SPONSOR NOTE FEATURING FREE BEER. HomeSure Lending is once again sponsoring our NCAA Tournament coverage this year. Matt will be hosting an informal watch party tonight at HOMES Brewery, and buying the first round for any MGoBlog readers who come. If you're looking at buying a house this spring/summer you should talk to him soon.

ICYMI. Part one of the pre-tourney mailbag addressing what constitutes success, the sixth man factor, the possibility of a two-big lineup, and late game free-throw lineups can be found right here. Part two, on M's most important player, Z's lockdown sustainability, splitting defensive credit, and managing the tourney rotation is here.

Brian posted the Montana game preview on Tuesday. We'll bump it back up to the top of the front page later this afternoon.

Teske Awakens

A better feel for the game has unleashed Teske. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

From the moment Jon Teske arrived at Michigan, the seven-footer's potential as a defender was obvious. He's been excellent on that end in his sophomore season and still has room to grow into an elite rim protector. When Teske has been on the court this season, Michigan's defense improves by 0.14 points per possession, per Hoop Lens—about the same gap as that between M's fifth-ranked defense and 195th-ranked High Point.

It wasn't as clear if he'd find his way on offense. He looked ponderous and lost as a freshman, and through the first half of this season there still hadn't been a significant breakthrough—his effectiveness as a backup center came almost entirely from his defense.

Over the last month, however, the light came on. Teske played only 18 combined minutes across three games culminating in the February 11th trip to Wisconsin. To that point, facing top-75 competition (venue-adjusted), Teske made only 13-of-28 two-point attempts in 13 games—nobody that big and skilled should be sub-50% inside the arc. He's 8-for-13 on twos in the six top-75 games since, culminating in the 14-point outburst at Purdue, while averaging over 15 minutes in that span. He's finishing with an authority he hadn't shown previously, as Isaac Haas can tell you.

Teske's also settling into the offense in ways that don't show up in his personal stat line. Using data from Hoop Lens, here are Michigan's offensive stats with Teske on the floor before and after the trip to Madison (top-100 non-conf. games and Big Ten only):

There's noise in here, to be sure—the nearly ten-point gap in three-point shooting should be attributed more to luck than anything Teske is doing. A six-point difference in two-point percentage is less fluky and remarkably impactful, however, and there's reason to believe it's sustainable based on the film.

Beilein's offense requires quick reads based on how the defense reacts to certain actions; Teske suddenly looks way more comfortable and adept at being in the right place. The posterization of Haas is one example: Teske sees that Zavier Simpson drew two defenders, trails the play, gives Z a target, and goes to the rim with bad intentions. We didn't see that level of decisiveness from him often before.

Where he's really standing out is in the pick-and-roll, an area he previously struggled. According to Synergy, he only used 27 possessions as the roll man in 31 regular season games; in the BTT, he had eight in four games. Seemingly all of his teammates have a greater chemistry with him, which means he's making the correct reads. Here he perfectly times a slip with Duncan Robinson handling the ball and adjusts his roll to get an open short jumper instead of a contested look from Dutch windmill Matt Haarms:

On this P&R with Simpson, Teske extends the pick—he's done a good job of ensuring he makes contact with his hip without picking up fouls—which causes a switch; he trails Z to the hoop, gets his hands up for an easy target, establishes great position against Haas, and follows his own miss. He got an easier, rim-rattling finish when he timed his roll with Haas leaving his feet while putting pressure on MAAR.

While Teske's scoring made headlines in the Purdue game, it's been his ability to open up lanes for others that's made the most consistent impact. Charles Matthews going left off the dribble surely caught the MSU defense off guard, but Teske ensured it ended in a dunk by flipping his screen and effectively cutting off the path of both Miles Bridges and Xavier Tillman:

He helped Simpson get a bucket on Tum Tum Nairn by once again flipping the pick, then boxing out Tillman after slipping to the basket and gaining inside position.

This one may be my favorite. Teske sets two screens for Z, getting great contact on the first and drawing an extra defender when he slips the second. This would've opened up a spot-up three for most M players but the help defender is leaving Matthews, who gets the ball and drives hard into traffic. Teske, who'd been looking for an entry pass, recognizes this and gets into position to pick off a defender, giving Matthews the space to rise and fire:

Here's one more just to show not everything has to go to the rim when Teske's out there: a three-pointer by MAAR after he doubles back off the initial screen and executes a quick give-and-go.

In addition to all that, Teske has started turning more of his stops at the rim into outright blocks and steals. He's going to be an excellent player next year. Meanwhile, he should get plenty of chances to shine in this tournament, and his ability to provide a different look from Wagner with minimal drop in team production could very well swing a game or two.

[Hit THE JUMP for much more.]

Charles Matthews, Efficient Role Player

Opponents' thoughts exactly, Miles. [Campredon]

It wasn't all that long ago Michigan was headed for the bubble with a merely decent offense relying heavily on Charles Matthews. As Simpson and MAAR have grown comfortable in bigger roles, however, Matthews has become an ancillary weapon. UMHoops' Ethan Sears found that's made Matthews a much more effective offensive player [emphasis mine]:

In the five games leading up to March Madness, Matthews’ usage rate has hovered around 17 percent, per Bart Torvik, well below his season average of 25.3%. He used under 20% of Michigan’s offensive possessions in all four games in New York City, something he hadn’t done in a Big Ten game since January 6th.

Matthews has also been more efficient in that role. He posted an offensive rating over 100 in four of Michigan’s last five games. He had managed to post that baseline level of efficiency in only 4 of his 15 games leading up to that stretch.

Matthews turning into more of a cutter/finisher and opportunistic slasher instead of a go-to guy has made a significant impact on one of his most glaring weaknesses: turnovers. Heading into the BTT, Matthews had a 17.7% turnover rate; that plummeted to 8.4% in the four tourney games. Michigan is already opening up a possession gap on most teams with their turnover avoidance and defensive rebounding; Matthews settling in as a role player gives M even more of an advantage in that area. 

Open Swim

Showing flashes of NJAS™. [Campredon]

Jordan Poole had a rough Big Ten Tournament, there's no doubt. His shot looked badly off; he didn't make any of his nine three-point attempts. The good news, at least in retrospect, is his shooting struggles didn't appear to impact his confidence one iota, and there's a good chance this isn't a long-term issue; he'd gone 9-for-12 from beyond the arc in his previous three games before the BTT.

Over the last month, Poole has also shown the potential for a Stauskasian leap next year when he assumes a greater role in the offense. As most of you recall, Stauskas was mostly a spot-up shooter as a freshman with Trey Burke running the show, posting a season-long assist rate of 7.6%—not quite Freshman Zak Irvin level of black hole, but not far off. The next season, of course, Stauskas became the primary ballhandler and his assist rate jumped to 18.8%.

Up to the Iowa game on Valentine's Day, Poole had posted an assist of... 7.6%. Since then, however, he's been more generous with the basketball, bumping his assist rate up to 12.1%—far from lead guard production but at least providing the threat of the pass. He's done so while keeping his turnovers in check.

Poole, like Teske, is showing a better feel for the system. In Poole's case, he already had great offensive instincts coming in—this has more been a product of him slowing down instead of immediately looking to get buckets. This play early in the shot clock is a great example, even though it initially looks like aimless dribbling:

I'll leave it to Ant Wright to describe what happened here:

Great slow to quick tempo by Poole to create the action for either Teske or Matthews.. defense bit on Teske, Poole hits Matthews

That’s next level defense reading

— Ant Wright (@ItsAntWright) March 4, 2018

Poole's hard crossover didn't just draw the two defenders involved in the pick-and-roll, it also caused Dakota Mathias to help off Matthews in the corner. With a quick pass, Poole gave Matthews a great catch-and-shoot look.

Provided his shot didn't abandon him for the year, Poole should give quality minutes this tournament, and his future is exceptionally bright regardless.

For more Poole, please click on this very important Twitter thread. Here's one critical omission.

Women Make The Tourney, Too

Katelynn Flaherty is M's all-time leading scorer. [all photos: George Borel]

We can only cover so much here, but we've been remiss in not mentioning the women's program.

Last year, Kim Barnes-Arico led the program to their best season in years, and even after a rough close to the season it appeared a 22-9 record would be enough to earn their first NCAA bid since 2012-13, KBA's debut season in Ann Arbor. Instead, the Wolverines were shockingly left out and had to settle for the hollow consolation of an NIT championship.

With program all-time leading scorer Katelynn Flaherty moving to point guard, Michigan got off to another scorching start before closing with five losses in their last eight games to post a record of... 22-9, albeit with an improved RPI thanks to a few more quality wins. This time the Wolverines got the call:

Sheer joy. #goblue  pic.twitter.com/tYrroyeDxI

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) March 12, 2018

The Wolverines are a seven-seed. They'll take on ten-seed Northern Colorado on Friday at 5 pm ET on ESPN2, and a victory would almost certainly give them a shot at a monumental upset against two-seed Baylor. This weekend is likely to be your last chance to watch Flaherty, who's fifth in the country in scoring at 23.2 points per game, as well as fellow senior Jillian Dunston, one of the better rebounders to come through the program.