Rahk At The Rim (Or Save Us, Caris)
This began as a post about Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and his ability to consistently get to the rim on his own, something Michigan as a team has been unable to do. That skill proved critical in last night's too-close-for-comfort victory at Minnesota.
While Rahkman had only a pair of two-pointers in the game, they stood out both for being timely and created entirely on his own. On arguably the most important play of the night—if it wasn't Rahkman's late chasedown steal—he drove baseline on Carlos Morris, used his shoulder as a means to create space without committing a foul (barely), and finished through contact for an and-one:
This is where this post takes an unfortunate turn. It's apparent to anyone who's watched Michigan this year that they've had a hard time beating defenders off the dribble and getting all the way to the basket. While looking up the numbers on Rahkman's ability to do just that, which I'll get to in a moment, I stumbled upon this alarming stat:
According to hoop-math, Michigan is 343rd out of 351 D-I teams in percentage of field goal attempts at the rim; M gets only 25.3% of their shots there, a far cry from the median of 36.1%. This isn't a be-all, end-all condemnation of the offense—Rutgers is 24th in the country in that category, while Purdue and Iowa both languish within ten spots of Michigan—but when combined with the individual stats and the eye test, it's easy to identify as one of the team's biggest issues.
I used data from hoop-math to put together this (chart?) chart, which shows MAAR's impressive ability to create high-percentage looks on his own as well as how badly this team needs LeVert back on the court:
# shots at rim | % shots at rim | FG% at rim | % assisted at rim | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Caris LeVert | 53 | 32.9% | 77.4% | 29.3% |
Mark Donnal | 47 | 46.1% | 78.7% | 91.9% |
Zak Irvin | 42 | 18.4% | 85.7% | 36.1% |
Ricky Doyle | 39 | 61.9% | 74.4% | 79.3% |
M-A Abdur-Rahkman | 37 | 29.8% | 78.4% | 20.7% |
Aubrey Dawkins | 30 | 22.9% | 76.7% | 82.6% |
Moe Wagner | 29 | 56.9% | 79.3% | 56.5% |
Derrick Walton | 25 | 14.0% | 56.0% | 14.3% |
Duncan Robinson | 15 | 7.7% | 93.3% | 57.1% |
The critical stat here is the final column, which shows how often a player needs help to get baskets at the tin. It's not a surprise that almost all of Mark Donnal's production at the hoop is on assisted baskets; he's far from a dominant post player and gets most of his looks off the pick-and-roll. Zak Irvin's efficiency is great, but few of his shots are coming at the rim; Derrick Walton's mark is even lower and he's struggling to finish. Aubrey Dawkins' layups and dunks usually require a teammate to find him on a cut or in transition. Duncan Robinson is expanding his game but is still mostly a shooter, and one that looks to pass more often than not when he ventures inside the arc.
The two players able to both get to the rim off the dribble and finish at a high rate are LeVert and Rahkman; Michigan has, of course, had only one of those players available for the vast majority of Big Ten play. The Wolverines need LeVert back on the court in the worst way; his return, though, shouldn't diminish Rahkman's role too much.
That's not solely because Rahkman is capable of beating defenders off the bounce and finishing. He's steadily improved the other facets of his game, as well. After shooting 29% from three as a freshman, he's at 38% this year, and a hair under 40% in Big Ten games; combine that conference mark with 60% shooting on twos and he's fifth in the conference in eFG%. Rahkman has also drawn a lot more fouls—16th in the B1G in FT Rate—and he's making 77% of his free throws. He rarely turns the ball over. Even though he's still not a particularly willing passer, he ranks fifth in the conference in ORating—a very impressive mark even though it's helped by a low usage rate. Though this is admittedly faint praise, he's also arguably the team's best perimeter defender.
Rahkman has proven to be a reliable option when the offense is bogged down in the halfcourt, especially when Michigan needs a bucket late in the shot clock. A healthy LeVert is critical for this team to survive a tough final stretch with enough wins to make the tourney. Rahk has been an overlooked reason why Michigan is even in position to make it, though, and he'll play a crucial role the rest of the way.
February 11th, 2016 at 2:09 PM ^
did not have one offer from any other P5 team (bravo Rutgers and Penn State) I'd say he's done just fine for the good guys.
February 11th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^
Purdue being down there is nuts considering their front line is made of Ents.
February 11th, 2016 at 2:36 PM ^
February 11th, 2016 at 2:46 PM ^
...as "at-the-rim" attempts. Those only include dunk and layup attempts, essentially.
February 11th, 2016 at 4:27 PM ^
That stat made no sense as described. One would logically think that ALL shots would be at the rim. Where else are you gonna aim??
February 11th, 2016 at 11:03 PM ^
it does make sense for them since they do take so many 5 footers and their post guys replace much of a backdoor cut or dribble drive game for them. Great analysis on MAAR, Ace.
It seems like Irvin is highly effective at the rim (without needing an assist) as well as Caris and MAAR, and he's not THAT far behind in % of shots taken at the rim. I'm actually surprised that % is so low since it seems like he has been taking to the rim a lot more since Caris has been out. I wonder if that % is much higher in B1G play.
February 11th, 2016 at 2:32 PM ^
Caris leading the team in at-the-rim attempts is unbelievably depressing.
February 11th, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^
But honestly, I think losing Spike on the floor hurts worse than losing Caris in some ways.
Spike is not as talented as Caris, but his heart and his leadership, the overall boost he brings with his energy, plus his ability to just make plays happen is so missed right now. If we had him healthy on the floor our season would look remarkably different.
February 11th, 2016 at 11:16 PM ^
miss heart and leadership on this team, and Spike brings that in spades. While he isn't quick or long enough to be good at individual defense, he hustles and plays hard and that could rub off on everyone else who's playing uninspired defense, which is really the problem here (173rd in the country!!!!).
February 11th, 2016 at 2:42 PM ^
The fact that he still is our top scorer at the rim this point in the season is a shock. Anyone watching would understand that Caris is our best player at creating his own shot but he has missed way too many games to still lead the team in this category.
My biggest question is how much will Caris help on D? They have now fallen to a Ken Pom 170 ranking on D. It is hard enough to be in the 80-90 range and try to just outscore other teams over and over. They have had teams that figured out how to do it. However, once a team is close to a 200 ranking it becomes an obstacle that is entirely too difficult to overcome.
With Caris our D was ranked a lot higher, but I don't know how much of that was attributed to the non-conference schedule and how much was actually his defensive skills. My guess is that Caris is a lot better at defense than he gets credit for. He can't neutralize man-beasts at the 5 but he can do a ton against everyone else.
Help us Caris, you are our only hope.
February 11th, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
LeVert isn't exactly a shutdown defender, but he does help us in a few ways. At 6'6" and with a long reach, he can disrupt passing lanes much more than Walton or MAAR can. He's very good at the top of the 1-3-1. Also, he's a solid rebounder (though Walton certainly is superb in that area).
But the biggest thing might be that just having him around gives us the depth to allow everyone to play a more reasonable amount of minutes, and can allow players to compete a little harder defensively as foul trouble becomes less of a concern. With him out, Walton/MAAR have been logging 35+ minutes per game, as to do otherwise would mean playing Dakich significant minutes. They have go a long time on the court with little rest and have to be very careful defensively to avoid picking up cheap fouls. That's a recipe for shaky perimeter D.
February 11th, 2016 at 11:57 PM ^
February 12th, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
February 11th, 2016 at 11:39 PM ^
and remember that kenpom is adjusted based on SOS so our high defensive ranking early on accounted for the fact that we were playing bad teams already. We were still performing decently compared to other teams. I think after the PSU game we were around 70th or 80th overall in defense and had held six opponents in a row to less than 1 ppp.
I think Caris had something to do with the drop, partially because he is a solid, long defender and he allowed the rest of the guards to stay more fresh. Another factor is the drop coincided with Donnal playing far more minutes. He's been playing pretty well offensively, but he's awful at defense, probably quite a bit worse than Doyle and that seems to be hurting. Between Robinson and Donnal, we have some huge defensive liabilities out there, and Dawkins is even worse for 15 min a game.
So I don't think Caris is going to bring us back to a not horrible defense if the big man rotation remains the way it is (which it should because Donnal is still better than Doyle overall if Doyle is going to turn it over more than 20% of his possessions).
February 11th, 2016 at 2:56 PM ^
To operate optimally Coach B's system needs a 5 who can hit the 18 ft. jumper at the top of the key.We haven't found that guy yet (maybe D.J.Wilson eventually?) Having that guy opens up the lanes for drives to the rim.Also I have to compliment Walton for upping his game during Caris absence.
February 11th, 2016 at 2:59 PM ^
IMO, DJ Wilson is a 4 that wants to play like a 3. I'd be shocked if he ever becomes that guy.
February 11th, 2016 at 11:55 PM ^
It's not the case that the system needs a 5 that can do that. We've never before this season had a 5 that can do that and Beilein's best offense (ever, not just at M) was when Jordan Morgan played most of the miuntes at 5. He couldn't hit a 10-footer. Donnal is, in fact, the best outside shooter we've ever had at the 5, the only one who's ever been a threat to hit a shot outside of 15 feet. That's not at all the problem. We don't even want anyone shooting 18 footers anyway. Worst shot in the game.
The problem (the few times our 14th in the nation offense bogs down) is that we have no healthy slashers with Caris and Spike out. Walton isn't that guy and MAAR and Irvin have stepped up decently, but not aren't world beaters at doing it.
February 12th, 2016 at 9:19 AM ^
We had the #1-ranked offense nationally in 2013 and 2014 without a jump-shooting 5. It can be helpful, for sure, but isn't essential. Having an effective pick-and-roll combo can easily make up for it.
February 11th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^
Surprised that Irvin is shooting such a high percentage at the rim - it seems like he's had some trouble finishing lately.
February 11th, 2016 at 3:02 PM ^
"Though this is admittedly faint praise..."
Should be the title of the article.
He made two shots yesterday against the worst team in the league.
February 11th, 2016 at 3:07 PM ^
There are also the statistics in the entire rest of the post, which used that as a jumping-off point. Here's another one: in the first matchup against Saturday's very good opponent, Purdue, he went 8/11 on two-pointers. This was far from a one-game fluke against a bad team.
I understand the pessimism surrounding the basketball team right now, but lazy, knee-jerk comments like this aren't helping anything.
February 11th, 2016 at 5:37 PM ^
You have to admit, Zak has been pretty inconsistent...can you explain this? Especially when we need him to be just the opposite...
February 11th, 2016 at 11:46 PM ^
February 12th, 2016 at 7:26 AM ^
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February 11th, 2016 at 3:13 PM ^
Lots to digest here, very interesting.
First off, something is wrong with this stat. How are Purdue and Iowa, with two of the best front-courts in the conference, so low in that stat? Their front lines are constantly scoring in the paint, getting offensive boards, etc. Maybe this stat should be changed from "at the rim" to "in the paint." Not sure what's wrong with it.
Secondly, I think there's no coincidence that Rahk has had some of his best games against our best opponents. When you play against a talented team who is good at defense, they can shut down a lot of the offense we like to run. Walton and Irvin especially have had trouble in those games and Robinson this year too. Yet Rahk has had great games. Why? Because he can take his man 1-on-1 and doesn't need to score within the flow of the offense. Caris is like that too and thus I agree with your conclusion.
However, as much as we need what Caris has to offer, let's be realistic about what he will/won't help with. He's not a good on-ball defender, even if people think he should be. Rahk and Walton are both better....which isn't saying much. However, Levert is great in a zone defense. I would love to see him at the top of a 1-3-1 with Irvin/Robinson on the wings and Rahk at the bottom. On offense, he's a great iso player who can kill a drought by getting his own shot (hence this post). But he's never been a good ball-screen player and tends to shoot 90% of the time he drives rather than pass.
The BIGGEST help Caris can provide is depth. We're down to 7 men in the rotation and only two ball-handlers. Maybe Rahk and Walton are struggling on D because they have to play the whole game! (This is also where Spike's absence hurts....not to mention that he is the emotional leader.)
February 11th, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^
He has to be Michigan's most underrated player. I love his offensive game because he can score from almost anywhere. He can drive to the basket really well and has a lot of speed. He and Dawkins have turned into the stars of that recruiting class despite being the lowest rated ones.
February 11th, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^
.... that we are at the bottom of the pack in terms of at-the-rim attempts. Its pretty obvious how this impacts the offense - easy buckets, drawing help defenders, opening up outside shooters, etc. What people miss is how much this impacts defense. Long shots = long rebounds = transition defense. Beilein commented on this (sorta) last night saying that creating easy buckets off the pick and roll is not a strength of Walton's and they are actively working to make it a strength. Getting a few open looks at the rim can change the entire dynamic of a game, I hope they get it fixed!
February 11th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^
Are blocked shots exluded from # of shots at the rim? I could see that adding 10-20 attempts for Irvin if blocked attempts are included.
February 11th, 2016 at 4:19 PM ^
The thing with MAAR and rim attempts is that I think he's great at getting there and creating his own shot, but he's terrible at getting into the paint and passing the ball, which really limits easy rim attempts for guys like Donnal/Doyle.
February 11th, 2016 at 4:23 PM ^
Rahk is tough ball player. Love his development. I would like to see Rahk stay in the line-up upon LeVert's return and send Mark to bench. I know this makes team small but you can use this to an advantage. It's weird to me a basketball player can't consistently threaten the rim on a drive. Every player especially ball handlers should be able to this consistently. And with the Wolverines and there smallish line-up they should be able to make this happen again and again. Just don't drink and drive.
February 11th, 2016 at 4:30 PM ^
It says a lot that one of Michigan's crucial players down the stretch is a guard who's averaging 6.8 points and 1.4 assists per game. I like Rahk. I appreciate Rahk. But you've just got to have more production at some point from your key guys.
February 11th, 2016 at 5:05 PM ^
Sigh....what of next year?
February 11th, 2016 at 5:26 PM ^
Dr Rahklove or How I learned to quit pining after Caris and love the Rahk
Thanks for the dual title now all I have in my head are quotes from Peter Sellers movies.....
February 11th, 2016 at 5:41 PM ^
A tad better than this year but that is it and that is a pretty good year I think. Definitley not a 25-5 team but close to it, 8/9 losses or so? Maybe we'll make it to the sweet 16 or elite eight if we're lucky. I cannot image Zak and Walton playing poorly next year as seniors and with the entire same team except Caris and Spike. Plus they have already had a big amount of experience without Caris last year and this year. I also think Donnal and Doyle will be a good two-headed monster up front. I still doubt our D will be great but I think within the top 100 and our offense will be around what it is right now. Rahk will be solid and so will Dawkins. Experience will finally be on our side for once next year.
February 11th, 2016 at 5:56 PM ^
If there's anybody on this team who needs to get to the hole more is Aubrey Dawkins. His athleticism is being wasted by just hanging at the perimeter.
February 11th, 2016 at 6:55 PM ^
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February 11th, 2016 at 6:47 PM ^
That JB has put a bug in RAAK's ear to be more agressive, not only in getting to the rim, but firing an open shot. No surprise, they need him to do that.
What's a bit surprising is he is starting to deliver on a consistent basis. He's always been a great finisher; now that he's knocking down open shots, he'll have a lot of opportunity to keep driving.
Next step is finding open post ups and cutters.
February 11th, 2016 at 7:59 PM ^
When Levert is on the floor he draws alot of attention. This has to free up Robinson doesnt it? Is Robinsons decline from the perimeter due more to Leverts absence or a tougher schedule?
I think we miss Spike as much as we miss Caris. If both these guys had played the entire year I doubt we have any discussions on Beileins status.
February 11th, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^
Take last night's game. We got several open 3s (for Robinson and others) on run-outs after Minnesota misses. This was a result not only of Minnesota missing but also being disorganized getting back on D. We got a lot of those in nonconference play too when we were playing low majors, and it made our offense look much more formidable than it is.
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February 11th, 2016 at 9:17 PM ^
February 12th, 2016 at 9:57 PM ^
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