miyan williams
It's rivalry week. The biggest game you've waited all year for is finally here and it is a clash of the titans, 11-0 vs. 11-0. Michigan and Ohio State. To get things going we're starting on the offensive side of the ball, where the Buckeyes have a great unit and a number of familiar faces from last season.
The Film: Ohio State has played a couple really good defenses this year and I wanted to focus in on the latter half of the season, which brings to mind Penn State and Iowa. Of the two, Iowa is definitely the better defense but unfortunately that game was a bit unusual, with Iowa's already-bad offense turning in an all-time horrible performance and gifting OSU exceptional field position on the majority of their drives. It is difficult to extrapolate much from a game in which the offense you're charting is starting every drive at the opponent's 25 yard line. So, I felt that Penn State was the more useful one to use, although I watched the extended highlights of the Iowa game as well as the most recent contest against Maryland and drew clips from both. In addition, I charted the Rutgers/OSU game back during Rutgers week and have some clips leftover. In other words, a lot of film went into this evaluation.
The personnel: Click for big or here for PDF.
The Buckeyes again sport one of the top offenses in the country, but the diagram is far less intimidating than last year's DEATH MACHINE diagram and the SP+ numbers back that up- their rating at the time of The Game last year on offense was 47.2, while this year's is 44.0. Last year they were 1st by a wide margin; this year they're fourth behind Tennessee, USC, and UCLA.
At QB we see the return of CJ Stroud for what is all but certain to be his final home game in the scarlet and gray. Stroud has completed another very good season and is among the foremost contenders to win the Heisman Trophy in a couple weeks. He has completed 66.4% of his passes for 9.7 Y/A, 35 TD to 4 INT. When the season concludes, Stroud will most definitely enter the NFL Draft and should be picked in the top ten slots, possibly as high as 1st overall.
The RB position is littered with question marks and injuries, as it is for Michigan. Miyan Williams has been their best back this season, a hefty bowling ball that requires several men to be brought down. The problem has been the injuries, which have limited him throughout the year. He missed the Michigan State game, returned to get 10 carries against Iowa, then got hurt again against PSU (2 carries). Williams returned the following weekend to shoulder a sizable load against Northwestern and Indiana, but then was carted off against the Hoosiers and did not suit up against Maryland. There is optimism he can go against Michigan, but we will largely be in the dark about him until there is further clarification.
Last year's primary starter TreVeyon Henderson is back at RB, but his stock has fallen some, with injuries contributing to him losing his star. Henderson's YPC is down a full 1.5 from last season and after sustaining an injury at the end of October, has played just one of the past three games. That was last week against Maryland, where he put up a dismal first half effort on the ground (more of an impact in the receiving game) before exiting and being seen on the sideline in a walking boot. When healthy, he's a lightning fast north-south runner, but he is likely not healthy whether or not he plays in The Game. Your author is higher on Williams because of his ability to break tackles but it's reasonable to assume that, like Michigan, neither RB will be 100% even if both play.
The injuries to both Henderson and Williams have forced Dallan Hayden into the limelight, a true freshman who was just outside the top 250 of the composite. Hayden has filled in a fair bit this year with the injuries but got his chance to shine against the Terps and took advantage of it. If Williams and Henderson cannot go, Hayden will be next man up to get a lot of the carries.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Ohio State's next receiving MUTANT]
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