Michigan Opens as 3.5 Road Dog at Utah
Commence chest beating, talks of "betting the mortgage", "easy money", and general over analyzing. One of the few shreds of football stuff until August!
Personally think that is pretty generous - the home team usually gets 3 pts so it's basically saying the teams are a wash on a neutral field. Based on the last meeting in the Big House, that's already a big improvement! I was thinking it would be more like 5.5 pts but UM is obviously a name team that gets a lot of money thrown at it. Whittingham has lost some staff from last year but Utah is generally a very sound team full of well coached 3 star mafia and quite tough at home - beat Rose Bowl Stanford even in a down year (2013).
Other fun lines - Minnesota is a 19.5 home dog vs TCU in their rematch from last year - TCU should be ranked top 3 in most polls going into the year. Wisconsin is a 12.5 home dog v Alabama - wait did no one watch the Big 10 domination of the bowl season? Notre Dame is favored by 12.5 at home v Texas. OSU is a whopping 20.5 favorite on the road vs VATech - man that's a lot of points in the first game of the year, on the road, vs a team that usually presents a good defense. Seems like best bet to take the points.
Their lines on both sides of the ball collapsed in the second half of this year's Citrus Bowl. There's no reason to think TCU's lines aren't as good, if not better, than Mizzou's.
Additionally, Mizzou's team speed was significantly faster than Minny's. Minny's backs could not get outside the DEs and Missouri's backs left their secondary behind like they were standing still.
Coming from the arena-ball Big-12, it's reasonable to assume TCU's offensive speed will be even more of a problem for the Gophers. Minny won't have the benefit of hosting them when it's cold either. That spread looks about right to me.
I was looking at our class vs a few others (2012 class) to compare how players are doing a few weeks ago, and by chance I looked at Minnesota's 2012 class just to see what they had to work with and it is pretty amazing what Kill has done. It's a tough as hell team lacking elite athletes - they did not have a single 4 star in that entire class and they thoroughly dismantled us. Just made me sigh - again.
April 28th, 2015 at 11:10 PM ^
April 28th, 2015 at 11:22 PM ^
have left? I assumed they were down to Joseph Smith and Mitt Romney at this point.
April 28th, 2015 at 11:48 PM ^
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April 28th, 2015 at 11:55 PM ^
April 28th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^
April 29th, 2015 at 12:11 AM ^
The sap flows and the prognosticators need to predict something. We'll do fine. In Harbaugh I trust. Darned Mormons and the missionary position. We'll show them this Fall.
April 29th, 2015 at 12:22 AM ^
I wonder if the elevation out there will be a factor...? I'm sure the coaches will prepare accordingly.
April 29th, 2015 at 12:33 AM ^
It's April.
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UM wins by double digits.
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I'm not saying they're going to blow them out by 20-30+ points but I do think 10-14 points is entirely possible.
I thought we could have won last year too. The defense did a good job holding them to 26 and under 300 yards of offense, it's just the offense was pathetic and couldn't score TDs.
I think UM has a better roster and the defense will be better this year. Last year this team lost to teams with inferior talent, that will change. If they produce anything resembling a functioning offense by Sept. 3, I like our chances.
I think Harbaugh is a better coach and I think the assistants are better. I also feel that he'll have this team whipped into a frenzy and frothing at the mouth to make a statement.
Am I a homer, yes, but I think UM wins.
Yep. The defense played well last year. The offense did nothing and a huge special teams blunder did us in. Did anyone come away from that game thinking, "Wow, Utah has a lot more talent than we do." I didn't. I felt like they were the much better coached team, though.
Our special teams are in much better hands this time around. That's worth a TD difference from last year all by itself. I agree that if we have any semblance of an offense - specifically a functional QB - we'll win.
We have stability at QB. If anyone beats out Rudock that means they beat out a 16:5 TD:INT guy. With Rudock's addition I really don't care who's QB anymore, because he's the floor.
O-line and WR are the big question marks. The O-line has to go through another transition, TE is desperate for candidates and our WRs as yet have shown no playmaking ability. If the line can't block and the receivers can't catch then it really won't matter who's the QB or what plays they run.
Harbaugh was hired for the long haul and that entails growing pains that I doubt will be worked out of the system by September. That's not a strike on him by any means; it's just not enough time to overhaul an offense. It's why RichRod got 3 years, Borges got 3 and Nuss wasn't able to do much with one.
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Lemme guess, you're spotting them a FG only because our coach isn't Mike Ditka.
Oh wait, Harbaugh actually said he's Mike Ditka. Bears by 800.
April 29th, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^
view that UM will win this game, and look good doing so. Utah is a solid program, but UM will be well coached, motivated, and does have superior talent. I like that combination.
April 29th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
The other day I watched the Utah spring game on the Pac-12 cable channel and wow, they looked very hungry, very impressive. They return nine starters on defense, including three really good senior LBs. Across the board, they start a lot of upperclassmen this year. Coach Whittingham was amped up, micro-managing everyone in a way that very much reminds me of Jim Harbaugh. The network was interviewing players who all had a high level of confidence that this year was going to be special. We're gonna face a very experienced team in their house, with all the media hype of Harbaugh being back in the college game...they will be ready. Our offense better be 110% better than what they showed in the spring game or this could be a very low scoring game, and if so, Utah will win ugly.
did Utah have a draft for teams ? or could it been the #1 offense vs #1 defense ... or maybe #1 offense vs #2 defense .... or ... whatever. The coach can pick it anyway he wants. Don't go overboard based on a spring game.
Michigan has better talent overall & I'm willing to state that we also have a better head coach. I fully expect Michigan to be compettitive in EVERY game this season. Doesn't mean we'll win them all ... but if we do win some early close games, and build some confidence in these kids, Michigan will be a factor in the B1G season this year.
Go Blue!
April 29th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
are fun to talk about but mean about as much as weather reports for AA next Nov 28th. Bucky will be overrated for every game and M underrated until proven otherwise and I would bet money that perceptions of both teams will change after the first weekend of play.
April 29th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
"did no one watch the Big 10 domination of the bowl season?"
We also watched OSU beat Wiscy 59-0. Alabama did much better against the Buckeyes. Just sayin'.
As for UM-Yutes, it's the exact same factors as last time. Defense should hold up, but the offense is a huge question mark -- can they learn the Harbaugh/Drevno/Fisch system fast enough to score TDs in the opener? This is too wide open of a question for me to dare a prediction, which is why I think the spread is so narrow. This is exactly the sort of game to lose your shirt.
just don't lose your new MGoShirt from the Kickstarter....
I was shocked at this line, they beat us by 16 at our own place last year and return 18/24 starters. I thought I saw it was 6.5 a week ago and I thought that was too low.
I was shocked at this line, they beat us by 16 at our own place last year and return 18/24 starters. I thought I saw it was 6.5 a week ago and I thought that was too low.
50 dollars on Virginia Tech, please.
Utah Offense:
- OC Dave Christensen (DC) is gone and is now O-line coach at A&M. He was almost uniformly reviled by players and coaches with reports that QB Travis Wilson and WR Kenneth Scott would have transferred had he stayed and RB Devontae Booker would have declared for the draft. His contract was not going to be renewed by Utah. DC's O-line coach remains as run game coordinator and QB coach/former Utah OC Aaron Roderick (2009-2010) remains as pass game coordinator. Dennis Erickson remains as RB coach/assistant head coach.
- RB: Devontae Booker played a backup role versus Michigan in 2014 with 11 carries. He went on to become the feature back in 2014 and earned first team all conference honors. He is the best player on Utah's offense, and is a player that Michigan didn't see much of last time.
- O-line: Utah's best offensive lineman declared early for the draft leaving left tackle as a big question mark.
- WR: Utah loses both of its deep ball/big play threats at WR. After LT, this is the biggest question mark on Utah's offense.
- QB: Travis Wilson returns. Kendall Thompson saw limited time versus Michigan and did not play well. He will challenge for the starting job and could bring a little more of a running threat to the QB position if he wins.
Utah Defense
- DC: Kalani Sitake leaves for Oregon State. This is a big loss for Utah on the recruiting front, but not so much on the coaching front. Whittingham calls the shots, and always has. The new DC is John Pease (DC Saints and Jaguars 86-2005, Utah Utes 2009-2010). Pease is a more experienced X's and O's coach than Sitake.
-D-line: Orchard is gone, and his spot will be taken by one of Pita T. (passing down specialist, better pure pass rusher than Orchard, but not every down player), J Fanaika (DE/LB hybrid in the mold of Orchard), and Kylie Fitts (UCLA transfer, probably a year away from being the feature player on Utah's line). Both returning DTs started as freshmen in 2014 and have grown into their bodies a little more over the off season. Dimick (10 sacks) returns at the other end.
-LB: Same as 2014 except healthy.
-DB: Loses 2nd round pick E Rowe. Returns top DB R Porter who missed 2014 with injury.
- Safety: Loses big hitting safety/LB hybrid Blechen (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFJJeHsPpzk). Replacements appear to have better speed/coverage skills, maybe not as dependable in run suppor.
Special Teams
-KR: Lose Kaelin Clay and a lot of explosivity in return game.
- P/K: Returns all conference place kicker and Ray Guy winning Punter.
that is some good information right there. +1 for 'ya