Michigan's Post Defense: A Thorough, Ugly Examination
M's best post defender? It's, uh, in the eye of the beholder. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
After Wednesday night's Virginia Tech game, I sat in on John Beilein's postgame presser, attempting to fill out my game recap by transcribing quotes as Beilein talked. I stopped dead, however, at this quote, because I had just watched the same game and came away with a very different take:
“Scoring points wasn’t as big as trying to stop them. Right now, Mark [Donnal]’s a better defender. In defense of Moe [Wagner], Moe’s been sick all day, didn’t feel good. He was doing alright taking the ball to the basket."
What follows is a more thorough examination of Michigan's post defense against Virginia Tech than is necessary or easily digestible, but I spent an entire day compiling these numbers and video clips, so you will read this and like it*, dammit.
*you will probably not like it, sorry.
I began by looking at the points per possession numbers on both ends of the court with each center on the floor. The results:
MOE WAGNER:
OFFENSE TOTAL: 28 poss, 30 pts (1.07 PPP)
DEFENSE TOTAL: 27 poss, 29 pts (1.07 PPP)
MARK DONNAL:
OFFENSE TOTAL: 28 poss, 33 pts (1.18 PPP)
DEFENSE TOTAL: 27 poss, 36 pts (1.33 PPP)
JON TESKE:
OFFENSE TOTAL: 7 poss, 7 pts (1.00 PPP)
DEFENSE TOTAL: 7 poss, 6 pts (0.86 PPP)
DJ Wilson had two defensive possessions at center: a post stop and two free throws allowed after one of his fouls going for an offensive rebound.
While small sample size caveats abound, this matched the eye test both from this game and this season. The defensive numbers stood up to further scrutiny; the offensive numbers, which surprised me, did not. Non-Donnal Wolverines shot 6-for-13 on three-pointers when he was on the floor; Donnal added a three-point miss himself and didn't assist any of the six makes. Michigan made only 3-of-10 threes when Wagner was out there, and he assisted one of the makes. There wasn't a difference in the quality of the attempts; if M had shot 30% from three with Donnal on the floor like they did with Wagner, Donnal's offensive PPP in this game would've been 0.96.
[Hit THE JUMP for video and analysis, if you dare.]
I went back over the game and clipped every relevant defensive possession for Donnal and Wagner. Neither did very well on that end, but I thought Wagner had a clear edge. Here's Donnal:
Here's Wagner:
Yuck. Some takeaways:
There's a big difference in volume. The videos are somewhat misleading because they don't show the possessions where the ball didn't make it into the post. Wagner did a much better job of denying post position and keeping the ball out of the paint, and VT didn't appear too interested in attacking him down low. In stark contrast, Donnal spent much of his evening trying to fend off post possessions, and the Hokies went after him again and again when he was on the court.
The clip at 1:11 of Donnal's video, when he commits a shooting foul after allowing a baseline drive, came on his one-possession cameo in the second half when Beilein pulled Wagner to make a coaching point. VT immediately cleared out, keeping four players outside the arc, and posted up Donnal. This was a running theme when he checked into the game.
Both struggle on the perimeter. Donnal is simply slow-footed, so when he gets switched onto a non-big he's usually dead in the water. Wagner is more capable of sticking with guards, but he occasionally gets caught out of position. Wagner at least had one nice play when he switched onto a guard off a screen and stripped the ball away for a steal (1:17 mark).
Wagner is much better at maintaining rebounding position. The play with this screencap wasn't even included in Donnal's video because the VT shot went in, but on more than one occasion he got completely boxed out by the man he was supposed to be defending:
This also happens in the clip that starts at 0:46 but Derrick Walton bails him out. The very next clip is a VT and-one when Donnal loses his boxout position, gives up the rebound, and then doesn't foul nearly hard enough to prevent the putback.
Both need more help. I thought Wagner played an excellent possession on the clip starting at 0:55. He helps prevent a drive off a high screen, deflects a pass, and then makes a layup all but impossible when VT resets and runs another pick-and-roll. Wagner has to commit to the driver and leave the center; Duncan Robinson doesn't recognize this, hangs out in no-man's land, and doesn't rotate to prevent the pass to the center, who gets a free dunk.
In a similar vein, Donnal fronts his man on the possession at the 1:34 mark, and while I don't think he was correct in staying in that position once the ball goes to the wing, it doesn't help at all that Zak Irvin lets his man blow by him in an instant. Donnal should be in better position to help, but he doesn't get much time to get into that position because of M's perimeter defense.
What about Jon Teske? This was the best defensive possession by a Michigan center all night, and it came from the freshman ent:
His size is a major asset and he seems to be figuring things out quickly. As I'm writing up this post, Beilein is holding a presser, and I think he's seeing the same thing:
Beilein on Teske: He can really shoot the ball. We have to really find minutes for him. Picks things up really quickly.
— Brandon Carney (@br_carney) December 2, 2016
I want to bet that Teske passes Donnal before the season is out but I've mostly given up on figuring out why Beilein handles his big men the way he does. At least he softened his stance on Wagner's defense this afternoon:
Beilein says the gab between Wagner's offensive abilities and defensive liabilities is closing. "It's a good sign. I'm certain of that."
— Brandon Carney (@br_carney) December 2, 2016
I'd like to see Wagner get a longer leash. Beilein essentially ceded two points to VT by pulling Wagner for a possession to make a coaching point; while those are important, I'm not sure they have to be made the instant an issue arises during a game, especially if said game is close. I don't agree with Beilein that Donnal is the superior defender—quite the opposite, in fact—and Wagner is far and away the better option on the other end of the floor.
I'd also be pleased if Teske starts eating into Donnal's minutes. It's too early to be as definitive in this statement—Beilein has seen much, much more of Teske than any of us—but what he's shown so far has been quite promising. Teske has a nice shooting stroke with range that at least allows him to have a reliable midrange game. He looks like he could make a huge impact on the offensive glass. He batted around a rebound chance that ended up going out of bounds off VT to salvage an unlikely second chance in his first-half stint. He was credited with an offensive board when he successfully boxed out VT's center...
...and drew an obvious foul as a result. He's still figuring out the system on both ends, but when it clicks—and that seems to be happening ahead of schedule—he's going to be a real asset in a way I don't think Donnal is capable.
December 2nd, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^
December 2nd, 2016 at 2:46 PM ^
Wagner: 4.1 fouls/40 minutes
Donnal: 3.9 fouls/40 minutes
Meanwhile, Wagner has a 15.9 to 10.5 edge in defensive rebound rate and doubles Donnal's block and steal rates (4.6 to 2.3 and 2.6 to 1.3, respectively).
The only real edges Donnal has over Wagner statistically right now are offensive rebounds and turnovers, and I find it very hard to argue that Donnal is the more effective offensive player despite those stats.
December 2nd, 2016 at 5:35 PM ^
i have to believe donnal leads the team in taking charges. perhaps that is what JB is noticing. taking a charge is still huge.
that said, both guys are subpar defensively and Wilson's minutes this last game is what lost it. if he plays 20+ min, i think UM wins easily.
December 3rd, 2016 at 12:59 AM ^
Donnal is shooting 0.870 at the free throw line to Wagner's 0.647. Donnal is 2nd on the team in FTA. Getting the other team's bigs in foul trouble makes life easier in end of game situations. The FT% and FTA distinction is minor, but it's not insignificant.
When both guys are averaging less than 1 spg and 1 bpg, the "double" rate that Moe has is inconsequential.
Say what you will about the bigs, if MAAR and Zak don't improve their three point percentages, this team is going nowhere.
December 2nd, 2016 at 2:45 PM ^
Good post defense relies on ball pressure, too. Post entry passes can be made more difficult if the ball pressue is effective. Combination of post D players not "allowing" the O player great post position and effective ball pressure on wings/entry passer is a good combo.
Mo, even with a high foul rate, needs to be able to play through mistakes. M has a senior that is allowed to make a crapload of them while still getting 20 shots a night. /hyperbole.
Good write up.
December 2nd, 2016 at 3:32 PM ^
Solid post, Ace. I left the game with a feeling that Wagner should be getting way more minutes, but it's nice to back it up with some analytic data. The season is quite long, and I just see way more upside for using Wagner for 27 and Donnal for 13 rather than the current split. I agree that Teske could even start to cut into those minutes, and I remember that possession that you screen grabbed for this content. He moved his feet well, bodied up, and contested. Before the small ball revolution I think Donnal could have been a fine four. At this point, I'm not quite sure what Coach B is seeing that I'm not. It sure looks like Wagner deserves more minutes, and the numbers bear that thought out.
December 2nd, 2016 at 6:30 PM ^
December 2nd, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^
Zak Irvin has been a good player for Michigan for a few years. However, I agree that his leash is too long at times. Taking him out of the game more often would force some other guys into more foreful roles. You see this all the time with bench units in the NBA. I think the team would benefit overall, maybe not in the short term, but this season, from allowing other guys a chance to initiate more offense.
December 2nd, 2016 at 7:55 PM ^
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December 2nd, 2016 at 2:55 PM ^
Can't wait until he is gone. I'm sure he's a nice kid and all, but I can't stand watching him play.
I'm still not convinced the kid can jump over two nickels stacked on each other. So unathletic.
December 2nd, 2016 at 7:28 PM ^
December 2nd, 2016 at 7:53 PM ^
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December 2nd, 2016 at 2:58 PM ^
Beilein's (accurate in my view, esp if he actually can shoot) quote, "We have to really find minutes for him" is more reason why I'm annoyed by our game against Mt Saint Mary's: that's a team where there is no reason Zak Irvin should be playing 40 minutes. We should be seeing more of what Teske can, and can't, do.
If Ibi Watson is not ready, sub out Irvin and go with some combo of Wagner/Donnal/Teske for 5 or so minutes at the 4 and 5. Play zone (or whatever you have to do) on defense and then come up with an offense package that works the inside. Get creative. It might be choatic and messy, but I'm not the one who loaded the team with big men. You've got 'em, use 'em.
Also, unless something majorly changes, Wagner and Donnal should not split minutes -- instead of 18 and 18, it should be 20-22 Wagner and 14-16 Donnal (if not more, depending upon results). We need to win now and build for next year, and playing Wagner more (esp since Donnal's supposed 3-pt shooting prowess is not an in-game thing) is the way to do it.
December 2nd, 2016 at 4:35 PM ^
If you're Beilein and you lived through NJIT, you can't take anything for granted.
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December 2nd, 2016 at 4:57 PM ^
That way, if it is close, you have plenty of time to adjust. Additionally, that game was 33-16 in the first half.
It's a risk, but a small one. Teske brings something to the table (he was 1st team, All-Ohio) and can (I think) help the team this year. He's not going to get better unless he plays more (4-8 minutes a game instead of 0-4 minutes).
December 2nd, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
What I can't understand is that after 4 years of working with a strength and conditioning coach a player can have zero muscle definition. Virtually every play gets bigger and stronger. I don't like to criticize players but Mark just seems soft and uninterested. Maybe it is confidence?
December 2nd, 2016 at 3:41 PM ^
has the muscle definition of a banana.
December 2nd, 2016 at 6:44 PM ^
December 3rd, 2016 at 1:06 AM ^
December 2nd, 2016 at 3:18 PM ^
Mark Donnal looks majestic AF in that photo
December 2nd, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
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December 2nd, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^
December 2nd, 2016 at 3:37 PM ^
Look up!
December 2nd, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^
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December 2nd, 2016 at 5:49 PM ^
December 2nd, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^
They are what they are.
December 2nd, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^
better defender based on season to date, although it was a lot closer against VT. Some of that could just be that Donnal had a bad game or it could be that (hopefully) Wagner is getting better. I don't think you can make a fair or accurate case based on one game.
Having said that, I would love to see Wagner's minutes increase due to his offensive skill set. He can score from the outside as well as take his man off the dribble. We need his scoring. He could also improve his rebounding a lot.
I have been on the Teske bandwagon for a couple of weeks. He is way ahead of where I thought he would be at this point and I think he needs and deserves more playing time. He could easily be our number 2 center by the latter part of the season, or at least an equal #2. At 7'1", he presents a problem for the opposition and is a disruptive force.
December 2nd, 2016 at 6:30 PM ^
Donnal is better at help defense, Wagner is better at on the ball defense.
December 2nd, 2016 at 4:54 PM ^
Wager's possession at :47 is so inexcusable it blows my mind. Beilein mentioned it specifically in the post game, it just makes no sense. He is in good position on the line up the line to start but shows zero urgency to get back as the ball swings. He is totally out to lunch.
The possession at 1:09 is much the same thing. He switches from a hedge to an ICE ball screen coverage halfway through and allows penetration as a result. As the big, it is his responsibility to call out the screen and determine coverage.
That is the stuff that I'm sure drives Beilein crazy and makes it feel like he can't play him. If you kill all the X's and O's and preparation the coach puts together, JB can't just watch that happen. It's like a direct slap in the face to him personally regardless of PPP differences.
December 2nd, 2016 at 5:47 PM ^
December 2nd, 2016 at 5:26 PM ^
post-game, except--oddly--from Dylan himself. Leave Wagner in. Should have been left in. Let him learn on the floor.
Would love to also hear some takes on the philosophical/coaching differences between hunkering down for stops at the end of the game and continuing to emphasize running your offense. Seems to me that when you do the former, especially with a Beilein team, you run into the danger of going into a shell and getting very tight (see end of OSU/I mean VT game the other night).
Just to gloat a little re: Teske: told ya.
I
December 2nd, 2016 at 5:48 PM ^
haven't watched much basketball this year, but what I have watched hasn't made me change my opinion of Donnal. He is a terrible defender and he turns easy dunks into kick outs because he is soooo slow to go to the basket.
December 2nd, 2016 at 6:49 PM ^
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December 3rd, 2016 at 2:37 AM ^
at the title and the photograph.
December 3rd, 2016 at 2:48 AM ^
a lot of moments of accepting deep post position too, which is always a prescription for disaster.
And a lot of examples of being unacceptably soft.
Not every possession was bad, but if he continues to play like this, he should be strictly a role player who only plays if he shows a ferocity and a zest for contact when he gets into the game. I know we don't like to foul (boy did that not work out in that game), but you've got to play with some more intent than that. I was a bench player on a great team in HS and while it wasn't like I was trying to give them out, I considered those five fouls five opportunities to put the hurt on someone. Bench kamikaze - without being out of control, but giving without trying to pace yourself or being too careful is a role and it's the only role he's fit for. I played every second I got like it was my last because honestly, I was a bench player, who gave a fuck if I got in foul trouble or got tired?
December 3rd, 2016 at 9:02 AM ^
December 3rd, 2016 at 9:16 AM ^
At 0:46 might be an example for why Beilein doesn't play Wagner as much. Wagner starts by turning his head, and his man cuts behind him. He quickly realizes this, and finds his man again but there is no excuse for his positioning here. Maybe he thinks he should not be on his man to be ready to help in the lane, but the guy with the ball hasn't yet even made a move on Walton, so there is no need to help on the drive. The ball gets kicked to the corner and Wagner is left in no man's land. He isn't behind his man to protect the basket, and he isn't fronting his man to prevent any kind of pass. The ball gets passed quickly to his man and Wagner is way behind the play. Luckily his man doesn't see the baseline wide open and spin for a quick basket. Also, notice how Wilson has to come help because of Wagner's poor positioning. Luckily the guy with the ball can't kick the ball out because the VT player in the corner doesn't flare closer to the baseline. This allows Irvin to play the passing lanes of both his man and the guy in the corner. This forces the guy with the ball to put up a contested layup between 2 defenders. Notice how Wagner's initial poor positioning from the beginning of the possession causes him to be behind his man. No one else on Michigan can get back to help rebound quick enough because they all executed their defense properly while Wagner didn't. Wagner's poor positioning (again caused from earlier in the possession) compromised his teammates from being in position to help on the boards quick enough. The way the rebound bounced, Wagner would have had the best shot at the rebound if he had been between his man and the basket. Wilson had been taken out of the play because he had to help contest the initial shot. VT gets the offensive board, and once again Wagner can't effectively challenge the put back because he is behind his man. This is just one mistake from just one game, and Wagner will learn, but this possession indicates his current lack of awareness and understanding of certain defensive fundamentals. Again, he will get better, and I believe he should play more, but I understand why Beilein could be frustrated.
December 3rd, 2016 at 6:37 PM ^
What about the effect on other players? Are there different guards and wings who get more minutes alongside one or the other.
Mo might be doing a good job on his own man, but maybe Donnal's help defense opens up more matchup opportunities at the other positions?
December 4th, 2016 at 8:50 AM ^
From the video evidence, it appears that Donnal has the edge with technique, while Wagner has an edge in strength. Donnal seemed to give too much ground in the second half. Wagner just seems to go mentally blank sometimes. Maybe if Donnal had stayed to bulk up with Wagner through the summer...... maybe if Teske does so next summer.....sad, I'm already in "next year" mode. Overall, I'd say they are underachieving while exceeding expectations. I'm not sure what I mean. Still burned out from football.
December 4th, 2016 at 8:53 AM ^
I know it will never happen on a Beilein team, but would it be so wrong if we had one big man who just wanted to rebound, send your shot to the 5th row, and kiss your girlfriend while he dunked on you?
December 4th, 2016 at 8:53 AM ^
I know it will never happen on a Beilein team, but would it be so wrong if we had one big man who just wanted to rebound, send your shot to the 5th row, and kiss your girlfriend while he dunked on you?
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