Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in last week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One, Big Ten Tiers Part Two, Position Preview: Definitely Guards, Position Preview: Wings

Previewpalooza tips off today with a look at the big men, the group undergoing the greatest amount of change in the transition from John Beilein, a guy who never saw a post-up he particularly liked, to Juwan Howard, a guy who literally performed hundreds upon hundreds of post-ups himself at the highest level of basketball.

Howard played power forward, and that particular position may see more of a philosophical shift than any other as it moves from wing to post. Given the team's personnel, that may very well work to their advantage. You're going to see 6'11" Colin Castleton playing alongside 7'1" Jon Teske. They're going to run some post-to-post, high-low action. They're going to put the ball on the floor with their back to the basket. They're going to block a lot of shots.

There's also Brandon Johns, perhaps the biggest wild card on a team full of them. In the minutes that Isaiah Livers isn't playing the four, Michigan's frontcourt is going to look more like a Michigan State vintage than anything the Wolverines have trotted out there—with the brief exception of Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson, if you're pushing it—in decades.

That's not to say the team is going backwards. Howard has seen first-hand how big men have evolved from Shaqs and Oakleys to Jokices and Porzingi. You're still going to see a ton of high screens, and while they may emphasize the roll a bit more, there's still going to be some pop to the perimeter. Teske and Castleton both display a level of post prowess that could translate into a decent portion of an effective offense. Even while switching the way they approach pick-and-roll defense—more on that later—they should be very good at protecting the paint.

The big men are big. They're going to play big. They're also pretty skilled. This could be fun.

#15 Jon Teske

​gtfo [Campredon]

Year: Senior
Height/Weight: 7'1"/265
Key Counting Stats: 27.9 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.7 SPG, 2.0 BPG, 61/30/59 (2P%/3P%/FT%)
Key Advanced Stats:  17.0% usage, 120.1 ORtg, 8.4 OR%, 20.2 DR%, 6.3 TORate, 34.6 FTRate, 7.4 Blk%

Both the Big Ten coaches and media left Teske off the 2018-19 all-conference third team in favor of MSU's Nick Ward, and I think we can definitively call that a mistake after Ward left for any pro opportunity that'd come calling (the Turkish Basketball League, as it turned out) to avoid sitting behind Xavier Tillman all year and Teske anchored the country's #2 defense on a team whose primary backup center was actually a 6'7" wing. Teske should've been closer to second team than honorable mention.

That's first and foremost for his defense, which is dominant beyond the two blocks per game and excellent rebounding. Remember how the offense died whenever Zavier Simpson sat on the bench? Teske's presence had the same impact on the other end—here's data against top-100 opponents from last year via Hoop Lens:

The absence of Teske's gravity as a roll man (and maybe some general three-point luck, too) knocked a tenth of a point per possession off the offense, which is by no means small, but opponents scored 0.19 more PPP on the Wolverines when Teske hit the bench—or ~13 more points over a standard 68-possession game—and the difference comes almost entirely from opponents finding both scoring and rebounding to be a lot easier on the interior.

[Hit the jump for an obscene defensive shot chart.]

This makes sense when you look at Teske's defensive shot chart.

Jiminy F. Christmas. I don't need to tell you that holding opponents below 40% at the rim is bonkers. Same with limiting them to 9-for-42 (21%) shooting on other twos. If the worst thing you can say about your center is he gave up 38% on a very low volume of three-point attempts, he's defending pretty damn well, and Howard is likely to put Teske in a position to defend on perimeter even less.

That's because Michigan is changing up their pick-and-roll defense from the much-maligned-until-the-defense-got-awesome hard hedge of recent years, which featured the center aggressively helping out on the point guard before a long recovery to the rolling big man, to more "drop" and "ice" coverage, which both feature the big man staying below both the ballhandler and screener. This is a big transition, and Teske had a couple moments in the exhibition in which he looked unsure how to best time his drop, but once he's comfortable this should give him more chances to block shots and decrease the likelihood of picking up cheap fouls chasing guards on the perimeter.

He's going to be one of the best defensive centers in the country, again. I can't poke around the advanced stat sites without hitting an absurd Teske figure, like allowing two points in 16 possessions when opponents got him in isolation and drove left, towards his strong hand. This is an impressive combination of him denying face-up big men and overly ambitious perimeter players attacking what is often a positional mismatch.

Teske's offensive skill still feels overlooked, or maybe just underutilized. While his free throws indicate he's not going to be anything close to Moe Wagner as a shooter, he's got range to be a semi-viable three-point threat, the touch to hit midrangers off the short roll, and good finishing ability at the rim. His passing out of the post hasn't been explored much despite him showing serious potential in that regard. Get ready for small sample theater: on the six possessions last year that ended on a shot derived from Teske passing out of a post-up, Michigan scored 15 points on 5-for-6 shooting with no turnovers, per Synergy.

This is not something we normally root for around here: Teske's astonishingly low 6.3% turnover rate, fourth in the country last season, needs to come up this year as a sign that he's being fully unleashed. This is almost assured. We're going to see a lot of plays out of the "horns" set this year; this, from Friday's exhibition, is one of them, and Teske unleashes a perfect bounce pass to get Johns a layup:

Teske has the ability to pass his teammates open, not just hit open teammates; the place he puts the above pass practically forces Johns to seal off his defender, which was not his first instinct. He'll be used in a lot of high-low sets with Castleton and Johns as finishers; when teams overplay the paint, he's shown the ability to pick out shooters. He can certainly see a lot of the floor from up there.

Meanwhile, Teske finished in the 82nd percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man and was especially effective when he slipped the pick or rolled to the basket instead of popping out for a jumper. That'll still be the base of the offense, and an effective one. I suspect we'll see his post-ups skyrocket; including passes that led directly to shots, he had 38 such possessions last year. The very first offensive possessions against Saginaw Valley State was a Teske post-up bucket—and that was the play's first option.

Teske looked good on the other end of the high-low action, too. While the team didn't post up a lot on Friday against SVSU, it sounds like they did so more in the closed scrimmage against UD Mercy, in which Teske scored 15 on 7-for-11 shooting and Colin Castleton added eight points.

Among last year's five starters, only Simpson ended possessions with a shot at a lower rate than Teske, and there was a substantial gap between those two and the #3 option, Jordan Poole. Even if Michigan hadn't lost all three starting wings, that distribution was going to shift with this coaching change; Teske will be used more as a primary scoring option and playmaker.

The Big Ten has some very good big men; Teske should be up there with any of them for postseason honors, and may even get acknowledged as such if his offensive production catches up to his defense a bit, as it should. As much as I love Moe Wagner, Teske's two-way ability gives him the potential to have the most impactful season by a Michigan center in quite some time.

#23 Brandon Johns

​back at his natural position [Campredon]

Year: Sophomore
Height/Weight: 6'8"/235
Key Counting Stats: 28 games, 4.2 MPG, 22 points (8/15 2P, 1/3 3P, 3/4 FT), 29 rebounds (9 offensive), 1 assist, 2 turnovers, 5 steals, 3 blocks

Johns had an unusually rocky freshman transition for a 6'8" four-star and it was almost entirely not his fault. Given the circumstances, which involved Beilein playing Johns at center for much of the year to attempt to plug the hole behind Teske, here's the main thing we learned about him last year: he's not a center. Johns had a brief breakout against Indiana, a team lacking a true center at that point, before the experiment thankfully ended and he joined most of his fellow freshmen on the mop-up crew.

Now Johns is not only back at his natural position of power forward, he has a coach who may be better-suited to getting the most out of him; I always felt the East Lansing native was more of an Izzo-style four than a Beilein-ball four, not that you can't get away with playing one in the other's system.

That isn't to say he lacks skill. Johns showed outside shooting ability in high school and looked comfortable hitting two of three three-pointers in the exhibition. It's just that he's also a burly 6'8" with high school film that also features a bunch of tip-slams. An offense that gets him hanging around the hoop more often should play to his benefit. He should also be a plus finisher in transition, and this team is going to run a lot more than they did under Beilein. It looked on Friday like he can attack closeouts off the dribble:

He'll probably be a better weakside shot-blocker than on-ball defender at this stage in his development. He may even have enough versatility to play occasional minutes at the three in some massive lineups if Howard wants to get weird. With his size and athleticism, he should at least be a passable defender; hopefully he'll at least be a responsible rebounder who doesn't jump for too many out-of-area blocks.

He's mostly a mystery at this point. He could emerge as the starting power forward, and given his performance relative to that of Adrien Nunez's on Friday I'm inclined to believe that'll happen before Franz Wagner returns from his wrist injury. He could be a solid tertiary option in that role. He could also look like he's a lost freshman all over again after a year going between positions and then changing coaches. I'm leaning towards the former; the answer could determine this team's fate.

#11 Colin Castleton

arms [Ben Ludeman]

Year: Sophomore
Height/Weight: 6'11"/235
Key Counting Stats: 19 games, 3.4 MPG, 8 points (9/19 2P, 0/3 3P, 3/9 FT)

Castleton eventually got a look at center last year despite being rail-thin, and while he didn't stick in the rotation as Beilein chose Livers-centered small ball, he had moments of great promise. While very much a stick figure in a basketball uniform, he did some big man stuff quite well already; he made an impact as an offensive rebounder and shot-blocker. After a full year in the strength and conditioning program, with an emphasis on the strength, he appears ready for a much larger role this year.

That role could be as the primary backup at two different positions. Castleton is locked in as Teske's backup; he passed Austin Davis on the center depth chart last year while at a much earlier point in his development curve. He could also be a major contributor at power forward. That was a possibility even under Beilein, as Castleton came to Michigan with a profile of Moe-Wagner-with-blocks. This is how he thought of himself when he committed:

Colin Castleton is 6-11, 215 pounds. I asked him what position he'll play at Michigan ... pic.twitter.com/OgzqrjXdss

— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) October 4, 2017

He wasn't tooting his own horn. MGoContributor Matt D. saw similar potential when evaluating Castleton as a commit:

Colin Castleton (#138) – ranked him conservatively based on limited live evaluation. Gut tells me he’s more likely in the 90-100 range. elite rim protector/shotblocker that is a good rebounder as well. Offensively he has good touch around the basket and a nice shot from the midrange area. Shows some flashes of back to the basket game with jumphooks over both shoulders but more of face-up post player at this point. Good passer from the high-post area. Not an explosive athlete but is fluid with good size and length. Projects as a rim-protecting center that will score on dumpoffs, putbacks, rolls and midrange jumpshots. Low floor, high ceiling prospect that will likely need a year to add muscle mass and improve reaction time before being a heavy contributor.

Castleton proceeded to show three-point range on his senior tape. He has a lot of potential as a pick-and-pop big, high-post passer, and interior defender; that skill set is intriguing at center and becomes really intriguing if he can stay in front of opposing fours. Seeing Teske awaiting in the paint is terrifying enough; having Castleton swooping in from the weak side to help him serves as a big ol' STOP sign. Remember, Castleton put up a higher block rate in AAU ball than Bol Bol.

He's also got a true post game, though one he's still trying to rein in. He hit two textbook drop steps against SVSU; he missed off the first one but finished the second:

While mostly playing center, Castleton got a few minutes alongside Teske in the exhibition. Howard may have to keep that grouping mostly under wraps until Wagner returns and Livers can provide some more minutes at the four; I expect it'll at least be a well-used situational lineup by season's end, and it wouldn't even shock me if they eventually became the starting frontcourt pairing.

It's more likely Castleton is an important sub at both frontcourt spots while waiting for next season to fully break out, but I'm betting he hits on his potential sooner or later, and we should see plenty of flashes this year.

#51 Austin Davis

​hoping to burl his way onto the floor [Campredon]

Year: Senior
Height/Weight: 6'10"/250
Key Counting Stats: 25 games, 3.7 MPG, 25 points (12/19 2P, 1/3 FT), 19 rebounds (7 offensive), 1 block

Davis is the emergency big man at this point. He couldn't crack a rotation spot in his first three years on campus; even with Davis available, the coaches explored every other available option on the roster, even the ill-fated Brandon Johns experiment. The writing is on the wall: despite taking a redshirt year, he's listed as a senior in his fourth year on campus.

Davis could prove useful if Michigan needs to save the starters's legs in a blowout or use some fouls against a poor-shooting big man. He's looked in over his head against Big Ten competition, though, and the on/off numbers back that up. He didn't play until garbage time against SVSU. He does represent a strange sort of luxury for recent Michigan teams: a center-sized third center, which was only the case under Beilein in the brief bit of time Morgan/McGary/Horford were all healthy and available. You never know when you might need another big body.

#44 Jaron Faulds

Year: Junior
Height/Weight: 6'10"/240
Key Counting Stats (Columbia 2017-18): 26 games, 14.2 MPG, 4.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.0 BPG

Faulds is a Holt native who transferred away from a scholarship at Columbia after playing 14 minutes per game as a freshman to be a preferred walk-on for the home team. I was curious to see if he'd get a bit role at center, but he lined up at power forward in the open practice, didn't see the court until walk-on time against SVSU, and got no mention in secret scrimmage reports I read. That said, another big body—especially a D-I scholarship player who's not using a scholarship—certainly doesn't hurt.

Outlook

I'm bullish on this group, particularly if you include the minutes Isaiah Livers will play at power forward, which I'm taking into account. (That approach also explains why the wings grade was a little lower than you may have expected.)

Teske may be overshadowed by more offensive-minded centers like Ohio State Kaleb Wesson, but there's a decent chance he's truly the best center in the conference, or at least right there with Xavier Tillman. He's the best defensive center the program has had in longer than I care to think and there's a chance a decent chunk of the offense not just finishes with him, but runs through him. Maybe he'll even put up big enough numbers to prevent the box-score-readers from screwing up the postseason awards.

Castleton is a quality backup at one, and potentially two, positions, and if he can't hack it at power forward against certain opponents then Michigan can use Livers in those situations. His upside is vast, and while he's very unlikely to get there this year, a sophomore leap should make him a valuable and versatile piece.

Brandon Johns is the team X-factor. I'm guardedly encouraged after Friday. If he becomes a decent rotation player, Michigan can unleash Livers at the three and play some overwhelmingly large lineups, especially once Wagner comes back. (I'm sorry for typing some version of that clause 286 times this past week.) If he disappoints, Michigan can paper over that spot with Livers once... well, you know.

Grade: 4.5/5