Basketball Team Searchbits: Nearing Commit One
Dusty May Gets It
May did an interview with Champions Circle that had a lot of encouraging quotes in it; Dusty May seems to understand the current state of college basketball and is going to deal with it as best he can:
A lot of times us coaches, I think we expect more out of these young men than we do ourselves. I've tried to be even transparent with my processes of jobs and whatnot and even with our guys at FAU. They read last year that I was up for jobs and this and that, and I explained to them that we're all sacrificing here. I'm not telling you that to earn any more equity with you. I'm just saying that this is part of being a member of something great.
And then you come here, and the contract, the length of years was never my priority with any of these jobs. I wanted to pursue the job that fit me and I felt like we could be the absolute best we could be. But then again, when these players and everyone looks and sees how much coaches make, they naturally want a bigger piece of the pie. They deserve more than what they were getting. But it's such an unregulated market and you never know.
I do want all the players that play for us to be taken care of. And what I mean by 'taken care of': To be able to to have their parents attend games, to be able to eat what they need to eat to be a high-performing athlete. And also, my goal with anyone that has NIL, is save enough money where no matter what happens next, you can at least have a down payment on a house and you have a nest egg built.
That's about right: they should get paid, but it's got to be about more than that. May hasn't put a foot wrong so far in his brief tenure.
Speed Dating
A few guys have progressed to the "actually definitely a target" stage:
FAU C Vlad Goldin fielded another prediction in favor of Michigan, this one from Joe Tipton. This one seems over. Goldin will be on campus this weekend as soon as the dead period ends and I bet one dollar he does not leave campus uncommitted.
[After THE JUMP: new portal entries perk up the ears]
Also on campus this weekend: Yale C Danny Wolf. I imagine we'll get a quick answer about whether Wolf is okay with 15 MPG as a backup 5 plus 5-10 as a 4 (maybe?) with the prospect of being the starter next year. If not Michigan will need to expand their search for a second center.
Toledo SG Dante Maddox cut his list from eight to five. Michigan remains. Louisville, Xavier, Creighton, and Illinois are the others. This one still feels like a longshot, as Maddox has set up visits to three of his suitors but does not have a date for a Michigan visit (or Creighton, FWIW).
Seems like it's Michigan or Indiana for Wisconsin SG Connor Essegian. Essegian was supposed to be on campus this weekend as well, but it's unclear that is still on.
Michigan hasn't been listed with Eric Dailey but he doesn't go anywhere else in this post: he is apparently trending to UCLA.
They Have Received Texts
New guys Michigan has sent a text to:
- Oklahoma State PG Javon Small. As mentioned in a previous post, Small is finishing up his true junior season and that seems like an admissions death knell.
- BGSU PF Basheer Jihad (102 ORTG on 31% usage, 49/36/76 shooting, ton of FTs, elevated TO rate). Jihad is also a true junior, so unlikely.
- Dayton SG Kobe Elvis (105 ORTG on 21% usage, top-250 assist rate, 39/37/85 shooting). Grad transfer. Two point shooting extremely questionable for a guy with a middling usage rate.
- Morehead state PG Drew Thelwell (110 ORTG on 19% usage, 52/34/66 shooting splits, 29 assist rate, 20 TO rate). Grad transfer, true point, but elevated TO rate. Iowa seems to lead.
Speculative Phone Calls
Throwing some darts:
Auburn freshman PG Aden Holloway hit the portal. Holloway's sister is a current WBB commit. The Holloways' mom is an alum and their grandfather played at Michigan in the 1960s. Holloway had a bit of a rough first year, shooting 35/30/77 after coming in with a reputation as one of the best shooters in his class. Really good assist and turnover rates,—22 and 12, respectively—especially for a freshman. Freakish catch-and-shoot splits (86th percentile when guarded, 12th when not) plus rep as one of the best shooters in his high school class suggest that deep shooting has major upside. Second percentile at rim is a concern.
This one may be less speculative, since Auburn people are mentioning Michigan as a potential destination.
USF grad C Kasean Pryor also hit the portal. Pryor spent a couple years at Ann Arbor Pioneer before spending his final year at a prep school. His career is strange: virtually no playing time in two years at Boise, a sit-out year, and then an out-of-nowhere blowup into a 26% usage player on a good USF team. Pryor played center for USF but he has three-point range, a face-up game, and is not a plodding guy. If you think this guy can stay in front of Big Ten fours…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqa3BM-SgMY
…he would be an excellent pickup. I do. DJ Wilson vibes. Should have two years left.
Arkansas SG commit Isaiah Elohim re-opened his recruiting. Apparently Elohim chose Arkansas over Kansas and Villanova; we'll see if Michigan tries to get involved.
Georgia SF Jabri Abdur-Rahim hit the portal as a grad transfer. Abdur-Rahim is Just A Shooter who played about half of UGA's minutes the last couple years and was reasonably efficient. Miskdeen obviously knows him. Michigan recruited him heavily under Beilein but he chose to go to UVA.
Extremely speculative % updates
Now with everyone on the board; bold is updated.
- Vlad Goldin: 80% –> 95%. All but done.
- Johnell Davis: 70% –> 60%: Seems like NIL will be a big factor and while May is going to try, I would not assume Davis's personal loyalty will win out when he's got one year to make bank before a pro career that doesn't seem like it'll be in the NBA.
- George Washington III: 60%.
- Khani Rooths: 60%.
- Danny Wolf: 60%. Wolf entered asking for no-contact, has already had an in-person visit with May, and nearly walked on at Michigan instead of going to Yale. Even if Goldin does come it seems like he's willing to play 15 MPG and then start as a senior.
- Connor Essegian: 60% –> 50%. If the visit doesn't happen this weekend that's probably bad.
- Alijah Martin: 70% –> 40%. Apparently May is telling people he's going to get one or two guys from FAU; Goldin is one. I would assume Martin and Davis are mutually exclusive then?
- Aden Holloway: off the board –> 40%. Family connections warrant place on board.
- Elijah Elliott/Ty Robinson/Lorenzo Cason: 40%.
- Terrance Williams: 30%.
- Carey Booth: 20%
- Brandon Garrison: 10%. I am assuming he gets pre-empted by Goldin and Wolf.
- Eric Dailey: 10%.
- Dante Maddox: off the board –> 10%. Top five but three visits set and one isn't Michigan.
- Liam McNeeley: 1%.
- Giancarlo Rosado: 5% –> off the board. Michigan's going after other bigs.
Kobe Elvis from Dayton? Yes, please. Get Kobe Brea while you're there.
ARE WE JUST MAKING UP NAMES NOW
while we're at it, let's get:
LEBRON PRINCE
KAREEM KING COLE
MAGIC BEYONCE
There's no need to get all shook up.
You ain't nothing but a mamba?
April 11th, 2024 at 10:21 AM ^
Uh-huh-huh.
Heck yes, for the name alone. Plus we need lots of bodies.
As a Dayton fan, I like both Kob{e,y}s but Brea is the one you would really want. 50% 3p shooter on 200 attempts? Guy is a complete lights out shooter. I've not seen any news of him ending up in the portal though.
This is the answer. Elvis is extremely frustrating and don’t think he’s much more than 8th man material on a Big Ten team. Koby Brea, however…
Missed opportunity to say, "I like both Kobi" sadface
One guy is better than 60%? If you take every last +50% we have a 8 man roster?
I take it a lot of Brian’s uncertainty is baked into those numbers.
So 60% doesn’t mean 40% chance of rain, per se. It can mean something like, “I have 75% confidence in my information that it’s 80% happening.”
I love it!
I for one take all information on the internet as fact so I shall hold the author to the exact percentages. Pitchforks if he is off on his prediction!
Everything on the internet is true. Unless it's false - in which case means everything on the internet is false.
Are we clear now? Good...
Good observation, but the author can only go on what info is available, and a lot of it is unknown, including players not discussed, nor even in consideration yet.
If you do an expected value calculation by just adding up all the percentages, it comes out to 5.86 added players from that list.
Math!
So who's the 0.86 player? Is that Jace?
I'm just asking - don't wad your panties!
April 11th, 2024 at 10:49 AM ^
ouch......
Something May preached at FAU that I have yet to see or hear mentioned here is how he ran his rotations with essentially 8 or 9 guys playing 20-25 mpg. So I actually think 15 MPG for Wolf is an underestimation and is the one reason i feel remotely confident we can land 2 starting centers in the portal in the same year.
Also, anyone know what happened to Davis Moseley's Google doc of Michigan targets? The link is dead for me now.
Yeah, he deleted it. I think he was giving away too much free info and now that he is gaining followers he's putting everything on 24/7. Either that or he's about to be dead wrong on a lot of guys.
Ah, bummer. I've been considering trying a 247 sub but $10 for 1 month with no refunds and auto renew and no free trial option is a no from me. Oh well.
"whether Wolf is okay with 15 MPG as a backup 5 plus 5-10 as a 4 (maybe?)"
That's 20-25 minutes for Wolf.
Read it too quickly! Thanks.
Totally agree. I'd expect him to get at least 25 min a game.
Also, one guy shoots threes and one works with back to the basket, right? So in different games, a different guy might get more run?
So these bigs are interested because they won't be tutored by Juwan...
If Michigan can't land Davis over NIL then absolutely nothing is changing or will chance. To me he is the symbol that Michigan is serious about winning.
How embarrassing it will be for May if the kid gives him a number and tubby says no.
This is a serious question: Are you saying Michigan should pay WHATEVER he wants? Remembering that we actually have to pay everyone else on the roster as well -- a whole roster of players who have no connection or loyalty to Michigan?
I mean, maybe. But I like how this board goes back and forth between "we shouldn't just be one of those schools who take players only looking for money like [fill in rival school X here]" and "if we don't pay whatever it takes to get player X it's an embarrassing failure."
By "tubby" I suspect you mean AD Warde Manuel. The guy who it should be known does not control NIL funding. I mean, what a stupid fucking comment.
Also, Warde can be knocked for his acumen as an AD (something I do regularly), but personal insults are just sad. It says more about you than it does him, honestly.
April 11th, 2024 at 10:23 AM ^
So who does control NIL funding? Warde has explicitly said he's against paying players up front. I don't think that's just up to the coaches to follow or not.
April 11th, 2024 at 10:36 AM ^
To make it as simple as I can, NIL cannot come from the school. Either from a direct funding or payment standpoint. NIL comes from 3rd party entities that are giving out payments at the direction of the coaching staff and support staff. Michigan has actual staff members whose sole job is to organize and act as the middle man between the program and the people running the collectives.
Warde has absolutely nothing to do with actual NIL outside of occasionally rubbing shoulders with reps/donors for fundraising.
April 11th, 2024 at 10:37 AM ^
The guy has become such a target for things that have nothing to do with his job over the past few years.
The whole fat-shaming thing is unwelcome here. Check your bigotry.
April 10th, 2024 at 10:25 PM ^
Holloway's grandfather, Dave Raimey, played football, at UM. He was the best player on a lousy team in 1962 and went on to a long career in the CFL. He was inducted into the CFL Hall of Fame in 2000.
Please God no T-Will.
Why?
April 11th, 2024 at 10:16 AM ^
New name on the board: Tre Donaldson, G from Auburn.
He's visiting Michigan on April 19th. It'll be interesting to see if both Donaldson and Holloway wants to transfer to the same school since both are competing for the same position. Although Dusty's system would allow both on the court since both can be on ball and off ball guards. Holloway doesn't fit the ideal size that May look for in a guard but he's a former 5* recruit with elite shooting.
May sounds a lot like a younger version of John Beilein. Can't wait to see his team play.
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