TCU or Baylor?
What's our impartial consensus -- if there is to be a BigXII team in the playoffs for the national championship trophy that looks like a female body part, should it be TCU or Baylor?
If you saw the news today, the BigXII has decided that it won't name it's conf champion (=Baylor) but will "submit both teams" to the Committee to pick which should go to the playoff. The BigXII claims it's not the BigXII's business to determine who the BigXII champion is, but the national committee should do that. Yikes. BUT, if one team (=TCU) goes to the playoff, then the other team (=Baylor) will then be declared by the conference to be the conference champion, guaranteeing it a spot in another big bowl. There's a term for this: trying to have your cake and eat it too.
Anyhoo, I am strongly believing that Baylor deserves to go b/c it beat TCU. Otherwise it's certainly not recognizing the conference champion (even if the conference won't say those words, yet), and it's really minimizing the impact of the most key evaluation -- head on head.
Sure TCU might have had the better season against common opponents and played a tougher nonconf schedule, BUT, they played a round robin in the conference, so to me, head to head should decide it.
Now, watch K-State klunk Baylor next week and moot the point.
December 1st, 2014 at 5:20 PM ^
Whichever one keeps Ohio State out.
December 1st, 2014 at 5:37 PM ^
I wouldn't mind seeing tOSU make it in and piss off all the B1G is weak whiners. Just as long as it's tOSU -- they've been there before. Fuck Sparty and their fanbase.
December 1st, 2014 at 5:42 PM ^
Zero chance with Cardale at the helm. If Barrett were OK they had a good case.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:05 PM ^
Unlike a lot of Buckeyes, he did come to Playskool!
(I wonder if he comes with removeable tattoos?)
December 1st, 2014 at 6:17 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^
TCU. If the TCU-Baylor game had been a lopsided Baylor win - or even a road win at TCU - I might feel differently, but in my mind that win isn't enough for Baylor to overcome TCU's superior performance in the rest of its games.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^
SMU: Baylor 45-0, TCU 56-0
Iowa St: Baylor 49-28 (road), TCU - TBD
Texas: Baylor 28-7 (road) , TCU 48-10 (road)
West Virginia: Baylor 27-41 (road), TCU 31-30 (road)
Kansas: Baylor 60-14 (home), TCU 34-30 (road)
Oklahoma: Baylor 48-14 (road), TCU 37-33 (home)
Oklahoma St: Baylor 49-28 (home), TCU 42-9 (home)
Texas Tech: Baylor 48-46 (home) , TCU 82-27 (home)
KState: Baylor - TBD, TCU 41-20 (home)
I don't see a lot of difference there. Both teams had a couple close calls: Baylor with Texas Tech and the loss to WVU and TCU with Oklahoma, WVU and Kansas. Other then that they've pretty much been blowing everyone out. TCU did play Minnesota in non-conference but at least according to FEI their SOS's is very similiar - TCU 60, Baylor 68.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^
Thanks for this.
I've been basing my view on this mostly on the gap between them in almost all of the computer rankings (including FEI), but you're right that it's hard to see here. A win over K-State would obviously help Baylor there more than a win over Iowa State would help TCU, and then I think it's down to what you think about Minnesota.
December 1st, 2014 at 7:10 PM ^
to see what the committee does. Miss St. losing just opened things wide open for the 4th slot. Toss in Barrett getting hurt and it'll be interesting to see how the rankings look tomorrow night.
December 1st, 2014 at 7:53 PM ^
MSU in the ranking and sit at #7 overall. They have a real good chance of getting to #4 after Pac-12 Championship game (if they beat Oregon that is).
December 1st, 2014 at 9:15 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:24 PM ^
Whomever fires Brady Hoke?
December 1st, 2014 at 5:27 PM ^
Whoever is the subject. Hoke is the indirect object.
December 1st, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^
Brady Hoke used me as an object.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:02 PM ^
You should look into counseling.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^
you should come over to my house. We can hang out, listen to Neutral Uke Hotel, smoke some pot, and talk badly about Brady Hoke.
I think that sounds like a wonderful time.
December 1st, 2014 at 8:33 PM ^
Totally OMW
December 1st, 2014 at 9:10 PM ^
delete
December 1st, 2014 at 5:29 PM ^
Isn't this simply determined by head to head record?
So Baylor, assuming they beat KSU, will be the champion as far as bowl selection goes.
Also, just add BYU and Boise St already and play a conference championship game.
December 1st, 2014 at 5:35 PM ^
No... the comittee has clearly said that body of work matters. That's the reason this is even a discussion in the first place. If it was head to head, Baylor beat TCU and clase closed.
BYU just went independent. They are not going to join the B12 as long as Texas runs the show.
December 1st, 2014 at 5:41 PM ^
We are talking about the other team that doesn't make the playoffs. In this case shouldn't the head to head winner of the two co champions be considered the Big XII champion for bowl selection?
December 1st, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:30 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 9:45 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^
For purposes of the CFP, I don't think what the BIG 12 does because it shouldn't factor into the discussion which really should come down to overall resume, both in conference and out of conference, and results of those games. TCU lost to Baylor but beat Minny OOC. Baylor has one more quality win thanks to the TCU game but also has a not very good loss to WVU and no good OOC wins. Baylor has also not looked so great in some of its recent games. Since the committee is looking for more than conf champs, head to head shouldn't be a deciding factor. Otherwise what would the point be in scheduling good OOC games if you just default to in conference results?
December 1st, 2014 at 5:34 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:36 PM ^
Could care less, I just want Harbaugh!
December 1st, 2014 at 5:47 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^
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December 1st, 2014 at 5:41 PM ^
TCU probably has the better resume, but I don't know how you can possibly ignore head to head. That should be the trump card if there's a tie.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:00 PM ^
I think you can "ignore" head to head if it's a really tight game, especially when the winner was playing on its home field. Did Baylor's win really show that they would win more than half their games against TCU?
If you say that TCU's and Baylor's resume are nearly identical, then sure, use the head to head result. If you think TCU's season has been better as a whole, then I don't have a problem not using the head to head result to give the advantage to TCU.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:16 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:43 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:43 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 5:47 PM ^
I think I speak for the board when I ask "who does Jim Harbaugh like between the two?".
December 1st, 2014 at 5:51 PM ^
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December 1st, 2014 at 6:09 PM ^
under the present rules, they can't have a CCG.
December 1st, 2014 at 5:57 PM ^
I usually claim to "hate" conference title games and divisions and sometimes pontificate about how it's everything wrong with CFB and college sports. I never really minded the old co-champ days. But I'm finding myself incredibly annoyed at the B12 for this. I'd even be okay with them naming them co-champs but saying "since Baylor won the head-to-head, they have NY6 bowl bid if they don't make the CFP." Or if by some other determination you'd rather award TCU with the top spot, whatever. Tie breakers are always messy. But make some rules and stick with them and change them afterwards if everyone's annoyed about it - didn't we learn anything from the good ol' BCS?
December 1st, 2014 at 6:02 PM ^
If we go by Massey numbers, TCU is probably going to trounce Iowa State with their estimated 98% win probability. Baylor's game against against Kansas State favors Baylor, but it is far less certain - Baylor's estimated win probability is 63% and the estimated scoring margin after several trials is 4 points in favor of Baylor. The way I see this is that if both of them win, the team that won the head-to-head matchup should be at least considered (I know, strength of schedule, overall performance metrics like scoring margin, etc...also apply). If either loses, the decision is far simpler.
December 1st, 2014 at 7:39 PM ^
Call me cynical, but I'd be shocked if they didn't find a way to clear Bryce Petty for the game.
http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/11/baylor-qb-bryce-petty-e…December 1st, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 6:05 PM ^
- Loss to Baylor was aided by a bogus PI call in Baylor's favor late
- Loss was close and the road. Basically a tie in my book
- TCU has looked way better. Just look at TCU's wins compared to Baylor's. Not close
December 1st, 2014 at 9:45 PM ^
I think you were the first to mention this in the thread: not only did TCU have a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter, and was playing on the road, but Baylor completed their comeback only by virtue of a bad PI call in the closing seconds. Moreover, on the previous TCU drive, the refs failed to call PI (probably rightly) on more or less the exact same play when TCU would have benefited and so would have been given the chance to put the game away.
In other circumstances, I'd be willing to give Baylor the nod based on their head-to-head win, even if I think TCU would have won on a neutral sight... but not when considering the officiating in that game, along with Baylor's loss to WVU, and the fact that Baylor doesn't otherwise have a better resume in conference, and the fact that Baylor didn't play a quality out-of conference opponent. TCU did play a quality opponent (Minnesota), and they thrashed them. I respect the opinions of others but I just really don't see an argument for Baylor, unless something unexpected happens this weekend.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:09 PM ^
I have a feeling Kansas St. is going to take care of this converstation for us.
That said, I really like Baylor and have for a few years but TCU for whatever reason I feel should go this year.
But man, how crazy would it be if Iowa St. could do to TCU what they did to Oklahoma St. a few years back?! (However, this game is at TCU).
December 1st, 2014 at 6:11 PM ^
they have a better OOC schedule have looked a bit more impressive. I'm also a big fan of TCU so there's that as well.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:27 PM ^
Baylor scheduled three OOC auto-wins.
Does TCU's 30-7 home Minny* win outweigh Baylor's 3 point home head-to-head win? I'm leaning toward no, but I wouldn't strongly object to yes.
But that's only if it comes down to Baylor vs TCU. What if the committee lines up TCU, Ohio State, and Baylor (as ordered presently) and decides TCU > OSU > Baylor? Then I think you go with TCU.
I personally think that TCU's present spot is really the Big 12 Top Spot, which is likely to change if Baylor beats KSU.
*Minny is presently ranked #34 by Massey. http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf&sub=FBS