Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Georgia
WHERE	4-M Stadium Miami, FL
WHEN	7:40 Eastern Friday, 12/31/21
THE LINE	UGA –7.5
TELEVISION	ESPN (Fowler/Herbstreit)
TICKETS	good luck part two
WEATHER	clear, mid-70s minimal chance of rain minimal wind

Overview

Well, it's a CFP semifinal game against Georgia, the team that's #1 in all advanced metrics this year and was undefeated until they ran up against the Alabama buzzsaw in the SEC championship game. Not a great draw, Bob.

Except… that Alabama buzzsaw has a loss against 8-4 Texas A&M and played one-possession games against 6-7 Florida, 8-4 Arkansas, 6-6 LSU, and 6-7 Auburn. The SEC is currently Not Good in bowl games with only one game against a P5 school and the second-best team in Georgia's division is… Kentucky? Appears to be Kentucky. Meanwhile a 10-3 Georgia win over Clemson in the opener lost a lot of its shine when the Clemson offense turned out to be unfathomably bad relative to the recruiting rankings of everyone on it. You can credibly level accusations of Ain't Played Nobody against this team.

On the other hand, metrics are metrics and are fairly predictive and both they and Las Vegas have Michigan a (slightly) more than one-score underdog. Generally, doing the things Georgia has done even to mediocre SEC teams indicates you are very excellent at the football. Also OSU was exactly a 7.5 point favorite.

[Hit THE JUMP for words]

Run Offense vs Georgia

can Michigan get anything explosive [Barron]

This is going to be a bear of a defense to go up against. Georgia has crushed all comers:

The Bulldogs possess one of the most dominant defensive fronts against the run that PFF College has ever seen. They rank in the top three in the Power Five this season in team run-defense grade and successful run rate allowed. The most yards a single running back has put up against Georgia in one outing is 69 (Dameon Pierce, Florida), and the most an entire running back room has recorded this year outside of garbage time was 110 (Georgia Tech across 25 attempts). Just once have Michigan’s running backs failed to collectively combine for 100 yards in a game this year (at Wisconsin in Week 5).

Wisconsin is a similarly elite rush defense and Michigan running backs scuffled to 93 yards on 34 carries, with a long of just eight. You could squint and say that those results without a single 10+ yard run is relatively encouraging, especially since Michigan has been extremely explosive on the ground this year. But preventing explosives is a skill and Georgia is even better at that than Wisconsin is. Wisconsin 20+-yard runs allowed: 5. Georgia: 3. Even mighty Alabama took one look at this front seven and noped out, rushing Brian Robinson Jr just 15 times to 44 Bryce Young passing attempts.

Michigan probably cannot maintain reasonable levels of offensive efficiency while passing 75% of the time. That's not their DNA. So they either win by burying Stetson Bennett in defensive ends or finding ways to cobble out enough efficiency here to make play action reasonably effective. Ways they get there include running back overperformance, JJ McCarthy evening up numbers, Michigan's OL being on another level from previous Georgia opponents, and wacky stuff. All of these are at least plausible; none seem particularly likely.

Michigan's best bet might be to identify rules the Georgia defense generally operates by and coming out with a first half game plan that rips off some chunks in the same manner Mark Dantonio July drives used to do against Michigan. Those kind of advantages tend to die early, but with a month to prepare you could see a game plan that anticipates some counter-punches and is able to keep it up. This is a way to get chunks here and there, though.

The ability to get reasonable gains on a down to down basis and put Michigan in positions they can succeed on third down is going to be equally important. And things might be… pretty okay here? Georgia's defense does not feature blitzball linebackers and their underlying DL stats paint a picture. Georgia's 42nd in line yards, 44th in power success rate, and 39th in stuff rate. They're just okay at preventing the first couple yards. They are *extremely* good at preventing everything but those first couple yards since they're 10th in opportunity rate and—as mentioned above—have given up just three chunk runs this year.

It's not too hard to envision Hassan Haskins getting those first two to three yards and then Haskinsing himself another couple, and that adds up tremendously over the course of a game. I'm saying there's a chance here as long as Michigan is able to craft some explosives.

KEY MATCHUP: JIM HARBAUGH vs CAVEMAN FOOTBALL TRICKS. No disrespect to new Broyles winner Josh Gattis but it seems like Michigan's best bet here is installing some packages reminiscent of early Harbaugh where the intricacies of what Michigan's doing puts guys in the wrong gap. Maybe. Easier said than done, but probably easier than simply out-executing this front seven.

Pass Offense vs Georgia

shots shots shots shots [Barron]

Also a potential source of explosives. Georgia's most recent game saw them replace their slot corner/safety/whatever, with disastrous results:

Latavious Brini, who manned the position for the entirety of the 2021 season, did not play in the SEC Championship game for unknown reasons and was reportedly healthy. Instead, Georgia trotted out William Poole, and it went badly.

Between him and a few bad reps from others, Georgia’s defenders covering the slot allowed a season-high 168 yards across 10 catches, one of which was a score. The group combined for a 43.1 slot coverage grade.

Bryce Young nuked the Georgia secondary for 9.6 YPA and 421 yards, largely because Jameson Williams drilled various Georgia secondary members into the turf.

Michigan's guys aren't quite Jameson Williams but Michigan's passing game has quietly put together an excellent back half of the season. Over the last six games, Michigan has 13 touchdowns against 4 (non-Hail Mary) INTs and has cracked 8 YPA in all but one game, that a 7.5 YPA performance against a Penn State defense that entered that game with one of the best passing defenses in the country.

That Alabama game was an anomaly, however:

NO FLY ZONES ❌ pic.twitter.com/PIOmVmGD4b

— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) December 29, 2021

Although don't tell Kirby Smart that:

“When we go talk to NFL scouts they laugh at PFF, or whatever the source may be. … A lot of times, PFF is a guy that works at another job during the day and that’s just his secondary job to chart whether or not D.K. or Nakobe Dean or Travon Walker or Warren McClendon or Jamaree Salyer did their job. Their evaluation is probably not as important as ours.”

Well… yeah, obviously an outside observer is always going to be handicapped when it comes to figuring out what was actually supposed to happen when things go wrong, but no need to be a jerk about it.

Anyway. Georgia's pass defense has crushed most opposition. Alabama is an obvious exception, and so is Tennessee, which put up a credible 6.9 YPA. That might be a slightly ominous number, though, since Tennessee's passing offense took off after they benched Joe Milton for Hendon Hooker; Hooker put up 9.8 YPA, 26 TDs, and 3 INTs this season that includes a 10 YPA performance against Alabama. (One wonders who Milton will start over briefly at his next generation: Robot Tom Brady?) Michigan is not on the level of these passing offenses.

There is a spot they do have an advantage over teams who have passed successfully on Georgia. Michigan's OL will get challenged by Georgia, which is 25th in sack rate, but Michigan is second nationally in sack rate allowed despite having a much more downfield-oriented passing offense than  most. One worry is Georgia looking at some of the late check pressures Iowa was able to unleash in the Big Ten championship game. Iowa was able to check quickly after Michigan set their protection, and upgrading Iowa linebacker athleticism to Georgia linebacker athleticism could create panic situations for McNamara.

I will put out an optimistic prediction: if the rush doesn't pay off Michigan should move the ball here, and I don't think McNamara will be under siege. Michigan's wide receivers are underrated because of Michigan's run focus and have come up with big plays time and again. And any defense suffers if they can't get to the passer.

KEY MATCHUP: MCNAMARA vs SHOTS. Michigan needs explosives against a defense like this. McNamara and McCarthy have been B+ collectively at hitting downfield opportunities, with a midseason wobble the main thing separarating them from a collective A. The route to a Michigan win almost necessarily has a chunk touchdown.

Run Defense vs Georgia

mirror images [Fuller]

This is the less intimidating half of the Bulldogs but uh also this unit is 3rd in SP+ and hasn't really delivered any clunkers this year save the opener against Clemson, which saw UGA gain just 256 yards of offense. The ground game is especially prolific, averaging 5.3 YPC and putting up six yards a carry (or close enough) in five of their last seven games.

However, the Ain't Played Nobody is strong here. Aside from Clemson and Alabama the best defenses Georgia faced, per SP+, rank in the mid-30s. Georgia got behind big against Alabama and had to abandon the run; they averaged just 3.6 YPC in that game. That was the best mark any team had put up against Alabama except for one extremely anomalous game against Florida earlier in the year, though, and Michigan should expect that this will be a stiff challenge.

It's one Michigan suddenly seems up for after an acid test against Ohio State. OSU got a couple of chunks off tempo and otherwise struggled to do much of anything on the ground. Georgia is not a high-tempo team, though they may have added some in during bowl prep. They are also not much of a read option team—another thing Michigan has had issues against—but despite the fact Stetson Bennett is a walk-on named "Stetson Bennett" he is a guy who will keep a few times a game to good effect.

Those two things will be occasional sideshows. The main event is going to be some mano-a-mano manball stuff between the Georgia OL, the Michigan DL, and the Georgia running backs. Those backs are all top-50 types, with Zamir White and James Cook the main two guys. The thunder/lightning split here is much softer than it is in Michigan's backfield but White is more to the power side of the equation and Cook—Dalvin Cook's brother—more to the speed side. Here's White:

And here's Cook:

You'll note some catches out of the backfield from Cook, who has 21 on the season and is thus essentially a fourth WR given how little Georgia throws to their outside guys.

I'm going to assume that the much more limited DT rotation is going to persist and that Michigan is going to deploy Michael Barrett as a viper-type-player when Georgia goes to 2TE, which they do on about half their snaps. The former was a key component of the OSU performance.

KEY MATCHUP: DAVID OJABO vs A TEST. Georgia's likely to avoid running at Hutchinson and instead try to wear down Michigan's other first-round DE. Ojabo has not been bad against the run this year, per se. He's more in the vein where he keeps contain and does his job, unlike Hutchinson wrecking everything. That might not be good enough against this ground attack.

Pass Defense vs Georgia

hunting [Bryan Fuller]

First up: Dax Hill is expected to play.

This will seem familiar to Michigan fans because the approach here is to run the ball a ton and then toss in some obliterating play action. Michigan, once battling service academies to reach the bottom of passes attempted, actually has nine more attempts on the season than Georgia does. The ideal UGA game features 20-30 passes that collectively go for 9-10 YPA. The only deviations from that formula that were more than slight came against Alabama (when UGA was trying to catch up), Charleston Southern(?), and South Carolina.

So UGA is going to run the ball, trust its defense, and try not to get Hutchinson'd. Aidan Hutchinson just ran over various Ohio State offensive linemen en route to being a Heisman finalist; Georgia is not going to do better in one-on-one situations. OSU's OL was reputed to be first round talent and got thoroughly owned. Georgia is going to suffer the same fate if they take the same approach.

They will endeavor to avoid that. As detailed, Georgia has been extremely run heavy this season. This means a ton of their dropbacks are play action, or in non-obvious passing downs. Opportunities to tee off have been rare. PFF:

Offensive coordinator Todd Monken is trotting out heavy personnel (11 personnel usage; 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on 59% of early downs this season compared to 46% in 2020, and he's using play action on 48% of such downs compared to 33% last year.  And when the Bulldogs use standard 11 personnel, there is a run-pass option (RPO) — which is an extension of the run game when the quarterback pulls — attached over one-third of the time.

With those tweaks, Georgia has seen its early-down passing efficiency — better known as expected points added (EPA) per pass — go from a flat zero in 2020 to +0.36 in 2021. The latter mark is the highest in the Power Five.

The formula is to avoid straight dropbacks when possible and to lean on the run game threat to keep it from landing on Bennett's shoulders too heavily. If you can disrupt the formula you can get some nonlinear improvements. As Alex noted in FFFF, this could be a key weakness obscured by Georgia's defense and running game overpowering opponents:

Watching Anderson against Georgia made me believe this is a matchup that Hutchinson can win:

QB Stetson Bennett was clearly rattled in the second half of this game as he found himself in an unfamiliar situation and began to lose faith in his protection.

He combatted that largely by zeroing in on his #1 receiver. Further evidence that Kirby Smart would fit into the Big Ten pretty well: Georgia's top receiving threat by a huge margin is a true freshman tight end. Brock Bowers has almost 800 yards this year and gives off major Jake Butt vibes:

I mean if you're going to put it there to that guy it's time to tip the hat and move on.

The Georgia WRs are talented, per the recruiting sites, but are rarely targeted. The top three guys are all averaging a couple catches per game; freshman Adonai Mitchell is your 6'4" leaping Nico Collins type; the other two are 6'0" all-arounders. There is not a slot bug who can go nuts on screens and such; the threat there is more likely to be a slot fade, especially since Bowers lines up there with some frequency.

It should be noted that George Pickens, a guy who was likely headed for the first round of the draft, tore his ACL in spring but got some time in Georgia's last two games. If he's healthy that's a gamechanger for the UGA receiving corps.

Outcomes here are going to be heavily dependent on context. If it's second and three heavy play action will be a problem for Michigan. If it's third and eight and you're dropping back, well, the man comes around.

KEY MATCHUP: AIDAN HUTCHINSON vs NDAMUKONG SUH. Best way for Michigan to win is the way they won against OSU, except with fewer absurd circus catches from the opposition.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Georgia is solid but unremarkable in this department. Kicker Jack Podlesny is 18/22 but has barely attempted any long ones and is just 62nd once FEI takes that distance into account. Kickoffs are touchbacks about 65% of the time and Georgia hasn't given up a meaningful return all year. Punter Jake Camarda is averaging a healthy 47 yards per punt and has only had 10 of his 40 returned, but there may be an opportunity there since the long punts have given opponent returners some runway; they're averaging 11 yards when they do get are return in.

Georgia hasn't done a ton returning punts—pretty much all their damage came against UAB and Charleston Southern—but did block one for a touchdown against Arkansas.

Michigan is #1 by a million miles in special teams FEI after showing Iowa quien es mas punto and likely has to make hay here to win.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING WELL

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• The ground game can't do reasonably well down-to-down.
• Dax Hill is not available. (He is expected to be available.) Or he's not 100%.
• George Pickens is.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Michigan loads up on wacky stuff like flea-flickers and goofy screens and ancient weird run game wrinkles.
• Georgia's getting stuck in passing downs.
• Michigan gets a key special teams W.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 8 (Baseline: 5; +1 Uhh Best Team In Country According To Metrics, +1 for They S'posed To Be SEC, +1 for General Bowl Game Malaise, +1 for Dax Hill Questionable Availability, –1 for Aidan Smash, –1 for OH JA BO, +1 for Their Run Defense Might Be That Good, –1 for We Have The Explosives, +1 for Yeah Metrics And Vegas Are Pretty All Right At Painting These Pictures)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for I Mean It's A Playoff Game)

Loss will cause me to… be entirely okay with things as long as it's not 38-0 or somesuch other embarrassment.

Win will cause me to… float back to Indianapolis?

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Feels like a game where Michigan needs to jump out to a first half lead. We've had a fair number of games like this in the recent past where Michigan comes in as an underdog, puts up an out-of-nowhere first half performance based on new packages and trickery-type things that keep a bear of a defense from locking in. Then the magic runs out and reality re-asserts itself.

This Michigan team could avoid reality reasserting itself since a team that is down against Michigan is in trouble, but that presumes that Michigan is shutting down a Georgia run game that has been extremely hard to stop this year. After OSU I think that's possible. Maybe not probable.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• It's a slugfest where neither team cracks 4 YPC and there are many attempts to run nonetheless.
• JJ McCarthy does something to crack the Georgia defense, and also does something very very bad.
• Georgia, 22-19.