Scotch Tape And Soda
1/27/2015 – Michigan 58, Nebraska 44 – 13-8, 6-3 Big Ten
[Bryan Fuller]
I'm not sure whether MAAR is the gum wrapper or the battery, whether Dawkins is the shoe or the lamp, whether Bielfeldt is the broom or the package of pantyhose. I do know that Zak Irvin is pulling the contraption taut. Spike Albrecht is lighting the package on fire. John Beilein is glancing up from his maniac's blueprint, waiting for the moment when Tim Miles's friendly head is dead in the crosshairs.
"Subs away," he says.
Miles: 'Their system ... We made a little run against their 2-3, and we never saw it again.'
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) January 28, 2015
A hit, a palpable hit. Michigan goes to 6-3 in the Big Ten playing a lot of weird guys.
All the weird guys, really. I guess DJ Wilson would be slightly weird at this point, but not nearly so weird as Dan Dakich criticizing his son for not stopping the ball in transition. The weirdness is out there, man. It is starting and not coming off the floor.
Michigan got 37 minutes from a guy in Pennsylvania who Penn State didn't bother to offer and this was fine. Good, even. MAAR/Rahk put up nine points on eight shots, had a few rebounds and a steal, and played good defense. Fellow weird guy Aubrey Dawkins was headed to Dayton before Michigan stepped in; he put up 13 on seven shots, had a killer block, and generally looked like the top 50 recruit Michigan was supposed to have in this class.
And Bielfeldt. I must confess that whenever he ends up on the floor I wonder what on Earth Michigan could have seen in a player who can only be a 6'7" center. I guess they think he can beat up Walter Pitchford. Which he can, somehow.
[Fuller]
My theory is that Beilein was working with the medical center on a top-secret growth project that fell through. A 6'10" Max Bielfeldt is really something.
In any case, we're here now, having a season. It's not a good season. But it is a season that's worth watching.
It's quite a trick to have a massively disappointing year—one that was headed that way even before the injury avalanche—and still give off the aura of gritty grit and development that Michigan is. They're not good. They're not bad, though, when they obviously should be.
This collection of guys gets a little less weird every time Dawkins has a line-drive three nestle into the net and hang there for a beat longer than you'd expect, every time MAAR gets to the rim and finishes tough. With LeVert on the shelf, this is next year's team assembling itself one game at a time. Add Duncan Robinson and DJ Wilson and, like, a toe for Walton and you could have something there.
Either way, this assemblage of dudes is flipping through configurations every time the opponent gets a handle on them. They morph into the most effective possible shape given their personal shortcomings and prevent a meh year from becoming a nightmare one. Let's see where it goes.
I'm thinking it goes to the NIT, but I'm okay with that. I'll take a few more games of Beilein pulling out every last banana peel he has for the opposition.
BULLETS
How about those late pickups? Michigan fans were confused when Beilein pulled in both Aubrey Dawkins and Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman very late in the last recruiting cycle. One seemed necessary given the roster; two was a flier on a random guy. Those pickups are now paying off.
The stats are still lagging, with both guys at the bottom of the list in terms of usage and with MAAR's early struggles holding his shooting numbers down; their play has improved greatly. Dawkins is the most efficient shooter Michigan has right now, at 57/42, albeit with a very small sample size. Both turn it over too much and aren't getting the assists Michigan will need them to acquire down the road, but at the very least both guys look like solid four-year college players.
That "four year" bit seems important these days. Michigan could use a dose of roster continuity in here.
This was a fortunate matchup. Nebraska's okay; Michigan matches up against them well this year. Michigan has a huge weakness on the defensive boards that the Cornhuskers generally do not even attempt to exploit. Pitchford's OREB rate is 3.7. The one guy who does get an appreciable number of OREBs, David Rivers, was out.
Meanwhile Michigan's zones give up a lot of corner threes against a team with no three point shooting. Petteway is at 34%; tiny pest Benny Parker is at 38% but is loathe to pull the trigger with just 29 attempts on the year. (Parker proved this by passing up multiple open looks in the second half.) The other guys pulling the trigger range from bad to abject.
Once Petteway turned out to be in bad Kobe mode it was just about whether Michigan could pull together enough offense to make it comfortable. They eventually could.
Bid? It's still highly unlikely. We could have been talking about it if they pulled out that Wisconsin game, which would not only have been a non-loss but also a big win. Without it there's not a whole lot of traction to be had in the remainder of the schedule. The Big Ten is having an off year and Rutgers is occupying two slots in the schedule that could have been any other Big Ten team.
Even if Michigan goes 12-6 in conference you're looking at a resume that is like so:
- 19-11 record pending Big Ten tourney
- Best nonconference win over Syracuse, which is likely to be a bubble team
- Maybe three wins over tourney teams in conference (6-3 finish likely assumes wins against NW and Rutgers and @ Illinois)
- Horrendous losses to NJIT and EMU
That's a bubble team, and one that could very easily get passed over. Michigan's RPI is currently 64th, they're 0-5 against top 50 teams, etc. It's a resume that could go either way depending on how Michigan's RPI shapes up.
But what if? Michigan's hit the meat of their schedule with six of their next seven games against Kenpom top 50 teams (and the lone exception is no cakewalk: @ Illinois). Go 4-3 in that stretch and then we might start tracking Bracket Matrix and the like.
Chatman. Oof. Not to pile on but man that guy is just completely out of it. He's not even close on his shots, he's repeatedly losing people on defense, he's turning the ball over a ton… you have to keep rolling him out there some since he's a guy who could turn it around and become a nice player down the road, but the regression from a place that wasn't that far off the ground to begin with is dismaying.
Irvin. With Derrick Walton out someone… needed to pick up the rebounding? Yes, yes, apparently. That was Irvin, who notched a double double. Hopefully this can get him more into games where he's not getting a ton of shots, or not hitting many of them.
January 28th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^
is a top 3 coach in the country. The way he coaches this young inexperienced team to be very competitive and win games, is amazing. Now we might not make the tourney this year, but man does the future once again look bright. Tip of the cap to him....just amazing.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
Let's slow down there champ. Beilein is a top 10 coach in the country. Top 5 maybe. Top 3? No.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:16 PM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 1:18 PM ^
For college, top three is reasonable. I think coach K one, then there's Pitino, Izzo, Calipari (though I put Beilein way ahead of him. Belien has done more with less) and I don't think anyone else is close. I have Belein somewhere in the # 2 to # 5 slot.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
and while I disagree, I bet plenty of media types would pick our friend up the road in EL. That would be wrong mind you, but I am referring to EPSN, etc. rather than reality.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:33 PM ^
he was talking about the actual coaching part--not the recruiting part
January 28th, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^
recruiting is a huge part of coaching.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
When I think best coach, I think of the overall record, not just recent memory. All these guys are right up there with Beilein.
Coach K, Calipari, Izzo, Pitino (who knows where Michigan would be if we hired him lol), Boeheim, Miller (Coach @ Zona), Brown (Probably washed up by now, but one of the best coaches in basketball history), Gregg Marshall (WSU coach, does a lot with no names), Kevin Ollie (fluke or no fluke), Williams, Matta, Self, Donnovan..
All these guys have equatable success or more conference titles/championships/Final 4 appearances.
January 28th, 2015 at 5:03 PM ^
No doubt a great X and O guy. But on overall body of work, it is preposterous to say Top 3 or 5. 640 wins, 260 of those at the Major Conference Level. But lets be serious, he is most definitely behind 1) Coach K 2) Boeheim 3) Pitino 4) Roy Williams 5) Calipari 6) Billy Donovan 7) Bill Self. At this point you can enter Beilein at the next tier with Bo Ryan, Izzo, Sean Miller, Jay Wright.
For us to have a Top 10 coach is great especially after the run of coaches we had. But that is where I see Coach B in the scheme of the college basketball world.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
Results are not the same thing as coaching ability. Calipari isn't a coach, he's the guy who stands on the sidelines while 10 of the top 20 players in the country play street ball. Give Beilein the same players at the same programs for the same length of time as all those above and his results would be at least as good as all of them. Coaching at Duke and Syracuse for 30+ years than coaching at terrible programs the entire time up to 3 or 4 years ago.
January 28th, 2015 at 7:38 PM ^
Look, I agree Beilein does more with less than anyone save Bo Ryan, but the fact that he has less is on him. If college basketball teams were randomly assigned players or had to draft from a pool of players, Beilein might be the best of all of them, but his guys are his guys. The goal is to win games and recruiting stud players is part of winning, and Beilein just isn't able to do that like some other coaches. The four guys you mention are prob the top four (altough Izzo could be slipping a bit), then Bill Self, Beiheim and Donovan, and as much as I hate to say it, Bo Ryan are definitely ahead of him. Miller from Arizona is right up there too. Beilein is in that 10ish range. Other guys that do a lot with a little and have had similar success at lesser programs are Smart and Few.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
No amount of recruiting is getting studs at canisius or west virginia or even here up until a couple years ago.
January 28th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^
is a top 3 coach in the country. The way he coaches this young inexperienced team to be very competitive and win games, is amazing. Now we might not make the tourney this year, but man does the future once again look bright. Tip of the cap to him....just amazing.
January 28th, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^
Reminds me of watching the teams from the late '90s and earlys '00s. There were low expectations, so when something good happened, it was a ton of fun to watch.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
Maybe Chatman was the one that should have redshirted.
The Duncan Robinson gamble really needs to pay off. LeVert is headed for the league, as he should be. I'm assuming we retain everyone else except Bielfeldt.
The Beilein offense is what it is. Next year we need consistent scoring options at guard.
Walton at PG with another year to work on his game. If Duncan and Irvin can come something close to Stauskas and Hardaway Jr, and Wilson / Donnal / Doyle can be effective threats on the interior, we might have something going. I'm also interested to see what Dawkins can be with another year of polish.
Chatman and Wilson are wild cards. I was hoping Chatman could play a GR3 like role.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
He may be able to shoot like Stauskas, but I have to believe he's not the same caliber athlete - probably not even close. Irvin would have to be Hardaway-plus for Irvin/Robinson to equal Hardaway/Stauskas.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
Yeah - that's what I meant. I expect Robinson to be a consistent shooter, able to hit at least half his 3 point attempts every night. Stauskas was that. I don't expect Robinson to be that kind of athletic slasher though.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
And you're very much right that he needs to pay off, IMO. As someone (Brian?) pointed out, it looks like he and Wilson are going to be the equivalent of the 2015 class, and Michigan hardly seems to have an abundance of impact guys (whether now or in the future) on the roster.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
Seeing some potential for a similar career arc here. THJ was a killer shooter always but then spent his sophomore year testing his limits and learning his limitations. Came back JR year knowing what he was good at and doing that. He became a well-rounded player, grabbing rebounds when his shot was off, and not forcing takes to the basket that weren't there.
If Irvin elects to come back next year (remember that some had him as a top 10 NBA prospect before the season started) like we hope and expect, he could be an all-conference player.
Robinson will not be, but he could do the freshman-year Stauskas corner-3-splash thing.
January 28th, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
Wat. Literally no one had Irvin had a top ten prospect, and definitely no reputable site even had him as a first rounder.
January 29th, 2015 at 12:18 AM ^
reputable site: ESPN
January 28th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^
I think the GR3 role goes to Dawkins based on the early returns this year. He is more slight in stature than GR3 but he plays the same offensive game; spot up shooter from three, elevate above a defender to get a shot off in the lane, use insane athleticism to sky above defenders for boards. Defensivley its hard to say if he will fill the same GR3 role but he did have nice block last night that showcased his insane leaping ability
Chatman definitely is a wild card though. On his HS film he looks like he could handle the rock comfortably and Beilein has praised his passing ability. Right now he just looks lost and dejected and almost like he doesn't know what to do in the college flow of the game.
IIRC Chatman played some PG in high school and had a late growth spurt to get where he is now. Couple that with the fact he wasn't always up against top flight competition in Oregon and he may be more of a project than we first assumed given his high rankings.
That said, if he gets it together I salivate at the possibilty of a guy of his size being the guy running Beilein's offense while our traditional PG is operating off-ball.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^
To add to what you said, GRIII came in with skills - leaping ability and shooting - that seem to me to translate to the college game immediately. Chatman is more of a passer and less of an athlete, and my guess is that it's harder for a guy like that to plug right in. He'll have to have an understanding of the college game and be comfortable before he can flourish.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^
Not the physical force that GR3 was but brings better 3 point shooting capability. I think he should be penciled into the starting lineup next year: Walton/Irvin/Robinson/Dawkins/Doyle (with the 2-4 spots being interchageable).
January 28th, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^
much better than I expected, particularly as Beilein wasn't playing him much even in the early easy games. What he does well is obvious. Besides some defensive issues, what he really needs to work on is his handle. He is so uncomfortable dribbling more than once or twice. But then he had a very strong drive in the second half--arguably his first of the year. Though he missed it, if he can add that, good things will become even better.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:59 PM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^
The "Invisible Man" comment is a dig at GR3. If so, it is misplaced.
Did you want GR3 hogging the ball or jacking shots on those teams?
GR3's highlight dunks, athleticism, physicality created space for his teammates EVERY POSSESSION. Basketball is more than one-on-one.
January 28th, 2015 at 7:49 PM ^
but getting more than 4 rebounds per game at the #4 for 30+ minutes per game is not too much to ask. there is no reason with his athleticism that he didn't pull down 7 boards a game. hustle and desire.
January 29th, 2015 at 12:22 AM ^
Name me a Beilein 4 that got a lot of rebounds....
...
...
It wasn't his job, and Michigan didn't really struggle with rebounding. McGary and Horford were among the DRB rate leaders in the country and THJ was pretty solid as well. GR3's job was to box out the bigger PFs he was typically defending.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:06 PM ^
Yeah, people have short memories. Every single person on this blog was disappointed in GRIII every moment he wasn't throwing down a highlight dunk, he was never as good as we thought he would or should be and he looked the exact same in the NBA D-league and is now riding the bench. It's very disappointing how he has never developed.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
The committee tends to be kind to teams who end the season well, which we would have to do to get to 11-7. And as someone who follows the bracket pretty closely, there's been a tangible difference in the resumes of who gets in since it went to 68 teams. Take a look at the schedules for any "last four in" or "last four out" team right now and it's nothing special. Having said that though, 11-7 will be a tall order with our remaining schedule. The Iowa, MSU, and OSU home games are gigantic and we might need a sweep.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
The scrappy underdog narrative should be saved for motivational speeches from coaches. Consider the talent Michigan has on it's roster.
- PG - 4* / #44 rank nationally
- SG - Insert 3* injury replacement for Caris [e.g., MAAR]
- SF - 4* / #28 rank nationally
- PF - 4* / #26 rank nationally
- C - 4*/ #86 rank nationally
--------
Michigan is basically performing at their expected production relative to recruiting rankings. The misses and/or just-be-patients (Donnal, Wilson, Chatman) are being offset by the 2-star kids playing like 4-star recruits.
When Michigan pulls 4-star top 100 recruits off it's bench, it's the kind of thing Eddie Jordan means when he expresses jealousy. It's also something teams like Nebraska can't match. We're SUPPOSED to beat these teams, even without Caris LeVert. Michigan's talent level rivals most of the better teams in the country beyond the elite tier. They're a little younger and a little more banged up -- but these are normal issues that most teams deal with.
When Michigan plays Bielfeldt and Spike, it's a testament of Beilein's ability to find diamonds in the rough. It's also a testament to his inability to land better recruits. He isn't handed a quota of 3-star recruits anymore than Rich Rodriguez was. We aren't a mid-major school. We're a powerhouse program with great tradition and demonstrated capability to consistently land top 10 recruiting classes.
I like this team. I like the players on it. I love our coach and his staff. But I would like it more if they weren't getting run off the court against Ohio State.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^
Some guys are overrated, others are underrated. In balance...
Also -- it's WAY too early to say that about Chatman. The history of freshman who have struggled is looooooooooong and Chatman's was ALWAYS going to be raw given his background. Not many elite college players play at such a low level of HS ball.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^
You seemed to convienantly ignore the fact that those people you listed are all freshman or sophomores and that Walton, one of those highly rated players, has been playing with a bad toe all year. Even highly rated players can't be expected to to carry a team their first few seasons, yet that is exactly what has been asked of them. It has led to a few poor outings, but one can see the improvement and continued development. So yes, the scrappy underdog narrative is appropiate for this team.
January 28th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
The 2012-2013 team had essentially the same level of experience as this team. Nobody was using youth as an excuse then. and nobody should do it now.
Being young is normal for college basktball. Many of the best players in college are freshman or sophomore dominated. Michigan is no different.
Other teams deal with injury too. Nothing going here is an outlier or particularly unexpected.
Nobody is asking anybody to carry this team. The one guy who did was Caris LeVert, a junior. With him gone the Walton and Irvin have stepped up, along with freshman. It's a team effort. Again, nothing unexpected.
These guys aren't underdogs. They are typically young, typically talented, and getting typical results.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
Dear Beilein:
In your pre-MSU press conferences, you will be asked about all of the injuries and illness. It would be much appreciated if you said something like, "Look, this is Michigan basketball. We aren't here to complain or whine about anything. Our team on the floor is our team. I'll leave the whining to lesser coaches and lesser programs. Now, let's get weird!"
January 28th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^
They work hard, play for each other, are resilient, and show real improvement and development from game to game.
Who would have thought that we'd see Dawkins and MAAR not just starting, but significantly contributing, not to mention seeing real results from Max battling and scrapping underneath. Don't have the offensive firepower of previous years? Let's start driving teams crazy with different zones...
Love the job Beilein is doing, and much like the team, I find myself not worrying about the schedule or which tourney, if any, we'll be playing in - just the next game.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:46 PM ^
You have to chuckle at the irony that...
This year's football team was a not-good team because Brady Hoke is a mediocre/bad coach. This year's basketball is a not-good team because Beilein is an excellent coach. Fortunately we now have reason to expect that both of these things will correct themselves, and soon.
January 28th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^
Brady Hoke took Rich Rod's players and went 11-2. He then proceeded to go 8-5, 7-6, and 5-7 as he gradually got his players and his system in place.
Beilein is a Final Four coach.
January 28th, 2015 at 8:41 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
The teams are/were opposites: football has high level recruits with low level coaching and basketball has high level coaching with low level recruits.
January 28th, 2015 at 2:13 PM ^
This team has subs. It's crazy.
January 28th, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
Sooo......... not a single solitary soul got the Kingston Trio reference in the post title?
January 30th, 2015 at 7:53 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
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