Basketbullets: Delaware State Comment Count

Ace


Once again, we're here. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

Michigan beat Delaware State 80-33 on Saturday, and while the game itself didn't contain much of note, the shuffling of M's lineup due both to injury and personnel issues continued. There's enough of interest for a basketbullets post, starting with...

Mea culpa. So, yeah, I mailed in the game recap. My general stance on these games is to take them about as seriously as one should when the foe is a team that barely looks like they're playing the same sport, but despite the upcoming schedule—Northern Kentucky, Youngstown State, Bryant—I'll be shelving the bad poetry recaps. In my defense, Delaware State was so, so bad; they had as many turnovers (17) as combined made FGs and FTs.

Robinson replaces Dawkins. John Beilein made a move in the starting lineup that wasn't dictated by injury, replacing Aubrey Dawkins with Duncan Robinson. Beilein discussed the move in the postgame presser:

“We feel right now our flow defensively and offensively is better as a starter for Duncan. Get him in there and let him go and get more scorers out there. He and Aubrey do a lot of things very similar, there’s just a different flow right now with him. I think it make other guys better, and as we work at some of the things Aubrey’s working at, we can shore some of his weaknesses up, which I think we some of it today.

The justification is simple. While Dawkins has been a solid offensive player this year, he doesn't add as much on that end as Robinson—they're both mostly spot-up gunners and Robinson is outshooting Dawkins 60% to 39% on threes with a higher volume of attempts while dishing out more assists and turning the ball over less. Both have some degree of disastrous on defense all season, and with that continuing to be the case, Michigan might as well have Robinson out there as much as they can.

That said, when Michigan hits the meatier portion of the schedule, I wouldn't mind seeing Robinson move back to a sixth man role if Dawkins can be something other than awful on defense; bringing Robinson off the bench often allows him more time against an inferior matchup (the opponent's bench wing) when he's on the court.

The point guard situation. With Derrick Walton temporarily sidelined—he'll play tomorrow barring a setback—and Spike Albrecht permanently so, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman got the start and Andrew Dakich burned a planned redshirt (again) to provide backup minutes. With Walton returning, Dakich shouldn't be much of a factor going forward—he had four points, three assists, and two turnovers in 20 minutes—but Rahk's contributions are worth a closer look.

Rahk still isn't a point guard. He has seven assists and six turnovers in 195 minutes this year; his 6.8% assist rate is below every Michigan regular's mark aside from Dawkins and the three centers. He's mostly a drive-and-dish guy without much dish at the moment, but he's showed some signs he could be more on Saturday; after opening the season 3/13 from three, he buried 3/4 attempts against Delaware State. Granted, those shots were great looks, but Rahk looked more confident in his stroke than he has in the past. It'd be critical to M's spacing for him to be more of a three-point threat.

Irvin rounding into form... except in one critical area. Largely unnoticed during the tumultuous start to the season has been Zak Irvin's continued improvement in the Not Just A Shooter™ aspects of his game. He's making 57% of his shots inside the arc and has 31 assists against nine turnovers; he's become a legitimate drive-and-dish guy.

Unfortunately, Irvin's shot appears broken; after going 0/3 from deep on Saturday, he's now 7/38 on the season. Needless to say, he has to figure out what's wrong and correct it if Michigan wants to bounce back from their recent ugly stretch and push for a tournament spot.

Speaking of that recent stretch, it's a little early to write Michigan off considering how well their recent competition has done:

It's a similar story on KenPom: Xavier is 9th, SMU is 20th, and UConn is 26th. Michigan doesn't have a true signature win—Texas is 43rd on KP—but unless the very unexpected happens over the course of the next three games, they'll get through non-conference play without anything approaching a bad loss, which is a lot more than most of the Big Ten can say.

Comments

Tate

December 14th, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^

Someone made a good point on starting Robinson over Dawkins; supposedly he has a very intense pre-game routine for his outside shooting and starting could potentially keep him in rhythm a little more - as opposed to going through the warm-up and then sitting for 7 minutes on the bench.

GoBlueinMN

December 14th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^

All three of those teams looked like clear tournament teams to me (though SMU is not eligible for the postseason), with Xavier looking like a potential Final Four team, IMO. The loses, aside from the SMU loss, were not particularly discouraging for me. If the team can figure it out a little bit defensively, they will be just fine.

jmblue

December 15th, 2015 at 9:00 AM ^

But keep in mind that 1) Beilein's teams usually show a lot of growth as the season goes on and 2) we're still getting some guys up to speed (notably Irvin) while others have to adjust to new roles this season.  The three losses raise some warning flags but there is time to get things turned around.

spencerdsbaily

December 15th, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^

getting blown out like we have is that big of a deal.  First of all, Beilein's teams always suck at the beginning of the year and then do much better during Big Ten play (save last year where everything just fell apart).  We were 6-4 in the first ten games the year we went to the Elite 8 with Stauskus.  Second, having back surgery is a HUGE deal.  If you're surprised Zack can't find his shot then you're not being sensible.  He literally couldn't lift his own backpack for three months after the procedure and he can now outlift all of us.  The fact that he is almost completely back except for shooting isn't surprising, he'll be back.  Plus, every other facet of his game is better than last year.   Third, at least one of those losses is completely legitimate in Xavier.  They could easily be a final four team.  UConn was a bit overated and we probably should have won.  In, SMU we arrived on a plane hours before the game, what do you expect?  No excuses, but there are reasons things happen. I think we all thought this team would be a little bit further along and indeed they probably should be but we keep watching because we know Beilein will do something.  If you don't want Beilein as your coach then get off this site.

lilpenny1316

December 14th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^

those teams are usually completely different by March.  MEAC teams have pulled some surprises in the tournament the past 20 years, but those teams are typically chock full of transfers, so it takes a while for them to jell into a dangerous team.  It makes any film of a game played in November/December less valuable.

DrewGOBLUE

December 14th, 2015 at 6:56 PM ^

Not just the Appalachian Mountains, either. They were the first Europeans to reach North America altogether when Leif Erikson and a bunch of Vikings landed in Newfoundland and hung out there for a bit.

This was around 1000 AD, so I'm not even sure why everyone's taught growing up that Columbus discovered America.

jmblue

December 15th, 2015 at 9:14 AM ^

The Norse aren't given that much credit because their discoveries didn't lead to general European interest in the New World.  It also wasn't clear that they'd landed upon an entirely new continent.  It seemed that they'd just found a few icy islands and that didn't excite many people.

ypsituckyboy

December 14th, 2015 at 4:12 PM ^

Also, re Irvin's shot, I think it's always been broken. He's had some hot-shooting stretches in his time at Michigan and had a good Fr year (42%) and okay Soph year (35%) if you look just at the numbers. But if you look on a game by game basis, he bolstered those numbers by feasting on bad competition early in the year. His shooting during B1G seasons has been pretty average.

His form isn't good, never has been, and isn't at all repeatable. You're not gonna make a lot of shots when half the time you're shooting a rainbow and the other half it's a low line-drive. Watching him against Robinson is night and day. Robinson's shot looks nearly identical every single time.

Lanknows

December 14th, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^

Did it as a "just-a-shooter" freshman and struggled to do it as the focal point of defenses last year.  His role went from 5th option to 1st option so, if anything, 36% is an accomplishment. 

Irvin shot 43% from 3 against Big Ten teams in 2014 and 50% in the tournament run.

Anyway, Trey Burke shot 35% from 3 his freshman year and 38% his sophomore year, so let's not act like this is some problem...

Lanknows

December 14th, 2015 at 4:25 PM ^

I think it's very fair to not read too much into these games, but the personnel/rotation changes can be notable.

Does this game change anything long-term for Chatman? No.

But it's still encouraging to see more signs of hope. At least it's something to build on because the alternative is...

Does Donnal not playing mean anything?  Yes.

Barring foul trouble he's out of the rotation and uphill battle to get back, even with Wilson out a while.

Does Dakich playing mean anything going forward? YES!

Probably, if Beilein's track record means anything to you.  MAAR's minutes are under threat and there's a very good chance Dakich may steal 5-8 mpg from MAAR as Walton's primary backup.  It may be a match-up dependant thing, but if Dakich can come in and give high energy play for a bit that's an asset.  Dakich might be (probably is) a better 3-shooter than MAAR, so if he can play 3-4 minutes in a half without giving away more than a basket on D, he'll probably play.  MAAR's a very even-keeled guy which can be an asset, but Michigan already has that in Caris and Zak.  Dakich might offer some overt enthusiasm to fuel this team.

Don't sell grit short.  Also - it sometimes takes the other side out of their flow when they try too hard to exploit Dakich on defense. This was the case for Michigan a few years ago when they tried to use Stauskas to kill Jordan Hulls and it failed spectacularly.

Is Irvin's shooting slump something to worry about? No, but ask again in 3 weeks.

This is a silver lining to the ridiculously easy schedule - Zak will get an opportunity to get right.  If a month from now Zak is still shooting under 30% I'll eat a piece of fruit of my choosing.

Lanknows

December 15th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^

We'll just have to wait and watch, but I'd love to wager on this. Dakich is going to play in real meaningful situations.  They didn't burn his red-shirt just to play him in non-conference games.  Those minutes come from somewhere/someone.

While MAAR would absolutely roast Dakich one-on-one and has an obvious talent advantage, that's not what team basketball is all about.  MAAR's can drive, score, and defend but he takes things off the table too: poor outside shooter (spacing) , passer, and turnover prone.  He doesn't fit around the other pieces Michigan has that well.

Dakich can bury open 3s, initiate the offense, pass to the open man, and play with great energy.  His drawback is the he'll eventually be exploited on defense, but it'll probably take a few possessions for the opposition to figure that out, so not a real issue in 2-4 minute stretches to give Walton a rest.

If Michigan needed a guy to score or lock down Valentine, then MAAR will get the call.  If Walton gets 2 fouls 5 minutes into the game, MAAR will get the call for extended duty. But when Michigan just needs to buy a few minutes and keep things going, I bet it'll be Dakich, not MAAR that Beilein looks to.

THIS Michigan team doesn't need another scorer, it needs role players.  They're trying to get that from Chatman, Dawkins, and MAAR but the results have been...mixed, lets say.