Resources: My charting, PSU game notes, PSU roster, CFBstats, Last Year

Welcome to Weak-vs-Weak Week, as two units that lost some stars but were expected to be much better than dismal will battle to see whether it's worse to have two injured All-Americans and lots of 4-star freshmen, or two injured All-Americans and lots of walk-on adults.

Like Michigan's defense, PSU's offense wasn't atrocious at first. The Indiana game was Chaos, and they had two redzone chances to make up the fumble-TD they gave up to Nebraska. However they're going into this game without an All-American tight end candidate, and no idea who's playing quarterback. Also their last victory over a Power 5 team was Rutgers on November 30, 2019. If they lose in Ann Arbor, it'll be a year.

The film: After determining Iowa is far too competent to stand in for Michigan, I went with the team that's starting a McCaffrey this year. In fairness, Nebraska's defense is more of a mess than ours. My charting shorthand when an opponent blows something so bad it wouldn't be applicable to Michigan, is to put the opponent's name in parentheses, e.g. (NEB). My parenthetical bar is so low this year that I only had three (RU)s last week. I had six (NEB)s this week, accounting for about a quarter of the 500 yards PSU put up in this game. Adjust however you like.

Personnel:

We all suck. Dax lost his star, Green (for his run D) and Ross cyan'd. Hawkins and McGrone expected to play but day to day.
PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image).

[After THE JUMP: Us in a mirror]

Penn State would trade our quarterback controversy for theirs in a heartbeat. Returning starter #14 Sean Clifford was pulled in this game for RS soph #7 Will Levis, who in turn was benched for Clifford last week against Iowa. They have Levis listed atop the depth chart for now. Both will probably play, and both will miss dangerous downfield target Pat Freiermuth. Replacement #86 Brenton Strange (+6/-1) wasn't targeted for a pass but he is an able run blocker. I expect more passy backup #82 Zack Kuntz (+1/-0) and touted true freshman #84 Theo Johnson to get some work.

They'd also ask for a running back or two in the deal. Leading rusher Journey Brown was on a 1st round track before he discovered a medical condition that forced him to retire from football. Fellow star Noah Cain was already out with a leg injury, and fellow 5-star Ricky Slade transferred (to Old Dominion) to get out from under them. That all left a somewhat experienced sophomore, #24 Devyn Ford (+5/-6, –4 pass pro) and a pair of freshmen, #26 Caziah Holmes (+1/-0.5) and #24 Keyvone Lee (+4/-0). Ford was #79 overall in 2019 and the other two were #188 and #281, so they all have talent. What they don't have is any interest in blocking, particularly Ford, who in his defense did get run through by a cornerback the one time he even bothered. Lee wasn't tried but he's a pile-mover with the body for it.

The one receiver-receiver they have is #5 Jahan Dotson (+4/-2), a fast bugger doing his best impersonation of KJ "Speedy Eaglet" Hamler; stapling Daxton Hill to Dotson all game is the move. Two true freshmen get most of the snaps outside. #3 Parker Washington (+8/-11) attempts to block but probably shouldn't; he had some freshman moments but creates separation and came down with a pair of lobs late to save a crucial (ultimately unsuccessful) drive. He was also 0/5 on complaints to the refs about phantom pass interference calls, who in turn were 0/3 on his most obvious OPIs. #13 KeAndre Lambert-Smith (+4/-3) is taller and has some speed, but like Washington desires a lot of coaching, plus a year or two with the weights. They'll rotate him evenly with starter-in-name-only #11 Daniel George (+0/-2), who was never open that I saw (and this was a game with the good director so I saw most).

The line remains a mess, though they fixed the most glaring issues from last year by moving forever-starter/turnstile RG #71 Will Fries (+7/-3, –3 pass pro) inside. RS freshman RT #79 Caedan Wallace (+4/-1.5, –2 prot)'s future might also be on the interior; like Fries he's a big pile mover, though this one was the #81 recruit in 2019. There are three more top-100 guys who play. The big one is LT #53 Rasheed Walker (+14.5/-7.5, –4 prot), an athletic donkey-hater. Like Fries, C #62 Michal Menet (+5/-5, –4), the #28 overall player in the 2016 class, has been starting so long that Joe Moorhead one designed a screen-a-thon offense to save Trace McSorley from him. LG #73 Michael Miranda (+10/-7, –7.5) is a year younger but remains a staple of their Dead Quarterbacks highlight reel. They can and do run block well—those cyans are for protection, on which PSU was 52/79 (66%) against a Nebraska defense that hasn't gotten to the quarterback much all year. Former top-100 recruit #69 CJ Thorpe (+1/-4.5) and squat #70 Juice Scruggs (+5/-2) got some play for Wallace and Miranda, respectively, with Fries moving to tackle in those instances. Thorpe's a Panasiuk-level angel who drew one PF for three really bad after-the-whistle attempts to injure guys.

Full Chart:

BACKS
#	Pos	Name	+	-	PR	T	NOTE
7	QB	Will Levis	12.5	4		+8.5	As runner. Includes 5/8 on reads
14	QB	Sean Clifford	4	5		-1	3/5 on reads. Fumble-3.
28	RB	Devyn Ford	5	6	4	-5	Pass pro lacking, athleticism in spades
26	RB	Caziah Holmes	1	0.5		0.5	A guy
24	RB	Keyvone Lee	4	0		+4	A big guy
RECEIVERS
#	Pos	Name	+	-	PR	T	NOTE
5	SL	Jahan Dotson	4	2		+2	Fast, willing not able blocker
3	WR	Parker Washington	8	11		-3	Comeback artist, lots of mistake, awful blocker
13	WR	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	4	3		+1	Check back next year
86	TE	Brenton Strange	6	1		+5	Mean run blocker
11	WR	Daniel George	0	2		-2	Meh
82	TE	Zack Kuntz	1	0		+1	Flex type
85	SL	Isaac Lutz	-	-			Gritstein with bespoke routes
	TE	Theo Johnson	-	-			DNP
LINE
#	Pos	Name	+	-	PR	T	NOTE
53	LT	Rasheed Walker	14.5	7.5	4	+3	Donkeys. Two big pressure whiffs.
73	LG	Michael Miranda	10	7	7.5	-4.5	Please go see the quarterback.
62	C	Michal Menet	5	5	4	-4	Fall down. Team-5
71	RG/RT	Will Fries	7	3	3	+1	Moves people at guard, should stay there.
79	RT	Caedan Wallace	4	1.5	2	+0.5	Flashes, but a year away
70	LG	Juice Scruggs	5	2	0	+3	One monster block
69	RG	CJ Thorpe	1	4.5	0	-3.5	Dirty player
METRICS
		Name	+	-	PR	T	NOTE
		Protection	52	27		66%	TEAM-5. RBs don't block.
		Rock/Paper/Scissors	12	31		-19	Tried to scheme around OL

-----------------------------

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Very much a spread. They were 100% from the gun and nearly always 11 personnel, though there was one time they had 4 receivers and a TE, and another time they went with an OL instead of a 2nd TE. Note my copy was missing a drive from the end of the 3rd Q; I found a few of those plays on highlights. This also affects the numbers above because that's four bad plays that weren't charted.

2020  RU vs Indiana						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	3-wide	4-wide	Empty	Other		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard (58)	69%	17%	7%	7%		2.91		22%	7%	23%	48%
Passing/Clock (31)	32%	58%	10%	-		3.03		81%	6%	9%	3%
Total (89)	50	28	7	4		2.95		38	6	16	29

That's a spread. The passing game seems much reduced—perhaps because of Levis—and Nebraska didn't have much trouble bottling up receivers except the one mega-bust. The RPOs were effective but there were just five downfield to eleven run-screen options. The most sustainable passing game was on quick underneath routes that the QBs were trained to throw if the cornerbacks backed up too far. Nebraska played mostly in the parking lot.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Basketball on grass. There was a lot of Belly, split zone, zone reads, inside zone with a screen option, and then this QB Pin & Pull with a bash option that I'm surprised Gattis didn't use last year.

Hurry it up or grind it out? Standard get-to-the-line-and-wait-for-instructions deal, though it's a Franklin outfit so the instructions often come in late.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Will Levis debuted as a short down runner on the drive before they pulled. Sean Clifford has always been wily in the open field. For some reason Nebraska decided lane integrity is for people who take pandemics seriously so they both got a lot of yards on scrambles. There was no reason to clip because I had this from the IU game:

They're both sevens.

Frames Janklin Factor: Is James Franklin. In this one they had called two straight redzone fades down a touchdown with 4 minutes to go. He also likes to get up and run the same play again, because nobody will ever suspect that. They were –19 on RPS. However they did make correct 4th down decisions, going for it on 4th and 1 twice, 4th and 5 on the Nebraska 32, and then twice when they had to late in the game.

Dangerman:

There may not be a better run blocker in the Big Ten right now than PSU LT Rasheed Walker. He is certainly the strongest.

Penn State is very left-handed in their run game because of it, particularly with Belly plays. The tight ends and the rotation at left guard all came out positive on the ground because they were getting half of the points from doubles with Walker. It's hard to separate those until they separate and somebody is getting ridden around the yard. Linebackers stepping up to cover inside gaps have a hell of a time getting back outside after Walker's planted the remains of a DT in their way.

I also wanted to shout out WR Jahan Dotson, who didn't feature much in this game (the only one he was held under 90 yards) but I'm sure you've seen his highlights. Ohio State struggled to keep him contained.

Like Hamler, Dotson is quick in everything he does. The vertical fear he represents creates space for him to work underneath. His hands are superb (see the one-hander at 2 minutes above) even if his game is terrestrial. When he gets the ball underneath it's often only the beginning.

Michigan has survived against other threats like this because they have Dax Hill, who lost his star because he had a bad game this week, but can earn it right back by bettering the 144 yards and 3 TDs on 10 targets that Dotson put up on OSU's Shawn Wade.

HenneChart:

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	SCORE!
Will Levis vs PSU	3	10(3)	4		2	3		2	2	7	1		59%	+35/-22=13
Clifford vs PSU'20	1	4(1)	1		1	1		-	1	1x	1		67%	+13/-6=7
Clifford vs Iowa'19	2	6(4)	2		3	2(1)		1	6x	3	2		46%	+22/-23=-1

That's another significantly positive score on top of the running one for Levis. As with a backup quarterback dearer to your heart, you could see the difference when Levis took the field. This was an RPO that Clifford turned down earlier in the game for a one-yard run into a linebacker-infested box.

Oooh, says the announcer. The receiver actually had to catch it twice because it was a little behind him—he was that open. Also that's an easy throw. But when things are coming hard and you're waiting for your skittish starter to make his next huge mistake, a solidly executed easy thing makes you want to pull out the Tom Brady edits.

The 59% downfield success rating is a bit more sober, and his 6.70 yards per charted pass play (6.79 if you remove screens) isn't going in the annals of great FFFF scores. Compared to Clifford's 3.36 YPP and devastating fumble, and the fact that both average about 5 YPA on non-scramble/non-sack runs, well, yeah. This was also an outlier for Clifford, who averaged 8 YPA against Iowa, 9.4 versus Ohio State, and 6 and 7 against Maryland and Indiana. The battle isn't over.

OVERVIEW:

I have good relations with Penn State bloggers and have historically been slower than most to rip on PSU when given the opportunity. But like many PSU partisans and many of their own players, I'm turning on James Franklin and this team. Our Michigan parochialism and the national Harbaugh obsession has put the Wolverines' dismal season to the fore, but let's not ignore the fact that their last Power 5 victory was a dismal 27-6 affair with Rutgers on November 30, 2019. If they lose this week it'll have been a year.

Coaching remains a handicap. The offensive line is stuck in a cycle of blue chips who don't work out but see the field early. Importing PJ Fleck's offensive coordinator added more RPOs but failed to fix endemic issues on the offensive line, or convince myriad top-300 skill position players to block. Talent abounds but they have also burned through so much of it that they're starting a pair of true freshman receivers. Transfers and injury have decimated, but not depleted, a once gaudy collection of blue chip running backs. The kids might be alright but they also look often like they haven't seen a football field. Here's one not knowing how to run an angle route:

You may be able to get away with a true sophomore and two true freshmen at running back on the ground, but if they can't ID a pass rushing threat and fake a mesh point at the same time you're going to see edge blitzes all day.

Here's a more typical-for-Penn State pass protection breakdown:

That turned out okay because DiCaprio Bootle busted a coverage. It has a deserved spot on Will Levis's young highlight reel. Extrapolating it to future competition however forces you to ask who's setting the protections, and why there never seems to be a back in the way when someone wants to head directly at the quarterback.

Put that atop of real issues in pass protection from the interior line…

..and you're half-way to explaining what's wrong with the Penn State offense this year. You can't scheme around guards who don't know how to prevent quick pressure up the middle, and you can't just keep cycling through quarterbacks whenever you give the latest one Hackenberg Syndrome.

If Michigan were healthy I'd predict a repeat of the Minnesota game, when they got ground down by some honestly good players that the offense leans on too much, but makes enough big plays against the weak points and both-sides the run-pass and run-screen options enough to keep the gains to a handful of cracked plays. Since this is late-term Michigan, I expect the Penn State offense to feel like they've had a sort of renaissance. The prospect of fast receivers who are limited in their route trees reminds me too much of another rival from earlier this season. But then, Penn State's crumbled some since then as well. Resistible force, meet moveable object.

Your Moment of Zen: