MGoPodcast 10.26: Tales from the Vomitorium
1 hour and 13 minutes
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1. Michigan's Pod
(starts at 0:58)
The "last two seed" means Michigan doesn't have to play Duke. Montana is without their two bigs from last year. Good at preventing assists on made baskets—we think that means they force you into a lot of iso ball. Nevada was good but played nobody. Seth shares what vomitorium means (got it from the great youtubist CGP Grey). But Nevada's best player, Jordan Caroline, has an Achilles flare, and they just lost to San Diego State without him. Clear preference is Florida.
2. The Rest of Michigan's Region
(starts at 22:41)
How good is Gonzaga? We like that Syracuse is the and Florida State are with them because those two are talent-independent hoodoos. All Syracuse does is have Tyus Battle drive in the lane. Texas Tech is the three seed, and the other great defense. Who grad transfers from St. John's? Highly dependent on a Culver, a high-assist/usage guy Matthews will be checking. They're not a switching defense. They give up a lot of threes but we're guessing those are 24-foot step-backs. How do you shoot 211 threes at 26%? Marquette has Marcus Howard (36% usage!) who's just a jack-it-up shooter. FSU is a forest of arms.
3. MSU III
(starts at 45:44)
When Michigan faces a switching defense they just freeze and take bad shots because their answers don't work: X isn't a stepback shooter, they don't have any Iso guys, Matthews is not a good offensive player, and they can't feed the post. Izzo admits he "couldn't play Ward" but also auto-benched Tillman and Michigan immediately swung out to a double-digit lead. Hat tip to Cassius Winston. Grumbling about the slow development of Poole, and Michigan wings being so slow to recover to McQuaid. A 20-percent win percentage flip on a blown call at the end is especially galling because it will never change. Just once it would be nice to play a rival without the rival getting an assist from the officiating.
3. Iowa/Minnesota
(starts at 1:06:03)
Rote blowouts and flexing. Michigan fixed the Iowa problem as soon as they stopped putting Iggy on Garza and Teske on Cook—Cook is the Big Ten's biggest foul magnet, Iggy can't guard Garza. As soon as they stopped doing that it was over. Minnesota was just dog tired.
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MUSIC
- Space Cowboy"—Jonzun Crew
- "Anthems for a Seventeen-Year-Old Girl"—Broken Social Scene
- "Can't Get There from Here"—REM
- “Across 110th Street”
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The people are what spews forth from the vomitoria, not the contents of the people
Michigan (likely) has a terrific "ISO" guy...we don't really know-they never use him that way...you spell his name P-O-O-L-E. His critics are couch-potatoes who don't know what it takes to play this game. Otherwise, all these (continuing) accusations of "hero-ball" are mindless partisan rants-take it up with the coaches!!!
The whole "MSU III" section is just plain silly. Pains me to say so but Michigan's biggest problem against MSU was coaching.
This team could still win it all-or Montana could knock them out.
Iggy is their best 1:1 player, but he doesn't have great change of direction so teams can corral him. Matthews has a decent mid range game but he can run himself out of good shots and has TO issues as well. Poole doesn't have a great handle/doesn't take great care of the ball (14.4 TO rate), so asking him to go against s guy heads up isn't a given. And since he's sort of a black hole when it comes to assists, you can't necessarily ask him to carry the offense.
This team doesn't have a MAAR or Walton who can get his shot late, and it hurts.
Also, you might want to go back to the drawing board if you are going to chastise people for being couch potatoes and your big revelation is Michigan could either win it all or lose to someone.
Good analysis. My question is, if we don't have a great ISO guy, why don't we just run our regular offense?
Also, knowing in advance that our opponent is going to switch on defense, and knowing in advance the strengthsand weaknesses of our players on offense, what are some other strategies that would work?
March 18th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
I think they try to but, of course, the defense tries to stop them. And honestly, Michigan's offense does lack as dynamic inside-out game as they used to have; Teske is great but Moe was a different animal offensively and (along with MAAR) that dynamic is missing in this offense.
ISO ball works in spurts, especially as a change-of-pace. But it doesn't really work (IMO) unless you either have an elite finisher OR a friendly whistle. Michigan really doesn't have that now, and only infrequently did so in the past (Burke, Stauskas, late Walton).
March 18th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
Beilein's x and o's have taken a steep nosedive this year. They run absolutely no off ball action on offense which is mind boggling considering they have a PG who can't shoot and capable wings. They are exclusively a PnR team and that leads to heroball when teams switch everything on them for which they still have no answer for. They kept hard hedging the pick and roll with Tillman on the floor and got eaten up for 3rd straight time. Beilein made two big recruiting mistakes with Davis and Brooks so this team has no bench. I'm sorry but watching Izzo spank him this year was disheartening considering what everyone on this board was saying about him last year.
Unless Beilein starts running more off ball action on O, which has vanished from the offense for some reason the last few years, they have a ceiling on how far they can go.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
My guess is the off-ball action has diminished somewhat because there isn't as much scoring on the wings as they've had in the past. It's not that they don't have some shooters but they are (somewhat) unevenly distributed. UM's best offenses featured a good-shooting PG and/or a big man who can shoot from outside. They don't really have that, and so teams can cheat back from Simpson and cut off a lot of those passing lanes that cuts can exploit.
Davis and Brooks have underwhelmed, though Brooks you can at least play. He's not going to help you a ton, but he's around a replacement-level PG. Davis you really can't leave out there.
I don't think Beilein has "forgotten" how to coach the offense; I think he's got a more limited set of players than in years past and he's done a pretty good job rolling out a top-20 offense with it. It will probably limit their ability to make a deep run, but it's also a bit of hyperbole to act like they have fallen off the map offensively.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
I agree that Iggy is probably their best 1:1 player right now but Michigan has three players - Iggy, Matthews and Poole - who can get their shot late. For some reason, the offense doesn't seem to focus on getting one of these 3 decent looks late in the shot clock. As for Poole, you (and others) are wrong. He does have an above average turnover rate but he's not the worst on the team in this regard. His turnover rate is tied for second (behind Simpson and tied with Matthews). He's not a black hole. He averages 2.2 assists per game (3 per game in the BTT), only behind Simpson on the roster. His assist to turnover rate (1.375) is only second to Simpson among starters. He's still a good 3 point shooter at over 37% for the year (despite having to heave hail mary shots late when the offense fails) and the second leading scorer behind Brazdeikis. He's their best free throw shooter.
And the prior poster is right to chastise people here who only harshly criticize players like Poole and the team in general without recognizing the positives. It's ridiculous.
Per KenPom, Poole's TO rate is worse than the other starters save Simpson, and in Simpson's case I get that because he's assisting on so many plays. Poole having a usage rate of around 21% and only getting about 2 assists a game is not great; you can debate "black hole" if you want, but for a guy who should be driving and has a legit outside shot he doesn't really get the ball to other players on the team. I'd say Matthews and Iggy are also black holes, but we knew that. Also, his "3 assists per game in the BTT" comes from the fact he had 7 against Minny. He had 3 against everyone else. That's why people don't like averages.
Also, the idea he's "heaving hail marys" to save the offense is ignoring the fact he isn't doing much else the other 20-ish seconds the team is trying to run their offense. This isn't a knock against Poole, but his game is still immature and he's prone to launching ill-advised shots because he feels like he either has to or is getting a bit trigger-happy. It's telling his best game overall in the tourney was against Minny where he picked his spots and found open guys.
I think Poole is a good player, but pointing out how he's struggled recently and hasn't taken a huge leap isn't hating on him or being ridiculous.
Sounds like you're saying two different things here: 1) that three guys can get their own shots late and 2) Michigan should focus on getting one of those three decent looks.
In suggesting 1) you're implying they can get decent looks on their own. And Michigan is allowing them to do that. They just aren't actually good at getting decent looks on their own.
Matthews can get that 10-15 foot fadewaway at will but it's not a good shot. It's a two pointer that he makes about 35% of the time. That's a horrible, horrible shot.
Iggy definitely better and at least attempts to draw fouls (successfully sometimes). The problem is that he doesn't pass so defense collapse on him and refs swallow their whistles late in games so he doesn't get calls he was getting earlier in games. So he's just an ok late clock option.
Poole is just a very bad decision maker in iso late clock situations. He should drive more but he loves that pull-up/step back and it's not efficient.
So the best late clock option remains Zavier Simpson. He is still the best guy to ask to make a play for himself or others.
Everyone that knows basketball knows Beilein is a phenomenal coach. He said it best, MSU is just a really bad matchup for Michigan. I don't think we need any more evidence to prove that. Last year, Michigan was a bad matchup for MSU. Roles were reversed this year. That's just how it goes sometimes.
Poole gets a significant number of ISOs and he is not good with them. The numbers say what the eyes can easily see.
He could probably be a lot better if he drove more often (which is something he is good at so he should do more of) instead of jacking up so many contested threes (which he is not good at). He does not exhibit good shot selection and that's why his ISOs are inefficient.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:30 AM ^
This is a pretty good draw. Gonzaga is typically a tournament fold but has been really good the last few years. Texas Tech and Nevada are also pretty tough. Even Buffalo could make a run. But, generally it's not as scary as the Kentucky-NC bracket (which also has Kansas and Houston as well). Kentucky and UNC have been flamethrowers the last few weeks. I'm not as scared of Duke as everyone else is - they're actually not as good as they should be but they still have a lot of talent which makes them dangerous. But, still they're far from unbeatable. That UVA-Tennessee bracket isn't particularly daunting either, if Michigan landed there as a 2 or 3 that would've been favorable as well.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
Haven't coached a god damn close out all year apparently because Poole and Iggy both came out of their shoes on McQuaid and gave him FTs and side step open 3s (his only move). It happened in the first game with Livers and Poole flying by him/Tillman multiple times, along with another foul. Run at him with a hand up and keep your feet.
And when the 1 guy on their team that's hitting his 3s is sitting in the corner, the idea of continued help defense off of that 1 guy makes absolutely zero sense. Make Winston take contested layups with Matthews or dump it down on a switch to Tillman. There is no reason to leave McQuaid wide open on the wing/corner 5 times when he's hot. They're lucky he didn't hit another 2 or 3 open ones. Moreover, when the hard hedge is getting picked apart, what's plan B? It's like the OSU football game. When single high man coverage isn't working, plan B was single high man coverage with a little more blitzing.
Offensively, the days of set pieces have gone away (pretty much everywhere). The back cuts that got Poole those late FTs are few and far in between. I hate Izzo, but he ran WInston and McQuaid off of screens and curls multiple times when the offense bogged down/became inefficient to get some open shots. Zack Novak running off of screens and curling/flaring for open 3s isn't happening right now and the offense is basically screen, rescreen, rescreen, fuck it do something.
Simpson can't shoot so the P&R is basically a 3 legged horse with no plan B. He broke Winston down a couple of times that a PG like Burke or Walton would pull up and have a decent shot.
Poole gave up an open 3 to try and pump fake the defender who closed out properly so Poole had no other option. He also throws up too many overhand floaters that get thrown out of the gym. He's good for far too many defensive lapses/bad decisions and had another one late when Michigan could have pushed it to a 6 or 7 point lead and instead turned it over and gave MSU a fast break.
They finally learned how to dump it down to Teske and those possessions were quality so hopefully that continues.
The team is good because of Teske, Matthews, and Simpson's defense (and Livers' flexibility) mixed with Iggy's guts (too much sometimes). But that is the extent to which they can go. The coaching and strategy this year has been subpar compared to year's past (JB has set the bar very high). Leaving an A+ 7'1" guy to defend other team's bigs isn't mind blowing or genius. Finding a way to run an offense with a PG who can't shoot would be impressive, but that hasn't been shown consistently the last 2 months of the season.
If they run into Texas Tech, first team to 50 wins.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
All of this is spot on. All of it.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
When Michigan faces a switching defense they just freeze and take bad shots because their answers don't work: X isn't a stepback shooter, they don't have any Iso guys, Matthews is not a good offensive player, and they can't feed the post. Izzo admits he "couldn't play Ward" but also auto-benched Tillman and Michigan immediately swung out to a double-digit lead.
How about Beilein for once in his god damn life run some off the ball action on offense instead of relying exclusively on pick and roll. This is the main reason ISO ball happens late in the shot clock when teams switch 1-5 on us. Iggy and Poole take some really dumb shots sometimes. The lack of a bench is on Beilein as well. Livers needs to be way more aggressive taking 3's. And there is no excuse for not putting Matthews on McQuaid all game but instead they put him on Henry? LOL. Here's an idea, stop helping off the guy who's lighting you up for 27 fucking points John. Stop hard hedging every single ball screen. Switch on MSU like they do to us. Izzo pulled Beilein's pants down and spanked him. Three times. Just sad.
March 18th, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
How about Beilein for once in his god damn life run some off the ball action on offense instead of relying exclusively on pick and roll.
He used to. The offense still has a lot of off-ball screens and movement when it's working, but far too often guys stand around on the wing and Tesk/Simpson play a 2 man game that can be slowed down because there's only 3 options and 1 or 2 can be eliminated pretty easily (comparatively). That's the way basketball has been trending. Offense is more iso and P&R heavy now instead of set plays and off the ball movement.
He has recruited well (though a major force are still freshmen), but he painted himself into a corner by running an offense through Simpson when Simpson can't shoot. He's great on defense and as a distributor, but he should not be an integral part of the offense if he's being forced out of the lane. Darius Morris couldn't shoot worth a lick either, but he was bigger and could finish over a guy like Winston and others (instead of Winston stuffing Simpson yesterday). Couple that with Novak, Douglass, and Hardaway and you had guy who could suck in defenders and then kick to 3 point shooters. Plus, Douglas and Novak were ran off of screens to get looks that guys of their athletic ability couldn't have gotten on their own.
Iggy and Poole take some really dumb shots sometimes.
Agreed, though I'd take Iggy's bad shot over Poole's any day because he at least diversifies his approach. Jab step 3, a drive to the basket, multiple ways to finish. Poole is basically a step back 3 or block party.
Here's an idea, stop helping off the guy who's lighting you up for 27 fucking points John. Stop hard hedging every single ball screen.
Here's my thing that I said in my comment: What is plan B? Michigan is very, very good at what they do defensively. But when they run into a team that can beat that first attack, where is the change up? Michigan plays OSU 10 times last year in football and OSU puts up over 40 probably 8 times because they can beat what Michigan does best and there's no plan B. Same thing with basketball. When MSU started to get going, Michigan just buried their nose in the ground and kept doing the same thing over and over again.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
Pretty emphatic cut to the feed at 1:01:03 after Brian says "fucking it up".
Took me a second to realize that it was just a happy coincidence of a random streaming error instead of the podcast ending right there.
For the love of fuck stop saying that Poole was shooting. He wasn't. It makes you look dumb.
He was absolutely fouled, and it was a shit call, but that was on the floor.
You're making us look like a football school when you say this crap
I don't want Poole with the ball in crunch time because he's more focused on trying to draw some shooting foul from 40 feet than getting a good shot up.
I'm just pissed because we could have gotten a play for Livers or Iggy to tie it up, who I'd much rather have shooting it
But Poole was not shooting when he was fouled!
This is not a shooting foul. We get the ball back and give the ball to a more reliable dude from 3
A millisecond later, Poole is launching a 3. It's much much much more of a shooting foul then when Poole fouled McQuaid standing behind the three point line shortly before this - and they awarded McQuaid 3 free throws.
Yet they didn't even call a foul.
A millisecond later, Poole is launching a 3. It's much much much more of a shooting foul then when Poole fouled McQuaid standing behind the three point line shortly before this - and they awarded McQuaid 3 free throws. If the refs are even somewhat consistently calling the game, that IS a shooting foul and that's why other posters are saying it's a shooting foul.
Yet they didn't even call a foul.
Poole made the right decision by throwing up the shot - he was obviously fouled and tried to make it a 3 point play but the refs swallowed their whistles shortly after screwing him on a previous foul.
Blame the refs not Poole. If they call both plays correctly, it's a tie game or Michigan wins by one.
That's not a shooting foul though. If you are fouled and you're not in an upward shooting motion, it's not a shooting foul.
And yeah, I'll blame Poole. I'm just tired of how much benefit of the doubt he gets when he's our 6th best player. If he doesn't try to chuck up a random shot from 40 feet after a no-call on the floor, he has a wide fucking open 3 from 20 feet. He did this against MSU at home too where he launched himself into Tillman who was just standing there.
What McQuaid does is bs gamesmanship, but it is within the rules of the game. Just like Zavier faking a timeout to get an open 3 is bs gamesmanship, but it's within the rules. But both of these plays are high IQ plays because they are high IQ guys. What Poole does is almost always low IQ.
And I love Poole still. But in that spot, I want a play to be drawn up for Livers or Iggy. Poole will deliberately take a worse shot with the hope of drawing a shooting foul, but he's not smart enough to know what is an actual shooting foul in those situations.
Get it to a guy who will just shoot a normal high percentage shot without focusing on drawing a foul. Youre not getting a shooting foul from 40 feet out. You just arent
Concluding that Poole will "deliberately take a worse shot with the hope of drawing a shooting foul" based on a couple examples is total BS. The vast majority of the time he takes the shot and doesn't try to draw the foul. In this case, shooting was the smart thing to do when he was obviously fouled. And he had every reason to believe it would be called a shooting foul when just before that, he was called for a shooting foul on McQuaid who was literally just standing there and then flipped the ball up in the air a second after he was fouled. And yes, that was called "a shooting foul from 40 feet out." Based on how the game was being called, that was not only a foul but a shooting foul. So no, he IS smart enough. The refs apparently aren't smart enough to call the game consistently - that is not Poole's fault.
And he is as good a 3 point shooter as anybody else on the team even if his current percentages are a little lower - ever since he lit it up early in the season from 3, he's been drawing a LOT of attention and rarely gets the open look others do.
Look, I'm upset they lost. But I don't get the "blame Poole" BS. He makes some great plays and some mistakes, takes good shots and bad shots - just like everybody on the team. Just because he misses a shot, doesn't mean its a bad shot. The numbers support my argument.
The loss doesn't fall on Poole. I just want the ball in somebody else's hands.
Also, those few examples are the last 3 times we've actually been down in the final minute in a close game. Wisconsin was a pretty close game and Livers hit a clutch normal 3 when we were down 6. But Poole always deliberately goes out of his way to draw contact on a 3, and it never is called a foul (because they aren't shooting fouls).
Maybe DeJulius can be our iso guy when he develops.
Meta question: I'm no MGoLawyer, but I'm looking to start an unrelated podcast. Everything I read online says that I can't use any copyrighted music, even for 10-15 seconds, without rights clearance. How do you guys get around that?
March 20th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
There's a giant difference between what is legally protected by fair use, and what rights holders try to monetize. Since we're using the songs editorially (they are making a statement about the segment we just did) and not using entire works, we're more than covered under Fair Use, and any rights holder attempting to pursue legal damages would lose a lot of money while making themselves unpopular over an action that benefited them (we're essentially giving them free promotion).
Most online content however has to get hosted by a large company, and those companies kow-tow to Sony and Clear Channel because it's in their interests to ally with rights collectives over content producers. This is why we have to use different music when we broadcast to YouTube. Legally there's no contest, but what's legal matters way less today than whether you are within the grasp of a mega-company's unethical revenue streams.
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