3-5	335 Odd	2	Pass	6	Shallow Cross	Johnson	4	-0.12
Orlovsky explains as well as I can. They try to get the same cross that CJ got 25 on before but PSU is sitting on it. TA not an RPS because that should open up All past the sticks and the protection vs 3 guys is holding but Cade forces it. (TA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-6. 3 min 3rd Q. If not for the false start it's 4th and 2 on the PSU 43. Punt wars: M can't stop Robbins's from bouncing in the endzone, PSU does theirs so next drive begins at the 1 yard line.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M1	1st	10	Pistol FB Heavy	5-3-3	Goal	0	Run	11	Split Zone	Haskins	1	-0.20
Schoonmaker(-1) gets shot through by Brisker. All(-1) gives himself up so Haskins can wedge forward a yard instead of trying to bounce that where only a CB is protecting the edge. If only we had the personnel/guts to run an arc here. Also go to the NFL already Brisker!
M2	2nd	9	Goal	5-3-3	5-3 Under	1	Run	8	QB Sneak	McNamara	5	0.03
Tempo(22) and it works as PSU isn't expecting a sneak. Then Haskins(+1) comes down to shove his QB for a gain that actually sets up a running down. RPS+1 I'm here for it.
M7	3rd	4	Empty 2TE/3w	4-3-4	Nk Split	1	Pass	7	RB Slant	Haskins	3	-0.06
It's open (RPS+1) under a pick play and here I wish we had Corum (or Edwards) because Haskins(-1c) goes to his knee to catch this then hops over the LOS, meaning he's down a yard short. Pass also could have not been at his knees. (MA, 2, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-6. 13 min 4th Q. Many PSU 4th down conversions later M gets the ball back tied with 7:30 remaining.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol Twins Tackle-O	4-3-4	4-3 Over	1	Run	7.5	Counter Trey	Haskins	-1	-0.80
Hayes(-3) lets Luketa slip inside of him. That changes everyone's angles because this is supposed to get outside so the MLB can redirect and kill it when Haskins(+1) makes the first guy miss. Hate giving a guy a -3 but that's really really bad. Just tackle him man, they're not calling shit today.
M24	2nd	11	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	TE Dumpoff	All	Inc	-0.29
Hayes(-1p) is beat again inside by Ebiketie. Cade is checking down and Ebiketie bats it. Had room to roll out and find Wilson here. (BA, n/a, Prot 1/2, Hayes-1, McNamara-1)
M24	3rd	11	Empty	4-2-5	Dime	1	Pass	5	Sack	McNamara	-8	-4.26
The disaster. Hayes(-2p) run right around by Ebiketie who sack strips Cade. PSU collects their 4th/4 fumbles this game. RPS-1 because given what you've seen so far you have to give that guy some help—going 5 wide on 3rd and 11 means you need your OTs to survive long enough for your guys to get into routes. (PR, n/a, Prot 0/3, Hayes-2, TEAM-1)
M25	1st	10	Offset 11 Twins	4-3-4	4-4 Over	1	Run	8	F Insert	Haskins	17	1.52
Tether your fandom to Hassan Haskins(+2) and let him pull you for a ride. Also RPS+1 because PSU has the FS playing LB and he gets stuck in the wash. Schoonmaker(+1) textbook clears out the MLB. Zinter(+0.5) got control of a DT so Vastardis(-1) could release to the WLB but he misses. HH runs through that guy, and the Nk, and meets both safeties at the line to gain, then takes them on a Haskins ride of 7 more.
M42	1st	10	Offset Str Y-Flex	4-3-4	Nk Over	2	Run	6	ZR Belly	Haskins	4	-0.17
The WRs are blocking like this is a real read. McNamara(-1, read-) gets a tough read that the WLB shades to the give with an extra step inside, but that's not enough for Cade to keep. WLB gets to Haskins at the LOS and Haskins(+1) stumbles forward behind a good double by Stueber(+0.5) for four.
M46	2nd	6	Offset 11 Twins	4-3-4	Nk over	2	Run	7	F Insert	Haskins	4	-0.17
Sainristil points at the Nk cheating into the box but they don't check out and find PSU is pinching at the gap they just gashed two plays ago (RPS-2). Vastardis(+1) catches the pinching DT and Stueber(+1) gets a solid kick so there's a nice backside gap to cut into but the Nk is waiting there and so is the MLB because Schoonmaker's lead block is ruined. They meet Haskins(+0.5) at 2 yards and he spins to turn 3rd and 4 into 3rd and 2.
50	3rd	2	Offset 11 Bone	4-3-4	Goal	0	Run	10	Dive	Haskins	2	1.21
Tempo(18) as Michigan wanders for 10 secs then races to the line. Vastardis(+0.5) and Zinter(+0.5) and Stueber(+0.5) grade a road while Ebiketie backs Schoonmaker, who gets an effective PSU-style block that lets Haskins dive by and just get this.
O48	1st	10	Offset Str	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	Run	7	F Insert	Haskins	1	-0.84
Third time in five plays they run this. PSU (RPS-2) has Brisker shooting down at this so that he's in the backfield before Haskins is out of it. Yeesh.
O47	2nd	9	Offset Trips	4-2-5	Nk Odd Split	1	Pass	7	Mesh	All	47	1.62
Goes in the Sap Archives under the label "All the way." PSU blitzes the left side and finds 5 guys blocking that side (RPS+2). They're also in cover 1 vs crossing routes. Sainristil's defender crashes into the CB tagging All(+2y) who goes...the distance, dusting his CB and getting over the pylon despite playing on a bad ankle. McNamara's pass is on the money so he never has to break stride. Chefs kiss. (DO, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 21-17. 3 min 4th Q. Defensive heroics ensue and M gets the ball back on the PSU 47 with 3 and three timeouts to burn down.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O33	1st	10	Pistol FB Heavy	4-3-4	Goal	0	Run	11	Power Lead	Haskins	4	2.85
2:51 (3 PSU TOs). This is going outside and Vastardis(-0.5) got rocked back, but Zinter(+1) and Stueber(+1) pinned a DT and LB inside so Haskins(+0.5) cuts inside through some arms to pick up 5 (or 4.75 they mark it exactly on the field but the scorer calls it 4, worriers).
O29	2nd	6	Pistol FB Heavy	5-2-4	Goal	1	Run	10	Power Lead	Haskins	5	0.08
2:45 (2 TOs). Haskins nearly stumbles in a deep patch, but stays up which is good because they've got some nice blocking set up for him out here despite PSU selling out for this (no RPS it's a goal line situation basically). Jones(+1) rides Ebiketie to the opposite hash. Schoonmaker(+1) deposited the MLB with Hayes(+1) who came off the slant to seal so Schoonmaker can cut off Luketa. Zinter(+0.5) gets the WLB popped inside. All(-1) passes up the FS and whiffs on the CB but Haskins(+1) spins to within inches of the first down.
O24	3rd	1	Goal	5-2-4	Goal	NA	Run	NA	QB Sneak	McNamara	2	0.23
2:40 (1 TO). MLB leaps over the pile and McNamara(+1) sees that and goes under him. They get it.
O22	1st	10	Pistol FB Heavy	5-2-4	Goal	1	Run	10	Split Zone	Haskins	3	-0.13
2:06 (1 TOs). PSU slants heavy left, Keegan(+1) turns his DT upfield.
O19	2nd	7	Pistol FB Heavy	5-2-4	5-2 Over	1	Run	10	Power Lead	Haskins	12	0.58
2:00 (No TOs). WLB blitzes, Hayes(+1) wisely lets the slant go and picks him up as Jones(+2) puts Ebiketie on skates so that he's in the path of the MLB. That makes the play so Zinter can just harass the CB until All(+1) pops him into the FS. Haskins(+1) gains the line to ballgame and spins back inside despite the CB's urgent pulling at him to go out of bounds.
Drive Notes: EoG. 21-17. Three kneeldowns and we're outta here.

So, uh, all those things you said about the other side of the ball about drama and luck and the offense actually being pretty dumb and the defense being really good and offensive tackles.

Yes.

You sounded pretty confident there.

I know.

Got a little dismissive of Penn State’s offense.

I know I know I know.

Especially their left tackle.

I am completely aware.

Okay, just wanted to make sure you know you deserve this.

I do.

Yeah but guess what?

What?

That was a first down.

It was a rather silly first down, but no sillier than Penn State tying it on a similar “DO”/“Circus Catch” combo that should never have been.

Michigan and Penn State are a pair of Spiderman Pointing.gif programs, no doubt about it. Franklin had the Big Dumb of the Game with his fake field goal, but Michigan was also content to slog it out on a sleet-drenched field by running into eight-man boxes with seven guys. PSU’s tackles were hopeless against Hutchinson and Ojabo; Ryan Hayes got abused until Michigan put away the long pass plays, then taken to the woodshed on the drive right after PSU tied it in the 4th quarter.

The programs get here different ways. Franklin puts his bets on his skill player recruiting and cleverness the way that Harbaugh leans on being hard-nosed. Both are equally foolish because Franklin isn’t that clever and Michigan isn’t so strong that they can spot a good defense two extra players to a side and still get two yards.

Count how many players Penn State has to the right of the center. They ran INTO that. For a team with good, powerful linemen, good blocking tight ends, and Hassan Haskins to not be automatic for two yards is an issue. The reason it’s an issue is they take away their own advantages.

They don’t use the quarterback in the running game, they rarely pass, and they do crazy unnecessary things like add tight ends then telegraph which gap they’re going to so the defenders who followed the tight ends back to the formation are in position to do something about it.

And yet they managed to put together a coherent offense by the end, and Penn State needed to collect all the fumbles to stay in it. Drives, categorized:

• Touchdown drives of 90 yards (15 plays), 75 yards (9 plays), and 75 yards (6 plays)
• 8-play, 23-yard drive to end the game.
• 7-play, 50-yard drive to kill the end of the 1st half but ended on 4th and 2.
• 7-play, 27-yard drive that stalls on a false start.
• Five(!) three-and-outs, two aided by false starts, and one ending on a sack-strip fumble.

If Michigan’s offense was an original Super Mario Kart driver, we’d be Bowser or Donkey Kong—one of the burly dudes who will trounce you once they get revved up but have a rough time getting restarted if they bump into a wall.

I remember them getting bottled up outside, then not getting bottled up outside. Was there a difference?

Yeah, so strategically we all thought Michigan was going to copy the Illinois attack of power runs that tried to turn in the edges, since PSU was using their excellent DEs to cover for a missing star defensive tackle. Penn State anticipated this attack, still slanted their DEs inside to keep the interior clogged, but had a safety flying down to add a man to the gap. Watch #1 Jaquan Brisker, who’s going to be an excellent pro, here as he creeps down the bottom hash:

Dude is at 7 yards when they hike it, 4 yards at the mesh point, and closer to the line of scrimmage than Haskins when the play resolves.

Most teams when they do that, e.g. Rutgers, will stick in a one-high look all day, forcing you to try to beat them at the sidelines. But if you scroll back up to the video you can see PSU was leaving their other safety on the hash mark. Gattis picked up on that and used it to score Michigan’s first touchdown. Here again you see Brisker, #1, walking down on our right, and #16 staying much higher on the field side. But #16 still has to play one-high, meaning he’s in the wrong spot to help in cover 1 if you send a fast Hawaiian down the seam.

That was a first-half punishment for that behavior, but probably wasn’t going to keep working. In the second half Michigan had a plan for dealing with Brisker. It wasn’t more speed in space, but the opposite: more beef. In fact the reaction was similar to Bo’s in the 1986 game Harbaugh guaranteed: If you have one tight end they’ll key your tight end side and snuff out your two receiver side with a high-low. If you have two tight ends however the formation is balanced. The defense keeps adding guys to the box to keep up, but eventually those guys are getting in each others’ way.

This was the point I thought the running game started to break through, but it too should have been dead on arrival. PSU has nine in the box. They do the same slant inside and fling the linebackers out where a releasing OL can’t get to all of them (circled in blue). However by moving the edge one spot over they’ve changed the roles of defenders around. Brisker isn’t the free hitter, he’s the one eating the first block.

He’s going to be an NFL safety but he’s not going to stand up to a 330-pound Trevor Keegan, and once he does get turned inside, #13 the MLB gets stuck inside of that block as well and that leaves Schoonmaker and Haskins versus a cornerback. Taking it one step heavier took advantage of Penn State’s refusal to change personnel by placing the onus of defending power on the defensive backs. This was true right up until the end of the game—both power runs to get first downs and kill the clock on the final drive came down to Michigan’s heavies abusing Penn State’s lights as the linebackers watched helplessly from one gap inside.

Another power wrinkle was one that Michigan added during the week: Have Haskins check for a backcut into the middle if the defensive line didn’t replace the linebackers and safeties hopping over to the playside. Here you get a good view not just of the LBs hopping to the left when they see counter action, but also the left DT’s failure to get across Keegan, who’s thus able to combo down to the last LB on the right (the hybrid one) and spring Haskins through an A gap.

Haskins ripped that cutback for a free first down several times in the first half. After that Penn State chilled out a bit with the extra linebackers, and the edge was open for business again.

Harbaugh/Gattis wracked up a ton of RPS-minuses early in the game trying to probe for Penn State’s response. Once they had it figured out, I think they gave Haskins the keys and let him read the playside tackle to make sure the Nittany linebackers were always wrong.

That doesn’t seem very Harbaugh/*Gattis* if you ask me.

No doubt Harbaugh (and Sherrone Moore, and Matt Weiss, and Jay Harbaugh) is (are) involved with the offensive game-planning, and the power run stuff has never been Gattis’s main thing. This little beauty however was very much his:

I know because James Franklin ran that play at Vanderbilt as a pop pass to win an overtime game. I can’t find the clip but it was one I saw and filed away for the HTTV 2019 article on Michigan’s new offensive coordinator. The part about using the ref as a natural pick was what stuck out to me, and came around again in the 2019 spring game.

We also had two catch and run plays from Cornelius Johnson. This is the very definition of Speed in Space. It’s a play that was on Page 1 of the offense because the offense expected to have Ronnie Bell. Johnson uses the space afforded to make a play. Note how the other receivers are all moving left. If this caught man to man you have a footrace one way and if it’s caught on the run there are suddenly a lot of defenders who were footracing the other way. If it catches zone, as it does here, there should be room underneath to turn 2nd and 9 into 3rd and short.

Gattis’s fingerprints are all over this passing game, and conceptually I think it’s the best passing game we’ve had here since Jedd Fisch’s.

The passing game that Michigan only uses as a decoy or when they have to?

There’s a difference that I think a lot of coaches don’t recognize fully between being what you are, and adhering to a philosophy that got you there. Fans get hung up on this too: Power is HARBAUGH, RPOs and slinging passes to crossing routes is GATTIS, and these are constantly at odds. The heart and soul of this Michigan offense isn’t the playcalling; it’s the playmaker.

I think I know where you’re going with this. And I think I need something for context first.

Thirty-six touches for 201 yards, and 5.6 YPP, with nothing longer than 17.

No I mean something in different shades of blue.

The chart.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hayes	6	16	-10	Everyone gets a bad day. It was a very bad day.
Keegan	4.5	3	+1.5	I was making comps to Glasgow then realized he basically is one.
Vastardis	9	5.5	+3.5	Cleary the guy they wanted pulling.
Filiaga	0	0	0	DNP
Stueber	7	4	+3	Held Ebiketie once and got left alone.
Zinter	9	4	+5	The other guy they wanted pulling.
Barnhart			0	DNP
Jones	3	0.5	+2.5	Extra TE, helped seal the game.
Atteberry			0	DNP
Crippen			0	DNP
All	9	5	+4	Limited duty, rusty targeting, a play for the ages.
Schoonmaker	4.5	8	-3.5	Asked to do super-hard things against Ebiketie and Luketa.
Honigford	2	2	0	The backside TE on tackle over.
Selzer			0	DNP
Hibner			0	DNP
TOTAL	54	48	+6	One big loss and otherwise small positives against a ROUGH front.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McNamara	1	2	-1	At least one of those reads was real. Clever sneaker.
McCarthy			0	DNP
Villari			0	DNP
Haskins	24	6	+18	When there was but one set of footprints: That was when I was carrying the team.
Corum			0	DNP
Edwards	0	1	-1	Two carries.
Dunlap			0	DNP
TOTAL	25	9	+16	When there were none I was hurdling fools.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
CJ	4	1.5	+2.5	Speed in space.
Sainristil	2.5	1	+1.5	A couple of his patented blocks, one patent rejected.
Henning	0	0	0	Had the one end-around, wrong team to try it against.
Wilson	4	3	+1	Still not a blocker and a bad route vs two TDs with a wrist cast.
Baldwin	0	0	0	DNC
Anthony	4.5	0	+4.5	When he was on the field he was noticed. Can't keep him off it.
TOTAL	15	5.5	+8.5	New charting work in progress, feels more correct.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	29	48	60%	Hayes-12, Stueber-1, Vastardis-1, Keegan-1,
RPS	16	23	-7	First half was bad, big second half comeback.

Um, is Hayes alright?

Can we save that? You brought up Hassan.

Right.

Once again broke the charts, and this time I’m not taking arguments when someone says I give him too many points because I held back so hard every time. When he broke a blitz right into the spot where two linemen just vacated on a pull—the sort of thing that should kill any play dead—Haskins got a point.

Yep, one point. For turning a coulda been 3rd and 11 TFL on the second play of the 2nd half into a first down. If #13 of “Linebacker U” wants to appeal on the grounds that his arm was harder to get out of than I’m crediting it I’ll hear it.

I will admit that I gave him a point here for a pass block, which is a that I normally just minus if it’s bad. This comes not from Haskins bias but seeing a hundred RBs and TEs begrudgingly offer Hutchinson a perfunctory shoulder while all the other skill players are out running full routes. This is Haskins’s approach to chip duty.

Oh I thought you meant *chip* him, like at the end of Fargo. I’m going to run my route now!

And yes, I did give him two (2) points for this immediate response to Penn State kicking their go-ahead field goal.

I thought getting through the hole and breaking #23’s tackle was worth a point and taking the Penn State safeties for a ride to the spot they should be covering was worth another point. Anyone in the Black Pit of Negative Expectations at that moment was welcome to come along. Latching on to Hassan Haskins has been the single most rewarding thing I’ve ever done with my fandom. There’s still time if you’d like to: he’s 15 yards from 1,000 on the season.

He also more than doubled his passing yards for the season, with five catches and only one of them planned.

That is called a “screen” if you’d forgotten because Michigan hasn’t run one in a decade. Penn State certainly didn’t think they’d be the first to get one, and paid with a flaming, raging, poisonous sword of doom rampaging through the secondary.

The bulk of Haskins’s passing day was dumpoffs, which consistently went better than they were supposed to.

People keep tweeting at me that they want to be talked out of buying a #25 HASKINS jersey. I am not the person who will talk you out of this. I will also talk you into buying one of those tacky canvas prints over a pinewood frame that people decorate their houses with that says:

When there was but one set of footprints:
That was when I was carrying the team.
When there were none, I was hurdling a fool.

There was the one time I wished Corum (or Edwards) was in for Haskins, that the pass out of Michigan’s endzone that took him to his knee and brought up a 4th and 1 and a punt. Even if the pass was low, I think a scurrier type catches that slant and gets at least one YAC to move the chains. It’s a small complaint that was only relevant because of circumstances that are unlikely to be replicated.

I was going to say why don’t we use him in the Haskinscat package if we’re not going to ever pass on short downs, but then I remembered we have a quarterback who’s a true run threat.

Uh, Cade is not…oh him.

Yeah, where did he go?

I think the more relevant question is when in this sleety, windy muck of a day would you want anyone but Cade McNamara under center?

I take it the chart was good?

Nah, the chart was like the offense: *HIT* or miss.

CADE MCNAMARA

 

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	3+	3(3)-						2			1		67%	+5		4/5	2/7
Washington	1	3(2)-			2	(1)			3	1(1)	2		40%	-8		5/5	4/9
NIU	2	7+ -			1	1							100%	+11		1/2	1/2
Rutgers	3+	5-			1	1				5xx	1		57%	+2.5		2/2	1/6
Wisconsin	6	13	1		1	2		1	1	4x	2x		71%	+10.5		2/3	1/2
Nebraska	3+	13(2)-			3	6		3	3	6	1x		55%	-1.5		1/3	2/2
Northwestern	2	11(5)+			2	2		1	3	4xx	1		59%	-1		5/7	5/8
Michigan St	9++	19(1)+ -	1		1	1		2	5	5	4		64%	+20.5		1/2	1/1
Indiana	4	8(1)	1		4				1	1	1		81%	+10		0/0	3/6
Penn State	4+	8+++(2)			2	4		3	3	3			57%	+0		0/0	0/1

(reminder: you can hover over the letters in the headers if you forget what they mean, or there’s an explainer in the glossary)

JJ MCCARTHY

 

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	1+++	2				3		1x		1			60%	-2		0/0
NIU		4+							1		1		67%	+4		2/2	3/3
Wisconsin	1												100%	+2		2/2	4/6
Nebraska		1											100%	-		1/1	2/2
Northwestern	1	(2)								2	1		25%	+2		0/1	1/2
Michigan St.		2(1)											100%	+2		1/1	4/4
Indiana	1	1			1	1			3x	3	2x		20%	-6		2/3	1/2

A 57% downfield rating and +/- of zero is not good.

You’ll note some big differences in this week’s charting:

• Four +’s that denote throws made under pressure.
• Two pressure events.
• Four “marginal” passes that mostly led to yards after the catch anyways.
• Three batted throws.

The closest thing to it was the Nebraska game, which always just happened to be played against a very good defensive front. Pressure any quarterback and his efficiency goes down. There were certainly times when it felt like he was just a “game manager.” Former Detroit Lion Dan Orlovsky came very close to saying it in his analysis of this play.

I thought Cade made plays when Michigan needed him to. There was the one drive when it seemed like he and his receivers were not on the same page. My guess is those were “sight reads” or option routes—Run & Shoot/Air Raid stuff—that Michigan wanted to try against PSU in case the cornerbacks’ fear of Johnson/Wilson’s speed unlocked cheap chunks. Both times the receivers didn’t turn around for passes that landed harmlessly and just inbounds. Wilson’s had to have been on him because he said so and Harbaugh said something to him after. Johnson’s got credited against McNamara—on so few throws that’s the difference between being over or under the 60% downfield success rating Mendoza line.

That said, we saw a few throws he hadn’t made all year. Like this one to All with a guy in his face.

And perhaps the throw of the year:

And there was also the one he fitted to Andrel Anthony that I didn’t know how to grade because it went to the only spot it could, and also required a crazy double-catch. Offsetting his dead-on passes were three batted balls. One went off Vastardis’s helmet, another sailed way past where his receiver was running, and a third flittered about in the linebacker level—all very dangerous places for an oblong spheroid to be airborne. Unfortunately that seems to be baked in to the player: McNamara isn’t any taller than I am, and his release point is kind of low, so he’s going to get those from time to time. Shoring up the pass protection should mitigate them.

Speaking of that, Ryan Hayes…

Sigh. So yeah, that was a disaster.

It maybe feels better to have that happen when we’re doing it all the time too. Ebiketie is the #9 DE in the country to PFF; Hutchinson and Ojabo are #1 and #8, and #s 2 through 5 are at mid-majors, meaning you can make the case that a majority of the nation’s best college edge rushers were playing in this game. Luketa is at #30, and Ohio State’s Zach Harrison waits at #22, and the best in the rearview mirror is WMU’s Ali Fayad (the guy I’m always going on about) at #34. My point is Ebiketie’s going to make a lot of money doing that to NFL tackles very soon, and Hayes has not seen anything like him this year outside of practice.

I do not know what happened in-house, but I assume Hayes won enough reps against Hutchinson that they trusted him to hang without help. It’s possible that Ryan and Aidan have been battling each other so often at this point that Hayes can anticipate things better—every edge rusher is different and in college they all fall into patterns. Anyway it became apparent early that he was outclassed. Their third play from scrimmage was one bad beat, Hayes lost to Ebiketie and Luketa in quick succession on 2nd and 3rd down of the next drive.

You’ll note Stueber has Ebiketie on this one and is doing fine, and also doing it straight up—I dare you to find one play on the other side of the ball where an elite DE is blocked and the blocker’s hands are inside. I did tag Stuebs for one “oh you gotta call that” (refs+1) grab, though he cleverly kept it to a wrist so the motion looked like Ebiketie trying to go inside. But that was it from either of Michigan’s tackles. In the most lenient league in college football, Michigan’s OTs are surprisingly un-grabby. I don’t know what to do with that; I cheered for Taylor Lewan for four years so it’s not like I demand angels.

One Ebiketie mitigation technique I did catch Hayes using was one (1) Nebraska-grade illegal formation to get a head start on his pass set.

Unfortunately this also tipped a pass and I think his coaches told him to cut it out afterwards. For most of the game then Michigan avoided long-developing pass plays. The way I grade the pressure metric is a four-man rush on a quick pass like a slant is 1/1, and then I add one for every extra rusher or every two beats the QB has to make it through his progressions. This line has usually been good to deliver McNamara to his third read (2/2), but Michigan mostly scrapped those in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Then the disaster.

Note that Hayes still has no help. We got one instance (ironically against PSU’s backup guy) of a chip from the RB, but here we are in a critical must-survive-two-beats situation and going empty, and by this point Hayes has lost more of these reps than he’s won. I don’t know if he was hurt today or slowed by the conditions or what, but we’ve seen all the myriad ways Michigan’s opponents deal with this problem, and nobody in the country should have more practice at it than the offense that goes up against Michigan’s pass rushers six days a week.

My best guess is they gambled on Hayes and he lost. That’s disappointing considering our hopes were his natural agility and length would result in a first round blindside type. There’s still time for that too. He’s clearly not on that level.

Any other questions?

What about Erick All? The winning score! How’d that happen?

Good ol’ Mesh.

Michigan has barely run that this year, but it’s a college staple because it’s so effective even after teams have practiced it. It’s Ryan Day’s whole jam, which makes it weird that Penn State was so unprepared for it mere weeks after facing Ohio State. But unprepared they were. The Nit at fault here is the nickel, #25, who starts over Sainristil on the far right.

Given their alignment, I think #25’s lane is supposed to be along the 45 yard line while #4’s level is just inside the 40, but #25 drifts upwards to avoid the referee, who’s part of the natural pick by design: Sainristil runs his route right where the ref always steps up to to make sure there’s nowhere for #25 to go.

They also kept Haskins home to help the protection(!), using three receivers crossing from the right and bumping All’s cross into the primary read. That meant everyone in the secondary was moving one way when All got the ball going the opposite direction. #SpeedinSpace. Cade’s pass is on the money so he doesn’t have to break stride, and All’s stride, even with an injured ankle, does the rest.

Michigan also caught Penn State tipping a blitz that overloaded the left side, and set their protection that way.

I can’t figure out who our best (non-Ronnie Bell) receiver is any given week.

Sooner or later it’s going to be Andrel Anthony. This catch was ridiculous:

And I was surprised to see he was up to a +4.5/-0 on a day when he only had 16 snaps. Poor Daylen Baldwin only had four; he has another year of eligibility after this one but Anthony’s emergence probably means there’s no more need for a transfer to keep his spot warm. Anyway if you’re one of those mad about Gattis please spare a minute to consider his receiving corps lost the best recruit in the country AFTER he was signed this year, and is still going into 2022 with Ronnie Bell, Cornelius Johnson, Roman Wilson, Mike Sainristil, AJ Henning, *and* this freshman who’s probably going to be the second-biggest star of all of them.

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson	2		1/2	2/2		14	2/12	8/11	20/21
Baldwin						4	0/6	6/8	5/7
Sainristil		0/1	1/1	1/1		3	2/8	4/5	12/12
Henning						3	0/1	1/2	2/2
Wilson	2		1/2	2/2		2	2/3	3/4	13/14
Anthony	2	1/1				3	2/6	2/2	5/5
Dixon						1	0/1		1/1
x Bell x							1/2	1/1
All				3/3		2	0/3	5/6	23/23
Schoonmaker	1			1/1		4	0/4	1/1	10/10
Honigford						2		0/1	1/1
Selzer							0/1	0/1
Hibner
Corum						2	1/1	1/1	18/21
Haskins			2/2	3/3		1		2/2	8/8
Edwards						1	0/1		1/1

Routes: Anthony+, Sainristil+, Johnson+.

Cornelius Johnson had two #SpeedInSpace Ronnie Bell-style YAC-a-thons in this game. I discussed the first in the Gattis section above. Here’s the other.

Roman Wilson also had two touchdowns and a pretty route snapped off underneath soft coverage. On the flipside, they tried a few sight reads on one drive and none of them connected, one of which was clearly on Wilson not snapping his route off when he should have. Guessing the injury and all the shuffling has made it hard for any one guy to develop that sort of timing.

Who’s Mr. Worldwide this week?

[Patrick Barron]

As a reminder, our criteria here are versatility, the ability to make your teammates better, being cool against long odds, and enjoying time spent under highway overpasses. This is decided after the second UFR. Your top three this week:

1. DJ Turner II. Won the day against an All-American receiver. Hung out under two-high coverages, tight ends, and long fly balls to Because. Why? I don’t know, he’s on third, and I don’t give a damn.

2. Hassan Haskins: Forty touches, massive positive, ran inside and outside, did some reading, was also their leading target in the passing game and had the game’s best block. Counter Trey is the most highway overpass of running plays.

3. Aidan Hutchinson: Spent most of the day taking on double teams and turning them into highway overpasses he could run under for saxxxxx.

HMs (half points). Mazi Smith, Andrel Anthony, Andrew “Didn’t get beat by those DEs” Stueber.

3-2-1 point system so our standings are:

• 10.5: Aidan Hutchinson
• 8: Hassan Haskins
• 6: DJ Turner II
• 5.5: Erick All
• 4: Cade McNamara, Luke Schoonmaker
• 3.5: Ryan Hayes
• 3: Ronnie Bell, Daxton Hill
• 2.5: Andrel Anthony, David Ojabo
• 2: Mike Sainristil, Junior Colson, Josh Ross, Andrew Stueber
• 1.5: Mazi Smith
• 1: Nikhai Hill-Green, Cade Kolesar, Cade McNamara, Julius Welschof, Chris Hinton
• 0.5: Blake Corum, Joel Honigford, Chuck Filiaga, Donovan Jeter, Trevor Keegan

Heroes?

Hassan Haskins, Andrew Stueber.

Maybe not so heroic?

Ryan Hayes.

What does it mean for Maryland and The Game?

McNamara all the way. His mediocre grade comes with the most caveats because Penn State was a new level of pressure and he survived it in terrible weather. I’m still down for a package for McCarthy because it’s clear now who the guy is. It’s also clear who McNamara is: a pre-snap reader with good accuracy and not enough height who’s going to protect you from sacks and turnovers as well as anybody but not a run threat.

Hassan Haskins forever. Hate not having Corum but we do have a dude and you can tie your fandom to him if you need to.

Erick All is important. Even with a few targeting issues at the end of outside runs, he’s a difference-maker even when used sparingly. Getting him healthy to The Game is paramount.

Andrey Anthony be comin’ IMO. Was a good blocker in this game, made a crucial play. Stardom is going to come.

Ryan Hayes is not a 1st round left tackle right now. At least that means we get him back.

Your Moment of Zen: