Michigan Museday: Playing Devin's Advocate
"There are three stages in an actor's career: Who is John Amos? Get me John Amos. Get me a young John Amos." –John Amos | Photo: John T. Greilick, Detroit News
He's listed at 6'4" and 205 lbs. In his career so far – about 50 snaps – he's thrown 24 passes and completed 14 (58.3%) for 186 yards and 1 TD. He's also rushed for 56 yards (96 forward, 40 backwards) and 2 scores. He kinda looks like a young version of that guy who played Admiral Fitzwallace on the West Wing.*
For the last three games Hoke has been working Devin Gardner into the offense more often, either with the "Fritz" formation, the Denard Jet, or in some practiced Gardner-specific packages. How much of a 'rotation' this is can be overstated. Before Marcus Rush's flagrant roughing the passer knocked out Denard on Michigan's last drive I counted 67 snaps, of which 5 were Gardner's alone, 6 used both QBs, and 56 were just Denard. That's about a 90-10 split.
This is an attempt to discuss some prevailing theories as to why Devin is taking away a tenth of snaps from a Davey O'Brien award semifinalist.
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* DYK: John Amos played ball for Colorado State back in the day.
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THEORY 1: RUNNING QUARTERBACKS ARE FOR SOCIALISTS
The inevitable result of Denard's 2011 regression has been leagues of old blues who see Devin Gardner's hype and strapping physique and decide that anyone who looks more like a Scot Loeffler acolyte must be able to complete more than 30 percent of his passes in a trash tornado. They would be correct on the last bit; 3 for 7 is 43 percent. He also had a play so freshman-y against MSU it got through the entire first stanza of Yakety Sax:
The old men say things like "he's a better fit for Borges' offense," because the columnists they read break down all offenses into Manballicans and Spreadocrats, Borges being of the former (never mind that he's run a different offense at every stop). Their ranks are swelled by the same "Put in Henson" effect that has made 2nd string QBs and goalies so beloved wherever starters are struggling.
But there is evidence that Gardner is a more accurate passer than Robinson, not from the games but because his coaches say that. Hoke at the post-MSU presser:
Can you talk about philosophy of alternating Devin and Denard? “Yeah, we thought we may do some of that, and part of what pushed it over a little more was that it was a windy day, and I think Devin at times can throw the ball a little more accurately.”
So if we take the politics out and pare this theory down to "Gardner is more accurate," that accounts for two plays last week. One was when Denard overthrew Hemingway down the sideline in the 2nd quarter and was yanked for Gardner. Gardner immediately missed a wide open Hopkins for a 50-yard score. Later on they brought in Devin for an important 3rd and 11 early in the 4th quarter; Gardner fumbled the snap.
THEORY 2: THE MOST TALENTED GUYS ON THE FIELD
By recruiting metrics, Gardner is the most talented offensive player on Michigan's team. He was the No. 1 ranked dual-threat QB in 2010 to everybody but ESPN (Bolden), a 5-star to Scout, and the 5th ranked QB to pretty much everyone. Everyone who has a believable opinion about scouting says Devin has every type of it. 
After a year and change in the program, is there any way we can get some of that it on the field without giving up the rainbows and love and liquid happy of Denards?
Borges after debuting the Fritz:
We talked about it a little bit and after spring football it became apparent Devin was a skilled kid, we just tried to figure out a way we could use him. It’s hard, without literally giving quarterbacks series, and I know they did that here in the past, I’m just not a fan of breaking the starting quarterback’s rhythm by taking him out for another guy.
Game theorists and bloggers love this explanation. Technically they're replacing a receiver so the talent tradeoff is Roundtree for Devin. But if you're already overreacting to Denard and then you have to deal with Devin's legs on the other side, and Devin's arm, and oh yeah there's a running back who can go up the middle or option or (Gotchya!) pass it, you can see how opposing DC's can end up with disorders.
Last week this was very effective. The Denard Jet play netted two first downs that were both a shoestring tackle away from breaking big, and two well-defended fake jets that Gardner dumped off for 4 yards on 1st down, and a ran for 3 yards that should have been 8 if Devin hadn't missed his hole.
THEORY 3: THE LAW OF DIMINISHING DENARDS
Molk(+.5) and Schofield block down, Robinson(+1) finds a small hole and squirts into the secondary for 7 yards, where two linebackers and a safety converge. Denard gets up holding his hand.
The thinking goes, the more you play Denard, the more banged up he gets and thus the worse his performance. Talk during the offseason was all about limiting Robinson's carries. One way to reduce wear is to have him pass more, but his passing this year—scheme is part of it, inaccuracy is most of it—makes that untenable as his 2009-y performance against MSU shows:
This is rushing and passing together, with baby seals and EMUs excised. I was looking for some evidence that Denard's effectiveness goes down the deeper into a year you get but it doesn't show that. What it does show is Denard is less effective against better defenses (duh moment) and that he was very much Freshman Denard against MSU. It was also his passing-iest game yet.
Another way to keep miles off the Robinsonmobile is to drive the Gardner more. The tradeoff is that the best part of this offense is Denard's legs and that defenses have to overreact to that whenever Denard's legs are in the game.
Thus the Fritz and Denard Jet packages, which so far have gotten Denard hit about a third of the time but have Denard's legs as a threat 100% of the time.
THEORY 4: THE TATE FORCIER EFFECT
Ariel Bond|Daily / Lon Horwedel|AnnArbor.com
One of the reasons advanced stats loved Michigan's offense last year is we put up way above average yards against Illinois and Iowa, two statistically good defenses. Those also happen to be Tate Forcier's two extended appearances not in garbage time.
Tate had 597 yards on 84 passing attempts last year, all but 13 of those passes against real Big Ten defenses when filling in for a dinged Denard. With him gone and most of the Big Ten season ahead, this job falls to Devin Gardner. It might be a good idea to come up with a few plays he can do well and get those snaps logged. We've got that. In the Monday presser Hoke elaborated a little bit on the 
just-Devin package:
When you put Devin in the game, is there a purpose to that? “There’s three plays that we like Devin to run. One was the touchdown that he had against Northwestern -- that boot. And there’s another boot in there that we really wanted him to be a part of besides the combination of them both in there.”
More of this after NW from Borges:
Does it help to have Devin play a couple snaps when Denard was out from a coaching standpoint and from his standpoint? “Oh yeah, absolutely. Because Devin’s a highly skilled kid. He is. When he can go in the game and score a touchdown, really not make any tactical or technical errors, he gains confidence, and we gain confidence in his ability to do it.
Experience is needed. We had a preview of Devin in relief at the end of the MSU game and Gardner twice tried to throw the ball past the L.O.S. (the one above and the TD pass called back). That is an experience problem, and highlights the main reason, in my opinion, for getting Devin snaps: having a backup ready if/when Denard gets his dings. The experience thing is a double edged sword since it seems Robinson needs the experience snaps in this offense just as much as his backup.
In a perfect world Michigan would have an extra 15 snaps per game per quarterback we can throw away to learning. As it is that opportunity has come once this year, against Minnesota. The rest of the way, I figure the coaches will be looking for opportunities to give Devin a few more looks here and there. If he's replacing Denard more than 1 play in 10, it's because the dings have already come.
October 25th, 2011 at 3:28 PM ^
John Amos was in one of the best movies of all time...
October 25th, 2011 at 7:44 PM ^
Nevermind Marc Singers ally Seth from Beastmaster. Ignore the treacherous Major Grant in die Hard 2. Shun the noble patriotism of Admiral Percy Fitzwallace in the award winning West Wing. Forget his best known role as father James Evans on TV's Good Times or even depicting Kunta Kinte in the groundbreaking miniseries Roots.
I always prefer to picture John Amos as Cleo McDowell with a burger to his ear.
October 25th, 2011 at 3:29 PM ^
I don't disagree that Devin should see snaps (and I agree that he needs more than a spot down here and there; let him be the main QB for a series if needed). But at the same time, the notion of replacing Denard with Devin just seems foolish to me; we saw this the past couple of years with Threet->Tate->Denard. First-year signal callers are, by nature, inexperienced and prone to brain farts like running past the LOS and throwing the ball, or locking onto a receiver and getting it picked off. This year, let the reigning B1G offensive POY play, get better, and hope he stays healthy next year for senior-level Denarding. Bring in Devin as well, but groom him to replace Denard, not sub for him now and again (outside of the correctly-noted times when Denard is unable to play).
The argument I read the most is that "Denard is going to be gone in 2 years, and Devin is the future of the offense, so why not let him play now?" While it has merit at first glance, it drives me crazy because, at best, you have a starter for 4 years before he is forcibly removed from the lineup. This isn't the NFL where Peyton Manning plays for a decade; Devin has (maybe) 3 years left at UM, then he has to leave. And in two years, Shane Morris shows up on campus and he is an even BETTER fit for the offense Borges likes to run. At that point, does the team bench Devin and bring in Shane so that he gets his reps, because he is now the future? That seems patently crazy to me, but then again we've seen it with Denard
I get that Devin is a great talent and unfortunately he plays the same position as the team's best player (Denard), but thems the breaks. Unless Denard absolutely falls apart the next couple of weeks (and while he struggled throwing the ball against MSU, it's not like Cousins was accurate in that trash tornado), I want him to remain the primary QB with Devin getting some spot-drives when a change-up is in order.
October 25th, 2011 at 5:52 PM ^
for the benching of Denard.
October 25th, 2011 at 3:31 PM ^
mmm, starting the column with a little eye candy for the ladies
THANK YOU SIR
Signed, your female readership.
October 25th, 2011 at 3:34 PM ^
A young John Amos is eye candy for ALL readership.
October 25th, 2011 at 3:42 PM ^
"So if we take the politics out and pare this theory down to "Gardner is more accurate," that accounts for two plays last week. One was when Denard overthrew Hemingway down the sideline in the 2nd quarter and was yanked for Gardner. Gardner immediately missed a wide open Hopkins for a 50-yard score."
Gardner missing Hopkins wasn't an accuracy issue. It was a decision making issue. He may have thrown to the wrong receiver (the one who was covered) but it was still a well thrown ball.
I don't think there's any question Devin's a more accurate passer and has the better arm. His probelms are all related to decision making (which is understandable IMO).
October 26th, 2011 at 10:22 AM ^
Not throwing to Hopkins was a decision making issue but that was still a mistake. But the throw to Hemingway was not well thrown. Hemingway had a step and Devin missed him.
October 26th, 2011 at 1:24 PM ^
Obviously it was still a mistake. One that Denard's made several times this year as well though.
... And I completely disagree.
It looked to me like Hemingway tried to make a move to lose the coverage (didn't look like part of the route as it was a split second pause/stutter type thing) and it caused him to be a half-second late. The throw was pretty, deep, and Hemingway still got hands on it and could have (though not necessarily "should have") pulled it in.
October 26th, 2011 at 2:22 PM ^
I guess its possible Hemingway turned the wrong way. I guess we can't know for sure unless someone knew what the route was supposed to be. My guess is the 5th year senior starter knew more than the true sophomore 2nd stringer.
October 25th, 2011 at 3:55 PM ^
An enjoyable read.
I don't know who is more accurate, but I think seeing Devin for the occassional series makes sense. [As long as Denard isn't just sitting on the sideline the whole time. The Jet package or even using Denard as conventional WR or RB (primarily as a decoy) could keep defenses busy thinking about our most dangerous offensive threat.]
The Forcier's really do have some poor transfer timing eh? Jason was a decent runner and probably would have started in '08. Tate was accurate and could have thrived with some packages in a Borges offense.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:02 PM ^
Looks the part when he's in the Winged Helmet, but we need to see more of what made him a "5-star" type recruit. Part of that is obviously the magic of Denard, but if he were really ready for primetime he'd be getting more than 10% of the snaps. Let's give the kid some time. My personal opinion is that his ceiling is higher than Denards in this offense.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:06 PM ^
October 25th, 2011 at 4:12 PM ^
Don't you want the backup to have some meaningful reps so when/if Denard gets hurt he is seasoned? I think this is more the case than anything. You don't want Devin being called upon against Neb having never taken some snaps. You'd have that whole deer in the headlights thing going on. The coaches are just building him up just in case the worst case happens.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:28 PM ^
Why didn't DG see significant second half playing time against EMU? Up by 4 TD's (~28-0 or 28-3), there was very little reason to keep Denard in...while giving Gardner the opportunity to have to run several series in succession (against the little guys EMU claimed were D-Linemen /s).
My point being, that was the ideal game for him to have to run a series, come to the sideline, get on the headset, and get back out on the field 4 opponent plays later. Then, against Minnesota, they could have worked him in a bit more during the first half, for more realistic interaction with the game.
My $0.02 anyway...
October 25th, 2011 at 4:40 PM ^
My guess is that they thought Denard needed as much time as possible to work on his own issues.
October 25th, 2011 at 5:05 PM ^
Yes, and as we all know, they were way too correct in that analysis [that DRob needed as many reps as possible].
October 25th, 2011 at 5:16 PM ^
I'm not going to look up what kinds of plays Denard was running at the end of the EMU game, but it's highly unlikely he was working on any sort of passing/fundamental/development/strategerizing/schematic advantaging...but, as I recall, the coachspeak after the game intimated such.
Howeva! Gardner looked like he could have really used some experience in just trying to make some progressions/reads, do some of the things that "slow the game down" for him, in an earlier game, as opposed to a stanza + of Yakety Sax against MSU. When you have your second stringers in a game that's pretty much in hand, you don't have to apologize for having your guy passing on 1st and 2nd down late in the 3rd or in the 4th quarter. If your starters are still in there and you're doing that stuff, someone will be crying at a press conference...
October 25th, 2011 at 5:25 PM ^
I agree... Aside from the "yakety sax" characterization that keeps getting thrown around. I just can't come up with any other reasonable answer for the question.
October 25th, 2011 at 6:00 PM ^
How much I-formation were they running against EMU? It was game 3 for Borges trying to install a new offense. And in reality they only played 3 quarters against WMU. They had only run 89 offensive plays in the ND and WMU games combined.
October 25th, 2011 at 6:13 PM ^
UM really only had 3 possessions in the second half. 2 in the 3rd quarter which were both TD's. Got the ball back with 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Ran 12 plays - 8 rushes and 4 passes and then kicked a FG. Then got the ball back with 1:26 left in the game.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:55 PM ^
Its not Denard's arm or even accuracy that limit his NFL potential at QB. The primary tools an NFL QB must have are all located between the ears and I'm sorry to say that Denard has the mind of a running back and not a QB, at least not in the traditional sense(reading D, recognizing holes in coverage, following progressions, audibleing out of trouble). Devin is an unknown in this respect which is all the more reason to get him as much time as possible where feasible without costing victories. Side note, Denard has some HUGE hands and grips the ball like its a nerf, I think he could be hella dangerous in the slot or coming out of the backfield to catch passes and could be as good a reciever as he wants to be, even to the level of NFL caliber, certianly his YAC would likely lead the league.
October 25th, 2011 at 5:03 PM ^
October 25th, 2011 at 5:18 PM ^
I love the Fritz package. I just think that Borges needs to do more with it (and perhaps he will against OSU). I, for one, would like to see the following from the Fritz:
1. Denard passing downfield, given that the entire D assumes that Denard will be involved.
2. Devin passing to Denard
3. Devin hands off to Denard who pops up for a short pass to V. Smith or one of the other RBs.
4. Devin hands off to Denard, who pitches back to Devin when the defense converges, and Devin hits a receiver downfield.
5. Devin hands off to Denard, who pitches back to Devin, who rolls out and hands off to V. Smith who is cutting the other way. V. Smith pitches back to Denard who . . . takes it to the house.
Ok, so 5 may be a bi of a stretch, but the other 4 are all possibilities with this great formation.
A question: if you guys were Borges, and were going to try these things (1 through 4, not 5), would you (a) break it out against Purdue for practice, or (2) save it for OSU and blow Fickell's mind.
I like (b), but I am a gambler by nature.
October 25th, 2011 at 10:02 PM ^
Thank you for pointing out that Devin looks a ton like a younger Jon Amos....a fact that Ive pointed out for years since I first saw a photo of Devin. The resemblance is remarkable.
I first saw Jon Amos in Vanishing Point, years ago... that movie came out before my time, but its the earliest Jon Amos Ive ever seen ...pre Good Times.
Anyway..that said... Devin Gardner is an athletic freek with tons of tools...
But... IMO Russell Bellomy will ultimately beat him out as QB at Michigan, IF they give him a chance to do so.
Bellomy is just as mobile, has similar size and arm...and is WAY more accurate with the football...he is also an athletic freek...as you can see from these vids:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B35nuygQKvY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyC_0FOzdaU&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4om8v56FCw&feature=related
Bellomy was a steal as a recruit, ...played Texas 5A ball, and it was mystifying how he did not have more offers.....
Russell is the type of QB that you'd typically seeing pop up at Texas Tech or Missouri etc and putting up HUGE numbers due to his athleticism and accuracy. Im hoping that Coach Hoke and company give him a chance to compete with Devin.
October 25th, 2011 at 10:43 PM ^
I see Denard as a mix of Devin Hester and Chris Johnson in the NFL. Denard is small and would take a beating running between the tackles. (Frankly, I just don't want to see that kid hurt ever) If he has the hands, He could definitely be a receiver or returner. He was recruited to be a DB by a lot of programs, so maybe his future lies as a CB or a safety with added weight.
It's just a tough situation. Don't want to see anyone leave or unhappy...sigh..
October 26th, 2011 at 12:42 AM ^
October 26th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^
October 26th, 2011 at 10:44 AM ^
I remember reading that while he was camping before his senior year he would spend some time working at receiver and was consistently outperforming almost every other receiver.
October 26th, 2011 at 5:45 AM ^
Well, at least it was obvious to me that Denard was special from the beginning, but not as a QB. He just happens to be so special, that he deserves to be the starting QB and get all the development attention he can by the coaches. They (the coaches) are in a tough spot. Devin Gardner needs more work.
It is unfortunate that we can't run the majority of our offense with both DR and DG in.
October 26th, 2011 at 7:18 AM ^
He does look like the dad from "Coming to America"
October 26th, 2011 at 9:18 AM ^
I still think that if we are going to use Devin at QB, why don't we throw a pass or two to Denard. He could beat any corner out there with flat out speed, and his hands can't be that bad. Also, throw to Devin. This offense could be like the mad magicians, but even more dangerous, I can see so many crazy things we can do on top of what we have shown already out of the Fritz package.
Hopefully after the bye week, we see a more accurate Denard, and he takes that next step. I can't rule Denard as a QB at the next level, because the NFL has some bad QB's playing, I mean, come on, Curtis Painter is an NFL starter.
October 26th, 2011 at 10:31 AM ^
against OSU. We tried it two years ago against OSU but Tate couldn't get the ball to Denard even though he beat his man on a fly route. Devin will get it there this year. We are saving shit for OSU because Hoke knows its the most important game on the schedule.
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