MGoPodcast 14.5: Joel Klatt Already Said This But Comment Count

BlueBarron October 3rd, 2022 at 7:00 AM

1 hour and 55 minutes

The Sponsors

Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.

Our associate sponsors are: Peak Wealth Management, HomeSure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, Human Element, The Phil Klein Insurance Group, Venue by 4M where we recorded this, TicketIQ! and The Nose Bleeds, which is the Sklars Bros’ reboot of Cheap Seats on UFC Fight Pass.

1. Offense vs Iowa

starts at 1:00

An Iowa game but not one of those Iowa games. Better performance on offense than the score indicated. JJ only took one shot downfield and missed it by only by about a yard. Felt like Michigan could just get six yards in the A-gap any time they wanted – Iowa's tackles are a bit light. Blake Corum spent the offseason lifting buses. There are like 12 minutes before they actually start talking about the quarterback play! Soft underneath passes are how you approach this Iowa defense if you can run the ball. Zero interceptions against a defense that intercepts the ball a LOT. JJ has been coached to not get hit but has a lot of opportunities to get extra yardage upfield if he just goes for it. Is the goal still “just get the quarterback to week 12”? Donovan Edwards has now scored a rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown, and passing touchdown against Iowa (editor’s pop quiz: who was the last Michigan player to do this against a single team? Hint: it was in one game, not two). If teams are going to keep putting their defensive backs in the parking lot then Luke Schoonmaker is going to keep being the #1 target. Receivers are still fast. Other teams are afraid of them so they don’t get as many targets.

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

2. Defense vs Iowa

starts at 35:50

Normally when you only give up 14 points to a real football team you feel pretty good. Here we feel… fine? A little concerning that the things Iowa got weren’t sporadic. Michigan’s defensive tackles are really good but not world eaters. Need more linebacker support but there’s still no news on Nikhai-Hill Green. Defensive line was up and down. There was pressure but Iowa didn’t let themselves get consumed by it until the desperation drive. Okie sacks Petras with a guy between him and Petras. When Upshaw is on the field it is only for one reason. Seth ALMOST patted his head and rubbed his belly in the Very Visual Podcast. Okie is developing nicely, what were all these other teams doing with him? He’s flashing and tracking to exceed expectations. What Iowa’s offense did in the first four games was unsustainably bad, this was probably them reverting to the mean.

3. Hot Takes, Special Teams, and Game Theory

starts at 59:50

Takes hotter than Iowa fans thinking about Brian Ferentz as the head coach of Iowa football (too hot?). Iowa punted a lot, Iowa fans cheered. Michigan’s special teams didn’t really have an eventful day, especially against Iowa. You want to fire Brian Ferentz?? Yeah well watch this FAKE KNEEL! Maybe Michigan going into a shell had something to do with the backwards pass fumble? Clipping penalty was a bad call. Hold on Benny was the right call.

4. Around the Big Ten With Jamie Mac

starts at 1:22:23

Wisconsin rushes for two yards... Against ILLINOIS. This was recorded before the Paul Chryst news. Wisconsin tends to hire from within the program but Lance Leipold (Kansas head coach) has Wisconsin ties. Minnesota was looking great this season but then got outplayed by Purdue. There is currently a six-way tie for first place in the Big Ten West, who possibly wins this divsion? Everyone has a fatal flaw. It might come down to Minnesota and Illinois (what a time to be alive). Maryland dominates Michigan State more than the score suggests. Michigan State looks bad BUT we all know what their Super Bowl is this year. They did have another goal line stand. They might not make a bowl. Are we getting to "Sean Clifford Falls Apart" season? Penn State Northwestern was ugly - it was a rain game, though. After five weeks we still don't know a lot about Penn State. Nineteen punts in Indiana Nebraska! Nebraska gets their first win over an FBS opponent in ten tries. CJ Stroud looked mortal against Rutgers. Teams are 1-8 after playing Nebraska - the Infection Theory of playing Nebraska (how do you tell if Indiana is negatively effected by playing Nebraska?). 

MUSIC:

  • Too Close for Comfort Theme Song
  • "Frankenstein"--Babytron
  • "Weird Goodbyes"-- The National featuring Bon Iver
  • “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:

"It's like they're space aliens and they came down and they saw a car and they're like "oh, this is what the humans use to heat their streets in the morning."

Comments

King Tot

October 3rd, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^

There is some recent success at places like Nebraska and Wisconsin but are there institutional reasons why Lance Leipold would look to leave what he is building thus far in Kansas for rebuilding in the B1G? 

ehatch

October 3rd, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^

I haven't listened to the podcast yet (stupid meetings all morning). MSU dearly misses Slade and Henderson. I'm sure they'll be back for the Michigan game, so they won't be the same team we've seen the past 3 weeks, as enjoyable as that's been. 

MGoBlue96

October 3rd, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^

They still will have the same core problems, terrible cbs and a poor oline that can't run block. Full strength or not the only way MSU has to a shot to win is if UM isn't aggressive enough in their offensive gameplan. They already threw for 400 last year and Thorne was very poor on the other side. I can't see Thorne having a very good game for MSU with less help from his running game this year.

A State Fan

October 3rd, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^

yeah - basically this. I think their injuries this year have been underrated, but the core problems from the team are two of the (in season at least) healthier position groups.

----------------

How upset should I be at the performances, when:
Our top 4 DTs have missed games or left one of the Minny/Maryland games to not return.

2 of our top 3 DEs are in walking boots.

One of, if not our best LB was lost for the season 1st half of week 1.

Our best defensive back has been out since the first half of week 1.

Our explosive offense was predicated on Jayden Reed being good, but he's had foot, back, ankle injuries all fall and missed the Washington game.

---------------

In hindsight - not having 5 healthy OL in the spring to even run 1s vs 1s was a pretty big red flag we ignored.

MMBbones

October 3rd, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^

Only because it's a Michigan thing:

It's called "regressing to the mean," not "reverting to the mean." The "regression effect" was popularized by a UM professor whose name now escapes me. I had his stats class but with a TA, not the man himself.

Maybe he learned it elsewhere and was the first to make it a big thing??? Anyway...

MMBbones

October 5th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^

Yes! Rothman!

And thank you for the clarification below on "reverting to the mean," with which I was unfamiliar. I apologize for being excessively pedantic.

I still prefer "regressing to the mean" since it has more of a Michigan flavor, but that's just me getting old, I suppose...

AlbanyBlue

October 3rd, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^

There's pretty much the confirmation that JJ running is going to be in the safest way possible -- getting out of bounds instead of cutting up the middle, etc. A good point though, is that bringing it out against MSU might get JJ injured on a dirty play anyway -- since MSU tried to do that against Taulia apparently. 

So we might only see JJ's wheels against PSU and OSU. 

AlbanyBlue

October 3rd, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^

Yup, but I only hate it because it limits the potential of what could be the best M offense in a long, long time. Last year showed us we can win this way, and it REALLY seems we're going to try to do it again, albeit with a better QB. 

But damn -- this offense could be so much FUN and explosive and glorious, but how can we be mad about winning??? Can't do it. This is what even the best M offenses have been as long as I've been a fan -- lean on the run game, safe passing especially to the TEs, and then break the glass and pass deep to the WRs once in while or if M has to catch up in the second half.

As I said in one of the threads, what gives me hope are the things like the pass to Andrel Anthony -- yes we have a QB that can make NFL throws -- and then running the RPO (to Bell) so damn well. So the stuff is in the rotation and the coaches are willing to use it -- sometimes. Against PSU and OSU, I think JJ is going to have to be JJ for us to succeed.

MGoBlue96

October 3rd, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^

Yeah agreed, JJ needs to be unleashed in a couple of games in order to win them all including his legs, but just in the instance of MSU I don't think his legs are a needed part of the equation given their horrid pass defense. I would expect once Cade is healthy you will see the coaches be willing to be more liberal with the use of JJ's legs at that point as well.

MGoBlue96

October 3rd, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^

Something I haven't seen mentioned is that Mcgregor didn't seem to get any snaps. Was he injured or something? Seems odd  considering he and Okie have been probably been the best pass rushers at that spot and he has been decent in run defense to boot.

King Tot

October 3rd, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^

  • Jaylen Harrell — 39
  • Mike Morris — 33
  • Eyabi Okie — 26
  • Taylor Upshaw — 18
  • Braiden McGregor — 10
  • Derrick Moore — 5

These are the snap counts for EDGE shaped guys against Iowa according to MLive. Maybe he tweaked something and they didn't want to risk it? I thought he looked bad against Maryland but UFR disagreed and I trust that over my own eyes. Time will tell.

MGoBlue96

October 3rd, 2022 at 2:10 PM ^

I mean he got 10(didn't think he got any live) but honestly I really have no idea why Upshaw is getting more at this point. McGregor came into the game with the highest pressure rate among the guys at the spot opposite of Morris I believe and the UFR's have said his run defense has kind of been surprisingly okay as well. Weight wise he is actually bigger than Upshaw too so it's not even like Upshaw gives you extra beef upfront. The guys who have flashed the ability to actually win a one on one pash rush really should be taking almost all the snaps with Harrell at that spot IMO.

dragonchild

October 3rd, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^

Okie's sleeve-sack reminded me of a Michigan sack a long time ago that I don't remember the details anymore, but I vividly remember the "hit" itself.  It looked like a clean, if pushed, pocket.  QB's still standing tall.  Then a massive paw appears out of nowhere, reaches for the QB, grabs a handful of jersey, and BAM!  QB's thrown to the ground.  Instantly (unlike Okie's sack).  The guy never got anywhere nearly off his block, just unbelievable reach and strength.

VAWolverine

October 3rd, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^

Rob Houghtlin ran through my mind during the second half of Saturday’s game. He was Iowa’s kicker on October 19, 1985 when #1 Iowa player #2 Michigan at Kinnick Stadium. The evening before my first anniversary. 

Houghtlin kicked four field goals to give Iowa 12 to Michigan’s 10. The last FG occurred as the clock in the 4th quarter went to all zeros. On my wedding day 364 days earlier, Chuck Long picked apart an injury depleted Michigan squad 26-0.

Whenever shit happens during a Michigan football game, I think about Rob Houghtlin. Tom Klaban can resurface in my memory as well. 

WayOfTheRoad

October 4th, 2022 at 4:24 PM ^

I'm glad you're openly talking about how weird and unreliable PFF is. I'd just stop referring to it if I were you as their wild variation in evaluation has been obvious for years. The last evaluation I want to hear or read is from PFF. 

I think they're just a much, much smaller organization than they want to let out and most of their work is made of dudes skimming games. Just rough views, look for major plays, see who is at fault and pick a "rating". Their OL ratings most show this to be the case, IMO.

ShadowStorm33

October 5th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^

Yeah. I certainly don't hate PFF or anything, but I have a hard time seeing how they can be doing anything other than just skimming stats. Like they'll put out graphics of "highest rated X..." with ratings of guys from random teams on them (i.e. not just top teams); they can't have the manpower to be giving actual attention to 100+ teams (they do NFL as well I think) each week. Hell, I'd imagine that UFR takes at least a full day for each side of the ball...

2manylincs

October 4th, 2022 at 9:02 PM ^

A few thoughts.

Can you get Klatt on the podcast? I'm sure that it would be fun and he has to live in Ann Arbor at this point. 

Does MSU have the same stink that Nebraska does at this point? Maryland may be one to bet against this weekend if you are so inclined..