It's rivalry week. The biggest game you've waited all year for is finally here and it is a clash of the titans, 11-0 vs. 11-0. Michigan and Ohio State. To get things going we're starting on the offensive side of the ball, where the Buckeyes have a great unit and a number of familiar faces from last season. 

The Film: Ohio State has played a couple really good defenses this year and I wanted to focus in on the latter half of the season, which brings to mind Penn State and Iowa. Of the two, Iowa is definitely the better defense but unfortunately that game was a bit unusual, with Iowa's already-bad offense turning in an all-time horrible performance and gifting OSU exceptional field position on the majority of their drives. It is difficult to extrapolate much from a game in which the offense you're charting is starting every drive at the opponent's 25 yard line. So, I felt that Penn State was the more useful one to use, although I watched the extended highlights of the Iowa game as well as the most recent contest against Maryland and drew clips from both. In addition, I charted the Rutgers/OSU game back during Rutgers week and have some clips leftover. In other words, a lot of film went into this evaluation. 

The personnel: Click for big or here for PDF. 

The Buckeyes again sport one of the top offenses in the country, but the diagram is far less intimidating than last year's DEATH MACHINE diagram and the SP+ numbers back that up- their rating at the time of The Game last year on offense was 47.2, while this year's is 44.0. Last year they were 1st by a wide margin; this year they're fourth behind Tennessee, USC, and UCLA. 

At QB we see the return of CJ Stroud for what is all but certain to be his final home game in the scarlet and gray. Stroud has completed another very good season and is among the foremost contenders to win the Heisman Trophy in a couple weeks. He has completed 66.4% of his passes for 9.7 Y/A, 35 TD to 4 INT. When the season concludes, Stroud will most definitely enter the NFL Draft and should be picked in the top ten slots, possibly as high as 1st overall. 

The RB position is littered with question marks and injuries, as it is for Michigan. Miyan Williams has been their best back this season, a hefty bowling ball that requires several men to be brought down. The problem has been the injuries, which have limited him throughout the year. He missed the Michigan State game, returned to get 10 carries against Iowa, then got hurt again against PSU (2 carries). Williams returned the following weekend to shoulder a sizable load against Northwestern and Indiana, but then was carted off against the Hoosiers and did not suit up against Maryland. There is optimism he can go against Michigan, but we will largely be in the dark about him until there is further clarification. 

Last year's primary starter TreVeyon Henderson is back at RB, but his stock has fallen some, with injuries contributing to him losing his star. Henderson's YPC is down a full 1.5 from last season and after sustaining an injury at the end of October, has played just one of the past three games. That was last week against Maryland, where he put up a dismal first half effort on the ground (more of an impact in the receiving game) before exiting and being seen on the sideline in a walking boot. When healthy, he's a lightning fast north-south runner, but he is likely not healthy whether or not he plays in The Game. Your author is higher on Williams because of his ability to break tackles but it's reasonable to assume that, like Michigan, neither RB will be 100% even if both play. 

The injuries to both Henderson and Williams have forced Dallan Hayden into the limelight, a true freshman who was just outside the top 250 of the composite. Hayden has filled in a fair bit this year with the injuries but got his chance to shine against the Terps and took advantage of it. If Williams and Henderson cannot go, Hayden will be next man up to get a lot of the carries. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Ohio State's next receiving MUTANT]

The WR position graduated two first round picks in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, both of whom are doing awesome in the NFL, yet have found The Next One, Marvin Harrison Jr. (son of that Marvin Harrison). I was a bit tepid on Harrison entering the year and he has blown past my expectations to become the best WR in the conference (and possibly country). He is our Dangerman this week. The big question mark revolves around the health of the one returning stud from last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN was our Dangerman last year and proved why in The Game. The slippery slot has essentially been injured the whole season, tweaking his hamstring against Notre Dame in week one and then making brief returns against Toledo and Iowa before returning to the shelf. He hasn't been seen in over a month... is he going to play against Michigan? And if he is, how close to 100% will he be? That's the $64,000 question. The WRs are rounded out by a pair of young blue chippers, Tr So Emeka Egbuka and RS So Julian Fleming, both the #1 national WR recruit in their respective classes. They have both had fine seasons but are not yet at Next One status. 

Ohio State graduated highly touted TE recruit Jeremy Ruckert last season after a year in which they barely threw to him. This year they replaced him with Cade Stover, far lower rated in the 24/7 composite yet a much more notable part of the OSU passing offense. Ruckert had 13 catches all of last year, while Stover has 31. Gee Scott is the backup at TE but isn't used much, while Mitch Rossi is the FB-shaped TE who is used in the offset I and in 12 personnel running downs. 

The offensive line sees returning starters at both tackle spots, Dawand Jones at RT and Paris Johnson Jr. at LT. The latter was a guard last season and slid over to his more natural position after Nicholas Petit-Frere exited. Both are very good players and expert pass blockers deserving of the star. Johnson's pedigree as a blue chip recruit with desirable NFL measurables has landed him in the top 15 of some NFL Draft boards, thus earning the vaunted shield. Luke Wypler is the returning starter at C and has had a good season, also earning a star, while the G's are a small cut below that. Donovan Jackson and Matthew Jones are both quality players but neither are quite star-status, more oriented towards pass blocking than run blocking (a theme on this line). Jones is banged up, leaving the Maryland game with an injury and his status is unknown. It's not clear who would fill in, but tackle Josh Fryar or G Enokk Vimahi would be options. 

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Ohio State is a full NFL passing spread, as they've been for the last few seasons since Ryan Day arrived as OC under Urban Meyer in 2018. They operate primarily out of the shotgun, occasionally going under center, which is generally a run tip: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	14	6	32	88%
Under Center	7	--	--	12%

The play distribution by down and general feel of run plays vs. pass plays against PSU is how you know this is a passing spread offense: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	11	20
2nd	7	9
3rd	3	9
4th	-	1

In a total reversal from the JT Barrett-era Urban Meyer offenses, this is a passing offense to its core. They have more rushing attempts than passing attempts on the season but that is a product of score effects, a team that is beating the pulp out of its opponent most weeks. When locked in a competitive battle like the PSU game, their true colors are shown. Ohio State wants to pass its way out of trouble. 

Base set: Like last year Ohio State is playing out of 11 personnel on most downs, either with the TE flexed out to appear like 4 wide or in tighter to the offensive line. Example A: 

Example B: 

Sometimes they option the RB out wide as well to go empty in the backfield: 

12 personnel is in the arsenal, normally with Stover and Rossi as TEs, which is another run tip, as Ohio State ran the ball six of seven times they lined up with 12 personnel against PSU. Here's what it looks like: 

Going under center with an Offset I is another look they pull out: 

These are the only five looks I charted against Penn State. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Ohio State runs mostly zone concepts on the ground, with stretch still being one of their bread and butter plays, putting them in the Basketball on Grass category. They pair that with inside zone/duo, and a few other different looks, while gap only pops up here and there. I charted power a couple times and that was basically it. A Basketball on Grass team. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: On the whole the Buckeyes are a pretty typical modern team in pace of play, but they did flash tempo against Penn State a few times and it did well to keep the opposing defense off balance. It had good success against the Nittany Lions and I would expect them to pull that out of the bag against Michigan. If I were advising Jim Harbaugh, it's something that I would put in the scouting report. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): CJ Stroud is a somewhat mobile QB but I would describe him as better at evading pressure than at scrambling or being a true run threat. Last year we gave him a 5 and I stated that I expected OSU to run Stroud against Michigan more than they did against any other opponent on the schedule. That largely didn't happen, with Stroud having a scramble TD that got called back but otherwise his legs were put in the garage. We got a hint that they will be coming out this year, as OSU pulled out the arc read for Stroud against Northwestern: 

They didn't want to put it on tape before Michigan, but a dicey all-running game under horrible weather conditions forced the hand. As you can tell from that clip, Stroud is not the fastest even when he gets on his horse. When he chooses to scramble, it will be for a few yards before sliding down or going out of bounds. He does not have Justin Fields or JJ McCarthy speed in terms of his raw athleticism. But that doesn't mean Stroud can't be shifty, and his legs feature best when he needs to move in the pocket to extend plays. Bryce Young slippery, no, but still pretty good: 

I'd expect a few designed QB runs/reads and otherwise a scramble or two and the ability to evade pressure in the pocket playing a thorn in Michigan's side. Not a dangerous threat, but I'll bump him up to a 6. 

Dangerman: It's another Ohio State WR but this year it's Marvin Harrison Jr., who has ascended to superstar status. Though not as highly ranked in the recruiting rankings as his teammates Egbuka or Fleming, Harrison was still an immensely talented recruit out of HS (straddling the top 100 of the composite) and the lightbulb has gone on in a way it hasn't yet for the others. Harrison is 6'4" and does things you should not be able to do at that height. His combination of speed, leaping ability, and body control, combined with the route-running artisanship taught by Brian Hartline, has made him the B1G's best WR this season. The season stat line of 65 catches for 1,037 yards (16.0 average) with 11 TDs begins to give you an idea of how lethal Harrison has been. 

Against Penn State Harrison found himself running open down the sideline all day long: 

Not a great ball from Stroud but Harrison makes the play anyway.

If you throw Harrison a slant and he gets space, any defense is in trouble: 

Scanning across the other games I watched, I found the following clip from the Iowa game. In 4th & short situations, OSU loves to throw it and believes that Harrison will find a way to get himself open. Watch his route running ability carve up an Iowa DB: 

WR #18 to the top of the screen

Harrison's highlight reel is pornographic: 

And this next one against Indiana, I don't know man. Dude is an alien: 

Harrison has a shot to be better than any of the three OSU receiver studs from last season (top five pick in the 2024 draft?) and not much more needs to be said. [NOTICE TO ALL MAC TEAMS: if you are in need of a new head coach, please hire Brian Hartline ASAP]

HenneChart: Now we return to talking about CJ Stroud. Most readers are likely pretty familiar with Stroud by now but in case someone is reading this and wants my take for NFL Draft purposes, I will give the holistic answer. Let's start with the chart from the Penn State game: 

OSU vs. PSU	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
CJ Stroud	3	15	2		1	2		--	--	4	1		80%	7

And for reference, here's last year: 

OSU vs. PSU (2021)	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
CJ Stroud	2	17	-		1	3		--	2	7	-		68%	?

For some reason, I didn't report how many screens were thrown last year but it was definitely fewer than seven. That was a strangely high number, especially because they were largely unsuccessful. Regardless, similar performance for the most part, a bit better this year even though I'd make the case that Stroud has had a worse year in 2022 than 2021 on the whole. CJ Stroud is a very accurate QB when given time to set his feet and when kept clean in the pocket. He is dead on when he's throwing short stuff, and his deep ball is magnificent. Real arm talent and often hitting his receivers in stride. This one to Harrison was pretty: 

Here's one to Egbuka, a small window but dropped in like a dime: 

And one to Fleming in the Iowa game: 

Give CJ Stroud time and he will do that to you. But if you can get pressure, he'll start missing some of his throws. I don't want to show too many of these clips now because there is an entire section below talking about how to get pressure and how to stop the Ohio State offense, but I will say right here that it is a weakness for Stroud. He can rush and throw off his back foot and the accuracy is diminished. Stroud's play extension ability helps some but he often opts for getting the ball out quick rather than extending the play and that decision doesn't pay dividends too often. 

This is my overview on Stroud now, and we'll see the rest as we get into the pressure clips. 

 

Overview 

Much like last year, I want to first begin this section by talking about the other key players on offense individually before delving into "how do you muzzle the Ohio State offense?" discussion, so that readers are familiar with the pieces I may reference. I've already talked about Harrison, but if healthy, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is just as much of a menace. There are very few clips of him from this season due to the injury but thankfully we have plenty from last season to refresh your memory: 

One more: 

JSN's game is predicated on using his route running ability to get open and then his open-field YAC skills to become a home-run threat. He has the capacity to turn five yard stop routes into 70 yard TDs, like in the clip above. When firing on all cylinders, JSN is college football's most difficult receiver to cover or tackle in the open field, and his game over the middle out of the slot would be the near-perfect complement to the jumbo outside receiver that is Marvin Harrison Jr. Unfortunately, a fully operational Harrison and a fully operational JSN have not played a full game together once this season and JSN's status is unknown for Saturday. If JSN plays but is only 75%, he will be a useful piece for Ohio State but it won't be the same (watching his attempt to play through injury vs. Iowa made that clear). If he's 100%, the equation changes dramatically and Ohio State's passing attack will have grown several extra canine teeth. 

The reason the equation changes with a fully healthy JSN is because there is a gap between healthy JSN/Harrison and the other receivers. Julian Fleming and Emeka Egbuka are fast and bubbling with raw talent but neither guy is being pegged for the 1st round of the NFL Draft yet. They are still better than many WRs in the B1G because that's the nature of being an Ohio State Buckeye, but they are not the sort of players you have to build a game plan around. I've already shown you a few clips of Fleming/Egbuka hauling in passes from Stroud and those were the baseline Egbuka/Fleming clips, running really fast down the sideline or getting open on a slant. Not doing any gravity-defying catches or Moss-style dunks, which is, again, the difference between those two and JSN/Harrison. 

The gap in caliber in receiver is showcased by the target data for the season. PFF's numbers say that Marvin Harrison Jr. has been targeted 99 times this season, 17 more than any other OSU WR. Egbuka is next at 82, and then there's a huge drop-off down to Fleming at 39. This dynamic was on display in the Penn State game that I charted. Even PSU's NFL-ready corners had loads of trouble stopping Marvin Harrison Jr. and Stroud just kept throwing that way. The result? 10 catches on 12 targets and a 82.2 PFF receiving grade for Harrison Jr. But what about the others? Egbuka and Fleming got 8 and 3 targets, respectively, and had PFF grades under 60. One was getting open on every damn play and shredding PSU's defense... the other two were getting open occasionally but were not terribly noteworthy. All this is a long way of saying that right now Egbuka and Fleming are much closer to "just guys" than "certified Dude" status. There's a good chance at least one will ascend next season and they are both talented enough that either could go off against Michigan, but right now in the scope of the whole season, they're not there yet. 

As I mentioned in the personnel section, the TE is playing a much larger role in the receiving game than last season for Ohio State. As a matter of fact, Cade Stover is Stroud's third most-targeted option, ahead of Fleming, which feels to your author like the natural result of Fleming and Egbuka not quite being at the Olave/Wilson level yet. Stover is not the dynamic athlete of the receivers and so if more attention is being paid to the WRs and two of them aren't as consistently open as the trio were last year, that opens up some room for the TE. Stover got 6 targets against Penn State, mostly short stuff, but he did get a long catch-and-run TD that showcased embarrassing tackling from the Nittany Lions: 

You can tell in that clip that Stover is not exactly a future NFL flex TE in the making in terms of his athleticism but his reception rate (receptions divided by targets) is higher than that of any other commonly-used OSU receiver this season, signifying Stover's status as Stroud's safe checkdown option, especially in the absence of JSN. I did not come away terribly impressed with Stover's blocking abilities but as a receiver, he's fine. 

Let's move to the running backs now. Miyan Williams is my favorite of the three backs, a bruising player that reminds me a lot of Hassan Haskins from last season. Williams is a load to take down and though not as fast as some of his compatriots, is not totally lacking in speed. His ability to grind out extra yards and bully his way forward is striking in comparison to the back I will discuss next and why I became such a big fan of watching his tape. I previously charted the Rutgers/OSU game from October and that was Williams' best showing of the season, 21 carries for 189 yards and 5 TDs. Here is my favorite run of his from that game: 

Some of his runs were the result of OSU paving Rutgers into the ground, but on that carry he showcases a couple cuts and an ability to be unbothered by contact, running through a potential shoestring tackle. 

I became a huge fan of Miyan Williams after watching him take over the Notre Dame game in the fourth quarter. This next video showcases several great plays from one drive, but I want to show one run that has been stuck in my mind: 

Williams is not fun to bring down. 

The reason I've become so high on Williams is comparing him to TreVeyon Henderson, whose stock has fallen in my mind (and the minds of a few OSU bloggers I follow). Henderson is still a lightning fast rusher who can outrun just about anyone in a straight-line, but increasingly I have found myself believing that that trait it is all he offers. North-south speed is good and if given the lane, he can still rip off a big play like he in this clip I have from last year: 

But Henderson has not displayed Williams' ability to grind out extra yards after contact, or Blake Corum's ability to find the hidden yards through agility and vision. Factor in the injury, which has sapped Henderson of his greatest asset (his speed) and you're left with a back who does not threaten in the same way he once did. This culminated in the Maryland game last weekend, Henderson's return from injury after a couple weeks on the mend. His best play came on a screen pass where he was asked to make one cut and otherwise be fast: 

Otherwise, Henderson rushed for 17 yards on 11 carries before exiting with injury. Some of it was the blocking in front of him, but the gap between his YPC clip (1.7) and that of Dallan Hayden's (5.4) felt moderately telling. I could turn out to be totally wrong about this, but as of the time of this writing, it does not feel terribly likely that Henderson will be able to be a major weapon against Michigan given his performance against the Terps. 

Thankfully for the Buckeyes, Hayden's showing against Maryland was something to get excited about. Hayden rushed 27 times for 146 yards and three TDs, while also catching two passes out of the backfield. This was my favorite run of his from Saturday: 

A lot of Hayden's success was attributable to an OL that was winning consistently in the second half, but I saw enough positive traits (like those in that clip) to think he will be a very good player down the line, and at least a good one if he has to play a significant role in The Game. Hayden also rushed 19 times the previous week against Indiana and posted an identical 5.4 YPC and though those two defenses are not particularly good, you can't outright dismiss a player rushing for 5.4 YPC in conference play. Hayden is not as good as a fully healthy Miyan Williams, but he can play. 

 

How do you slow down the Ohio State offense? 

Now that I've briefed you on the weapons, let's get to the important stuff: how to take down the Buckeyes. Much like last year we're in the "you don't stop them, you contain them" category but I will say that there's much more of a pathway to containment this year than last year. Penn State, Iowa, Notre Dame, and even Maryland(!!) all showcased different ways to keep OSU's offense in the yard at different times in the year but none of them displayed the offensive success needed to actually beat the Buckeyes. Stats: 

• Notre Dame: 395 yards, 5.7 YPP 
• Iowa: 360 yards, 5.8 YPP 
• PSU: 452 yards, 7.5 YPP 
• Maryland: 401 yards, 5.5 YPP 

I personally am of the belief that if Michigan can replicate those sorts of yardage numbers, they have a very good chance to win on Saturday. What has done in so many teams against Ohio State has been short fields. You cannot give this offense free points on the other side of the ball or special teams. Notre Dame held OSU to a logically corresponding 21 points, while the other three teams gave up 54, 44, and 43 because of what happened on the other side of the ball. Summary:

• Iowa: one pick six + OSU scored 26 total points on six drives that began at the Iowa 40 or deeper (29, 27, 34, 32, 15, 40). (!)
• PSU: one pick six + two turnovers leading to short-field TDs (PSU 41 and 24 as starting field positions) 
• Maryland: one scoop n score + blocked punt leading to short-field TD (MD 14 as starting field position) + an OSU TD drive beginning at the OSU 48 

All three teams gifted Ohio State at least one defensive TD, and all gifted them at least one more TD on a drive that started inside their own 25. Eliminating those scores from the equation suddenly drops OSU's point total under 30 in both the PSU and Maryland games (a number much more in line with the yardage), while Iowa merits its own discussion. The Hawkeyes' offensive performance was magnificently atrocious, gifting the Buckeyes 26 points on drives beginning inside the 40. Three of those drives were either three-and-out or first-down-and-out, meaning that they would've been simple punts if the drives started in the Ohio State half of the field. Iowa's defensive performance was excellent against Ohio State on the whole, yet they were giving up points every possession because the field position gifted to the Buckeyes put them in such a bad starting spot. 

IF Michigan can replicate those defensive yardage performances AND not give up a defensive touchdown/force OSU to start their drives on the Buckeye side of the field, there is a pathway to holding them under 30 and being in position to win this football game. That latter part probably seems doable to the average Michigan fan because the Wolverines have the third fewest turnovers in the country (6) and one of the better punters/best special teams units in the NCAA, but how about the first part? Let's dig into that now. 

In watching these games, the first necessity to containing Ohio State's offense is stopping the running game, something PSU and Iowa both did masterfully throughout, while ND and Maryland did it early before getting shoved around in the fourth quarters. Iowa held OSU's RBs to 2.7 YPC for the contest, while PSU held the Buckeye RBs to 4.8, a number skewed by one 41 yard bust. All other carries went for 2.7 YPC, an identical clip to Iowa. Those numbers are notable when you consider that Michigan's RBs ran for 4.8 YPC (with a long of 20) against Iowa and 7.5 YPC against PSU. In other words, two defenses that Michigan moved consistently were largely stifling the Ohio State rushing attack. 

The story was in the trenches. Ohio State's offensive line was consistently losing battles on the ground against the defensive line of those opponents. Stretch is one of their base running plays and it was going nowhere vs. Penn State: 

RG Matthew Jones (#55) is the culprit there. Here's one more, where the left side of the line (Paris Johnson Jr. and Donovan Jackson) get bullied into the backfield and Henderson is tripped up for a TFL: 

They have struggled in short yardage this season and against PSU, the Buckeyes were unable to pick up a 3rd & 1 on Iso: 

No push from Jackson or Johnson, and Jones is getting whipped again. This sort of thing popped up if you watched the Northwestern game as well, and it's why Ryan Day prefers to throw on 3rd/4th & short: they don't trust their OL to grind out the yards needed in those situations. The primary reason is that the Ohio State OL is built to protect their QB and facilitate their pass-heavy offense (something they do very well). They are not run-blocking first linemen and it shows against good defensive fronts. 

This isn't to say they haven't had their victories even in the games I watched. They showed out well in the second half against Maryland: 

And against PSU: 

But on the average play against the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions, OSU's OL was barely holding its own on the ground and in many cases, doing worse than that. If you can't stop Ohio State's run game, the game is over before it starts. But if you can, and several good defenses we've seen play OSU this season could, then there's a pathway to containment here. 

Stopping the OSU run game is a prerequisite to slowing down the Ohio State offense because it allows you to focus in on the passing attack, putting the Bucks in 2nd/3rd & long situations where you can then gamble with more aggressive blitzes to try and get off the field. Indeed, most stops I observed go something like this: meager passing play on either 1st/2nd down, run play stuffed on either 1st/2nd down, and then an aggressive blitz to force an incompletion on 3rd & 6-10.  

This provides a segue for us to talk about how to stop the passing game. Ohio State is going to get plenty of completions, because their WR talent is so good. The focus has to be on bend-not-break and getting off the field on 3rd down. The former is a matter of safeties not busting and other coverage-related questions, while the latter has to do with blitzing. Michigan cannot expect to get organic pressure in this game, not just because the Wolverines EDGE guys are not terribly great pass rushers this season, but I would feel this way even if Michigan had, say, Rashan Gary on the team. These OSU linemen are NFL-caliber pass blockers and I have not seen anyone get consistent organic pressure against the Buckeyes this season. 

Part of that is because PSU/Iowa/Maryland all lack high quality pass rushers like Michigan does, so what those teams all had to do to manufacture pressure is actually rather instructive for our Wolverines. The most aggressive strategy is the all-out, send-the-house blitz. Rutgers did this repeatedly and it had some success: 

That's a seven-man pressure that gets home and forces a desperate heave from Stroud as he's being hit. Coverage is good and it falls incomplete. 

Penn State tried their own seven-man pressures but they paired it with extremely soft coverage from the corners and thus had less success than you'd like: 

I understand what the point is. You have no safety help over the top and thus have to give the corners some cushion because a single bust could be a TD. However, stapling them at the line to gain more or less ensures that if Stroud's ball is accurate, it's going to be a first down. Why not play them five yards off on 3rd & 10? You still get cushion but have a shot of actually making the tackle short of the sticks if the ball is accurate. To Stroud's credit, he did very well at getting the slant out quickly against the all-out blitz, but as a general rule, his accuracy does deteriorate against pressure. Here a rusher gets free, Stroud dances around and gets out of his rhythm, throwing one of his rare INTs: 

This is a six man pressure by Iowa that forces an incompletion off the back foot: 

Mixing and matching 5, 6, and 7 man rushes is going to be essential to forcing incompletions and getting off the field.

Disguising where the pressure is coming from is also crucial. Penn State forced a fumble that ran out the remaining time in the first half, denying OSU three points, because they didn't pick up the rusher. The Lions show 7 but send 5, Dawand Jones the RT doesn't pick up the rusher and boom: 

Iowa got a hit on Stroud just after he released the ball when OSU didn't pick up a corner rushing on a six-man pressure, forcing an incompletion: 

When four-man rushes did have success, it was almost always through stunting. Iowa got a defensive TD on a scoop-n-score strip sack when a stunt got Joe Evans free against Jackson/Johnson on the left side: 

Michigan will have to throw the kitchen sink of pressures at Ohio State to pressure Stroud, but there's evidence to suggest some will have success and should be able to force stops here and there. Not getting pressure results in certain death and even if Michigan had great pass rushers, it would probably require blitzing. That they don't means blitzing will be the crux of the game plan.  

 

Tying it all together

Ohio State has an excellent offense with tons of weapons. They will move the ball. They will score points, probably in the 20s at bare minimum. Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to make a few outrageous catches and dunk on your DBs some. Stroud will deliver accurate balls when he has time to do so. Those are all easy assumptions. The game will be won based on how effectively Michigan can force field goals, get off the field, and generally slow down the Ohio State offense. The equation hinges some on how healthy Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the RBs are, but more importantly, it will be won and lost depending on the effectiveness of Michigan's blitz packages and their ability to stop the run (assuming of course that Michigan plays competent coverage and does not have glaring busts).

If the Maize & Blue are stopping the rushing game with consistency and using an array of blitzes to keep OSU off guard and generate pressure on 3rd downs, they have a good shot of replicating PSU/Iowa. That comes out to roughly 350-450 yards against. Pair that with not allowing defensive touchdowns and holding your own in the field position battle in a way that neither the Hawkeyes nor Nittany Lions did, and you can probably keep OSU to ~24-28 points, which may well be enough to win. But if the Michigan offense puts the defense in bad spots or is getting shoved around in the trenches, or the blitzes are not getting home, the OSU offense is capable of hanging 500 yards and 40+ points, in which case, forget about it.