Michigan Will Defeat Georgia (and here are the reasons why)
The experts have got this contest all wrong. Let's go over the reasons why Michigan will emerge victorious:
1. Coaching Matters
Let's not pretend that Georgia isn't cooking up some good stuff on both sides of the ball for this game. We know they are and we know they have capable coaches. But Josh Gattis won the Broyles Award for a reason and Mike MacDonald's entire defensive approach is to scheme exotic looks and coverages. Giving them extra time to prepare is almost always an advantage over the opponent.
2. Cade McNamara's Passing Has Been Needed In 1.5 Games...... And He Delivered
I'm not going to sit here and tell you that our starting quarterback has always instilled confidence in his ability to sling the rock around the yard, particularly early in the season. But lost in all of this is the simple fact that McNamara's ability to really pass the ball has only been needed in the second half against Nebraska and the Michigan State game. And there's no question he came through in those instances. We have a young, inexperienced quarterback (two in fact). And our receivers are young as well. Hell, Donovan Edwards might be our best receiving weapon and we just barely started utilizing him. Georgia's secondary had major busts against Alabama. Don't automatically assume Michigan can't throw the ball effectively against this team, even without the aid of an effective running game.
3. Have Fun Dealing With Harbaugh's Endless Array Of Running Plays
Like most of you, the various nuances of run blocking are somewhat lost on me. I can't break down tape well enough to give a unique take on this aspect of the game. But what I can say with confidence is that Harbaugh loves himself some creative play calling in the running game. Yes, Georgia is nearly impossible to run against due to their personnel. But no defense has players so talented and so flawless in their technique as to bypass the need to identify what is being thrown at them and react accordingly.
4. These Aren't Your Grandparents Defensive Tackles And Cornerbacks
Yes, we are all aware that our starting defensive tackles and cornerbacks have improved dramatically over the course of the season. We also may realize in the back of our minds that our players have become much more accustomed to the radical change in defensive scheme. But it's still difficult to comprehend that our defense today is nothing like the defense that gave up 37 points to Michigan State. And part of the reason is because we gave up 27 points to Ohio State. That doesn't feel dominant. But the Buckeyes needed every possible bounce and every ludicrous catch and every lucky 4th down play call to get to those 27 points. Georgia will be facing one of the 5 best defenses in America on Friday, season long advanced metrics be damned.
5. Being An Underdog Can Be An Advantage In The Semifinal Round
Let's be honest. A lot of these semifinal playoff games have been between two teams who are at wildly different levels in terms of talent and ability. Those contests tend to turn out ugly. But there are several examples of favorites coming in cocky and not realizing they aren't actually better than their opponent. The results have sometimes been shocking (Ohio State beating Alabama with their 3rd string quarterback; Clemson beating Ohio State 31-0). If Georgia comes into this game underestimating us at all, they won't get their chance to avenge their loss to Alabama.
These are my 5 reasons Michigan will win on Friday. Feel free to give us your reasons why we will advance to the national title game.
December 29th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
I just think we will score more points because whoever scores more and gives up less points typically wins the game
December 29th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
WIN THE GAME
December 29th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
6. Because that's our favorite team.
December 29th, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
Like the majority of games played throughout the history of the sport, it will come down to who wins the battle at the line of scrimmage. Both teams hang their hat on a physical running game and hard play action off those looks. This game is 50/50 which is what it should be with 2 elite teams matching up.
December 29th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^
turnovers will be big in what is expected to be a fairly low scoring game.
please please please catch the punt, henning.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
This right here. If we can generate consistent pressure on their QB and limit their running game, I think Michigan wins. I believe we can score at least 20 points on their defense. Win the trenches, win the game.
December 29th, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
- Michigan has the best player on the field in Aidan Hutchinson
- Georgia is looking behind (and ahead) at Alabama
- Everyone forgets about special teams (Michigan #1 in the nation)
- Georgia's best win of the seasons is, unironically, UAB
- Coordinators that have been hired somewhere else but coach through the bowl game have a terrible track record
(Edit: Doubling down on the University of Alabama-Birmingham. Ergo I am calling the winless-bowl-season SEC trash.)
December 29th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Curious to hear why you say UAB is their best win.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:04 PM ^
Yeah, UAB is ranked 65th on Sagarin and lost to Rice... at home.
December 29th, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
Kentucky was their best win.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^
Well, you could claim it as Clemson. But they did not look good to start the year and their best win might be Wake Forest. Or it could be Arkansas. Arkansas's best win is likely an early season win over A&M at Jerryworld. Not a murder's row. UAB it is not, however.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
I am guessing he meant AUB as in Auburn?
December 29th, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
6. I'm going to the game. Michigan hasn't lost a game I've attended since the 2004 Rose Bowl. Indy here we come!
December 29th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
Ok, but for purposes of assigning the appropriate amount of astrological value here, is that like 2 games or 20 games?
December 29th, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
Somewhere right in between. With a caveat--I've lived in Chicago and DC since college, so lots of games against Northwestern (never when they were good), Rutgers, and Maryland. But also Penn State in Happy Valley in 2006! Indy here we come!
December 29th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
Equally scientific, I've been consulting the Magic Eight Ball for several weeks regarding this game. It was correct in both the Ohio State and Iowa games. I've probably asked it 12 times in different ways whether we're going to beat Georgia. 10 of 12 times were a yes. With Ohio State and Iowa, it never wavered. 100% yeses and I probably asked 6 or 7 times before each game. We'll see.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:35 PM ^
I like this approach. It is solid. Do not doubt the prescience of the Magic 8 Ball.
Also, we have the power of 42 going for us, which has been previously scientifically illuminated.
All signs are pointing to Wolverine victory.
December 29th, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^
Works for me.... Go Blue!
December 29th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
Thanks, Blue...
December 29th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
This is sound logic here. And if the rest of you don't fuck it up by wearing the wrong underwear Friday night, we are a lock for the Championship game.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
Why about those of us that always go commando?
December 29th, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
Prob just go commando so win-win.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
I wore my jersey and nothing else for the OSU and Iowa games so will keep going with that
December 29th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Prediction: M wins because of Moody
December 29th, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
Cade gets him into range.
I disagree that we only needed Cade's passing for 1.5 games. Primarily because you left off the Penn State game. Also, with teams primarily focusing on the run (because: Harbaugh), Cade's timely completions kept drives alive and forced the other teams to move away from "stop the run at all costs".
December 29th, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^
I finally attended a game this year - my first since 1997.
I think that speaks for itself...
December 29th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
I live in Georgia and I keep mentioning the passing attack to the Georgia fans I talk to. If they think they will shut Michigan's run game down and that will that they are sorely mistaken. Cornelius Johnson, Roman Wilson, and Andrel Anthony will all play on Sundays in due time. Same with All and Schoonmaker. Same with Haskins, Corum, and Edwards. All of these guys are excellent receivers. This is a stacked passing attack. Just because we haven't really had to use it does not mean we can not.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^
You forgot Carter Selzer.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
Right on. Plus, this stadium is semi closed off so there won't be any wind to contend with. Not to mention it was will be in the mid 70s. Michigan passed very well against sparty and in much worse weather conditions- some light rain and drizzle all afternoon.
December 29th, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^
Other part to recall, we’re a team with a positive Blue Chip ratio. Our players aren’t a bunch of scrubs. We’re not an Iowa or Wisconsin that gets by exclusively on developing underrated guys into all B1G caliber players. We’ve got 4 and 5 stars to go along with everything you just mentioned.
PS we aren’t the team with a former walk-on QB or a former walk-on leading the receiving room in yards. (Bowers is a TE, not WR)
December 29th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
I'm relying on my gut as I did the entire season. My gut is nervous but isn't telling me we're going to lose. It's telling me it's going to be a close game and a win feels like it's very possible. I'll revisit this after the game and see if my gut was right.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^
Good take. I like optimism. Yes, Michigan CAN DO THIS!
Go Blue!
December 29th, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
I'm not pessimistic about this game or Cade's ability to pass on them. This passing offense is better than a lot of people think, but make no mistake, it is NOT nearly as good as Alabama's passing offense.
Michigan does not need to do what Alabama did to win though. As long as they can keep the down and distance manageable and not get behind, their whole playbook remains open and that is how they can scheme around UGA to create some big plays. Keeping UGA off balance will be a major key.
I don't think either team has a QB that can get them out of a big hole though. Both are good game managers and can make plays, but neither of them are game changers in any sense of the word.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:36 PM ^
cade has been hitting the deep ball more consistently the past few games. this is a big change from early in the year. and it is huge for this offense.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
Yeah I know...too many are using the Bama game as a blueprint for UM but UM isn't going to become Bama in a few weeks if ever. If UM wins its much more likely to be bec of what we've already seen from the team plus a few specials plays based on what the coaches see in UGA...
So great line plan, great execution of great play calls..which includes a few 'wow' plays on top of fundamentally sound chain movers...and few, if any boneheaded plays/turnovers/penalties.
Georgia has by far out-recruited UM (and everyone else in CFB save OSU and Bama) so they have the overall talent advantage. But coaching? Execution? Singular game changing forces (Hutch, Ojabo, Corum)? Let's see...
December 29th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
Georgia's linebackers are scary fast, way faster than anything the B1G has to offer. We have to throw over them and run right at them.
If it's a close game in the 4th quarter, special teams and the Harbaugh vs. Smart matchup both work in our favor.
I think a late Corum screen pass gives us a 27-21 win. Go Blue!
December 29th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
Yes..
I don't think there is a Defensive unit in the B1G that compares to what UM will see w UGA. Not at LB, DL and maybe even at DB (although less certain about that) The talent level on their D is elite.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
Their DBs are good, not great. Cine (former U-M recruit) makes plays, but he isn't super consistent. The CBs can be had. It's a group that is good, but not quite as good as its recruiting rankings.
All my Dawg family and friends have been worried about that secondary all year. And so the Bama game was exactly what they feared.
We have to strike downfield accurately and aggressively. Adam Anderson being kicked off the team hopefully gives Cade that bit more of a margin to be able to make those throws, and hope our good-not-great WRs have a whale of a game.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
You nailed it Putin ... those LBs are scary-fast, and also smart/experienced. Anyone who trains actively knows that speed translates into power, so those guys are going to arrive not just fast but bringing a lot of pain. That's the conundrum of their run D: DL is crazy huge (and fast/agile for their size) and the LBs are often free to come flying into the ball carrier at sprinter speed and just drop him.
Our OL is going to have to be super-precise in both timing and technique to open holes ... and then the combo of Haskins (must run like a bull through that contact) and a now-healthy Corum (who has speed, shiftiness AND power) have to read those blocks and do their best Mike Hart impression of finding a way to get that extra yard or two after contact.
I'd like to think the Corum and Edwards action off tackle and in the flats would be helpful, but not optimistic that they can outrun the UGa LBs to the spot. Hoping we get a great day of blocking from our WRs and TEs. Have to work to the outside a lot in order to get 99 and 95 winded by the 4th quarter....
December 29th, 2021 at 5:14 PM ^
Playing 2 QBs this year can really payoff now for M. We can play looser and with more abandon knowing that if one goes down we have another good one ready to step in.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
One word: Trickeration.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^
Only needed in Nebraska and MSU games.
We lost the MSU game.
Our defense won the Nebraska game.
Let's all get alot of snaps from JJ.
December 29th, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^
Over the past week I have had the number three and UGA turnovers pop into not my head multiple times and a dream a few nights ago with the same number of UGA turnovers. I don’t know who wins but if UGA does turn the ball over three times, my money is on UM. Go Blue! Mow those hedges to the ground!
December 29th, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^
The 'spurts said Michigan has a 2% chance of making the playoffs. I'm surprised they bothered to play the season.
This year's players need 2%er Helmet Stickers.
December 29th, 2021 at 3:38 PM ^
Pretty sure the 2% was for winning the conference, and making the playoffs was 0%.
December 29th, 2021 at 5:01 PM ^
You are correct of course. Zero Percenters it is then. Make it happen Helmet Sticker Team!
December 29th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Just as a football fan, I'm really excited to see our OL go up against UGA's defensive front. Jordan Davis is a monster and I'm curious if we're going to double him or what we're going to do to counter the pressure they get
December 29th, 2021 at 1:55 PM ^
Edwards, Haskins, Corum at 100%, and red zone efficiency.
Edward's emergence has really rounded out this offense. His ability out of the backfield is going to stress their linebackers, and the the coaches will once again game the attention he draws as a receiving threat to open up at least one big play that leads to a score.
Haskins leads the nation in 1st down runs. UGA may bottle up the run game as a whole and keep us under 3 ypc in this game, but Haskins power, balance, and vision will keep the chains moving on enough 3rd/4th down situations to sustain 3-4 scoring drives.
With Haskins as a running mate, its easy to forget that Corum packs a pretty good punch of his own. Now that the ankle is healed, he'll be able to grind out enough yards after after contact to remain productive on 12-15 touches, and will reward us with one huge run that leads to another score.
How far we've come from the first half of the season where it seemed like field goals instead of touchdowns would be the achilles heel that eventually killed (and nearly did against MSU) a special season. We'll cash in with 7 on more of our chances then they do, and take home an 8 point W.
December 29th, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
Crazy to think that in our last three games, the only FG was a third and long at the end of the first half against Maryland and the only other non-touchdown Red Zone trip was the Cade interception against OSU. I very much remember one of our early touchdowns against Maryland (Cade to Schoon from inside the 5) out of a run-heavy set and thinking "seems like we have figured out how to score in the red zone". We've been on fire since! Including Maryland, 15-17 Red Zone trips have been touchdowns with two additional touchdowns from afar against Iowa. Here's to going 5-5 in the red zone on Friday night!