Fee Fi Foe Film: PSU Defense 2021
Previously: PSU Offense
Yesterday we looked over the PSU offense, which has had trouble running the football. Today we look over the PSU defense, which has had troubles stopping the run, but the picture overall is rather muddled. They've pitched a shutout against a B1G opponent, yet let Illinois run it down their throat to death in a different week. What is the real Nittany Lions defense? Let's investigate.
The Film: We're again sticking with the OSU game for this. I know that Ohio State has a vastly superior offense to Michigan (and to just about everyone in America), but our options were limited because of PJ Mustipher's injury, which occurred against Iowa. That leaves us with only the Illinois, Ohio State, and Maryland games as potential usable options, and even though OSU is a better offense than Michigan, I still think they're a better fit than Maryland (and their supremely weak OL) and Illinois, who refused to throw the football to a comical extent. So we're rolling with the Buckeyes, but are going to remain cognizant about the issues in comparability that pop up.
Personnel: Seth's chart.
Personnel: PSU's defensive ends are the strength of the defense, with Arnold Ebiketie on one side and Jesse Luketa on the other, both of whom are great players. Nick Taburton and Smith Vilbert (great name) are the reserve pass rushers who rotate in, but the big dogs get most of the attention. On the contrary, it's the interior defensive line that is the weakness of the defense since the injury of PJ Mustipher. The reason the Mustipher loss is so massive is because while Derrick Tangelo can hang in there as a nose tackle, Dvon Ellies and Coziah Izzard are both horrendous tackles and have emerged as a major weak spot.
At the LB level, PSU runs out returning starters Ellis Brooks and Brandon Smith, pairing them with new starter Curtis Jacobs. Those three rarely rotate, with Charlie Katshir occasionally getting in, but otherwise it's the three LB starters getting almost all of the snaps.
The secondary is similarly stable, with forever Nittany Lion Tariq Castro-Fields starting at one corner spot for the 17th straight year (not exact numbers), while Joey Porter Jr. starts at the other corner position. Daequan Hardy is the nickel and then Johnny Dixon is the fourth corner who rotates in occasionally when they need extra DB bodies. Jaquan Brisker is another star at the SS position, someone who is getting legitimate NFL Draft hype. Ji'Ayir Brown is the other starting safety, getting the start at the FS position. Jon Sutherland and Keaton Ellis are the third and fourth options on the depth chart, but Brisker and Brown get the most snaps by a considerable margin.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Good defense? Or bad defense?]
Base Set: Penn State operates in a base 4-3, which remains pretty consistent in terms of personnel, but the manner in which they line those pieces up varies widely depending on the given play. Brent Pry presented a lot of different defensive alignments to try and disguise pressure against a young QB like CJ Stroud. Here's what I would call the "base set" though:
Four man DL, with both ends standing up. Three LBs at their standard level, two corners shadowing OSU receivers, and then two safeties high, although one is not as high, since PSU (in their Cover 3 alignment) likes to roll one safety down into the box.
On longer down and distance situations, PSU took a defensive lineman off the field and replaced him with a DB, giving you more of a 3-3-5 look:
I'm not sure how much of this was countering a spread passing offense like OSU, but it was the other alignment worth knowing besides their 4-3 front.
Man or zone coverage: PSU runs a base Cover 3, although they integrate Cover 2 as well, which was once the base coverage that Pry used. Both obviously place the Nittany Lions into the zone category more than man.
Pressure: PSU was very blitzy in this one, rushing more than four defenders on 46% of the plays that I tracked. They were very much a rush 4/rush 5 team though, sending a lot of blitzes but very few six or seven man pressure packages like Indiana did last week in FFFF. On the flip side, PSU rushed only three on 10% of the snaps I tracked.
Dangerman: We're going to go with Jesse Luketa, even though there are plenty of good options (Brisker, Ebiketie, Brooks), simply because I felt Luketa had the best game of any PSU defender in the game I saw. He's a hybrid DE/LB who they have optimized as an edge defender. Like most edges, he can rush the passer:
DE #40 to bottom of the DL
Luketa was a key cog in what was a very effective PSU pass rush in this game, forcing Stroud to rush or abort plays like the one above. Here's another example:
DE #40 to top of the DL
But where I thought Luketa was best was in run defense, where he (and Brooks, Ebiketie, and Smith) helped paper over the interior DL weakness to help stymy (for awhile) an excellent OSU rushing attack. Here he is with Brandon Smith making a shoestring stop:
DE #40 to top of the screen
And another instance in the red zone, where Luketa helps make a big stop on third down:
Luketa is one of several high impact pieces on this defense, but his ability to both stop the run and rush the passer, in addition to drop into coverage when needed, makes him one of the most dangerous and versatile players for the Nittany Lions. Hence the Dangerman label.
Overall
So how do we unpack this very confusing Penn State defense? A defense that simultaneously got paved all the way to New Jersey by Illinois, yet had one of the best defensive performances anyone has had against OSU in several seasons only a week later. First and foremost, as previously stated, there are some very good players on this Penn State defense. I think Ellis Brooks is a great linebacker. His run fits were also very sharp:
MLB #13
To that point, much like what we saw with Luketa, the primary reason that the Nittany Lions were not paved off the field by Ohio State like everyone thought they would be was the play of their ends and linebackers, who identified holes and crashed down on the run with a vengeance to make some really nice plays right while the DT levee broke. Here's an example of such a play:
On that play you see Coziah Izzard (DT #99) get totally blown up, but the great play from LB Curtis Jacobs stops a play that had a chance to be huge dead in its tracks. One play later it's Luketa stopping a 2nd & short run:
These back seven + ends were needed to stop the run because, despite a strong stop to the game, the DT vs. OSU OL mismatch was very evident. Both DTs Derrick Tangelo and Dvon Ellies get blown up here, and that allows TreVeyon Henderson to be off to the races, with help from very poor LB play by Brandon Smith as well:
Penn State's defensive front started strong, but was eroded as the game went along. The PSU run defense isn't as bad as it was against Illinois, when the Illini rushed a staggering 67 times for 357 yards (!!). If their run defense was really that bad they would've gone 2-10 this season. That was an aberration, a Frames Janklin specialty where the coaches fall asleep at the wheel (or are focused on the USC job) and don't bother to coach. But the underlying point— that the DTs are a weakness— is true. Michigan has to target them.
That's because I thought PSU's pass rush was very good against what's supposed to be a strong OSU offensive line, generating pressure not just from Luketa but also Arnold Ebiketie:
DE #17 to top of the screen
Stroud is able to complete it there, but the pressure from #17 was coming consistently. Blitzes also worked to good effect to bother Stroud and force the QB to waver and depart from his rhythm:
The coverage also was very good. Ohio State found holes in the PSU zone, but their performance was far from the season normal. The Buckeyes got one big play over the top, but Brent Pry will take that trade off every day. The one big play was a coverage bust by (surprisingly) Brisker (also, notice the effective pass rush *again*):
But outside of that, any OSU passing offense was limited to 5-15 yard pickups on mesh concepts, post routes, or slants to the middle of the field. The corners were good more times than not, with good coverage here from Tariq Castro-Fields:
Penn State has the 7th best defense in the country (per SP+) for a reason: they have fearsome ends, solid LBs (with one playmaker), a star safety, two dependable cover corners, and can feature tricky blitzes, while being coached by a smart coordinator. Erase the Illinois game from your memory, because this shouldn't be a pushover.
What does this mean for Michigan?
The Wolverines need to target the defensive tackles because that's the weakness in the defense. This is not MSU, where the Wolverines should be able to move the ball easily down the field through the air. The pressure will come, the coverage will be good, and Cade McNamara has to be ready to face it. But the DTs are the big question, because if Michigan can move the ball effectively on the ground, everything else opens up. That will require good blocking, particularly on the edges, where the ends will try to crash around to cover up for the interior problems. Hitting a big play or two off the run would help too.
November 12th, 2021 at 9:24 AM ^
Hey Alex, with Penn State being a base Cover 3 team, do you see opportunities for Michigan to hit some soft coverage on the outside? Seems like Michigan is more than willing to throw those quick outs or short hitches against Cover 3.
Those type of plays could be pivotal in a lower scoring, field position type of game.
November 12th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
go blue but holy shit i'm nervous
November 12th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
Yeah, those edge rushers.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
How do ya think Penn State feels with shaky OTs and Hutchinson/Ojabo in their future?
November 12th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
This made me even more nervous
November 12th, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
lol, yeah when you look at their defense the confidence of winning this game goes down a bit.
November 12th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
Penn State has the 7th best defense in the country (per SP+) for a reason: they have fearsome ends, solid LBs (with one playmaker), a star safety, two dependable cover corners, and can feature tricky blitzes, while being coached by a smart coordinator.
Six reasons!
November 12th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
Wisconsin has the 2nd best and we put 38 on them.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:41 PM ^
You gotta wonder about a compulsion to argue so strong, it has to start something with a Monty Python wordplay joke.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
A true gem. Underappreciated because that’s a team that looked terrible at the time.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
The Wisconsin offense cooperated by giving the ball back to us over and over while we figured things out. Don't count on that repeating.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^
Only the first couple of series' were needed to figure things out, though. After that, every time Michigan got the ball, they moved it quite well against UW. Those 38 points were counted as results of legit offensive scoring drives that often went more than 50 yards. Against the 2nd best defense in the country - a defense that has held up as #2 all season long, despite the sorry state of the offense that 'supports' it.
PSU has a really good defense. But they have a glaring hole - the DTs - which is exactly where Michigan prefers to attack. I like UM's chances in this game...
November 12th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
Those all-scarlet OSU uniforms are ass. Stanky, unwashed crotch ass.
November 12th, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
I don't think there is anything notable about OSU's traditional kits. They look generic - like something you'd see in a deodorant commercial that didn't have NFL licensing rights. And I don't mean generic in a Penn St/Alabama/Cleveland Browns way. I mean..they're just blah.
November 12th, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
Fascinating. So Penn State has talent all over the field, but their DTs suck. I've heard this story before, and generally it doesn't go well for the defense when they go opposite another talented team.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
Especially when the opponent wants to stubbornly mash the ball directly to the middle regardless of the strength of the DTs. Part of me wonders whether we will try to keep running to the edges this game, because "they'll never expect it"
November 12th, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
HH, our strength, against their weakness. I will take that matchup. I wanted to see how our TEs will perform but it seems their LBs are good. If they blitz a lot, then I see TE game, one of our strengths, open up some chances. Can be dicey, but there is a good chance we do well.
November 12th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
We NEED Erick All back this week to take advantage in the run game. It would be great to get Corum back as well, so that PSU LBs & S can't key on the inside run.
From what I've heard, All SHOULD be back, but Corum and Edwards are out.
November 12th, 2021 at 10:11 AM ^
Illinois beat Penn State by running the ball.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:26 PM ^
Yeah, I'm surprised he didn't do the Illinois game. The justification was that Illinois refused to throw the ball. Yes, that's because PSU has elite DEs and a great secondary and you can run on them. We refused to throw the ball against Washington because they had similar strengths and weaknesses.
Plus, doesn't Illinois run a power heavy game more similar to Michigan?
I kind of want to know if we can play a game like Illinois and still win.
November 12th, 2021 at 10:12 AM ^
seems like a perfect game for a healthy Corum. Ugh
November 12th, 2021 at 10:20 AM ^
We all want a healthy Corum since he's one hell of a player. But with Penn State's weakness being their DTs and running up the middle, I think it's more of a Haskins kind of game. Corum would be testing those edges where Penn State's strength is
November 12th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
Yeah. But like Alex said, there could be some plays off the edge if Penn St crashes from the end to compensate for the suck at DT. Therefore, Corum or some jet-flavored shit.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
Could this be the week Cade keeps?
November 12th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
I think it's more likely it's a week where the McCarthy package is used more to try and punish crashing ends.
November 12th, 2021 at 6:44 PM ^
Why do I feel like since that is a weakness Michigan won’t exploit it?
we will keep running the insane fake read game where our RBs get ends crashing into their legs for 2 yards.
just have very little faith in our offense to come up with as solid game plan let alone exploit anything.
November 12th, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
So this is gonna a rock fight until the third quarter probably.
A M00P fight if you will.
Whoever wins the 3rd quarter wins game. Gulp
November 12th, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
I imagine this game will look a lot like our game vs Wisconsin in 2019. We had no DT's of use and our offense was too 1 dimensional (if that) to really threaten the Wisky defense. We of course slogged through a disaster that got worse as the game went on and our defense was worn out having to cover up the massive gaping hole in the middle. Penn State is stout outside the DT's but our specialty is literally jamming the ball down a defense's throat and weather conditions seem to indicate that passing may be tough (with rain or wind on the docket).
Penn State will keep it close for a half, Dotson will get a few big plays here and there, but ultimately if we can get 5 yards or so every run up the middle, that Penn State D is gonna fold late in the 3rd or early 4th quarter and we'll eventually run out the clock too fast for Penn State's passing only offense to catch up.
November 12th, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
I completely agree with this. This will be the perfect Harbaugh game, take the points.
Run, Punt, play defense play field position and wait for Penn state to make a mistake.
Then rhetorically bleed them out slowly as the game where’s on and they wear out.
it is gonna be a tough watch but it will be a win.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
I think this is underselling Penn State's offense. This plan only works if Dotson isn't breaking big plays, which he has done in pretty much every game, including against Wisconsin.
That Illinois game is breaking people on their perception of Illinois. It was a fluke. This team was moving the ball consistently and was on their way to a win at Iowa, they were able to move the ball some at OSU, they did enough to sludge fart their way to a win at Wisconsin. This offense is capable. Run, punt, attempt field goals (which are hard to do in bad weather) is also a recipe for losing 17-13. I like that our strength winds up with their weakness, but Michigan can't play this game to beat the Illinois version of PSU and expect to choke the game out against an ineffective offense.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^
I think you're misremembering Wisconsin 2019 (which is understandable).
That wasn't a rock fight where the dam eventually broke. That was a game we lost in the first six minutes because we had a compete system failure all around - the first quarter alone was like 21-0 and coulda been worse. Penn State is solid everywhere except DT. While we can likely exploit that long term, I would be pleasantly surprised it we bltiz them out of Beaver Stadium before halftime.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
I often misremember stuff, especially when I am being critical of something, but I don't recall Michigan having consistent and sustained success running between the tackles recently. We couldn't get to the second level much at all against MSU, Indiana seemed like we were having success but that was using stretch zone rushing concepts (outside of the tackle box). It seems that most of our running success over the last several games have been concentrated schemes that get the ball and blockers to the outside of the field.
November 12th, 2021 at 10:40 AM ^
We are undefeated in games where Cade was given a cyan circle.
Not superstitious at all.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
I say dress Corum just as a threat.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
Bell too.
Freak them out. Maybe Frames will say "F this shit" and leave the game early for USC.
November 12th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^
Seems like a perfect fit for a running QB. Hope JJ gets a fair amount of touches.
November 12th, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^
I think this is a make or break game for Harbaugh...ANOTHER HUGE game on the road that matters...which is why I am nervous and pessimistic
November 12th, 2021 at 4:01 PM ^
Yes exactly!
November 12th, 2021 at 6:48 PM ^
Agree
since when do his teams stand up and beat people when he needs to?
been 7 years of losing Must Have games
hoping he finally get the team over the hump
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