[David Nasternak]

2020 Recruiting: Braiden McGregor Comment Count

Brian July 27th, 2020 at 1:33 PM

Previously: Last year's profiles. S Makari Paige, S RJ Moten, S Jordan Morant, CB Andre Seldon, CB Darion Green-Warren, CB Eamonn Dennis, VP William "Apache" Mohan, LB Nikhai Hill-Green, LB Kalel Mullings, LB Cornell Wheeler, LB Osman Savage, DE Aaron Lewis, DE Jaylen Harrell.

 
Port Huron, MI – 6'6", 260
 

20191218_fbl_mcgregor_hs

24/7 4*, #122 overall
#4 SDE, #2 MI
Rivals 4*, 5.8 rating
#17 SDE, #11 MI
ESPN 4*, #32 overall
#2 ATH, #1 MI
Composite 4*, #123 overall
#5 SDE, #2 MI
Other Suitors ND, OSU, UF, Clemson (TE), Bama (TE)
YMRMFSPA Aidan Hutchinson
Previously On MGoBlog Hello post from yrs truly. FBO from Adam and Dave.
Notes Twitter.

Film

Junior Year:

Braiden McGregor is this year's most divisive prospect, ranked just outside of five-star territory by the ESPN recruiting zombie, just outside the top 100 by 24/7, and barely a four star by Rivals. He's Rivals's #17 SDE. Their #18 SDE, Tonka Hemingway, is a three-star. (Yes, that's Junior Hemingway's brother.) He's not even top ten in the state.

A lot of this goes back to camps. Yes, we're talking about camps. McGregor went to many of them. Since Rivals only goes to its own now—and seems to massively overrate their utility—a big chunk of his ranking rested on his output there. Not so much:

… looks like a million bucks, but he was very easy to block and way too upright in one-on-ones. He has a lot of technique to work on.

Other notes from Rivals camps include "up and down… knocked down once and battled to a lot of draws," and "didn't really utilize his athleticism when trying to get to the quarterback … forgettable day," amongst other disappointed dad quotes. They did put him on their "All Lobby Team" because he is a huge person with little bad weight.

[After the JUMP: we continue to talk about camps]

When McGregor went to regional camps for the Opening and the UA game, it was a different story. 24/7 named him the ALPHA DOG of the Cincinnati UA camp, which drew a half-dozen other highly touted four stars:

nearly impossible to stop coming off the edge … won nearly all of his reps. ….asked to flip over to the offense and play tight end  … outstanding catching the football. The combination of size (6-foot-5.5, 248-pounds), speed, and athleticism was on full display on both sides of the football. … going to be an excellent edge defender at the college level

He missed ALPHA DOG status at the Opening camp, but not by much:

… very impressive. … one of the best athletes in attendance as far as size and twitch to go along with his big frame. He could really get off the ball and redirect.

McGregor briefly shot up to fringe five-star territory on 24/7. He also got plugged into ESPN's system as a five-star (or close enough) and forgotten about. This inevitably led to a bunch of people yelling at Rivals and the occasional snippy note about how "when a prospect is ranked highly one place fans tend to think everyone else has him underrated."

If this sounds familiar, that's because it is. Just two years ago Greg Frey swooped in for a one-year cameo as OL coach, picking off two prototype Greg Frey tackles. Frey tackles are lanky athletes to hang muscle on. Meanwhile the Rivals regional analyst doesn't seem to want to project kids into the future.

As a result Jalen Mayfield and Ryan Hayes were barely ranked in Power 5 territory until Mayfield had an impressive showing at his all star game—yes, Rivals had a guy going to an all star game ranked like a Vandy commit. Mayfield got a bump as regional analyst is seemingly overruled, Hayes got stuck as the #17 player in the state, and a couple years later they're the bookends for Michigan's line with Mayfield an early draft entry candidate. Regional analyst at the time:

Q: Michigan only signed two offensive linemen and they're both from Michigan. What do you think about the duo?

A: ...I’ll be interested to see how they pan out. I don’t think that we had them as highly valued as Michigan did or as other places did. We’ll have an interesting look back in four to five years and see who was closer to being accurate with that.

Only needed two years to find out who was right: a wide variety of D-1 coaches and the rest of the industry.

This is a near-identical situation. McGregor has rare physical traits and hasn't put it all together yet. A variety of southern powers offered him as a tight end, a position he does not play a ton of, because I mean just look at him.

Allen Trieu:

prototypical frame … Tall, longer arms, well-muscled, … very good athlete who can run, redirect, and chase plays down  … great motor. Still working on technique. Once he adds more violent hands and some go-to pass rush moves to his arsenal he will be tough to stop…. athletic enough to be [a weakside end].

 Touch The Banner:

has the ability line up all over the field – defensive end, outside linebacker, tight end, wide receiver, etc. … good size with the ability to pack more weight onto his frame. He has good initial quickness off the ball and solid change-of-direction skills to rush the passer. His closing speed is a positive, and he’s a violent hitter when he arrives. … jack of all trades … just a good athlete doing great things on the football field. His pass rushing technique is pretty rudimentary. … needs to improve his hand placement and his pad level

Adam:

…good burst off the ball … tremendously strong for a high school defensive lineman and has the kind of nasty streak that’s usually discussed when scouting offensive linemen. … [will] need to work on syncing [his hands] with his footwork in college. … intangibles for a good strong-side end are all there, and the issues apparent in this game seem correctable.

The Notre Dame people were particularly enamored. If you've followed this series you are probably aware that the best-scouted prospects in any particular class are the ones Michigan has pried away from the Irish. Here McGregor was always a solid Michigan lean in the eyes of all except Tom Loy, and the ND scouting reports still seemed like they were written by cartoon wolves. Tim Prister:

… one of the most versatile defensive players in the entire class … size, athleticism and natural aggression … has the mobility and quick-twitch footwork to be a weakside defensive end. His size says strongside; his agility and length say weakside. … feet and change of direction are outstanding. He plays with an athletic wide base. He is nimble when it’s required coming off the edge, or he can physically manhandle an offensive lineman … closing speed is top-of-the-line with his athleticism and length. … If he’s not a five-star prospect … he’s a high four-star.

Brian Driskell:

…one of my favorite players in the entire class … tape screams Top 100 … tremendous size and an elite frame. … once he gets some weight room strength his game is going to explode. … upside is truly special. … smooth and his athletic movements are easy. … [has] range, athleticism and coverage skills …. isn’t stiff at all  … nimble athlete that can rush off the edge with speed … will need to refine his technique

Corey Bodden:

…. huge amount of athleticism for his size … can play sideline-to-sideline and make tackles behind the line of scrimmage too. … length and reach … [gets] on offensive tackles, gets around them and bends  … size and athleticism are what sets him apart tremendously.

Prister would later re-iterate that he has the "rare versatility" to play both SDE and Notre Dame's "drop end," which is essentially the "buck" position Mario Ojemudia was at—a weakside end that has some ability to drop into coverage. Rivals would assert the same because "despite his [then] three-star ranking, there are very few recruits in the class at any position with more talent and tools."

We've seen this before. And as Trieu points out, there are some good reasons why McGregor might have been slow to pick it up in camp settings:

"…he really played different sports all year round. He never trained fully on football. He still hadn’t worked on defensive line technique. I’m not really worried about that. You put on his game film and that’s guy who can really run, change direction, plays with a motor, (has a) big frame, and you saw the twitchiness."

We were also here with Chris Wormley, a jumbo potential-laden DE who hadn't put up commensurate high school production. Rivals's the #22 player in the 2012 Ohio class was a first team All Big Ten player and a third-round pick. It's a trend.

About that injury: it sounds nasty. He damaged his MCL, PCL, and meniscus and had to be carried off the field. You never know with these things but so far so good with his recovery. McGregor was telling people he was ahead of schedule last winter:

"At first, they were saying I wouldn’t be ready until fall ball, and now they’re saying I’ll be able to do spring [drills],” said McGregor, who’s able to walk on his own with a brace.

“That’s a big plus. I start running next month when I get there. I’ll be ready to go by fall, for sure.”

He is very opposed to a redshirt, and Don Brown has floated the idea of playing him at the Uche spot, at least temporarily. I'd imagine that takes the form of a freelance pass rusher on long yardage downs and not McGregor trying to operate as a legitimate 3-3-5 linebacker.

Etc.: Do it:

After the signing ceremony, one reporter pointed out to Braiden that Winovich has long hair like several hockey players.

"I used to have hair like his for hockey," Braiden responded, pointing to his shoulders. "I used to have it down to here. We'll see if that comes back. I might have to bring it back."

Major Notre Dame target, so that means two things: lots of scouting and Tom Loy going Full Loy:

I think this comes down to how badly he wants a degree from Notre Dame. It’s not as easy to take on the challenges of being a student-athlete at Notre Dame compared to other schools. … If he’s up for the challenge and believes it’s worth it, in my opinion, he’ll pick Notre Dame.

Oblig.

Why Aidan Hutchinson? This is everyone's comparison—Webb said he was "eerily similar" and McGregor himself said he and Hutchinson "get compared a lot." I can't argue. Super-sized SDE type with a ton of athleticism and uncommon bend; dual-sport lacrosse athlete with the plus footwork this usually brings; shot up over the course of his recruitment by continually beefing; first name ends with "aidan," give or take an E.

Hutchinson stayed healthy during his senior year and laid waste to the All American Bowl, earning big moves up in his final ranking—moves up that were not sufficient since he's tracking towards the first couple rounds of the draft. McGregor did not have that opportunity due to the injury and thus didn't get the late bump.

If the more pessimistic view turns out to be correct, Ryan Van Bergen is a solid comp. Van Bergen was an athletic tight end/DE sort in high school who became a 6'6", 290 pound SDE. He was an above-average Big Ten DE but not of much interest to the NFL.

Guru Reliability: Uh… moderate? Lot of scouting. Very large enthusiasm gap.

Variance: Moderate. Not a whole lot of bust potential but the injury plus the need to refine his technique could mean he tops out as a pretty good player.

Ceiling: Very high. The ND takes are probably a bit overheated but this is a fluid 6'6" guy who could easily be a first-rounder.

General Excitement Level: Very high. More concerned about the knee injury than another Mayfield/Hayes eval from Rivals. Should be at least a B+ player and strong possibility he's a first or second day pick.

Projection: McGregor is determined not to redshirt and thus probably will not. Some chance the knee injury delays him enough so that it makes more sense to only play four games. Likely will get some passing down reps, potentially in that Uche spot, as a freshman.

Michigan will have at least one and maybe two openings at DE in 2021. McGregor will be a strong candidate to start. He has to fend off some older guys like uh… whichever SDEs haven't been panic-swapped to DT, Luiji Vilain, and David Ojabo. I think one of the latter two could keep McGregor in a rotation role as a second-year player if Hutchinson stays. Once he goes it's hard to see anyone on the roster keeping McGregor out of the SDE spot.

Comments

Blake Forum

July 27th, 2020 at 1:57 PM ^

Composite only had him as the #2 player in Michigan in the 2020 class. Do not want, Harbaugh is recruiting the state of Michigan worse than Luke Fickell at Cincinnati 

Champeen

July 27th, 2020 at 2:52 PM ^

When Josh Helmholdt was at the wolverine, he was decent IMO.  Then he got bumped to Regional analyst midwest  (I believe is the ONLY ONE while they have like 6 southest ones!).  

At first, he overly tried to show that he was non-biased towards Michigan.  Like, REALLY attempted to display it so he could try to gain the respect of other programs fans. 

Now, i just think he is bad at what he does.

Some of the reasons to back up his opinions are just - ridiculous.

Magnus

July 27th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^

I think Helmholdt is one of those guys who kind of got "fat and happy" (not physically) where he is. He's a little old and stodgy in his ways, and he doesn't evaluate players well unless they come to a Rivals camp and he can see them in person.

In a lot of areas, this is a guy who moves on to a management position rather than being on the front lines...but he's still on the front lines.

Joby

July 27th, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^

Noticed this too, chuckled about it and said to myself I'd comment on it if no one else did. 

McGregor seems like a very good athlete who is raw and needs some time to learn nuances. Besides Hutchinson, the other player who came to mind for me was Taco Charlton, who was 6'6" and 280 playing SDE and WDE when he left as a first-rounder, but was a raw two-sport guy who lined up everywhere in HS and thus needed to learn the position in college. They're both lofty comparisons, though, so time will tell for McGregor.

bronxblue

July 27th, 2020 at 3:40 PM ^

I'll be honest - I thought Rivals had gone out of business and then remembered that was Scout.  I've largely come to expect the best recruiting reviews to come from 247 (not necessarily their composite but their actual rankings), and for ESPN and Rivals to have enough weird tendencies (ESPN to fire and forget, Rivals to only care about their camps) that reading too much into an outlier isn't worth it.  

McGregor looks like an elite athlete who will find plus performance anywhere on the field provided he can focus on learning the technique.  That would be my one concern early on is that in his zeal to see the field he floats around a bit and looks like a really athletic-but-lost-puppy out there.

Magnus

July 27th, 2020 at 3:41 PM ^

I've seen some people compare him to Brennen Beyer, but I think McGregor was is about two years ahead of Beyer in physical development. Freshman year is tough, especially without spring ball and when you missed your senior season, but I think McGregor can be as good as a sophomore as Beyer was as a senior. I like this kid.

MGoStrength

July 27th, 2020 at 8:40 PM ^

I've seen some people compare him to Brennen Beyer, but I think McGregor was is about two years ahead of Beyer in physical development. Freshman year is tough, especially without spring ball and when you missed your senior season, but I think McGregor can be as good as a sophomore as Beyer was as a senior.

I always thought Beyer was a bit overrated as a recruit.  He never seemed like a top 100-ish level recruit.  He seemed more like just a guy at UM.  His entire career only generated 8.5 sacks at UM.  He never struck me as an explosive edge guy like McGregor seems to touted as.  Am I way off based or just have too high of expectations to expect more like 20 career sacks thank 8.5?

Magnus

July 28th, 2020 at 9:25 AM ^

I don't think your expectations are off base. His offer list did not reflect his recruiting ranking. I expected a little more out of him, but he did less than what his ranking suggested.

Ranking > My expectation > Actual performance

MGoStrength

July 27th, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^

Please give us a multi year Charlton senior year level of production aka 2 year double digit sack totals.  

OkemosBlue

July 27th, 2020 at 6:43 PM ^

You convinced me long ago that rankings are often dubious, and I try to pay as little attention to their rankings as possible and as much as possible to your rankings.  I also don't much care about what the NFL thinks about a college player except as it reflects on their college play, which it does to some extent.  McGregor needs coaching but looks like a winner in college.  Thanks for the great analysis!