What Happened? Michigan ground out a 2-1 win against #4 Ohio State in Columbus Friday night, then fell 4-2 to the Buckeyes (one goal was an empty-netter, so meh) on Saturday.

*Blank stare* Okay, yeah, context. Michigan beat Notre Dame in an outdoor game at Notre Dame Stadium January 5th for what appeared to be a win that could propel them to a second half akin to last season’s, then looked like a completely disinterested team during a rare Tuesday night game against Merrimack (the team, not the boat). Friday night’s win again left some hope for a second-half run, then Saturday night’s game… actually, Michigan didn’t look that bad Saturday night, either. There’s hope yet.

Things don’t look great from a Pairwise perspective, though. A cursory glance at the comparisons chart doesn’t reveal one big thing Michigan could do to make a move. They only have 11 games remaining and have to come as close to running the table as possible to steal some comparison points back. That would help, at least as long as the general volatility of the conference continues unabated; the top two teams, Ohio State and Minnesota, are 6-3-3 in conference play and third-place Michigan is 4-5-4. Beating Penn State in their next series (this weekend is a bye) would be a nice start, as Michigan is currently tied for the head-to-head comparison point. (If you’re looking for a Pairwise explainer, USCHO has a good one here.)

So this is another one of those years where Michigan has to win the conference tournament to earn a bid and gets matched up with Penn State, isn’t it? Sort of looks that way.

Anything to take from last weekend that might give us insight into what could happen during the stretch run? Seems like the kind of thing we should put after THE JUMP, no?

[Hit THE JUMP for weekend takeaways that might give insight into the stretch run]

The jersey read “Lavigne” and had #30 stitched on it, but who was that in net? The thing that stood out the most during my rewatch was how important Lavigne’s play was to keeping Michigan in both games last weekend, especially in the beginning portion of Saturday’s game. Michigan’s defensive effort was very good Friday, but they were sloppier on Saturday and the victim of a number of bad bounces that led to rushes the other way, and both of those things led to Lavigne getting hung out to dry over and over. He held Michigan in it, though, with saves like this…

Some neutral-zone confusion sees Hughes cover the guy Cecconi already has while letting Jobst, who weaved his way to open ice, free. Raabe also lets Jobst go to stay in the middle lane and then has way too much ice to cover by the time he realizes the puck is being sent Jobst’s direction. Can’t really blame him for having to make up space when Jobst is skating in with a defender facing him. Lavigne does it again here…

Pastujov braces to hit Dakota Joshua instead of keeping pace with the skater he was covering, and this results in a wide-open, high-grade chance once Joshua squeezes the puck past the converging Michigan players.

Sometimes the defensive mistakes weren’t due to mental mistakes but physical ones. Here getting outskated while everyone else checks their man leaves no good passing opportunities but instead allows a free chance from the high slot. Lavigne didn’t make the save, true, but that’s a snipe from a skater walking in all alone.

I mean, come on.

I felt very validated when I opened twitter after clipping all these GIFs and seeing that the first thing in my feed was an article by the Daily’s Tien Le about Lavigne’s surging play brought on by rededicating himself to working hard in practice. Worth noting that Lavigne got the start in the outdoor game against Notre Dame, but I thought it was back to the typical back and forth after Mann started against Merrimack. Le writes that the coaching staff knew they wanted Lavigne to start both games against OSU and gave Mann the Tuesday night start to keep Lavigne fresh for the weekend. Lavigne rewarded that confidence with his best series of the season.

The fourth line looked explosive, especially Friday night. “Explosive” is a carefully and deliberately selected adjective here because things sort of go both ways with this group. On the one hand, they were physical, fast, hard on pucks, good in the circle, and hard on the skater they were defending. They got to the front of the net below and screened and made all that happen by winning a board battle behind the net. Then everything goes haywire, but Raabe makes up for a ton of lost ground mostly thanks to a slow, flubbed pass. Raabe then attempts to block a shot that turns out to be a pass and still ends up in good position to block the shot. They bring energy, they make mistakes, they explode in every direction.

They also drove possession on Friday night in no small part because Garrett Van Wyhe won 9 of 10 faceoffs. Nick Pastujov was also good in the circle on Friday (9-of-16) and excellent Saturday (11-of-14), but Van Wyhe’s lackluster Saturday (7-of-18) and Michigan’s lower number of shot attempts are likely related.

This season’s offense: GIF edition. You’d be hard pressed to find a 20-second clip more emblematic of this team’s shot generation than the GIF below. It has it all: an attempt at setting up something dangerous with a cross-ice feed, a nothing shot just thrown on net, activated defensemen, and a puck flipped in deep. It’s a great illustration of Michigan generating a high number of shot attempts without creating top-notch scoring chances. Michigan out-attempted Ohio State by three on Friday night (55-52) before posting fewer shot attempts than their opponent for the first time in a long time Saturday night (53-48). It’s a rare night that Michigan doesn’t win the shot attempt race by double digits, and that’s by design. I think the philosophy behind that is sound: more shot attempts means Michigan has the puck more than the opponent. Puck possession theoretically benefits the offense and defense, but we shouldn’t equate shot attempts with scoring chances. This is just a reminder of that.

 Quinn Hughes is Corey Pronman’s top prospect outside the NHL for a reason. Find me another defenseman who can gain the zone at the far corner, cut to the middle, and skate with such smoothness that he sucks up both front-facing defenders while causing the goaltender to lock on (I’m guessing in anticipation of Hughes crossing the defenders’ faces, turning, and firing). His edgework just lured four guys into a trap. Hughes takes some chances defensively but man is he fun to watch with the puck on his stick.

Ninety-nine percent of players would see the position of the defense at the blue line and flip this ahead, hoping to dig it out in the corner and regain possession. To get the puck around the defender is crazy; to turn 180 degrees in the corner to find a teammate in the slot is insane

Trend Watch: Sharp-Shooting Slaker. Jake Slaker loses the faceoff but does a nice job communicating defensive assignments with Luke Morgan at the left point, then skates across the zone with his man. Slaker starts to get up ice to support an attempted clear from Jimmy Lambert. The puck is held in at the blue line but Slaker picks the pocket of the OSU skater.

At this point he’s out on a breakaway and could get another step or two on the defender. Instead of what I assume would be the defender converging on Slaker right about when he reaches Sean Romeo’s doorstep, Slaker slows. This allows Morgan to become part of the play and threatens a true 2-on-1. The defender has to play this in the middle to take away the pass, and the goaltender has to be prepared to take the shot. Slaker wrong-foots a wrister on the rush, and it’s a perfectly placed top-corner snipe that got Michigan on the board Friday night. Slaker scored in a similar fashion against Merrimack—on the rush, wiring a perfectly located shot top shelf—and if this is any indication of accuracy and not an anomaly then it’s the possible emergence of an offensive element for which Michigan’s been desperately searching.